No Slats, Just Stats

2016 Howard County Primary Election Fun Facts – Presidential Candidate Electoral Performances at the County Council Level:

-       Trump won in four of the five County Council districts, losing only in the Fightin’ Fourth to Kasich by a 64 vote margin (2,884 to 2,820).

-       Trump’s biggest margin was in the 5^th County Council district, where he outpolled Kasich with 7,550 votes compared to 5,300 for the Ohio Governor.  He also won rather handily in the 1^st District, with 4,250 votes compared to 3,494 for Kasich.  In short, Trump performed best in the West HoCo GOP stronghold and ran quite well in the swing-ish 1^st.

-       Kasich kept it reasonably close in the 2^nd District (losing to Trump 2,716 to 2,602 votes) and in the 3^rd District (again placing second to Trump by 2,512 to 2,272 votes).  In short, Kasich fared best in the more Democratic County Council districts.

-       Cruz had his strongest showing in the 5^th, with 2,968 votes.  He placed third in all County Council Districts.

-       The only other GOP presidential candidate who broke three figures at the County Council level?  Ben Carson (148 votes in the 5^th). 

-       Worst showing?  A tie between Huckabee (8 votes in the 1^st) and Santorum (8 votes in the 4^th).  Don’t stop believing.

-       On the Democratic side, Clinton won in all five County Council districts. The margins of victory were somewhat narrower in the 1^st District and the 5^th District, slightly over 2,100 votes in both cases.  She crushed it in the 4^th, with 10,126 votes compared to 6,218 for the Vermont Senator. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Pandemonium-upon-Stilts

That sums up the past several months.  There is no doubt a book there, but binding Confidentiality Agreements most likely make that a non-starter.  

I have just enough time to offer up some brief thoughts on the likely contours of the 2016 GOP presidential campaign.    

The campaigns most likely to fold up their tents between now and Iowa:  With 15 heavies remaining (sorry Mark Everson), I believe that Senator Rand Paul (R/Lib – Au) and former Governor Jim Gilmore (R – No VA Car Tax!) are the most likely to quit the field between now and February 1, 2016 Iowa caucuses.  The latter might stick around until New Hampshire as his, let’s call it, “strategy” appears more focused on the Granite State.  That said, he might realize that a top 10 showing is not in the cards, and quietly withdraw at some point during the Holiday Season.  The former may decide to focus on his U.S. Senate seat, so keep a close eye on his early-state polling performances in November and December. If he can’t consistently cross the five percent threshold in the weeks prior to Iowa, expect a retreat to Kentucky.  One more to watch:  Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, wonk-turned-red meat hurler, the former Bayou Wunderkind needs to break out of the second tier.  He selected Iowa as the state that gives him just enough of a push to get past the carve-out states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada).  Unfortunately, for Gov. Jindal, he is facing off against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX/The Second Choice), former Governor Mike Huckabee, Former Senator Rick Santorum, and Dr. Ben Carson for the social conservative vote. 

The campaigns most likely to be done after Iowa:  Jindal if he even makes it to February 1.  I believe that Santorum will lose in the Clash of the Most Recent Iowa Victors Match-up, with Huckabee being the better positioned of the two to do anything in South Carolina.  Santorum will wrap up his campaign on Groundhog Day.  Just in time for him to head home to check on Punxsutawney Phil.

The campaigns most likely to be finished after New Hampshire:  Gilmore if he is still in the race.  Former New York Governor George Pataki will likely receive his last hurrah of the primary season in NH.  Either former Governor Chris Christie or Governor John Kasich will be on life-support or decently positioned as the Bush/Rubio alternative after New Hampshire.  Senator Lindsey Graham may opt for a strategic withdrawal and endorsement of another hawk prior to his home-state primary.

So who is a lock to be an active candidate for the South Carolina primary?  Former Governor Jeb Bush, Carson, Cruz, business executive Carly Fiorina, probably Huckabee, either Christie or Kasich, Senator Marco Rubio, and businessman Donald Trump.

