There will be time for a deep dive into the numbers. Now is not the moment. Here are some initial observations regarding
last night’s Election results:
The recent high-water mark for a Maryland gubernatorial race is
Governor Martin O’Malley’s 56.2% in his 2010 re-election bid. (Side note: what is he going to say in Des
Moines? In Cedar Falls? In Sioux City?). In 2006, he won with 52.7% and four years
prior to that, the Democratic nominee for Governor obtained only 47.68% of the
statewide vote.
My point is that Maryland has witnessed some competitive
Governor’s races, four of the last six being won by single-digit margins. So
even with the demographic trends of recent years, the 2014 gubernatorial election
was unlikely to be a cakewalk. But any serious Democratic nominee for that office would have to be considered a significant favorite going into a general election contest.
Yet Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown lost, to a B-tier Republican
candidate. I believe this occurred
because:
1)
Maryland was not immune from the Democratic
shellacking that occurred nationwide.
2)
Biography aside, his campaign was
uninspiring. Yes, I was a Mizeur voter
in the primary but I cast my ballot for Brown in the general; even though the
campaign didn’t communicate much in the way of a positive rationale for such an
act.
3)
Democratic turnout in MD was lower than expected. I
don’t have the final or even penultimate numbers in front of me, but there was
an enthusiasm/activation gap…and the Republicans ran a stronger than expected
GOTV operation. Also, the GOP brand
seems to have recovered a bit from the earlier post-Bush 43 years, even though
voters still show high dissatisfaction levels with both parties and with the
both the President and Congress.
4)
“Articulation”-oriented campaign (covered
elsewhere in this blog) can be tough.
You find yourself running against your opponent and the perceived sins
of the affiliated incumbent administration.
I don’t believe the Brown campaign pulled together a truly
compelling/cohesive narrative when discussing the O’Malley record.
Senator Allan Kittleman, apparently Howard County
Executive-elect, would have been Governor-elect had he tossed his hat into that
ring instead. I am guessing he knows I
am right on this matter.
How bad was it for Democrats locally? Congressman Cummings' GOP opponent garnered
43.89% of the vote in the Howard County portion of the 7th
Congressional District and said opponent would, charitably, be called a
perennial candidate.
It appears as though Jon Weinstein pulled off a victory in
Councilmanic District 1, a true swing constituency. How did he accomplish this? I believe he did
an excellent job of localizing the election, framing the race on local issues
and concerns. That appealed to a
majority of voters in the First.
I still maintain that Courtney Watson ran a strong campaign
for County Executive. Look, had they not
attempted to reposition Kittleman, he probably would have won with 55% of the
vote in an election cycle such as this. The comparative effort was
necessary and generally decently executed.
Moreover, Watson provided numerous reasons to vote for her, not just
against Kittleman. She had a good
narrative but it just wasn’t enough in a Rejection Election cycle (you can read more about that concept here: http://www.michiganliberal.com/diary/7278/).
The biggest bummer of the evening, for me, was 9B. From a technical perspective, it would be hard
to find a Maryland campaign better run than Tom Coale’s. Running a positive
citizen-neighbor-legislator style effort that was focused on local issues and
finding practical solutions for the present and the future…it simply wasn’t
enough to overcome a well-known GOP opponent in a highly competitive
single-member House of Delegates district.
On the Howard County Board of Education, the results were
not a huge surprise. I voted the Apple
Ballot because I believe they would have been an effective team. In terms of intensity, I was primarily
concerned with electing Altwerger (who won) and Beams (who did not…which was
very disappointing). That said, I am not
displeased that Christine O’Connor won a seat.
I was not thrilled when she allied herself with Mike Smith, that
decision dropped her to the fifth position on my list, but she was in the
running for a while. And thank goodness
that neither Smith nor Dyer finished in the top four.
At some point, I am going to talk about people who sought
public office this cycle that were unsuccessful...but who should run again. But I am too cranky to write about 2016 or
2018 right now. Let’s call it a post.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
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