That sums up the past several months. There is no doubt a book there, but binding
Confidentiality Agreements most likely make that a non-starter.
I have just
enough time to offer up some brief thoughts on the likely contours of the 2016 GOP presidential
campaign.
The campaigns most
likely to fold up their tents between now and Iowa: With 15 heavies remaining (sorry Mark Everson), I believe that Senator Rand Paul (R/Lib – Au) and former
Governor Jim Gilmore (R – No VA Car
Tax!) are the most likely to quit the field between now and February 1, 2016
Iowa caucuses. The latter might stick
around until New Hampshire as his, let’s call it, “strategy” appears more
focused on the Granite State. That said,
he might realize that a top 10 showing is not in the cards, and quietly
withdraw at some point during the Holiday Season. The former may decide to focus on his U.S. Senate
seat, so keep a close eye on his early-state polling performances in November
and December. If he can’t consistently cross the five percent threshold in the
weeks prior to Iowa, expect a retreat to Kentucky. One more to watch: Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, wonk-turned-red meat hurler, the former Bayou
Wunderkind needs to break out of the second tier. He selected Iowa as the state that gives him
just enough of a push to get past the carve-out states (Iowa, New Hampshire,
South Carolina, and Nevada).
Unfortunately, for Gov. Jindal, he is facing off against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX/The Second Choice), former
Governor Mike Huckabee, Former
Senator Rick Santorum, and Dr. Ben Carson for the social conservative
vote.
The campaigns most
likely to be done after Iowa: Jindal
if he even makes it to February 1. I
believe that Santorum will lose in the Clash of the Most Recent Iowa Victors Match-up, with Huckabee being the better positioned of the two to do anything in South Carolina. Santorum will wrap up his campaign on
Groundhog Day. Just in time for him to
head home to check on Punxsutawney Phil.
The campaigns most
likely to be finished after New Hampshire:
Gilmore if he is still in the race.
Former New York Governor George
Pataki will likely receive his last hurrah of the primary season in
NH. Either former Governor Chris Christie or Governor John
Kasich will be on life-support or decently positioned as the
Bush/Rubio alternative after New Hampshire.
Senator Lindsey Graham may opt for a strategic withdrawal and
endorsement of another hawk prior to his home-state primary.
So who is a lock to
be an active candidate for the South Carolina primary? Former Governor Jeb Bush, Carson, Cruz,
business executive Carly Fiorina,
probably Huckabee, either Christie or Kasich, Senator Marco Rubio, and businessman Donald
Trump.
What about March? I
think the short-term calendar shapes up nicely for Cruz. I expect a Huckabee exit as well as a slow
Carson (and slower Trump) fade (all to the benefit of Cruz) and that Bush will
struggle.
Beyond that, I think Cruz and Rubio are well situated to go
deep. Trump and Carson could accrue a
significant number of delegates, with Fiorina performing well enough to warrant
serious consideration as a VP pick. If this
were a Democratic primary, I would give Kasich better odds as a dark-horse
candidate. As it is not, I think he
might emerge as the primary Establishment alternative to Rubio, but will have
neither the resources nor the skills to compete with either Senator Cruz or
Senator Rubio.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.