Dumb Money, Smart Money

In these times, fundraising disparities are less dispositive than they once were.

For example, social media is a great equalizer in terms of a voter outreach and engagement mechanism.  And posting stellar content on a social media platform costs far less than a television ad buy.  Oh GRPs, remember the good old days…?

With that in mind, I perused the most recent campaign finance reports.  Now, 80% of you will understand that I am wearing my advocate cap atop my analyst chapeau.  For the other 20%, I will try to type slowly so you can keep up.

The Senate 9 news is encouraging.  Katie Fry Hester had a stellar fundraising period, where she outraised the incumbent by a staggering 26:1 margin ($71,075 compared to $2,685 for Bates).  I know some folks are skeptical about this as a pick-up opportunity.  Frankly, I thought not so long ago that this district wouldn’t be competitive until 2022 and possibly 2026.  That said, we are seeing a confluence of events (the right candidate at the right time) which has me believing that Hester might be the one to send Bates packing. It would likely be by the narrowest of margins (say, 51% - 49%) but there is a path.  The demographics are challenging but Hester having a $24,000 Cash-On-Hand advantage is helpful.  With strong messaging (compelling messaging drives turnout, this is Campaign 101 folks…) Hester can pull off the upset.  

In the First County Council District, I keep hearing about a massive enthusiasm deficit afflicting the Kathuria effort.  Although he has – at present - an overall fundraising advantage ($14,476 CoH compared to $2,074 for Liz Walsh), those numbers are deceptive.  First, Walsh outraised Kathuria in the most recent reporting period ($4,038 to $3,420).  Second, she gained considerable earned media attention with her victory in the Democratic primary.  Third, district demographics favor the Democratic nominee.  Fourth, her positioning re: development is more in line with many Democrats, and a sizable contingent of Unaffiliateds and Republicans, compared to the incumbent.  Her narrative is far more likely to resonate with voters in the First.  Walsh is well-poised to win the General Election with at least 55% of the vote.

District 4.  In a most vivid example of “so-what” news, Lisa Kim outraised Deb Jung in the most recent reporting period ($9,515 to $6,846).  Jung holds a slight advantage overall, with $6,632 CoH compared to $4,453 for Kim.  The Republican County Council nominee’s campaign is a zombie on cracked wooden stilts.  Go ahead, feel free to use that logo.  No charge. Jung will win with at least 60% of the vote.

District 9B.  Who raises zero dollars in a reporting period?  Bob Flanagan.  Very odd.  Meanwhile, Courtney Watson’s moderate Democratic positioning aligns quite well with the 9B electorate.  She and Flanagan are, essentially, neck-and-neck regarding CoH numbers ($53,727 for Watson; $54,115 for Flanagan).  The climate is much better for the Democratic nominee in this district compared to how it was in 2014.  Watson to win with 52%.

County Executive.  I’ve seen Kittleman’s ads, they haven’t blown me away but I am clearly not in his target audience.  He figures if he can peel off 25% of the Democratic vote while capturing Independents by an 8 – 5 margin, that will be sufficient to re-elect him (narrowly), even with slightly depressed GOP turnout (assuming he pulls in @95% of that bloc).  Ball’s campaign has been (to date) quiet in the legacy media, but quite active with social media.  They appear to be savings resources for the Long Sprint that starts after Labor Day.  While Kittleman holds a sizable CoH advantage ($689K - $390K), it is important to note momentum.  Ball outraised Kittleman by a significant margin in the last reporting period, $172K - $98K.  Moreover, given the national and state political climate, you have to ask yourself…whose place would you rather be in?  Demographically, there is more upside to Ball’s potential electorate…despite of any advantages one might attach to Kittleman’s incumbency.  Even with what appears to be a popular GOP Governor on the ballot, it is tough to see Kittleman garnering more than 52% of the vote, while Ball could break 55% with favorable winds. As much as I enjoy discussing the air game, I have noted that the Ball campaign’s ground game appears quite formidable. Kittleman is still spending too much time talking about the past; his campaign is spending money…but how effective is his messaging?  Putting on my prognostication bucket hat, this race remains too-close-to-call.

