For Those Who Care: A HoCo Campaign 2018 Update

Truth be whispered, what the ancient Greeks called “dusthumía” is attempting to gut-punch this author, repeatedly, this morning.  Not that corres-depondence (I see what I did there) equates to bad writing. This essayist is not inclined to punish the readership with twaddle, Heaven forfend!

Nope, just need to keep pressing some keys.  Besides, fuck the ancient Greeks. Couldn’t even be bothered to develop a rudimentary Metro system. If they did, I reckon Pheidippides would still be alive today.

Campaign News:

County Exec Allan Kittleman announced, to the shock of none and the dismay of several, his bid for re-election.  Meanwhile, a straw man sets up another straw man (See: Greg Fox).  Of course, I shouldn’t be too hard on Mr. Fox.  Depending on who emerges out of CC 5, he might be remembered as the Cincinnatus of West HoCo. But I seem to have shifted to the Romans, so let me get back on track.

CC3 is looking like an embarrassment of riches on the Democratic side, with Christiana Mercer Rigby already in the race and Steve Hunt poised to enter the fray very soon.  Should be an engaging primary in the months ahead.

CC4.  As attentive readers know, this is my home district.  Byron Macfarlane recently announced his candidacy. If a poll was commissioned tomorrow, there is no doubt in my mind that he would be the front-runner in the Democratic field by a healthy double-digit margin.  That is not to say that Deb Jung (the other D in CC 4 who has filed to date) is a slouch, she is not.  That is to say that Byron is well-known with a significant reservoir of support throughout the County in general and in District 4 specifically. 

State’s Attorney:  Rich Gibson.  By a country mile.  His website can be found here: http://richgibson.net/

Of course, the Band Known as Team 13 re-filed together.  Such a lovely place, such a lovely slate (with apologies to Mr. Henley, Mr. Frey, and sure, Mr. Felder). 

So what about D12?  Stay tuned…wait…not yet.

Oh yes, I believe the Columbia Democratic Club is having an important meeting tonight.  To those who ask, “Will you be there?” I reply, “Is there an open bar?”  If there are caipirinhas, I am all in. But I have now drifted from Greece to Rome to California to Brazil, so I should stop here.

Stay tuned, as more will follow (?)

Fresh Blood: 2020

First, a hand-drawn infographic!

Ok, I may not have captured everyone.  And some were favorite sons (alas, no daughters) in the earlier cycles, but bear with me.

This is a list of all of the Democratic candidates for President since 1952 who 1) lost once and 2) ran again.  A circle means they were the nominee in that cycle.

Some names not on this list: every Democrat elected to the Presidency since 1960 with one exception.

1) John F. Kennedy.  First time presidential candidate in '60.  Tried (unsuccessfully) to get on the national ticket with Stevenson as the VP pick in '56.  Won the nomination and General Election.
2) Jimmy Carter.  First time presidential candidate in '76.  Tried (unsuccessfully) to get on the national ticket with McGovern as the VP pick in '72.  Won the nomination and General Election.
3) Bill Clinton.  First time presidential candidate in '92.  Thought about it in '88 but passed.  Won the nomination and General Election, twice.
4) Barack Obama.  First time presidential candidate in '08.  Won the nomination and General Election, twice.

LBJ is on the list, and he did win on his own in '64 (against Goldwater, not the strongest opponent the GOP could have fielded that cycle).  That said, he lost the bid for the nomination in '60, came to the office only on the passing of JFK, and was clearly in for a tough battle for the nomination in '68 when he famously declared that he would neither seek, nor accept the nomination of the Democratic Party for President.

And of course there were those who lost on a national ticket as a VP or VP candidate and who ran for the Presidency later...and lost again (Muskie in '68 and '72 respectively, Shriver in '72 and '76 respectively, Lieberman in '00 and '04 respectively).  Mondale, of course, won in '76 with Carter (when he passed on the race himself, citing a lack of "fire in the belly") but lost in his own bid in '84.  Al Gore and Joe Biden have already been accounted for in this chart.

So...while the past is not always prologue...I would like to see some new names come to the fore for the Democratic Party in 2020.  History has not been kind to the "not one-and-done" club. You have to admit, we have run (and won with) some excellent first-timers.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Ben Carson’s Personal “Poverty of Spirit”

First, let’s start with what is known.  Dr. Ben Carson is a serial prevaricator.  Everything he utters must first pass through that lens.  Distrust and verify.   The fact that he stands 13^th in the line of succession would, normally, be cause for trepidation…but it’s just another day in Trump-occupied America.

