HoCo Executive Survey – Topline Observations

As a pollster/strategic communications counselor, I will probably be writing about survey research frequently this year.  Here are my thoughts on this new HoCo Exec Poll. 

-          If Calvin Ball (D) is down only 3% against Allan Kittleman (R) on an initial head-to-head ballot test, despite Kittleman leading on Name Identification by a whopping 41% margin (87% to presumably approximately 46% based on the data reported), then Ball is quite well-positioned to expand his electoral base.

-          Statistically, they are in a dead heat right now.

-          This poll indicates that Kittleman (at 42%) is far closer to his ceiling than Ball (at 39%).

-          It would have been better to release the results in mid-December.

-          I am not a huge fan of automated phone surveys conducted for political campaigns. I greatly prefer live interviewer studies.  Yes, they are more expensive, but they are worth it, especially if the interviewers are well-trained in data collection methods and best practices.

-          Sean Murphy, HoCo’s answer to Stephen Miller, tried to launch an attack, but he stumbled. Not exactly an A-game message.   Sade was not singing about him, as he is not a Smooth Operator.

-          I would love to see the geographic breakouts.  Assuming the study was conducted proportionate-to-probability, the subsample sizes for that race from each of the Council Districts are large enough to yield statistically significant data, albeit with a high(er) margin of error compared to the overall MoE (4% at the 95% level of confidence).

-         Would be great to see how the 19% Undecided broke out (by ideological affinity, by partisan affiliation, by geography, by gender, by race, by age, and by voting propensity and/or interest in voting in the upcoming 2018 elections).

-         As I said in 2013 – 2014, the County Executive race is one where the Democratic candidate can win with up to 58% of the vote, and the Republican candidate can win with up to 52% of the vote.  His path was narrower but Kittleman ran in a favorable GOP cycle.  Despite the increased Democratic registration since then, Kittleman enjoys incumbency in a (generally but far from universally) OK economy.  And 2018 (like 2014) is a non-presidential election cycle, where Democratic turnout tends to be lower. Perhaps frustration with Kittleman’s Republican Party will help send more Ds to the polls and lead more Unaffiliated (read: Independent) voters to vote D.  That said, I will stick with that 58% D – 52% R range from the last cycle.

-         Putting myself in their shoes, I would be mildly pleased with the findings if I was Ball and I would be slightly nervous if I was Kittleman.  In short, it was a good day for Dr. Ball.

In solidarity.

Ball In

Yesterday was a rather challenging day for reasons which I will not disclose here (not wanting to bore you, dear reader, with my trials and tribulations). 

Before I delve into Dr. Calvin Ball’s double-plus-un-shocking announcement, allow me a moment to talk about Lisa Kim’s cheap and snide comments about “the character of the community” as posted in a Howard County Facebook group.  Personally, I found her Trump-esque jeremiad against rental properties to be off-putting.  I am not precisely certain why she chose to inveigh against those who aren’t seeking to purchase homes, which include many young adults as well as working class families, but the underlying tone is ugly. I hardly believe that rhetoric calling for the functional equivalent of a wall around Columbia is representative of Howard County values.  She, in her capacity as a candidate for County Council, needs to explain her stance and, in probability, apologize.  We in the Fightin’ Fourth deserve better.

Turning now to Dr. Ball’s launch of his campaign for County Executive, it was a rather subdued event.  With hundreds of friends, family members, colleagues, acquaintances, hangers-on, politicos, neighbors, and others gathered in the grand room at Kahler Hall, I expected the energy level to be more pronounced.  For those anticipating red meat, it was mostly pescatarian fare. 

There were some individually solid lines and turns-of-phrases in his speech, including his thoughts on Howard County as a “beacon of love” and this being a “people’s campaign.”  His reminder that we must think about, and advocate for, those among us who are struggling, those who have not yet secured their “slice of utopia” (to borrow a phrase he employed last night) was precisely what this lefty wanted to hear, and rightfully so. 

