HoCo Board of Education: Final Primary Predictions

Disclaimer: For entertainment purposes only.  While reading this post, don't operate heavy machinery.

The Spartan Considerations Editorial Board recently met up to review the Howard County Board of Education primary election campaign.  Over the course of a long yet not entirely leisurely lunch, the present author expressed his personal views regarding the likely outcome/order of finish.  I will now share with you, dear reader, those thoughts (heavily abridged, of course). 

1.     Vicky Cutroneo.  Given the breadth and depth of her support county-wide, it is difficult to envision Cutroneo not finishing first.  It would be a major shock if she placed anything less than a very strong second.

2.     Robert Wayne Miller.  Building up from his 2016 campaign and having earned a spot on the Apple Ballot, I can see him finishing as high as second and as low as fourth, but a top three position seems most likely.

3.     Sabina Taj.  Could finish as high as second or as low as fifth, the proverbial smart money is on a top four showing.

4.     Bob Glascock.  Well-known in education circles and on the Apple Ballot, he is a bit of a wild-card electorally.  Odds favor a 3^rd, 4^th, or 5^th place showing, with the 4 spot being a likely outcome.

I suspect there will be a vote gap between positions 1 and 2.  I deem it likely that the candidates in the second, third, and fourth slots will be clustered relatively closely together.  I think there will be another double space margin between the 4^th and 5^th place candidate, who will be…

5.     Jen Mallo.  She could surprise and come in as high as third…or as low as 6^th or 7^th (on a bad day).  Having run thousands of simulations on my abacus, fifth seems about right.

…and then a small vote chasm will follow…

6.     This is where it starts to get tricky, as so much will depend on Election Day turnout. Last minute shenanigans, bad weather, all kind of variables can have an impact on the order of finish.  I will go with Danny Mackey for the 6^th position.  He has been running a decent campaign and, somewhat like Cutroneo (albeit to a considerably lesser extent) has appeared to pull together a relatively broad-based coalition.  It would not surprise me if he placed as high as 5^th but he could also finish 9^th.   

7.     Saif Rehman.  Visible and well-funded.  It is challenging to see him securing anything higher than 6^th, but he could, like Mackey, end up in 9^th and out of the running. That said, it is highly likely that he will get winnowed in and earn a spot on the General Election Ballot.

8.     Chao Wu.  Could finish in 6^th place, could wind up in 10^th.  Total wild card. I think he is the candidate most on the bubble, but if turnout is low (meaning committed, high-propensity, high information voters comprise a larger share of the electorate), he could fare better than 8^th.

Out of the running?

9.     Mavourene Robinson.  My thoughts on her candidacy and its shortcomings are well-known. Anyone who embraces the principles of social justice should have serious concerns about what she might bring to the table if elected to the Board of Education.  But, in the interest of having a light-hearted, and not hard-hearted, tone, let’s get back to predictions.  On a good day for her campaign, she could place 7^th.  Her base might carry her to a top 8 finish, but she hasn’t been as visible as Rehman, Mackey, or Wu. A low-turnout election might aid her candidacy, but as of this writing, I don’t see her campaign moving onto the General Election.

10.  Anita Pandey.  In the tradition of declaring my interest, I cast my ballot on the first day of Early Voting for the three Spartan Tendency-endorsed candidates (Taj, Mallo, and Miller) and I decided to vote for a fourth person, Pandey.  While I have found her background impressive and her responses to the candidate questionnaires generally solid on the issues, she has been a bit uneven in terms of her forum appearances. This was a strategic vote.  If my assumptions are correct, there won’t be a ton of votes separating 8^th, 9^th, and 10^th places.  If I can help ensure that a more problematic candidate won’t appear on the General Election ballot, that would be excellent.  I could have voted for Glascock, but quite frankly, he shouldn’t need my vote in light of his Apple Ballot endorsement.  Someone at the margins, like Pandey most likely is, could use the fourth vote.  That said, a best case scenario for her candidacy is probably 8^th.  As it stands today, 10^th feels about right but I am glad to have voted for her.  I hope she is still running in the General Election.  

11.  Carleen Pena.  Probably the most unlikely of the active candidates to grab a top 8 position. Just hasn’t been as visible as most of the others.  She also delivered some spotty performances at candidate forums.  Maybe a 5% chance of finishing 8^th but I am just not seeing a path to the General Election for Pena.

12.  and 13.  The three-named invisible candidates.  Timothy Hodgson Hamilton and Christopher Michael Hilfiger. You pick which one comes out ahead of the other, it doesn’t matter. They will both finish far behind whoever places 11^th.

In solidarity.