Sunday, May 22, 2016

National Mottos and Hard Numbers

There is an isolated society in Bolivia, numbering no more than 600 souls, who dwell three hours away from Riberalta when the roads are passable, six when they aren’t.  They believe that we die every night, during our dreams, and we awaken into a parallel universe where everything appears to be a continuation of the same existence.  It is our dogged persistence of memory, they claim, that makes it seem as though this continual passing and renewal is nothing more than a short recess from our consciousness from the same life we had the day before.

Every so often, especially when tumultuous events occur, it feels as though they might be onto something.  Let the physicists & theologians sort this out.  God help us if the mathematicians get involved though.  This surly bunch of data-set grinders will bog the entire process down.

But mathematics does have its uses.  For example, as of this writing, it tells us that the itinerant Stateswoman, aka the One True Sage of Chappaqua, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton stands at the precipice of claiming the Democratic nomination for the American Presidency.  The New York Times delegate tracker says she has 1,768 pledged delegates along with 525 unpledged (aka Super-Boss) delegates.  Employing a simple mathematical function, that works out to 2,293…or 96.2% of the total number of delegates required for a simple majority at the Democratic Convention.        

With 930 delegates remaining up-for-grabs, it is likely that she will far exceed the 90 delegates she needs to hit the magic number of 2,383.  Barring a cataclysmic shift in the tectonic plates that undergird our politics in 2016 anno Domini, it is extremely unlikely that her only remaining foe, the at-times blustery Senator Bernard "Bernie" Sanders will win enough of the pledged delegates and sway enough of the unpledged delegates to wrest the nomination away from the former FLOTUS/Senator/Secretary of State.

How high a hurdle?  Sanders would need to register huge wins in states like California and New Jersey, blow-out landslide margins north of 70%, in order to stand a chance of significantly diminishing his pledged delegate deficit (currently 274 delegates).  Beyond that, he would need to convince the Establishment Democrats that he would not be tossed like dry maple tree branches into the industrial wood chipper that is the Trump Attack Machine.  The safe money, for these solons and activists, is to stay the course with Hillary, even if she stumbles badly on June 7…which appears unlikely.

I appreciate the hard-fought effort against long odds.  I think former Ohio State Senator Nina Turner, in particular, has been an excellent Sanders surrogate and, contrary to the opinions of some, has a future in electoral politics, if she chooses that path.  I think his movement will live on.

However, as each day passes, the parallel universe options for the Sanders presidential campaign all appear to be similar, with June 15, 2016 being the effective end of the road.  They get this in certain parts of Bolivia...but will Sanders and Company?

Stay tuned, as more will follow. 

1 comment: