Disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only. While reading this post, don't operate heavy machinery.
The Spartan Considerations Editorial Board recently met up
to review the Howard County Board of Education primary election campaign. Over the course of a long yet not entirely
leisurely lunch, the present author expressed his personal views regarding the
likely outcome/order of finish. I will
now share with you, dear reader, those thoughts (heavily abridged, of
course).
1.
Vicky Cutroneo.
Given the breadth and depth of her support county-wide, it is difficult
to envision Cutroneo not finishing first.
It would be a major shock if she placed anything less than a very strong
second.
2.
Robert Wayne Miller. Building up from his 2016 campaign and having
earned a spot on the Apple Ballot, I can see him finishing as high as second
and as low as fourth, but a top three position seems most likely.
3.
Sabina Taj.
Could finish as high as second or as low as fifth, the proverbial smart
money is on a top four showing.
4.
Bob Glascock.
Well-known in education circles and on the Apple Ballot, he is a bit of
a wild-card electorally. Odds favor a 3rd,
4th, or 5th place showing, with the 4 spot being a likely
outcome.
I suspect there will be a vote gap between positions 1 and
2. I deem it likely that the candidates
in the second, third, and fourth slots will be clustered relatively closely
together. I think there will be another
double space margin between the 4th and 5th place
candidate, who will be…
5.
Jen Mallo.
She could surprise and come in as high as third…or as low as 6th
or 7th (on a bad day). Having
run thousands of simulations on my abacus, fifth seems about right.
…and then a small vote chasm will follow…
6.
This is where it starts to get tricky, as so
much will depend on Election Day turnout. Last minute shenanigans, bad weather,
all kind of variables can have an impact on the order of finish. I will go with Danny Mackey for the 6th
position. He has been running a decent
campaign and, somewhat like Cutroneo (albeit to a considerably lesser extent)
has appeared to pull together a relatively broad-based coalition. It would not surprise me if he placed as high
as 5th but he could also finish 9th.
7.
Saif Rehman.
Visible and well-funded. It is
challenging to see him securing anything higher than 6th, but he
could, like Mackey, end up in 9th and out of the running. That said,
it is highly likely that he will get winnowed in and earn a spot on the General
Election Ballot.
8.
Chao Wu.
Could finish in 6th place, could wind up in 10th. Total wild card. I think he is the candidate
most on the bubble, but if turnout is low (meaning committed, high-propensity,
high information voters comprise a larger share of the electorate), he could
fare better than 8th.
Out of the running?
9.
Mavourene Robinson. My thoughts on her candidacy and its
shortcomings are well-known. Anyone who embraces the principles of social
justice should have serious concerns about what she might bring to the table if
elected to the Board of Education. But,
in the interest of having a light-hearted, and not hard-hearted, tone, let’s
get back to predictions. On a good day
for her campaign, she could place 7th. Her base might carry her to a top 8 finish,
but she hasn’t been as visible as Rehman, Mackey, or Wu. A low-turnout election
might aid her candidacy, but as of this writing, I don’t see her campaign moving
onto the General Election.
10. Anita
Pandey. In the tradition of declaring my
interest, I cast my ballot on the first day of Early Voting for the three
Spartan Tendency-endorsed candidates (Taj, Mallo, and Miller) and I decided to
vote for a fourth person, Pandey. While
I have found her background impressive and her responses to the candidate
questionnaires generally solid on the issues, she has been a bit uneven in
terms of her forum appearances. This was a strategic vote. If my assumptions are correct, there won’t be
a ton of votes separating 8th, 9th, and 10th
places. If I can help ensure that a more
problematic candidate won’t appear on the General Election ballot, that would
be excellent. I could have voted for
Glascock, but quite frankly, he shouldn’t need my vote in light of his Apple
Ballot endorsement. Someone at the
margins, like Pandey most likely is, could use the fourth vote. That said, a best case scenario for her
candidacy is probably 8th. As
it stands today, 10th feels about right but I am glad to have voted
for her. I hope she is still running in
the General Election.
11. Carleen
Pena. Probably the most unlikely of the
active candidates to grab a top 8 position. Just hasn’t been as visible as most
of the others. She also delivered some
spotty performances at candidate forums.
Maybe a 5% chance of finishing 8th but I am just not seeing a
path to the General Election for Pena.
12. and
13. The three-named invisible
candidates. Timothy Hodgson Hamilton and
Christopher Michael Hilfiger. You pick which one comes out ahead of the other,
it doesn’t matter. They will both finish far behind whoever places 11th.
In solidarity.