What about March?  I think the short-term calendar shapes up nicely for Cruz.  I expect a Huckabee exit as well as a slow Carson (and slower Trump) fade (all to the benefit of Cruz) and that Bush will struggle. 

Beyond that, I think Cruz and Rubio are well situated to go deep.  Trump and Carson could accrue a significant number of delegates, with Fiorina performing well enough to warrant serious consideration as a VP pick.  If this were a Democratic primary, I would give Kasich better odds as a dark-horse candidate.  As it is not, I think he might emerge as the primary Establishment alternative to Rubio, but will have neither the resources nor the skills to compete with either Senator Cruz or Senator Rubio.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.  

And Then There Were 23

Pardon the brief hiatus dear readers. 

You see, my compadre Slats was mistaken for being a man of confidence by a handful of local officials in a small fishing village in Guatemala, about 10 kilometers outside of Champerico.  So that took a bit of time to sort out.  Two tips: taking the 14 out of Escuintla is not a “short cut” and there is no Yelp for locating top-notch English-to-Spanish-to K’iche’ translators.  Lessons learned. Crisis resolved.  Situation = Askew.  Back to “Normal.”

Oh such flights.

As the calendar pages hurtle (of their own accord??) off the wall, we find ourselves slightly less than six months away from the Ames Straw Poll.  With the Iowa Republican Party deciding (unsurprisingly) to retain the event for the current presidential cycle, this means it is quite likely that at least one GOP presidential candidate, someone who hasn't even officially announced yet, will see their electoral ambitions dashed on a hot August night, somewhere in the general vicinity of Pearson Hall, on the Iowa State University campus.  Home of the Tusslin’ Cyclones.      

The thrilling element here, and there is one, is that I count 23 potential serious or semi-serious Republican candidates who might jump into the fray.  I anticipate that that number will dwindle down to 14 by August 2015, but the prospect of such a crowded field should tantalize any self-respecting political junkie. 

Consider this:  from 1980 to 2012, in the election cycles when there was a legitimate contest for the GOP nomination, the fields included 10 to 13 candidates.  Now, I am including some, let us call them lesser lights, in those tallies.  For example, Fred Karger in ’12, Alan Keyes in ’08, Herman Cain in ’00 (yes 2000, but he didn’t get past the exploratory stage),  Morry “The Grizz” Taylor in ’96, as well as Ambassador Ben Fernandez and future Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld…a couple of times. Not to disparage any of these individuals, but they either exited the process very early (as in the year before the Election) or they performed miserably once the caucuses and primaries got underway.  As was expected of them.

In this cycle, there are fewer apparent “longest of long-shots” in the race.  Are there favorites and relative heavies? Absolutely.  Moderate long-shots?  Sure. But complete non-starters?  Not so much.  Even some of the non-traditional candidates are interesting from an electoral perspective.   Consider Dr. Ben Carson.  Some are quick to dismiss him out of hand.  Will he emerge as this cycle’s Santorum 2012?  Doubtful, but he has a personal narrative and a bit of a nascent constituency.   I think he ends up somewhere between Bauer 2000 and Gingrich 2012.  The presence of other, better-known, social conservatives in the field will block his path to the nomination, but I predict he will run a credible campaign.

With six (yes six), occasionally over-lapping, significant voting blocs in today’s Republican Party, potential candidates are envisioning multiple paths to victory, based on the coalitions they believe they could forge…with the right financial resources, talent, communications, calendar, fortune, intervention by Providence, etc….I will elaborate on this in future posts but the six are, in no particular order:  Social Conservatives, Libertarians, Establishment Center/Right, Tea Party-Aligned, Working Class Cultural Conservatives, and the small number of remaining GOP Moderates & “Liberals.”      

Examining each of those blocs, with the recent decision of Senator Bob Corker to take a mighty pass this time around, are 23 likely candidates. 

I believe that at least seven and possibly all nine of the following group will announce that they are running for President this year:

Paul, Carson, Cruz, Perry, Santorum, Bush, Huckabee, Walker, and Christie. 

