Saturday, July 30, 2016

Initial Numbers: Code-Breaking 101

First, it is important to reiterate that this author is not a journalist.  I am not restricted by the SPJ’s Code of Ethics, although I tend to abide by most of its provisions, sometimes deliberately.  Bear this in mind.

Second, I assume some of the names will decide to not seek public office in 2018.  If someone passed along a solid tip or a random musing, I gave each equal weight for the purposes of this exercise.  So, don’t get freaked out.  Or do.

So, here are the first six races of note.   

1. CE: R (2), D (9).  Multiple if/then statements on the D side.

2. CC1: R (2 ½ ) , D (1 ½ ).  Only CC race with an incumbent.
3. CC2: R (1), D (5).  I think the Conventional Wisdom in this race misses the mark.
4. CC3: R (5), D (5).  Might end up being the most interesting race in the County in ’18.
5. CC4: R (?), D (8). My home district.  I will be very active here. Very.
6. CC5: R (3), D (3). I don’t see the flip yet, but ’18 will be more competitive.

Beyond the above, I also heard another four names for CC, but not attached to any specific district.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

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