Monday, February 3, 2020

MD CD #7 Final Special Primary Election Predictions

But first: Bernie Sanders will win Iowa.  The second-place finisher will fare quite well and claim some form of "victory."  The campaign that winds up in fifth will be hurting, but how badly?  If Warren or Buttigieg, second degree burns but survivable and a greater need for a quick bounce-back in an early primary state. If Klobuchar, her campaign would be teetering on the precipice.

Back to the 7th.  Rain in the forecast for Tuesday morning does not bode well for more casual voters, meaning high-propensity and ideologically-driven voters will make up an even larger-than-usual share of the electorate tomorrow. 

Note again: these prognostications are not based on poll-data. If you want the latter, pay me.

1. Carter: 22%  Remains my pick to win the Special Primary Election. 
2. Hill:  17%.  Up from 4th place in my earlier predictions piece.  From all accounts, she has been running an active campaign throughout the district. Will finish just ahead of...
3. Mfume: 17%.  Sartorial observation: why wear the same jacket and turtleneck (?) in every direct mail piece?  Nice Movado though.  Same thoughts as before, his time has passed.
4. Rockeymoore Cummings: 15%.  Down from 2nd.  Running the wrong kind of campaign for a Feb. special election.
5. Jalisi: 7%. Up one spot from my November picks.  Insert Pelosi-clap here.
6. Branch: 7%.  Down one spot,  if Jalisi clocks in at 7.2%, Branch will be around 6.8%
7. Higginbotham: 3%. Nice direct mail.  Up from 11th in my last predictions article. 
8. Rabb:  2%. Good candidate but a tough, crowded field.  Hard to break-through as a non-elected. 
9. Spikes: 2%.  I have seen very little about his candidacy.
10 Gosnell.  1% Either Grant or Gosnell will finish 10%, ahead of the other "also rans"

In solidarity!

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