Before Senator Ed Kasemeyer made his public announcement
that he would not seek re-election, this blog commented on his attenuated
electoral standing. There was already a
sense that his connection to the local activists wasn’t as strong as it once
was. This is not an atypical pattern… sometimes
even serious legislators, in the twilight of their careers, simply opt to focus
on different aspects of the job. The
zeal for campaigning wanes as the public servant throws herself or himself into
committee work. No value judgment here,
just a recognition that Kasemeyer’s career arc is a familiar one.
It is when they endorse a would-be successor that the
situation rises to the level of Vaguely Interesting. How much support can they truly provide
another candidate? The answer is that it
depends on how many voters such individuals can move in the “right direction.” Remember: all of the resources put into
political campaigns (organization, money, reputational capital, etc…) are
ultimately geared towards the One True Currency in a Republic (as it determines
who wins and who loses): Votes.
There are precious few old-school machines these days, and
Ed Kasemeyer is no Richard J. Daley. How
many voters will be moved by his apparently imminent public backing of Mary Kay
Sigaty? I would argue very few. Of course, in a close election, when the battle
is presumably being waged between the 40 yard lines, a few votes takes on
greater importance.
That said, his endorsement was relatively late-in-the-game (although
still enough time for a direct mail piece and for door-to-door communications)
and, perhaps more importantly, it probably serves to galvanize progressive
support for Dr. Clarence Lam. Kasemeyer’s poor
handling of HB1299 (the manner of electing Howard County Board of Education
members) is indicative of someone who has lost touch with the base. In politics, for every action, there might
not be a truly equal reaction…but there is an opposite one. I think a certain number of undecided voters
are going to view the Kasemeyer endorsement in a negative light, these voters
will largely shift to Lam while some will not cast a ballot for Senate District
12. In short, Sigaty may pick up a handful of votes because of this endorsement, but she will also lose some.
Frankly, Kasemeyer's best move from a “legacy” perspective (putting
aside his prior legislative accomplishments) would have been to stay on the
sidelines, endorse no one, and let the voters choose his successor. By wading into this contest, he is further
demonstrating a lack of situational awareness.
Like a late-career Willie Mays, some folks just don’t know when to quit.
In solidarity.
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