Figuring Out a Way to Work Together

The Howard County Board of Education General Election returns revealed some interesting outcomes.

Based on the still unofficial results:

1. Cindy Vaillancourt obtained the highest number of votes of the eight candidates on the ballot in 57 of the 118 Election Day precincts.  She finished second in another 39 precincts…and in the top four in 117 (all but one of the smaller ones).  She performed well countywide and crushed in Board of Elections Voting District 6 (southeast HoCo: Laurel, Columbia, Jessup, a bit of Ellicott City and Fulton) where she won 27 of the 35 precincts.

Bottom line:  This election served as a vote of confidence in the oft-embattled Vaillancourt. Even with lower turnout, there is no other way to read this outcome.  The other Board Members need to take note, and I am assuming they have already.

2. Sandie French garnered a plurality of the vote in 43 precincts and placed second in another 30.  She also banked the greatest number of early votes (9,721 compared to 9,561 for Vaillancourt).  She fared best in Board of Elections Voting District 2 (Ellicott City) where she won 15 of 26 precincts and also ran well in Board of Elections Voting Districts 3 (primarily West Friendship, Marriottsville, and a slice of western Ellicott City) and 4 (western Howard County) where she won five of six and four of six precincts respectively.

Bottom line:  French capitalized on the strong name identification she has built up over her years of service, a good organization and solid forum performances.  As I noted earlier, incumbents are tough to defeat and this race was no exception.

3. Bess Altwerger won four precincts and finished second in 30.  She was a fine candidate and a prime example that the Howard County Education Association’s backing is important in BoE general elections.  She banked 8,274 early votes, which helped propel her to a third-place finish overall.

4. Christine O’Connor ran away with Voting District 1 (Elkridge, the eastern part of Ellicott City) where she placed first in 13 of the 21 precincts and second in four others.  Overall, she won 18 districts and obtained a second place showing in another 16.  Her strength was concentrated in eastern HoCo but she performed well enough countywide to place in the top four, approximately 200 votes behind Altwerger.  Her 7,426 early votes were 650 more than Dan Furman’s tally.

  

5.  51.95% of the votes cast for Board of Education candidates were cast for candidates supported by the HCEA.  They backed four candidates, two of whom were elected, with the others finishing with respectable fifth and sixth place showings.  It would have been extremely difficult for the full slate to have been successful, given French’s presence on the ballot.  The HCEA would have helped elect a third but O’Connor (an educator) ran a smart campaign and took the fourth position.

Shifting away from numbers for a moment, it is my hope that the two new Members will help usher in a new Era of Good Feelings on the Board of Education.  No one is asking for hand-holding and exchanges of “You are my BFF” texts but the corrosive environment has not been healthy for the Board, for the Howard County Public School System, or the County as a whole.  Now is the time to begin a new dynamic, one that is productive but also conciliatory, respectful and civil. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

An Older Prediction - Time to Get your Stats On

Taken from a Facebook note I wrote & posted on November 2, 2012.  Such a simpler time...now  with an update in the post-script!
  

The 2012 Presidential Election: My Prediction

November 2, 2012 at 3:21pm

Election predictions, essentially, are a parlor game.  That said, if you are in the campaign industry, are fortunate enough to get it right, and enough people know that you got it right, you can wear that laurel wreath as a symbol of your political genius for a decade. (For those in the industry, you know who I am talking about...no names please).

In some election cycles, calling winners and losers at this stage of the game, the weekend before Election Day, is relatively easy.  At this point, former Vice President Mondale knew he wasn’t going to defeat President Reagan.  Senator McGovern knew that he wasn’t going to deny President Nixon a second term.  I am quite certain that Judge Parker looked at the map when he was running against President Theodore Roosevelt and said the 1904 equivalent of “Gentlemen, I am hosed.”

In other cycles, including some recent presidential elections, the outcome was far more uncertain.  Both 2000 and 2004 fell into that category.

Bear in mind, a national presidential election is really 51 state elections (or 50 states + DC if you want to get technical about it).  Electoral college votes determine the winner of the election and they are awarded on a winner-take-all basis.  Win a state by a million votes?  Congratulations, you receive 100% of the electoral votes for that state (we can discuss Maine and Nebraska later, I am making a point here).  Defeated in a state by one vote?  Too bad, because the winner just won 100% of the electoral votes for that state. Loser.

In short, small differences in one or a handful of states can determine the outcome.

Everyone knows that a flip of just 269 votes in Florida would have tipped the election from Governor Bush to Vice President Gore in 2000.  Common knowledge.