Dr. Ball’s speaking style is mellow/cerebral.  I wasn’t expecting a fist-pounding, rafter-shaking oration.  That said, as someone who constantly scanned the room, I could not help but feel as though the assembled wanted to be stirred, charged, “fired up and ready to go,” if I must use that phrase, more than they were.  I didn’t get a sense that people were ready to charge through a brick wall following his summation.  Optimistic? Sure.  Intellectually inspired? More likely than not. Emotionally energized?  Time will tell.   

One of the major applause lines centered on running a positive campaign.  Consistent with the candidate, I can visualize a Ball-for-County Executive campaign adhering to the “Choose Civility” precept.  That said, when the crunch time comes and Team Kittleman and their allies decide to start throwing elbows (and some already have), I hope that Team Ball’s orientation towards “the nice” won’t impede their ability to embrace “the tough.”  In the fight for progressive values, sometimes it takes more than hugging it out.

In solidarity.

A Waste of Time

Two thoughts on a theme – National first and Howard County-specific second:

-        The 2020 Democratic presidential field should be bereft of candidates who sought the office previously.  Invigorated blood is what is needed. Sorry Joe, Hillary, and Bernie.  Grab a seat, Martin. The last three Democrats to win the White House were all first-timers when they sought the nomination (’76, ’92, and ’08). Most of the folks who ran before (and whose names are bandied about as possibilities in 2020) are hauling about heavy baggage, fairly acquired or not.  We can’t waste time fighting old wars.  That said, I am certain we will see a doomed-to-failure sequel from someone.  Unfortunately for them, and the electorate.

-        Turning from national to HoCo news, I am getting more than a little irked at the namby-pamby-ness of the Invisible Campaign for County Executive.  I recognize that September is the time when this battle is likely to be joined but I am seeing Kittleman dominate the earned media space this summer.  It reminds me of how the Clinton re-election effort, oh, excuse me, the DNC spent the entire summer prior to the ’96 GOP National Convention beating the ever-loving tar out of the Dole campaign, defining the Republican nominee before he had a chance to establish his own narrative.  Folks can’t expect to win in ’18 just because they have a D next to their name.  Democrats in HoCo need to roll out a progressive platform, provide a solid rationale for their candidacy that appeals to voters, and show an ability to frame a debate. Right now, it feels like an opportunity was lost.  As former British MP Dr. David Owen said about the struggle over the direction of the Labour Party, “it will have to be a fight of passion and of conviction…we are fed up with the fudging and the mudging, we are fed up with slush and mush, we want courage, fight, conviction, and hard work.” 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

A Very "Special" County Executive Preview

From the Desk of S. MacCune

Political Consultant (Ret.?)

Licensed Alpaca Broker

Phrenologist (Blue Belt)

I admit that my connection to Howard County is attenuated. So when the proprietor of Spartan Considerations asked me to pen a Guest Column, my first question was, how much cash on the barrelhead?  JB launched into some bullshit about the spirit of public service; which I knew meant the “thrifty” bastard wasn’t going to part with Dime One.  After reminding me how many times he picked me up from various Eastern Seaboard airports over the years (as if I can drive my Alfa across the Atlantic), I generously agreed to volunteer my talents for this assignment.      

Although I taught JB everything he knew, or could hope to know, I did have two more questions before I could write this piece:  Who are these people and can I write as I talk?  On the former, he gave me the low-down, on the latter, he said “sparingly.”  Fucking A right. 

So, here is my learned perspective on the County Executive race, which I guess is what passes for hot action in certain [square] circles.  Soak it in.  Soak it ALL in.

Incumbent:  Allan Kittleman.  Look, my read is that Gov. Hogan may not run for re-election, in which case AK (Note: do they call him AK?) looks like a decent gubernatorial candidate.  Moderate in personality if not in policy or appointments, he profiles well for a Republican seeking statewide office in Maryland…and by 2018, what’s left of the Establishment Republican Party might be looking hard at folks like AK to keep the hordes from burning down the rest of the barn.  But let’s say he runs for re-election, he starts with a 42% base in a bad GOP cycle and 45% in a good one.  Given his history, he is unlikely to lose in a blow-out but national trends and unforced errors could send him packing after one term.

Possible Challengers (those receiving the most mentions)

Dr. Calvin Ball. Second Council District.   Democrat.  Well-known, well-liked, and well-respected Council Member.  Big on financial literacy (Note: with Education as the most salient issue in HoCo by a country mile, how important is the financial literacy point of differentiation within the larger Jobs/Economy matrix?).  Former community organizer.  Represents a large chunk of Columbia.  Also an educator (See earlier note re: education).   From what I hear, he’s held the “presumptive frontrunner” slot since mid-November of ’14.  There was no primary last time around for CE.  Will that hold a second time around?  I would be skeptical.

Mary Kay Sigaty.  Fourth Council District.  Democrat.  West Columbia + some parts South.  Has emerged as a big Downtown Development advocate over the course of her tenure on the Council. Faced challenges from Slower Growth advocates in her backyard.   Visible on TIF funding to grow downtown Columbia even further (note:  I wasn’t aware the area by the Columbia Mall was blighted, did a dumpster overflow once?).  Qualified for CE? Sure.  Rationale for her candidacy yet?  Not so much from what I hear.

Bill Woodcock.  Oakland Mills. Democrat.  Long-time activist in Democratic party politics? Check.  Knows public policy and how government services are administered? Check.  Willing to take the fight to the GOP nominee and make a case for a progressive governing vision?  Check.  An outsider choice?  Apparently. 

Other Potentials…(not mentioned as often, but the names pop up…)

Jen Terrasa.  Third Council District.  Democrat.  Southern/Eastern HoCo.  High profile in recent months with a differing take on the need for TIF funding for Downtown Columbia.  JB passed along some speculation about JT possibly being Annapolis-bound at some point.  Who knows. 

Note: no wonder why JB writes less these days.  Almost 600 words in.  I am parched for lack of Aberlour.  

Courtney Watson.  Former First District Council Member, former Board of Education Member.  Standard-bearer for the Democratic Party in ’14 as the CE nominee.  Ran into a buzz-fucking-saw of an election year.  Would have won in 8 out of 10 election cycles.  Retains high Name ID.  Serious policy wonk.  Does she want a re-match? 

Delegate Clarence (the Doc) Lam.  Conventional Wisdom is that Annapolis is a better fit…although not necessarily the House of Delegates. According to observers, look for a shake-up in the D12 Slate for ’18.

Ken Ulman.  Former CE.  Might be a loophole allowing him to seek a third term.  US Grant thought about it, Teddy Roosevelt wanted to, as did Woodrow Wilson.  Didn’t work out for them, and some think it might be tough sledding for Ulman if he went down the Comeback Lane.

Tom Coale.  Attorney.  Ellicott City booster.  Whispers but the smart money is on a big PASS for Coale in ’18.  Maybe Annapolis down the road or a County office in a future cycle.

So all of this is third hand anyway.  Speculation and musings from Maryland’s Heartland. 

Let’s see who reads this far.  What does JB write? “Stay tuned as….” Screw it, who wants an alpaca?  They make great pets.  They eat Combos, no muss, no fuss. Email me. Let’s make some moves.         

Prelude to a Prelude

Greetings HoCo Readers.

So now that I have the voice of Bill Hader in my head, intoning the words in a TimeLife Announcer persona, "The music...of John Denver..." I am far too mellow to re-visit the 2018 Election Preview.  Tranquility is a scarce commodity, so I will ride this train until the tracks end.

The trouble with the Preview is that it means naming names.  That leads to assessing strengths and weaknesses.  With multiple friends, acquaintances, and non-bitter enemies considering public office in the next cycle, I am loathe to delve into such critiques.  Not during this Holiday Season, not after this long and yet unfinished year.

I will say this, in terms of the County seats upon which I am likely to focus (blog coverage-wise) in 2017-2018, I would say they are, in precisely the following order:

1) County Council District #4.  With a strong probability of a multi-candidate field (as is the likely scenario for all open Council seats), I am most concerned about my home district.  I want a good, smart, progressive, and electable Democrat to emerge as the nominee.  Someone who is running for a Greater Purpose.  I know some very interesting folks who are looking at this seat,  some who I don't know as well, and one or two complete non-starters who need to ask themselves, "am I doing this to promote the common good or am I just on a massive ego trip?" Unfortunately, those in the last group tend to lack that measure of self-awareness.

2) County Council District #1.  Big Jon W. in the only legit swing Council District.  If re-elected, as he should be since he has been an excellent, grassroots-focused, and very practical Good Government public servant, he will be the sole returning member of the Council.  The partisan breakout of the First would appear to invite a top shelf, or at least second tier, R opponent.  So I will probably write about this race a fair amount.

3) County Executive. To be honest, i am just not that focused on the County race that is likely to draw the most attention in 2018.  Oh sure, I could go on about the Trump/Kittleman Republican Party, but is my heart into it at the moment?  Nope.  Perhaps post-Announcement(s).

4) (tie) County Council Districts #2 and #3.  Some interesting potential candidates for both seats.  For now, see my tagline.

6) The Board of Education (4 seats).  As of this writing, I have no idea if all four up for re-election will run again, or if no one will.  My assumption is that two will.  If some interesting challengers leap into the fray, I may spend some time on the BoE, especially when forum season rolls around.

7) County Council District #5.  Wake me up in 2022.

That will do it for today.  I hope everyone has a Happy New Year!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Initial Numbers: Code-Breaking 101

First, it is important to reiterate that this author is not a journalist.  I am not restricted by the SPJ’s Code of Ethics, although I tend to abide by most of its provisions, sometimes deliberately.  Bear this in mind.

Second, I assume some of the names will decide to not seek public office in 2018.  If someone passed along a solid tip or a random musing, I gave each equal weight for the purposes of this exercise.  So, don’t get freaked out.  Or do.

So, here are the first six races of note.   

1. CE: R (2), D (9).  Multiple if/then statements on the D side.

2. CC1: R (2 ½ ) , D (1 ½ ).  Only CC race with an incumbent.

3. CC2: R (1), D (5).  I think the Conventional Wisdom in this race misses the mark.

4. CC3: R (5), D (5).  Might end up being the most interesting race in the County in ’18.

5. CC4: R (?), D (8). My home district.  I will be very active here. Very.

6. CC5: R (3), D (3). I don’t see the flip yet, but ’18 will be more competitive.

Beyond the above, I also heard another four names for CC, but not attached to any specific district.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Nanny State Bull$#!&

From a political perspective, Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman  - that still sounds weird - did the right thing when he “officially overturned a ban on the sale of sugary drinks and high-caloric snacks on county property and at events sponsored by the county,” (as originally reported by the illustrious Amanda Yeager of the Howard County Times).

The title refers to my reaction when I first heard about the proposed ban on such sales.   Now, I am not an expert on public health policy and Lord knows that all of my friends are Clean Living adherents, ingesting only the purest, quadruple-filtered H2O and the healthiest, organic, locally sourced free-range flaxseed.  

But I do know something about human behavior and how voters perceive, and react to, actual or potential laws and regulations.  The so-called “soda ban” was a classic example of Democratic over-reach.  It so easily fed into the infuriating but persistent narrative of Democrats imposing restrictions on what people can or cannot do with their hard-earned money because “we know best” (i.e., you can't be trusted to do the right thing, so we will deny you the opportunity to make such a decision).

Now, I sympathize with those who want to promote the consumption of healthier foods and beverages.  There are several avenues to bring about this end. 

First is by embracing a culture of healthier living.  When I got serious about getting into shape, I switched from pop to water and greatly curtailed eating “junk” snacks.  Real food with nutritional value tastes better and I have saved money in the process. I know this may be more of a challenge for families with children and/or those with tighter budgets or less time to explore different food and beverage options, but I believe greater mindfulness regarding wellness practices combined with smart grocery shopping can help combat obesity and related diseases - and far more effectively than the now defunct ban. 

