The boffins call it crepuscularity, being active during
twilight. Alert drivers know that deer are more likely to amble near the roads at those
hours.
The opportunities of the day seem most promising at dawn;
the possibilities of the night appear greatest at dusk. At those times of transition, the mind is
open to considering multiple riffs in response to the question: “What if?”
Even veteran politicos occasionally ask questions or hold
positions that, on their surface, might appear silly or otherwise off base. At
times, they are. Other times, they are
plugging into their life experiences and, knowing that the world can be very odd
indeed, they speculate out loud on the possible…and realize that even the
highly improbable can become Reality. They have seen it happen before.
It is with these thoughts as a prologue that I turn my
attention to the Maryland gubernatorial campaign – specifically the Democratic
primary.
Using Professor Skowronek’s classification system, the
front-runner, Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, would probably best be described as
an “orthodox innovator.” Elect the
ticket of Brown and his running mate, Howard County Executive Ken Ulman, and
you can expect an Administration that builds upon the work of the outgoing
Governor, Martin O’Malley. Two smart,
competent public servants who are pledging the equivalent of Keeping Maryland
Moving.
The Brown/Ulman campaign is leading in the polls, has
considerable establishment support, and is raising steaming heaps of cash.
Unfortunately, the talent-heavy combo is running a bit too
cautious. Their new ad “Trusted” is a
well-produced bio spot but it feels like a safe move to reinforce the
brand. This happens to
front-runners. Muskie ’72 took a similar
path and that campaign found itself on the wrong end of a boot stomping…and
when the electability argument falters, there had better be something to
replace it.
Perhaps their records are strong enough, and their vision
will be clear enough, to surmount the inevitable challenges that will arise
between now and the June primary, but I don’t think the duo is quite there yet.
If the Brown/Ulman ticket is Coca-Cola, the Gansler-Ivey
team is Royal Crown. Had Congressman
Delaney or Congressman Ruppersberger…or Comptroller Franchot…entered the fray,
the conversation right now would be focused on how Attorney General Gansler can
break the 10% barrier and if he could pay his staffers their gas reimbursements
in anything other than IOUs for bitcoins.
His “For Us” ad is not bad. It connects to voter concerns
and hopes. This is smart politics but
also – in his case – necessary. His
Party Selfie Shown Round the World and allegations of being a bit less than levelheaded
require him to shift the focus from “the man” to “our cause.” While he can raise some funds, he feels too
close to his ceiling (despite current polls showing him only in the 14% - 15%
range). With luck, his campaign would
finish with 28% of the vote but I would wager that is the high-water mark for
that ticket. He probably ends up with
closer to 24%. By July, his running
mate, Delegate Jolene Ivey, will have a much brighter political future than
Gansler.
Delegate Heather Mizeur has embraced the insurgent,
issue-oriented, progressive positioning.
As a general rule, such campaigns are fun to watch. Also as a general rule, they usually don’t
win (at the presidential level, Dean 2004 leaps to mind…interestingly, the
organization that he founded, Democracy for America, is backing Mizeur).
Her selection of Reverend Delman Coates, much like
then-Governor Clinton’s pick of then-Senator Al Gore as his running mate,
represents a decision to double down on a narrative. In the case of Mizeur-Coates: an
Outsider/Anti-Establishment theme.
Which may be smart politics in 2014. Voter anxiety levels are revved up. As it is a non-presidential election year,
turnout is unlikely to be high…with the more ideologically driven voters
constituting a larger part of the electorate.
Frustration is not limited to Republicans and Independents. There are Democrats who feel alienated from
their government, from politicians who they believe do not listen, or truly
understand, their problems. If they are
looking to send a message of change instead of continuity, a vote for Heather
Mizeur for Governor would send such a message.
The challenge for Mizeur is to ramp up her profile to the
point where voters can make the connection that her candidacy is the best
vehicle for change. Not just
intellectually, but viscerally. That
requires some heavy lifting in a relatively short period of time.
And perhaps the majority of Maryland Democrats favor some
version of the status quo. However, her campaign is based on the animating
principle that the voters want a new choice and a different direction. Is she right? It remains to be seen.
Which brings me back to where I started. Although she is running third in the polls,
and contrary to what passes for conventional wisdom these days, I believe that
Delegate Mizeur might just pull off the upset and win the primary. If so, it will be by the narrowest of margins
over Brown. More likely, she runs a very
respectable second and becomes the instant-front runner for another public
office in a not-too-distant election cycle….but there is a path to victory for
her in 2014.
I may be wrong and events may follow a different course, but
I am open to the idea of that improbability becoming a reality…and the sun is
high overhead.
Stay
tuned, as more will follow.
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