So this fabulist who recently said that “poverty to a large extent is also a state of mind” is now helming the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).  And what is going on with the Administration and community development and housing these days? Well, according to Jose DelReal of The Washington Post:

The Trump administration's 2018 budget blueprint, unveiled Tuesday, would cut more than $6 billion from HUD's budget. The cuts would end popular grants that facilitate first-time home ownership and revitalize economically distressed communities, including the Community Development Block Grant. The budget would also cut billions of dollars in funding for public housing support, gutting dollars used to fund big-ticket repairs at public housing developments around the country.

How precisely are these proposals going to help folks get a leg up?  How will denying people living at the margins, from check to check, opportunities for advancement help bring about an “Opportunity Society” that sometime-Trump enthusiast and disgraced former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich used to bloviate about?

Allow me to shift format and go open-letter. Let’s talk Michiganian to Michiganian here, Doc. I know we grew up in different eras and in different circumstances.  But we both know something about being of the working class and having some tough times.  Your family had to rely on food stamps for a while, ours needed government assistance too.  You and I both know that all it takes is one bad break to make a precarious situation far worse.  Your family did well enough where you could get a “new Chrysler” according to one of your books.  Good for you.  Of course, what if someone in your family had come down with a serious illness? What then?  I am guessing you might have wanted a strong safety net in place…just in case.  

Many hard-working folks who live, and not just talk about, the virtues of self-reliance fall through the cracks.  So stop peddling your bullshit about “creating dependency” when you are part of an Administration that seems determined to take a hacksaw and slice off several rungs of the “ladder of opportunity” of which you speak.

Further, how dare your allies cloak your mealy mouthed nonsense under the guise of “faith,” as your sketchy pal Armstrong Williams did.  Side note:  how much money did Williams make promoting No Child Left Behind in that ethically dubious side deal that got him canned?  

So, Doctor, you apparently interpret the book of Genesis literally but what about all of the other Bible verses that talk about helping the poor…in Proverbs?  In Acts? In Matthew? In Luke? In Isaiah? Etc...I may not share your religion, but I do know that picking and choosing which verses to believe and which to ignore is a big “no no” in many Christian denominations.

I don’t know you.  I can’t speak to what is truly in your head or heart.  I can only assess your thinking based on your words and deeds. Based on those, it appears as though the true poverty in spirit can be found within your own soul, Doctor Carson.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Annapolis Quest: New 2018 MD Gov Poll - a Dissection

From the Desk of S. MacCune: Amateur Harbor Master

A new poll was released regarding the 2018 Maryland Gubernatorial contest – a proverbial “snapshot” of a race which is simultaneously embryonic yet well underway.   Information can be found here:

https://marylandmattersblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/22/poll-shows-gansler-faring-better-against-hogan-than-other-dems/

Now, the regular author of this blog, being a former political pollster (and God knows he doesn’t keep that a secret) is generally loathe to discuss the work of other pollsters.  Any criticisms, well-founded or otherwise, tend to come across as 2000s-era Gore Vidal-esque sneering.  Which is why he asked me to use my fresh yet bleary eyes to cover this critical non-story.  Which is an awesome use of my precious time.  

I know Mr. Considerations leans in the direction of Mr. Jealous, Sen. Madaleno, or Del. McIntosh (with the former two being the most likely to be on the June 2018 primary election ballot as candidates for Governor).  Obviously, my unfettered neutrality is precisely what this blog needs. 

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever): Study Design & Methodology

•      The Sample Size/Margin of Error (as noted in the story)
•    The Sample Composition (by Party ID, etc…)
•    The Sample Selection Process (RDD, Voter lists, etc…)
•    The Data Collection Methodology (telephone (live interviewer), telephone (no live interviewer, IVR, etc…), online, etc…)

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever):  Findings

•     Intensity of Feeling on the Favorable/Unfavorable ratings (Strong/Somewhat)
•      Gradations on the ballot tests (definitely/probably/lean)
•      If the ballot tests released are initial/cold ballot tests…or if those numbers followed batteries of questions about the actual/prospective candidates.

What I found interesting is that Gansler, considering his statewide profile, was not *that* much better known compared to some of his likely rivals for the Democratic nomination. 