On the gubernatorial front, well, I have seen statewide margins of 18 points dissipate over the course of three weeks.  Yes, weak poll numbers can impede fundraising, which can interfere with messaging/GOTV efforts…and the vicious circle spins on.  That said, I think Jealous enjoys solid grassroots support and has plenty of time to make up ground.  Hogan still has an R next to his name, which drops a hard ceiling on his noggin. Yes, some Ds have defected…and this will be remembered.  That said, with Trump redefining/defiling the Republican brand, no Maryland R running in a swing constituency will emerge from this cycle unscathed.  Some GOPers may win, but many will curse Trump’s name from the ashes of their once promising political careers.  Outlook: don't believe the naysayers...Jealous has a hard base of at least 45%.  This will end up being a close one.  At present: too early to make a call.   

In solidarity.

Random Political Thoughts

Messaging

Regardless of who the Republicans nominate for president in 2020, I keep thinking that the simple narrative of “Enough!” might have resonance with Democrats and Independents alike.  Of course, we can debate what happens after “Enough!” but the malignancy known as “Trumpism” needs to end.

Hypocrisy Watch

I love how defenders of this Administration are pointing to the strength of the economy as a reason for standing by Trump as they whistle past the graveyard.  By the same logic, wouldn’t these folks now be singing the praises of Bill Clinton (remember him?  The guy they tried to remove from office despite the “roaring economy?”). Of course such Republicans have been exposed as hypocrites many times over. 

Courage?

It was just over 30 years ago that the Republican-controlled Senate overrode President Reagan’s veto of the Comprehensive Anti-Apartheid Act.  Thirty-one Senate Republicans joined all 47 Democrats in a powerful and justified rebuke of Reagan’s assertion of an expansive Executive authority to conduct foreign policy as he saw fit with regards to the criminal and racist South African regime. I wonder how many Senate Republicans today would shut down the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination based on the illegitimacy of the current Administration.

Establishment Clause

A recently published book explored the Christian supremacist proclivities of our current Vice President.  Pence, presumably not as deranged as the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania, is nonetheless problematic in his own way.  I don’t believe he understands that our Constitution in general, and the First Amendment specifically, was designed to work regardless if the nation is 99% Christian, Muslim, Jewish, Buddhist, Hindu, agnostic, atheist, or what have you.  Should he become our Chief Magistrate, Americans will need to become even more vigilant for attempts to impose forms of religious tyranny on our Republic.    

In solidarity.

A Voice from the West

While I don’t have a ton of GOP sources in West HoCo, I am fortunate to know Clive Hammerjets*.

Clive, while not a Republican himself, could best be described as possessing a set of beliefs that are unobjectionable in more conservative circles, somewhat akin to Jack’s from Oscar Wilde’s “The Importance of Being Earnest,” as revealed in his conversation with Lady Bracknell:

LADY BRACKNELL.  …What are your politics?

JACK.    Well, I’m afraid I really have none.    I’m a liberal unionist.

LADY BRACKNELL.  Oh, they count as Tories.  They dine with us, or come in the evening, at any rate.  Now to minor matters…

Clive knows a number of Republicans from out there, socially, and his take-away is that more than a few local GOP activists are viewing 2018 as a lost cause – and are taking the opportunity to look out for their own personal/political interests.  They may say the right things in public, or to each other’s faces, but behind closed doors (and after a pop or two) they are disparaging certain Republican office-holders/seekers (so much for Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment, eh?) and are focused on calculating what is best for them, as individuals, in 2018, 2022 and beyond.

Does this mean that a significant percentage of Novotny voters – eager for change - might take a pass on casting a ballot for Senator Bates in November?  The District 5 primary got ugly, and some Republicans are not thrilled at the prospect of Yungmann being their standard-bearer on the Council (much less him holding onto the seat for four years…or longer).  Can Ziegler and Bolen ride a Blue Wave over Kittleman and Miller in 9A? Flanagan’s primary GOTV operation looked creaky, and the smart money is on Watson to knock him out in 9B.    

Of course Republicans have demonstrated a tendency to be fissiparous in the past…but they usually fall in line for General Elections.  I am not 100% certain this will be the case across the board in HoCo in 2018.  This means strong candidates such as Katie Fry Hester, China Williams and the aforementioned Natalie Ziegler, Steven Bolen, and Courtney Watson are operating within a climate favorable for Democrats this cycle.  We must make the most of these opportunities.  Hard work and compelling messaging are vital success components.  And a divided, Trump-led GOP definitely helps.

Coming up soon: we will turn to the East for another look at District One.

In solidarity.

* Possibly not his (or her) real name.