Electoral Relevance: Senate District 12 Edition

Before Senator Ed Kasemeyer made his public announcement that he would not seek re-election, this blog commented on his attenuated electoral standing.  There was already a sense that his connection to the local activists wasn’t as strong as it once was.  This is not an atypical pattern… sometimes even serious legislators, in the twilight of their careers, simply opt to focus on different aspects of the job.  The zeal for campaigning wanes as the public servant throws herself or himself into committee work.  No value judgment here, just a recognition that Kasemeyer’s career arc is a familiar one.

It is when they endorse a would-be successor that the situation rises to the level of Vaguely Interesting.   How much support can they truly provide another candidate?  The answer is that it depends on how many voters such individuals can move in the “right direction.”  Remember: all of the resources put into political campaigns (organization, money, reputational capital, etc…) are ultimately geared towards the One True Currency in a Republic (as it determines who wins and who loses): Votes. 

There are precious few old-school machines these days, and Ed Kasemeyer is no Richard J. Daley.  How many voters will be moved by his apparently imminent public backing of Mary Kay Sigaty?  I would argue very few.  Of course, in a close election, when the battle is presumably being waged between the 40 yard lines, a few votes takes on greater importance. 

That said, his endorsement was relatively late-in-the-game (although still enough time for a direct mail piece and for door-to-door communications) and, perhaps more importantly, it probably serves to galvanize progressive support for Dr. Clarence Lam.  Kasemeyer’s poor handling of HB1299 (the manner of electing Howard County Board of Education members) is indicative of someone who has lost touch with the base.  In politics, for every action, there might not be a truly equal reaction…but there is an opposite one.  I think a certain number of undecided voters are going to view the Kasemeyer endorsement in a negative light, these voters will largely shift to Lam while some will not cast a ballot for Senate District 12.  In short, Sigaty may pick up a handful of votes because of this endorsement, but she will also lose some.  

Frankly, Kasemeyer's best move from a “legacy” perspective (putting aside his prior legislative accomplishments) would have been to stay on the sidelines, endorse no one, and let the voters choose his successor.  By wading into this contest, he is further demonstrating a lack of situational awareness.  Like a late-career Willie Mays, some folks just don’t know when to quit.

In solidarity.