Does he lead the D field? Sure, just like Ted Kennedy did in early ’84 match-ups for President (he didn’t run that cycle), Joe Lieberman in early ’04 surveys (he ran but finished poorly), and Rudy Giuliani (on the R side) in early ’08 surveys (see note on Lieberman).   It’s a Name ID advantage but it is far from insurmountable.

Among registered D’s, Gansler’s Name ID is +16 over the next closest individual tested (Jealous) but his Favorability rating is only 11 points higher, while his Unfavs are 5 points higher than Jealous.  His Fav/Unfav ratio is just about 5:1, which is decent, but Jealous is at 7:1 Fav/Unfav, while Delaney is @ 10:1 (Baker and Kamenetz are both in the 3:1/4:1 range).

On the ballot test, Gansler at -9 is right around where a Generic D places against Hogan (-10).  Assuming a Margin of Error in the +/- 5% zone, at the 95% level of confidence, Delaney (-13), Baker (-14), Kamenetz (-15), and Jealous (-16) are all within striking distance of Gansler. 

Now, if Gansler were up, tied, or in the low single digits behind Hogan, that would be news.  But he is - at most- only slightly ahead of the peloton.  And most of the course is ahead of the field.

Stay tuned as, etc…

Left of Center and Sound of Mind

One benefit of the long slog that is my daily three-hour commute to and from our Nation’s Capital is that I have found additional time to read. At least on the Metro.  Page-turning is oddly frowned upon whilst behind the wheel, thundering down Randolph Road.  Yet another tell-tale sign of incipient fascism.

Of course, the automotive leg of the journey carries with it certain advantages as well.  Observing the flora and fauna that inhabit Arcola Avenue, especially in the spring-time, has a restorative impact.  The other morning, I watched a small fox family traipse across the road before scurrying off into the near-by woods.  All with NPR or Jazz and Justice on in the background, it creates the pleasant illusion of advanced civilization.

If nothing else, it serves as an occasion to not focus on the appalling hypocrisies and moral deficiencies of those “leaders” and others who cower on the Right or Radical Center, as Kevin Phillips might refer to the latter group, with their inability to see that the current occupation of the White House is no Second Coming of Reagan.  Even with his own flaws, which were considerable, our 40^th President was north of the Mendoza line when it came to sanity.  Personally, I find that an important attribute in American Presidents, in the nuclear age.  Others may disagree.

So I look forward to cracking upon my latest acquisition, A Struggle for Power: The American Revolution by Theodore Draper, which I picked up yesterday at Second Story Books, near DuPont Circle.  In it, Draper re-evaluates the causes of the Revolutionary War by employing a realpolitik lens that includes, but transcends, ideological yearnings for Liberty and Freedom.  By acknowledging that it was a power struggle due to other, grounded political and economic reasons, he re-frames the rationale for our War of Independence.  I am very much looking forward to delving into it.

On an (unrelated?) note, Progressive HoCo is holding their kick-off meeting on Sunday, May 21.  According to their website (http://www.progressivemaryland.org/progressive_maryland_weekly_memo_for_may_15_21) it will be at: “3 p.m. at the Savage Branch of Howard County Library, 9525 Durness Lane, Laurel 20723. Please contact Dave Bazell at daveb13704@gmail.com for more information.”

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Language Choices and the Democratic Party

So back when I was working for The Other Side, I was amongst those who spent a great deal of time thinking about, and providing counsel on, political language.  One of my signature moves, which will not be immortalized via statue, was advising candidates and organizations to embrace “relief” instead of “reform.”  My rationale was that many voters hear “tax reform” as a “tax shift” which might hose them; whereas relief meant tax cuts and more money in their pockets, which unsurprisingly evoked a positive visceral response.  Plop Plop, Fizz Fizz.  

I bring this up because I was listening to the latest episode of Elevate Maryland, featuring Special Guest Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary (D-MD).  She raised the concern that Democrats just weren’t as proficient at message framing compared to Republicans.  Two points:

1)      She is right.

2)      It is refreshing to hear policymakers speaking candidly, accessibly, and authentically.  It is clear that Delegate Atterbeary has not “gone Annapolis” (note: for residents of the other 49 states, fill in your state capital here).  Far too many people, once elected to public office, start adopting an arcane patois that makes them sound like John Kerry on Quaaludes.   