Fewer people know just how close 2004 was.  To this day, I am convinced that Senator Kerry’s flip-flop gaffe cost him the election.  Some people know that if 59,300 votes in Ohio flipped from President Bush to Kerry (only one percent of the state vote and .048% of the national vote), then John Kerry would have been our nation’s 44th President.  Fewer still are aware that a flip of even fewer votes (18,776 or .015359% of the national vote) would have sent the election to the House of Representatives.  This would have been accomplished by the following flips in three states:

Nevada 10,751 votes from Bush to Kerry (5 electoral votes)
Iowa 5,030 votes from Bush to Kerry (7 electoral votes)
New Mexico: 2,995 votes from Bush to Kerry (5 electoral votes)

So by a relatively small percentage of the vote in three states, 17 electoral votes would have gone from Republican to Democratic, resulting in a 269 – 269 tie and a nation full of Constitutional scholars debating “Does our Presidential Selection Process Work?”  (Note: this assumes that the Democratic elector who voted for Edwards, and I wonder how that Minnesota elector feels about that today, would have cast their ballot for Kerry instead of playing around).

In any event, 2004, based solely on the criteria of the percentage of the national vote that, if flipped, would have changed the outcome, was the sixth closest presidential election ever.  It was even closer than the fabled Truman – Dewey showdown of 1948.

Percentage of the National Vote Difference (flip from eventual winner to eventual loser) from smallest to largest percentage for the seven closest presidential elections:


1. 2000 (Bush vs. Gore) - .00025% (269 votes flip in Florida & Gore wins)
2. 1884 (Cleveland vs. Blaine) - .0052% (524 votes flip in New York & Blaine wins)
3. 1876 (Hayes vs. Tilden) - .00529% (445 votes flip in South Carolina & Tilden wins)
4. 1916 (Wilson vs. Hughes) - .00923% (1,711 votes flip in California & Hughes wins)
5. 1960 (Kennedy vs. Nixon) - .01052% (7,245 votes flip in four states to Nixon & the election goes to the House) or .01777% (12,236 votes flip in five states & Nixon wins outright).
6. 2004 (Bush vs. Kerry) - .01535% (18,776 votes flip in three states & the election goes to the House) or .04848% (59,300 votes flip in Ohio & Kerry wins outright).
7. 1948 (Truman vs. Dewey) - .02564% (12,487 votes flip in two states & the election goes to the House) or .06016% (29,294 votes flip in three states & Dewey wins outright).

Yes, I spent part of a vacation in 2010 working out the math for every presidential election. Everyone has hobbies...

I know, enough history already. So, let’s turn to 2012.

First, I believe that both President Obama and former Governor Romney start off with a base of around 125 electoral votes.  Remember, it takes 270 electoral votes to win.

If either Obama or Romney were to lose one of the states in their “core” (for example, if Obama lost California or if Romney was defeated in Texas), then do not expect a long night, as a landslide is about to occur.  In which case, many pollsters should be drummed out of the industry.  This scenario is unlikely to happen.

There is a second tier of states for each candidate where an upset is very unlikely, but possible.  For Obama, this would be a state such as New Mexico.  For Romney, it would be South Carolina.  Adding such states up with the mortal-lock states, you end up with around 180 electoral votes apiece.


There is a third tier, which is small for both Romney and Obama, where they have a lead but could lose.  Minnesota & Oregon for Obama and Arizona for Romney fit this bill.  If you add up the electoral votes in this category, the President is right around 200 electoral votes and Romney is slightly above 190.  Overall, it is still very close.

This race fundamentally comes down to 11 (and most likely nine) states: Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Michigan.  These states, primarily the first nine, will play an out-sized role in determining if Obama will be re-elected or if Romney will become the 45th President.

I expect that certain states that voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 will end up in the Republican column in 2012.  I do not believe the President will win any states that voted for McCain in 2008.   That, combined with reapportionment, gives Mr. Romney a much better shot at 270 compared to the previous Republican presidential nominee.

That said, I expect that President Obama will win both Pennsylvania and Michigan, putting him 237 electoral votes, 33 short of victory.

I predict that the President will win in Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia.  Moreover, I predict that Romney is likely to carry Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Colorado and Iowa.

Turning to the two states that factor in performance at the congressional district level when awarding electoral votes, assuming that both Maine Congressional districts vote for Obama and that Romney wins all of the Congressional districts in Nebraska, that works out to 278 electoral votes for President Obama and re-election…and 260 electoral votes for Mitt Romney and a return to the private sector.