Another way is by purchasing healthier options from vendors who are peddling their wares on county property and/or at county-sponsored events.  The market will react to changes in buying patterns. If Frescas don’t sell, they are less likely to be carried. Space is everything for such merchants.  If water or fruit juices move, they will stock those items instead of sodas.

And the soda ban was so memorable too.  Such an easy thing to run against.  Subtext: "Can you believe those arrogant, know-it-all, pointy-headed jerks?  They don’t even want you to quench your thirst on a hot August day with a good old American Coca-Cola because they know best.  How out-of-touch are these folks?" 

I know I have some friends who think differently on this subject.  Was his decision good public policy?  That can be debated.  But this article is on the politics of the matter, and on that point, given where the electorate is, Kittleman made the best move available.

On another note, and perhaps the topic for another post, I think Kittleman’s emphasis on “trust” as a key factor in his hiring decisions is being applied in a way that will cause short and long term problems for the County and its residents.  There are some smart, talented people who are being pushed out.  Is it because of their well-known service with Ken Ulman? Affiliation with the Democratic Party?  I was not present when these personnel decisions were being made, so I have no idea what is in the hearts and minds of the “deciders” beyond their public pronouncements.  That said, the new Administration is asking several individuals with a great deal of valuable knowledge and institutional memory - and exemplary records as public servants - to move along and that isn’t sitting well with this writer.  The Kittleman folks need to have some outsiders at the table.  We see that in the U.S. Cabinet and the County Government should be no different. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Immoderate Inclinations

1)        In a county with an active conservative/Tea Party contingent, if Senator Allan Kittleman were really that moderate, don’t you think he would have been primaried from the right?  Yet he was not.  What does that mean?

2)        To answer that question, I recommend reviewing kittlemanfacts.com.    The facts reveal a disappointingly conservative voting record on education, on guns, on economic issues, on the environment, and on women’s health issues.

3)        When a seemingly moderate persona comes in conflict with an actual right wing voting record in Annapolis, what is more important…a “nice guy” personality or a County Executive who shares your values and vision for Howard County…and who has, and who will, deliver real-world results? 

Facts matter. On Tuesday, vote for Courtney Watson for County Executive.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

The Sun Missed Their Own Point – Watson Is the Better Choice

The Baltimore Sun showered Courtney Watson with praise in their recent editorial on the Howard County Executive race.  They referred to Watson as “an immensely gifted and dedicated public servant.” They “hope she [Watson] will find many more opportunities to share her talents with the community.”

Yet, they endorsed Allan Kittleman.  Let us examine their rationale for doing so.

They appear to give a great deal of weight to the importance of having something equating to a relative degree of parity between the two parties.  I can understand the innate appeal such a proposition would have among self-described adherents of a good government philosophy.  For such voters, it sounds inherently “fair”…something that might promote moderation and compromise. However, there can still be a “competition of ideas” within a political system where one party is stronger than the other.  Moreover, many states that have more competitive two-party systems than Maryland still witness highly divisive, highly partisan political environments.   

Frankly, their argument would have more merit if Senator Kittleman had decided to run for Governor.  First, he would have been a stronger candidate for that office compared to Larry Hogan. Second, even the Sun editorial stated that “Maryland is stronger when it has two viable political parties…” Note that.  Not “Howard County” specifically but “Maryland” in general.  Kittleman is not running statewide.  At least not in this election cycle.   

It has been established that Senator Kittleman’s voting record is more conservative than his persona.  How, precisely, is his “kind of independence” going to work out with a Democratic County Council and a Democratic state legislature?  Further, wouldn’t a Republican County Executive be cross-pressured by his base to pull to the right on economic issues?  On some social issues?  It seems to be more of a recipe for stagnation and deadlock than a path to move Howard County forward.