I have often argued that Democrats, in many swing districts, can win by employing language consistent with a Progressive/Populist positioning.  That pairing, again not everywhere but in many competitive districts, constitutes a functional majority.  This does not mean having to adopt “conservative” stances in order to be considered populist; nor does it mean sounding like a Jill Stein acolyte. It means coming across like a down-to-earth, thoughtful human being who isn’t afraid to fight in the defense of expanding the sphere of liberty for working and middle class folks.

Too often, Democrats get caught up in schismatic foolishness. This happens frequently with parties in the center-left to the left.  It happened with Labour in the UK in the 70s and early 80s, which led to the rise of the SDP on their immediate right and to the pull of the Militant Tendency on their left. Of course, these fractures are more likely to occur because Labor then, and the Democrats now, are Big Tent-oriented.  Beyond that, the widespread adoption of information and communication technology platforms, the existence of a 24-hour news cycle, and the utilization of the Internet and social media, have all served to elevate mass awareness of our internecine squabbles.  This creates branding challenges, but I digress.

My point is this, if the Democratic Party wishes to break the Republican’s precarious grip on swingable center constituencies, they need to articulate a clear and compelling set of animating values and organizing principles. Let’s call it an American Deal (or a Maryland Deal, if you want to focus it locally).  Does it sound like a document that was released in ’94.  Yep.  Did it work?  Hell yeah it did. The difference will be in the content, with the faux populism of the Contract with America replaced by a legitimate People-First orientation of an American Deal.

The first step is to consider the values, the policies that stem from those values, and the optimal language to use when discussing both the values and policies. 

It really isn’t that difficult.

Again, great interview Delegate Atterbeary!  Way to work for the folks in the Fightin’ 13^th!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

   

The FEZ Post: Foose, Elevate, and Zen

When asked about an obstreperous yet vacuous back-bencher, I believe it was former British PM Sir Anthony Eden who opined, “I don’t think much of him, alas, too frequently.”

Shifting from the intrigues of Westminster in the ‘50s to Howard County of today, Renee Foose, of course, is the answer to what happens when an uncontrollable Superintendent meets up with an unyielding Board.

Careful readers of this blog will know that this author generally believes the Reform Five to be more in the right when it comes to matters facing HCPSS.  That said, the recent traditional local media coverage is making it appear as though we are dealing with a “she said/they said” controversy…school yard fractiousness where the combatants are roughly equivalent in their degree of wrong, or short-sighted-ness, or self-interested-ness, etc…

The reality, from a communications perspective, is that Foose and her allies have been punching above their weight in terms of advancing her “case.”  Her opponents, quite simply, are not as cohesive as they could and should be.  The election results of 2016 should have been seen as a massive repudiation of the Foose regime.  A different Superintendent might have taken the hint and resigned, or opted to find a way to collaborate with the new Board.  Nay, not Ms. Foose.  By choosing to dig in her heels and snipe away, she opted to become an Obstacle, seemingly more intent on career preservation and on retaining whatever control she has over the day-to-day operations of the school system.  A different regulatory structure could have provided a faster remedy to this impasse, alas, it was not acted upon by our good friends in Annapolis.  So, we find ourselves in the mire.

It is unfortunate that we rely so heavily on citizen journalists and other interested parties to get the story right.  Such is the reality of our modern era, with traditional media often having neither the resources nor the institutional memory to provide its consumers with the depth of coverage such a story requires.

Speaking of citizen journalism, this blog would be remiss if we did not single out the new podcast offered up by HoCo’s own Action Squad:  Candace Dodson Reed and Tom Coale, Elevate Maryland (elevatemdpodcast.com).  While I enjoy the interview and discussion format, and they landed two interesting guests for the first two shows, I would definitely like to hear more of their thoughts on various state and local issues.  Perhaps the biweekly nature (and length) of the podcast necessitates the coverage of more topics within a relatively short span of time, but I would love if they could drill down on certain issues and share more of their expertise and insights.  Overall, nicely done!

Finally, on a sadder note, this blog would like to recognize the passing of Robert Pirsig, author of “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.”  I recall reading his book in its entirety over a series of Metro rides, which is precisely the wrong environment to consume this work.  An attempt to reconcile our technologically-driven society with a personal commitment to a higher expression of human values, which he summed up through his perspectives on Quality as a metaphysical concept, one felt the struggle of the protagonist as he tries to live authentically, and meaningfully, in a world that doesn’t necessarily appreciate his worldview.  His ability to locate the spiritual within the mechanistic, when seen through the lens of mindful action and a self-perfecting impulse, helped lead to the creation of this classic work.  He shall be missed.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.