More important than the prediction is the possibility that only a small number of votes will determine who wins the Presidency.  In short, vote.

Post-script:

So yes, I called it conservatively for President Obama - who captured 332 electoral votes compared to 206 for Romney, definitely out-performing my projected outcome.  Call me a pessimist.

But with a flip 214,764 votes in four states...Florida, Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire, Romney would have obtained 270 EVs, just enough to win.  That number of popular votes may sound like a sizable number, and it is...but it represents a mere .166% of the popular votes cast for President that year.  Thus, it was the 15th closest Presidential election in U.S. history, based on my "vote flip" model.  In short, looking at relatively recent presidential election cycles, it was closer than the 1992 election (19th overall) and not as close as the 1976 election (11th overall).

Just some fun facts on a Saturday afternoon.  Not that I am thinking about 2016.  Not at all.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.
 



  

HoCo BoE & HCEA (On Apples and Ballots)

A follow-up on my post from yesterday:

There is enough general mishegas going on in and around the Howard County Public School System (HCPSS to you and me) that could lead to a major upheaval in the Board of Education race. Given the players and issues involved, there is sufficient atmospheric volatility that might generate some unexpected outcomes.    

Nevertheless, I would still wager that both incumbents seeking another term in office will be re-elected.  Perhaps one of them ends up in third place but, as of this writing, Vaillancourt and French are good bets for a one-two finish in November.

Regarding the impact of the Howard County Education Association (HCEA) on the HoCo BoE primary election results….well, I thought I already wrote about this.  A long-time reader asked me about it and I was 95% certain it was covered in another post.  So I searched for it online, nothing. 

I have a folder containing about a dozen half-written posts…just random paragraphs sitting around, waiting to be shaped into something, or discarded entirely.  As it turns out, the BoE/Apple Ballot text was right there. So let me combine that (brief) review with the precinct analysis I conducted recently.

In short, the HCEA endorsement of Altwerger, Beams, Furman and Vaillancourt were significant vote drivers, and were of particular importance for the first three names in this sentence.  Given the amount (of dollars) spent on the race by the candidates themselves (negligible), the HCEA money and muscle that went to work for the four constituted a major voter information delivery vehicle. And it produced.

Let us look at this another way.  If you collapse all of the candidate votes (at the polls, absentee, provisional and early voting center) into one bucket and divide it by the number of precincts in Howard County (118), you end up with the following votes in this artificially constructed “average” precinct:

1.     Vaillancourt   134 (HCEA backed)(Incumbent)

2.     French             124 (Incumbent)

3.   Altwerger       108 (HCEA backed)

4.   Furman          101 (HCEA backed)

____________________________________Top Four Vote-Getters

5.   Beams              85 (HCEA backed)

6.   O’Connor         72

7.   Dyer                  65

8.   Smith                57

____________________________________Top Eight Advance to the General Election

9.   Kornreich         54

10. Butler                50    

11. Evans Arthurs 49    

12. Andrews           49

13. Baek                   47

                                   

As always, this is strictly my opinion.  While I don’t have any poll data to verify the following hypothesis, I believe – without the HCEA endorsement – that Vaillancourt would have placed second in the June election.  Her 10-vote per precinct victory margin over French – who is practically a Howard County institution - was supplied by her inclusion on the Apple Ballot. 

And while Altwerger, Furman and Beams are known in certain communities, none of them have the name ID enjoyed by the two incumbents on the ballot; not amongst the primary electorate as a whole.  Dyer is probably better known than those three, even if his Fav/Unfav nets out break-even or negative (again, I have no current data on this). So while they all have strengths, I am inclined to believe that their respective third, fourth and fifth place finishes were driven, in large measure, by the energetic support of the HCEA.

So let future candidates for the BoE – incumbents and challengers alike – take note of that.

Will I be writing about the Kittleman ad blitz soon? Oh yes.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

HoCo Board of Education Primary Election - By the Numbers

Warning:  the author of this blog used to peruse the Baseball Encyclopedia, a massive tome, in the early and mid 80s in a quest to learn #allstats (with apologies to a one “M.G.” for using a derivative of her famous hashtag).

So prepare yourself for a cavalcade…a cavalcade of numbers!

As you are no doubt aware, Cindy Vaillancourt secured the greatest number of votes in the June primary election (15,851), followed by Sandie French (14,688), Bess Altwerger (12,733), and Dan Furman (11,880). 

In this election cycle, the top four vote getters in the general election will be elected to four-year terms on the Howard County Board of Education.   So finishing in the top four in November is a Big Deal.  [Note: In presidential election years (since 2008 anyway), only the top three candidates are elected to the Board. The joys of staggered terms of office].

