Board of Education – Blackjack +1

The rest of January is going to be challenging in terms of writing for fun.  With that in mind, here is a quick initial run-down of potential 2018 BoE candidates.  Bear in mind there are 4 seats up, which means that the field will be winnowed down to 8 after the Primary.

Incumbents (4)

-       Bess Altwerger, Vice Chair.  Elected in 2014.  As of this writing, the only mortal lock to seek re-election.   Likely to win another term if she does.

-       Cynthia “Cindy” Vaillancourt, Chairperson.  Serving her second term on the BoE.  Top vote-getter in the 2014 General Election for the Board.  A near sure-bet to win a third term. I am hearing speculation in certain circles that she may not want to run for the Board again, but wants to be certain that the new Reform majority is solid before making a final decision. 

-       Sandra “Sandie” French.  A long-time BoE Member (21 years and counting), the current buzz is that she is disinclined to run for another term. Aggregating the wisdom from the Echo Chamber, I would estimate a 1-in-3 chance of her running for the BoE in 2018.  If she does, she probably finishes in the top 8 in the Primary but I believe she would finish no higher than fourth in the General, and could lose depending on the composition of the field.

-       Christine O’Connor.  Still in her tumultuous first, and perhaps only, term, I am hearing that she is dissatisfied with Board life…and being in the minority is unlikely to change that.  One in four chance of running for the BoE again and even if she does, she might not get past the primary. 

From the BoE to the Council (and Back Again?)(2)

-       Mary Kay Sigaty.  Last served on the BoE in 2006.  Current Council person in the 4^th (term-limited out). Retains strong Name ID in Columbia.  Probably a better bet for MKS than running for County Exec.  Would finish in the top 8, decent bet to win one of the 4 seat in the general.

-       Courtney Watson.  Last served on the BoE in 2006.  Former Council Member from the 1^st.  Democratic nominee for County Executive in 2014.  Solid County-wide Name ID.  Odds of winning a BoE seat?  High assuming two open seats, extremely high assuming three.    

Former BoE Members (non-Council Members)(3)

-       Ellen Flynn Giles.  Of the incumbents who lost in 2016, EFG is the one most likely to try to win a seat back.  Likely to finish in the top 8, would be a challenge to place in the top 4 in November, but her odds would increase if Sigaty and Watson did not run and there were three open seats.

-       Ann De Lacy.  Who knows what ADL might decide.  She has torched many bridges.  I doubt she would finish higher than tenth, assuming a full field with several well-known (and less controversial) candidates. 

-       Janet Siddiqui.  Another incumbent who failed to secure re-election in 2016.  It is challenging to ascertain what steps House Siddiqui may take to reacquire a public office.  A stronger candidate than ADL, I nonetheless think she would have a tough time winning a seat back, in light of her higher unfavorable numbers throughout the County.

    

We aren’t even half-way through yet.

2016 Candidates (4)

-       Corey Andrews (also a 2014 candidate…and 2012).  He posted a good showing in ’16, finishing 7^th ahead of two incumbents and almost garnering enough votes to appear on the General Election ballot.  I don’t know Mr. Andrews well.  I hear good things and what I am about to say should not be taken as a criticism.  If I were advising him, I would ask how badly he wanted to serve on the BoE.  A young man, he has run for office unsuccessfully a couple of times now.  He is on the borderline of entering perennial candidate status.  How much has he changed since 2012? 2014? Since 2016?  Perhaps he should do some other things professionally and run again in another decade.  I also hear his name attached to other possibilities but I think some serious self-reflection is in order (in order to maintain his long-term political viability).

-       Robert Miller.  Disclosure: pretty sure I voted for him in both the Primary and General Election in the last cycle. Finished sixth in both. This is where we start talking about the power of the HCEA endorsement, the lack of which hurt Miller in ’16.  If he can get on the Apple Ballot, perhaps he has a better shot of winning a seat.  Without it, in a crowded field, he might finish 7^th or 8^th in the primary…and most likely around the same place in the General.  I hear he is all but certain to run in 2018, so it will be interesting to see how his strategy evolves and how he applies the lessons learned to another campaign.

-       Pravin Ponnuri.  Decently connected, he placed 10^th of 11 candidates in the ’16 primary. In absolute numbers, he wasn’t that far behind the sixth place finisher, but I think he needs a small field to have a chance to get through a primary.  I think he would have a very challenging time winning a seat in November.