By labeling Kittleman a “relatively liberal Republican” and Watson a “relatively conservative Democrat,” the Sun missed two critical points:

First, both are running as progressives.  The key distinction is that Watson is closer to being a true progressive while Kittleman is highlighting certain policy stances in an effort to position himself as one…when he is really fairly conservative on a host of issues (Right to Work, education funding and assault weapons leap to mind).  Second, one can infer from their description of her that Watson is a different kind of Democrat.  Perhaps distinct enough from Mr. Ulman to provide a “fresh approach to leadership of the county?”  I believe so.

The Sun seems to accept the belief that Ken Ulman will be viewed as a good County Executive, “whose legacy will ultimately be seen as having left the county better than he found it.”

And then they use language that might be found in a classic political science tome.  They state that Kittleman isn’t running “as a repudiation of the incumbent.”  Maybe, maybe not.  The point is that if you believe that Ulman’s legacy should be built upon, why would you endorse someone from the opposing political party?  That invites the politics of “preemption,” to use Professor Skowronek’s typology.  If you want to extend his legacy, it makes far more sense to practice the “politics of articulation” and elect someone distinct from, yet affiliated with, the identity of the incumbent. 

The good news is that there is such a candidate.  Her name is Courtney Watson.

In short, I suggest that the Sun editorial board re-read their own endorsement.  Perhaps they should re-think their conclusion.  A careful review of their own editorial might prompt a new one beginning with the phrase: “On second thought….”

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Breaking Campaign News: Oops Indeed!

Looks like the so-called "disputed" Allan Kittleman quote in the Team Howard Slate mailer was, in fact, properly sourced and completely accurate.  

In short, Kittleman said it.  Moreover, the Watson campaign and allies - contrary to claims otherwise - used the corrected story.

Based on the original Baltimore Examiner print article (dated 10/7/2006), it appears as though the Kittleman quote used in the now famous mailer (a JPG of which can be found here) was indeed 100% on point.  The quote language from both the original print article and the corrected article, which can be found online, is identical.  

The quote, as written by the Examiner Staff Writer, reads:

“ ‘I think that allowing people who are responsible, like teachers and principals, to carry concealed weapons would make individuals think twice about attacking someone,’ said Howard County state Senator Allan Kittleman, R-District 9.”

That sentence appears verbatim on one of the KittlemanFacts.com mailers, the one with the quote from a mother from Ellicott City who asked: "What was Allan Kittleman thinking?”  A picture of the piece appears at the end of this post.

The only difference between the original print article and the corrected online article exists not with Kittleman’s quote, but with the preamble leading into his remarks.  The mailer uses the language found in the online, corrected article that was published on October 7, 2006:

“At least one state senator said arming educators with guns in response to a string of national deadly school shootings is an idea worth considering.”

[Source: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senator-open-to-weapons-for-administrators/article/55189]

The original print article features a harder-charging lead-in paragraph:

“At least one state senator said teachers should start arming themselves with guns in schools to protect themselves and others from violent acts.”

The key point here is that, in both versions of the article, original and corrected, the Kittleman quote is the exact same.  And yes, the mailer used the corrected version.

This raises several questions…

1. Did the Kittleman campaign know that his quote was, in fact, accurate?  If so, when did they know this?  If they didn’t know, that is poor due diligence on their part.  If they did know, then why did they falsely accuse the Team Howard Slate of putting out misleading information? 

2. Does Kittleman still stand by his quote? If yes, why? If not, why not?

3.  Does Kittleman also stand by the position, appearing later in the same article, where he states that, “I am currently a supporter of reducing the restrictions on people who carry concealed weapons.” If yes, why? If not, why not?

4. Will the Kittleman campaign apologize to the voters of Howard County and/or the Team Howard Slate for stating, non-factually, that the quote in the mailer was inaccurate?

 

So there you have it.  The quote stands as yet another example of Senator Kittleman’s more conservative stances.  One that I am certain his campaign would rather not discuss, as it would add to the perception that some of his beliefs are out-of-step with the majority of Howard County voters.  Definitely not a topic they would like to touch during the same week fellow Republican and current GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.

A JPG version of the original print article can be found here: 

The quote from the corrected article can be found here, on the mailer:

 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.