But enough of these Captain Exposition digressions, let us return to the recent primary official returns…Dr. Zaneb Beams (10,042), Christine O’Connor (8,477), Allen Dyer (7,724), and Mike Smith (6,730) secured the fifth through the eighth positions and will also advance to the general election ballot.

Looking at the precincts:

Vaillancourt placed first in 71 of the 118 Howard County precincts (excluding the absentee, provisional and early voting center votes). Sandie French won in 42, followed by Bess Altwerger (3), Christine O’Connor (3), and Dan Furman (1).  In case you were counting, and I know you were, there were ties for first-place in two precincts.

Vaillancourt and French also finished second in 39 precincts apiece.  Altwerger was second in 28, followed by Furman (7), O’Connor (6), Dyer (2), Olga Butler (1), Leslie Kornreich (1) and Smith (1).

So what does this all mean?  Understanding that the general election electorate tends to be substantially larger than (and significantly different from) a primary election electorate, it tells us a couple of things:

Barring a major shake-up, it is likely that the two incumbents seeking re-election (Vaillancourt and French) will be successful.  In 2006, Frank Aquino and Sandie French were the top two vote getters, respectively, in the primary election.  They maintained those positions in the general election.  The same outcome occurred in 2008 with Janet Siddiqui and Ellen Flynn Giles.  In 2010, French secured the greatest number of votes in the primary election, followed by Aquino.  They flipped positions in the general, with Aquino obtaining a plurality with a 1,005-vote margin over French.  The earlier 1-2 pattern was revisited with Siddiqui placing first and Ann DeLacy second in both the primary and general 2012 elections. 

So while both Vaillancourt and French need to expand their bases, considerably, in order to return for another term, recent history would seem to indicate they are better positioned for a top-four finish than the other six candidates.

As non-incumbents, Altwerger (3^rd) and Furman (4^th) will have to hustle to maintain their in-the-money positions.

Third place finishers in recent Board of Education primary elections have a mixed track record.  Winners include Patricia Gordon (third in both the primary and general election in 2006) and Giles (also third in both elections in 2012).  Both were also incumbents.  On the other hand, challenger Diane Butler placed third in the 2008 primary…only to finish fourth (behind Dyer) and thus failed in her election bid.  Another then challenger and now BoE nominee Larry Walker secured the third position in the 2010 primary, but finished eighth in the general election. 

Those who place fourth in “modern era” BoE primaries have (generally) fared well.  The roster of the victorious includes Lawrence Cohen (fourth in both the primary and general in 2006), Dyer (fourth in the primary but making the cut-off with a third place finish in 2008), and Brian Meshkin (fourth in the 2010 primary; third in the general election of the same year).  In 2012, Jackie Scott held the fourth position in the primary, but went on to the finish sixth in the general.

Pardon as I slip into editorial mode; but I voted for Beams in the primary and I am inclined to cast a ballot for her in November.  From a geographic perspective, Beams tended to perform consistently.  She finished in the top eight in over 100 precincts but finished no higher than third in any precinct. 

I am also taking a good look at Christine O’Connor’s candidacy.  She has more of an identifiable geographic base, securing first or second place finishes in nine eastern HoCo precincts.  

Both Beams and O’Connor will need to build broader coalitions to have any hope of winning a seat this time around.

I am concerned that Dyer will be able to trade off of his relatively high name identification and wind up finishing fourth, or even third.  This author finds that scenario unpalatable. 

Beyond having an easy-to-pronounce last name and a distinctive affinity for alternative neckwear options, I don’t see Mike Smith placing any higher than seventh, sixth on a freakishly good day.

Looking at those who did not advance to the general election:

Kornreich is entering the realm of frequent (dare I say “perennial?”) candidate although, in all fairness, she came close to eighth place and a ticket to the Big Show.  My thoughts on Corey Andrews and electoral politics are fairly well known.  Tom Baek seems like a good, thoughtful person but I don’t believe he possesses a fantastic candidate skill-set.  Not a criticism, just a personal opinion that he is not a Natural politico.    

I believe that Olga Butler and Maureen Evans Arthurs ran decent campaigns and should consider seeking public office down the road.  

But back to 2014, I project that the real action will be for the third and fourth positions and we are going to see a dogfight involving five candidates for those two slots: Altwerger, Furman, Beams, O’Connor, and Dyer.  With slightly over 100 days to go until Election Day, it will be a delight watching this race evolve.

Now where did I put those encyclopedias?

Stay tuned, as more will follow.