-       Vicky Cutroneo.  Placed fourth in November, about 14,000+ votes behind the third-place finisher, Mavis Ellis.  Ran an interesting slate campaign with Christina Delmont-Small, which I believe helped her in the Primary (I think she caught a bit of the Apple Ballot halo effect even though CDS was the only one of the two with the HCEA endorsement).  A decent bet to finish in the top 8 in the Primary, I think she has a tough road to a final four showing in the General.

2014 Candidates (4)

-       Dr. Zaneb Beams.  Finished sixth in the General Election.  Had the HCEA endorsement, which was a decided plus.  I have already written about her regarding District 5.  If she ran for BoE and secured a spot on the Apple Ballot, she probably gets through another primary.  She would most likely need a field with fewer Big Names and multiple open seats to place third or fourth in November.

-       Dan Furman.  Placed fifth in the General Election in ’14, not too far behind Christine O’Connor.  I hear he is likely to run for the Board in ’18.  Assuming he is on the Apple Ballot, I believe he finishes in the top 8 and has a decent shot of winning (finishing fourth) in the General. 

-       Olga Butler. One of several candidates who placed around 1,000 votes behind Mike Smith, I am inclined to believe she is more likely to run for the BoE again as opposed to running in the Second County Council race (a rumor I heard recently), given the focus of her community activism. 

-       Maureen Evans Arthurs.  I am high on her upside potential for a race for a partisan office (a future County Council run, or the General Assembly).  Her deep involvement in Democratic politics plus her Annapolis experience positions her well for such posts.  The challenge is waiting for those opportunities to open up.  I think she would be an excellent BoE candidate if she were to give it another go in ’18, and I believe she could finish in the top 8 in the Primary…it would take excellent execution and good fortune for her to land in the top 4 in the General. 

Wait, there is more…

Other Potentials (5)

-       Lisa Markovitz.  I am not seeing it, given her issue focus…which deals with schools to a certain extent but only as a part of a larger concern re: growth and development.   I doubt he runs for the BoE in ’18.  If she does, her base might allow her to finish in the top 8 in the primary, but I am thinking more like 9^th or 10^th.

-       Barb Krupiarz.  An intriguing possibility with some clout amongst the Reform constituency. An education activist with a significant digital presence, I don’t know how that might translate into a nuts-and-bolts campaign (or how strong her candidate skill-set is).  Either way, if she runs, it will be something to watch.  I don’t see her as a back-of-the-pack finisher, she could surprise and place 7^th or 8^th in the Primary and then it is off to the races.

-       Alice Giles.  What if, instead of EFG running for the Board, her daughter runs instead?  At this point, Alice isn’t carrying the electoral baggage of her mother, with the benefit of having a solid political name that is known County-wide.  Ms. Giles, Alice that is, has a broad issue portfolio, so perhaps the County Council is a better fit for her background and interests.  That said, if Alice ran for the Board, I believe she has a very good chance of finishing 5^th or 6^th (or better) in the Primary and a good chance of winning in November.

-       Deb Jung.  Heard about her as a possible candidate for County Council.  I could see her either going that route or the BoE, given her interest in education.  Regarding her ability to put together an infrastructure and her skills as a candidate, those are question marks at this time.

- Daniel "Danny" Mackey.  Engineer and education activist is also pondering a run for the Board of Education.

Well, after this series, I may need to take a little break.  There might be an odds-and-ends wrap up, but we shall see.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Four-on-the-Floor , 15 up for '18?

First, allow me to thank Slats for his spirited analysis of the Howard County Executive race-that –might-be. Second, further permit me to assure you that his thoughts generally reflect the editorial line of this blog. 

Except for the limericks, I removed those.

Before I delve into an early look at County Council District #4, let me begin with some light math.

Population estimate for Howard County (2015) according to the U.S. Census: 313,414. 

Five Council Districts assuming all are roughly equal in size (key word: roughly) = 62,682 residents apiece.  This figure includes people who aren’t yet of the voting age population and it includes non-registered voters who are of legal age to cast a ballot.

Looking at recent contested primaries at this level, relatively speaking, it doesn’t take that many votes to win…

2014:  County Council District One.  Competitive four-way Democratic primary.  4,947 total votes cast, the leading vote getter won with 1,643.

2014: County Council District One. Competitive two-way Republican primary.  2,052 total votes cast, the winner had 1,343.

