Dumb Money, Smart Money

In these times, fundraising disparities are less dispositive than they once were.

For example, social media is a great equalizer in terms of a voter outreach and engagement mechanism.  And posting stellar content on a social media platform costs far less than a television ad buy.  Oh GRPs, remember the good old days…?

With that in mind, I perused the most recent campaign finance reports.  Now, 80% of you will understand that I am wearing my advocate cap atop my analyst chapeau.  For the other 20%, I will try to type slowly so you can keep up.

The Senate 9 news is encouraging.  Katie Fry Hester had a stellar fundraising period, where she outraised the incumbent by a staggering 26:1 margin ($71,075 compared to $2,685 for Bates).  I know some folks are skeptical about this as a pick-up opportunity.  Frankly, I thought not so long ago that this district wouldn’t be competitive until 2022 and possibly 2026.  That said, we are seeing a confluence of events (the right candidate at the right time) which has me believing that Hester might be the one to send Bates packing. It would likely be by the narrowest of margins (say, 51% - 49%) but there is a path.  The demographics are challenging but Hester having a $24,000 Cash-On-Hand advantage is helpful.  With strong messaging (compelling messaging drives turnout, this is Campaign 101 folks…) Hester can pull off the upset.  

In the First County Council District, I keep hearing about a massive enthusiasm deficit afflicting the Kathuria effort.  Although he has – at present - an overall fundraising advantage ($14,476 CoH compared to $2,074 for Liz Walsh), those numbers are deceptive.  First, Walsh outraised Kathuria in the most recent reporting period ($4,038 to $3,420).  Second, she gained considerable earned media attention with her victory in the Democratic primary.  Third, district demographics favor the Democratic nominee.  Fourth, her positioning re: development is more in line with many Democrats, and a sizable contingent of Unaffiliateds and Republicans, compared to the incumbent.  Her narrative is far more likely to resonate with voters in the First.  Walsh is well-poised to win the General Election with at least 55% of the vote.

District 4.  In a most vivid example of “so-what” news, Lisa Kim outraised Deb Jung in the most recent reporting period ($9,515 to $6,846).  Jung holds a slight advantage overall, with $6,632 CoH compared to $4,453 for Kim.  The Republican County Council nominee’s campaign is a zombie on cracked wooden stilts.  Go ahead, feel free to use that logo.  No charge. Jung will win with at least 60% of the vote.

District 9B.  Who raises zero dollars in a reporting period?  Bob Flanagan.  Very odd.  Meanwhile, Courtney Watson’s moderate Democratic positioning aligns quite well with the 9B electorate.  She and Flanagan are, essentially, neck-and-neck regarding CoH numbers ($53,727 for Watson; $54,115 for Flanagan).  The climate is much better for the Democratic nominee in this district compared to how it was in 2014.  Watson to win with 52%.

County Executive.  I’ve seen Kittleman’s ads, they haven’t blown me away but I am clearly not in his target audience.  He figures if he can peel off 25% of the Democratic vote while capturing Independents by an 8 – 5 margin, that will be sufficient to re-elect him (narrowly), even with slightly depressed GOP turnout (assuming he pulls in @95% of that bloc).  Ball’s campaign has been (to date) quiet in the legacy media, but quite active with social media.  They appear to be savings resources for the Long Sprint that starts after Labor Day.  While Kittleman holds a sizable CoH advantage ($689K - $390K), it is important to note momentum.  Ball outraised Kittleman by a significant margin in the last reporting period, $172K - $98K.  Moreover, given the national and state political climate, you have to ask yourself…whose place would you rather be in?  Demographically, there is more upside to Ball’s potential electorate…despite of any advantages one might attach to Kittleman’s incumbency.  Even with what appears to be a popular GOP Governor on the ballot, it is tough to see Kittleman garnering more than 52% of the vote, while Ball could break 55% with favorable winds. As much as I enjoy discussing the air game, I have noted that the Ball campaign’s ground game appears quite formidable. Kittleman is still spending too much time talking about the past; his campaign is spending money…but how effective is his messaging?  Putting on my prognostication bucket hat, this race remains too-close-to-call.

On the gubernatorial front, well, I have seen statewide margins of 18 points dissipate over the course of three weeks.  Yes, weak poll numbers can impede fundraising, which can interfere with messaging/GOTV efforts…and the vicious circle spins on.  That said, I think Jealous enjoys solid grassroots support and has plenty of time to make up ground.  Hogan still has an R next to his name, which drops a hard ceiling on his noggin. Yes, some Ds have defected…and this will be remembered.  That said, with Trump redefining/defiling the Republican brand, no Maryland R running in a swing constituency will emerge from this cycle unscathed.  Some GOPers may win, but many will curse Trump’s name from the ashes of their once promising political careers.  Outlook: don't believe the naysayers...Jealous has a hard base of at least 45%.  This will end up being a close one.  At present: too early to make a call.   

In solidarity.