With the exception of Carson, all are Governors or Senators or former Governors and Senators.  All have appeal within multiple GOP constituencies (some more pronounced than others).  This is the single strongest Republican field since ’80.  Frankly, it is probably deeper based on this tier alone.

Beyond that first grouping, I anticipate that at least half of the following will enter the race:

Jindal, Fiorina, Graham, and Rubio.  

No slouches here.  I think Graham’s entry, if it transpires, could diminish the perceived value that South Carolina primary generally enjoys. It could be akin to Harkin ’92 when other Democratic candidates avoiding competing on the Senator’s home turf, which inflated the importance of the New Hampshire primary, which helped Clinton and his “Comeback Kid” narrative and the rest is history.  Fiorina, despite her 42% performance against Senator Boxer in 2010, should not be underestimated.  With her business credentials and (potentially) being the only woman on many Republican presidential primary ballots, she could catch fire and go deeper into the calendar than most of the other contenders.

Many within the third group will ultimately decide to forego being a presidential candidate in 2016, but I project at least a couple will mount challenges:

Bolton, Pence, Gilmore, Ehrlich, Pete King, Pataki, Kasich, Snyder, Palin, and Trump.

OK, Trump is a non-starter, but his celebrity (read: notoriety, apparent lack of filter, and not inconsiderable wealth) will generate some buzz…if he gets in (I don’t believe he will).  Governor Mike Pence is serious, as is John Kasich, but they will have to ramp up their efforts, soon, if they want to compete in the Not-so Invisible Primary.  Especially with fellow Midwestern Governor Scott Walker garnering attention and making interesting staff hires. 

Sarah Palin.  She has indicated interest.  Ignore that.  If she runs, it will be an attempt to prop up the Brand.  Based on her public statements, I generously estimate a 9% chance that she gives it a shot in 2016.  In reality, it is most likely under five percent.

Beyond these 23, are there others?  Why yes, I am glad you asked.

My long list has 67 Republicans.  Don’t worry, I won’t run through them all, I will just mention one more worth noting:

Mitt Romney.  Yes, I know he just bowed out.  I peruse Le Monde like you do.  But let’s assume, for a moment, that it is late August 2015.  The Bush campaign is hobbling along. His controversial positions on Common Core and immigration, in conjunction with some gaffes, lower-than-expected fundraising totals, declining poll numbers, and various miscues make him look vulnerable.   Christie acts like Christie and is on the brink of imploding after yelling at some Iowa farmers. Pence and Kasich decided to stay home, so Walker is left standing as the top choice of the Establishment Right…barely.  Would Mitt see himself as the only one standing in the way of a Cruz or Santorum or Huckabee nomination?  He is probably the only one who could jump-start a campaign around Labor Day and pull a serious organization together.  In short, keep glancing over at Romney.  It might not be over for him. And if he is a candidate by September 15, 2015, you read it here first!

A long post?  Absolutely.  Yet the primary season itself is long and full of wonder.  Savor it.  I mean it, commence with the savoring already!

Now if I can only find that luggage.  Waiting for a call from La Aurora International Airport…

Stay tuned, as more will follow.  Count on it.

The Eighth Inning...or What's In a Name?

Supposed to attend a Tigers – Orioles game in Baltimore in a few hours.   Client demands might necessitate a change of plans.  If I do not go, the odds of an unassisted triple play occurring at Camden Yards tonight have improved by 75%.

Went to the League of Women Voters State Legislative Candidate Forum yesterday evening.  Could only stick around for Districts 9 and 12.  Will have to catch D13 on television or online. 

At this late stage of the primary campaign, fighting off forum fatigue is a tough challenge.  The mind is looking to express itself in original ways, which is not always the smartest thing to do. 

This manifests itself in a couple of ways.  In this case of this author, the temptation to engage in boredom-alleviating mischief making was strong.  The forum allowed audience members to write and submit questions for possible inclusion in the proceedings…with the moderator and/or other LWV officials deciding what question would make the cut and be asked of the candidates.