2014: County Council District Two.  Competitive two-way Republican primary.  1,337 total votes cast, with the eventual nominee obtaining 850.

2010: County Council District Four.  Competitive two-way Democratic primary.  6,238 total votes cast, with the winner securing 3,888.

So what happens if the Open Seat in 4 draws 6 candidates? 8? 10?  Even with a turnout of, say, 10,000 votes, how many votes would constitute a plurality? 

As of this writing, I received 15 names of potential candidates.  All Democrats.  Here they are with some back of the envelope analysis.  These candidates are in no particular order.  Or are they?  They might be in a particular order.  More or less. 

Candace Dodson-Reed.  Heavy hitter in the Ulman Administration who gets both politics and public policy.  Currently playing a key communications and public affairs role at UMBC.  Long-time Democratic activist with many friends in the Fourth.  Would be an excellent candidate for a County or State office.

Byron Macfarlane.  Register of Wills.  Progressive, good-government reform type. Proven County-wide vote getter (twice).  If he were to run, he would instantly be in the top tier.

Bill Santos.  Engineer by trade with a deep background in community engagement and planning/zoning issues.  No slouch on technical expertise.  No one knows Columbia better.  Unknown Factor: would he be a good candidate for public office? 

Josh Tzuker.  Attorney and former Hill Staffer.  Smart, policy-wonk-ish, especially on Federal issues.  Honestly? I don’t know him well enough to comment further on his skillset.

Meet the Feldmarks.  Jessica (current Council Administrator, one couldn’t ask for a better position outside of being a Council Member to see the ins and outs of how it works).  Extensive experience in County government.  And Joshua (non-profit and government experience with a particular focus on sustainability, a salient topic in Howard County). Both also have experience at the community level.  That said, how would either fare on the campaign trail?  From what I hear, Jessica might be the better bet of the two…but will she want to run?

Deb Jung.  Attorney who specializes in counseling non-profits.  First, she lives in the Fourth?  I’ve heard her name in connection with the Fourth but, like Josh T, I just don’t know her that well.  I also hear her name mentioned as a possible Board of Education candidate in ’18.

Now for three more Wilde Lake-focused possibilities:

Regina Clay.  Entrepreneur, trade association executive, former Ulman Administration official and Wilde Lake community activist.  With deep roots and many connections in the community, I could see her considering a run.

Kevin McAliley.  Wilde Lake Village Board Chair and owner of a management consulting firm.  He works rooms like a candidate.  I would be surprised if he isn’t weighing throwing his hat into the ring.

Nancy McCord.  Realtor and CA Board Member. When I saw her asking questions regarding Tax Increment Financing at a fairly recent Village Board meeting, she sounded like someone who was thinking about the future of Columbia’s Downtown…and how she might be able to play a different role there.  I don’t know if she is thinking about it, but I would not be shocked.

Back to the list:

Ellen Flynn Giles.  Does she live in the Fourth too?  I am inclined to believe that a future run on her part, if one were to occur, would involve a Board of Education comeback attempt.  Of the three incumbents who lost in 2016, this author believes that she was the best of the three. I am not trying to condemn with faint praise here.  I was elated about the election of Coombs and Ellis and pleased with Delmont-Small winning the third seat.  That said, I would not dismiss a future Giles run for the BoE out of hand.  But for the 4^th?  I am not seeing it. [Note:  it has since been confirmed that she currently resides in another District].

Alan Klein.  I have seen nothing that would lead me to believe he would be a better candidate now compared to 2010, when he was defeated by Sigaty rather handily in a hard-fought race.  Based on his performance on the CA Board, I would be disinclined to vote for Klein in the General Election should he somehow obtain the Democratic nomination.

Ann DeLacy.  She isn’t a bad person.  I've had a couple of pleasant conversations with her. I just wonder what narratives run through her head sometimes.  I think she had some promise, as a public official, at one time but blew it based on some questionable decisions.  I believe her election to the Council would mean four years of divisive shenanigans at a time when our County needs exactly zero of that.  I am not saying that she would be behind all, most, or some of them…but she does have some issues when it comes to working well with others…or reading a room. 

Honorable Mentions:

Liz Bobo and Lloyd Knowles.  I think their years holding public office are behind them, but they retain a certain base in West Columbia.  Stranger things have happened.

So there you have it, an early look at my home district.

Next up?  Perhaps a combined post on Districts 2 and 3.  We shall see...

Stay tuned, as more will follow.