When considering the quest to secure the 2020 Democratic presidential
nomination, it is important to bear in mind the historical record.
In 1980, after losing several early states, Senator Teddy
Kennedy’s campaign rallied to pull off wins in a number of late March, April,
and June primaries and caucuses. President
Jimmy Carter achieved victories in 36 states compared to 12 for the Senator
from Massachusetts. Going into the
convention, Carter led Kennedy by a delegate count of 2,129.02 to 1,150.48. Carter went on to be re-nominated before losing
the general election. Kennedy’s efforts, although unsuccessful, served as a
reminder that the progressive flame had not been vanquished in an era when the
New Deal coalition was stumbling towards its full collapse.
In 1984, Senator Gary Hart captured a few early states
before former Vice President Walter Mondale rattled off a string of victories
in March and April. Hart mounted a comeback,
with wins in several Midwestern and western states in May and June. Hart ended
up winning 26 states compared to 22 for Mondale. While securing 35.9% of the
popular vote, slightly behind Mondale’s 38.3%, Hart (like Kennedy) stayed in
the fight through the last primaries and caucuses although he trailed Mondale
in the pre-convention delegate tally (1,929 to 1,164).
In 1988, after 13 wins and garnering more than 6.9 million
votes in the primaries and caucuses (compared to slightly over 10 million for
the eventual nominee, Governor Mike Dukakis) the Reverend Jesse Jackson took his
campaign to the convention – where he claimed 1,023 delegates (whereas Dukakis
went in with 1,792 delegates).
And in 1992, despite winning only 6 states, 596 delegates, and
20.2% of the popular vote, Governor Jerry Brown did not end his campaign until
the convention, where Governor Bill Clinton (37 states, 3,372 delegates, and
52.0% of the popular vote) obtained the Democratic Party’s nomination.
In short, with Senator Bernie Sanders currently trailing former Vice
President Joe Biden in the popular vote by a 30.7% - 37.7% margin, and an estimated
delegate deficit of only roughly 140, with many contests and delegates up for
grabs in the weeks and months ahead, there is no need at all for anyone in Senator
Sanders’ position to end their campaign at this juncture.
The March 15th debate should be one for the ages.
In solidarity.
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