During the District 9A Republican panel, I had the question framed in my head.  I knew an obvious set-up wouldn’t get past the gatekeepers…but something disguised might.  So this is what I came up with:

“A transportation question: given Howard County’s proximity to several major airports, do you favor or oppose the appropriation of funds to measure the impact of chemtrails on our local residents and agricultural products?”*

* (If you don’t know what chemtrails are, you clearly aren’t spending enough time watching conspiracy theory videos on YouTube).

But I didn’t want to be accused of making a mockery of the event, so I showed some restraint and didn’t pass the question along. Although it would have been entertaining seeing how far and how fast the assembled Republicans would sprint to the right.  Someone must protect the Patriots from the menace that rains down upon us! My money was on Christopher Eric Bouchat as the one most likely to take that question and run with it, with Frank Mirabile a close second.   Side note: Bouchat wore that black shirt/red tie combo like a champ.

  

You could tell by looking at the faces of the candidates that most would rather be elsewhere.  Either knocking on doors and talking with voters, reading, wasting their money devising God-awful terrible negative direct mail pieces, bunker prepping, or a host of other activities.  Some seemed to enjoy the experience, while others wore forced grins…if they bothered with smiles at all.

Branding and message disciple are important.  At this point, most of the candidates – to one extent or another – have a well-refined pitch and thoughtful, well-practiced answers to a variety of policy (and other) questions.  Honing and repeating a strong message and building name recognition are important.  But it leads to some unintentionally funny moments.

For example, because the candidates were speaking to the cameras, not knowing if the audience would see their paper nameplate on screen, many of them prefaced or ended their introductions and concluding remarks by stating their name…sometimes more than once.  In several cases, the candidates took the opportunity to repeat their name at the beginning of their responses to each of the questions (for the District 12 candidates, each answered six questions).  Yes Clarence, I am looking at you.

Which is exactly what you are supposed to do.  That said, by the fourth or fifth question, I kept wanting a candidate to mix it up.  Break out with a, “I am Keyser Soze,” or perhaps even an off-hand, “Tyler Durden” before launching into their 30-seconds on fracking.  Of course they would be ripped apart for showing a subversive sense of humor, which is unfortunate.

Big takeaways in the races with contested primaries: 

Tom Coale continues to show why he is the best choice in 9B.  He focuses on tackling serious challenges and working to improve the quality of life in Ellicott City.  Meanwhile his opponent, off-stage, appears to spend his energies launching smears….and I guess he didn’t think it wise to repeat his attacks in-person/on-camera.  Interesting.

As I have noted earlier, I think Ryan Frederic would be a great Senate nominee in District 9, but he needs to win the primary first.  He needs to make it clear that he is the only pro-choice candidate in the field…and I believe the only pro-marriage equality candidate as well.  One could infer his stances on those issues when he rattled off his endorsements, but he needs to be comparative and he needs to make those positions front and center. Now.

The hard-right is well-represented in the GOP primary in 9A.  If the Republicans continue running candidates like that, Democrats are going to make gains in Western Howard County…sooner than later.  The two Democratic candidates: Walter Carson and James Ward Morrow, seem like decent, respectable choices.  Carson’s monologue meandered a bit…I have seen him turn in better speaking performances. 

I have written extensively about the legion running in the 12^th House District.  As a group, they are much better communicators than they were just a few short months ago.  Strictly from a professional perspective, it is encouraging to see that kind of maturation as the candidates grow more experienced, more comfortable.

Of course Jay Fred Cohen was a no-show.  In substantive terms, that might have been the case had he occupied a chair on the stage last night… but writing that seems mean-spirited.  I just haven’t seen a legitimate rationale for his candidacy.

There were mostly thoughtful answers provided to a range of questions dealing with transportation, the business-friendliness of Maryland and other priorities and issues.  Only one clear punch was thrown during this part of the forum; it occurred when Rebecca Dongarra referred to the two candidates who are new to the district.  She did not name them, but that information is easy enough to figure out.  More of a sharp elbow I suppose.

But this post is running long and the hour is getting late.  I will talk about the 13^th soon enough. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.