False Start (with an Update)

So much for the “new spirit of bipartisan cooperation,” a platitudinous phrase delivered, apparently bereft of sincerity, by Maryland’s new Governor, Lawrence Joseph Hogan, Jr.

As my policy and media-attentive readers are all too aware, within hours of launching his Administration, the One-Term Express, Hogan:

- Withdrew regulations that protect Maryland citizens from discrimination, based on sexual orientation and gender identity...

- Failed, in his first Executive Order, to include gender identity “as a grounds for equal opportunity.” [Source: http://equalitymaryland.org/governor-hogans-first-24-hours-start-on-the-wrong-foot-for-lgbt-maryland/]

- And, on another matter, while his move on pulling regulations having to do with phosphorous output was well-received by at least one Democratic State Senator (pump the brakes a little, Senator Mathias), the potential impact of his decision on the health of the Chesapeake Bay and other rivers is not sitting well with environmentally-minded Marylanders.

In short, within days of taking office, Hogan is veering hard right.   This shift is neither promising nor unexpected.

In his Inaugural Address, Hogan stated that we must “set the bar higher.”  Thus far, he is failing in the pursuit of that objective.  Moreover, when he said “Marylanders are hard-wired for inclusiveness,” he is not yet exhibiting evidence of that virtue.  And I would have to imagine that he decided against an appeal to the “better angels of our nature” by his decision to not protect the rights of all of our citizens in his first Executive Order.

Hopefully, others within Hogan’s party will call upon the Governor to live up to the moderate-sounding words he uttered recently in Annapolis.  Perhaps Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman has some thoughts he would like to share on this topic.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Update (1/23/15) from Equality Maryland's FB status update:  "Governor Hogan's office has reached out to Equality Maryland to tell us he has re-issued the Executive Order to include gender identity. It should be publicly available by Monday."

Elections and Consequences

I, for one, am elated that Election Day is fast approaching.  I am looking forward to a respite from campaign analysis; and a shift to writing about other topics of interest. So stay tuned as more will….not so fast.

This one is for progressive-minded Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated HoCo voters who are undecided or possibly Kittleman-leaning in the Howard County Executive race.  Let’s play a game of “What If?”

Let’s assume the following scenario:  Larry Hogan – a B-tier GOP gubernatorial candidate - loses to LG Anthony Brown in November, by a single-digit margin, while Senator Allan Kittleman manages to pull off an upset and is elected the next Howard County Executive. 

Given this set of circumstances, Kittleman immediately becomes the R-to-watch and the front-runner for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2018.  Moreover, he would have a genuine shot at winning, as he is clearly more serious than Hogan (who isn't a slouch, but still...).

So by voting for Kittleman this November, you are helping to position a surprisingly conservative Republican for statewide office…someone who received a failing grade from the Maryland State Education Association while obtaining an “A” from the National Rifle Association and possessing a 100% rating from Maryland Right-to-Life.

Neither a moderate temperament nor a centrist voting record on a couple of issues can obscure the reality that Kittleman is not the progressive choice in the race for Howard County Executive.  So my advice, not that you asked for it, is to take a careful look at the totality of his voting history and issue stances and ask yourself, is this someone who will be the best advocate for families and communities like mine or is there a better choice? 

And will a vote for him now help elect a rather conservative Republican Governor in Maryland in 2018?  Just something to consider.

Oh yes...stay tuned, as more will follow.   

Cabal of the Simple-Minded

So I split for Hispaniola for half of a fortnight and I return to find Brown/Ulman up by only six over Hogan/Rutherford.  

I can only assume some as of yet unnamed madness enveloped the Free State while I was roaming the streets of Santo Domingo, searching for an establishment that served high caliber mofongo.  My old friend and current expat, Slats, recommended a spot 18 miles away in Boca Chica – but the roads were far too treacherous and the moon too high in the sky to hazard such a journey. 

But I digress.  The purveyors of Conventional Wisdom, referenced in the title, would have you believe that the Maryland gubernatorial election should be a cakewalk for the Democratic ticket.  “Safe D” they say. 

I still believe that LG Brown will be our next Governor. That said, at this stage of the game, our Dream Team is coming across a bit more Gamble and Hoitz.  For those who recall that film, it worked out in the end but it damn sure wasn’t pretty.

Caveat: I don’t know the particular methodology of the latest aforementioned survey nor have I explored the internals.   This poll could very well be an outlier.  Other, earlier opinion research from June and July shows a Brown lead in the 15% range.  Personally, as of this writing, I feel the lead is in the 10% ballpark.

My larger point is that Republican candidates for Governor can, and have, won in deep-blue states.   Let’s look at some (fairly) recent examples:

In Vermont in 2000, Gore captured 50.6% of the vote, with Nader pulling in another seven percent; then-Governor Bush finished with 40.7%.  Four years later, Kerry secured 58.9% compared to 38.8% for President Bush.  In 2002, Jim Douglas (a Republican) eked out a 45% plurality and won against a Democratic Lieutenant Governor.

Want a better case study?  Sure, how about Massachusetts.  In 2000, Gore carried the state with 59.8% of the vote with Nader obtaining another 6.4%.  Bush? A mere 32.5%.  In 2004, Kerry crushed Bush 61.9% - 36.8%.  In 2002, some Michigan transplant called Mitt defeated the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (the State Treasurer) by a 49.8% - 44.9% margin.  

How about closer to home?  In 2000, Gore won Maryland with 56.5% while Bush managed only 40.3%.  In 2004, the margin tightened a bit – with Kerry only able to win by 13% (55.9% - 42.9%).  Meanwhile, in 2002, GOPer Bobby Haircut beat a Kennedy, also the state LG, with 51.55% of the vote.

Now, 2002 was an odd election cycle – being the first following 9/11.  That said, non-presidential general elections, with lower turnout, can be grim for Democratic office-seekers.

Here is my take on the political realities:

First, many Democrats who did not participate in the primary will vote for the ticket in November.  They just aren’t focused on the race yet.  The challenge is that they need a reason to pay attention and I don’t believe that the Brown/Ulman team is providing a compelling rationale for activation….at least not yet. 

Beyond that, and this applies to a relatively tiny but important slice of the Democratic electorate, there are still some hurt feelings from a bruising primary.  I believe the vast majority of Mizeur and Gansler voters will come home, but some won’t.  I can see a handful from both camps sitting this one out, with perhaps a small percentage of Mizeur voters voting Libertarian while a few Gansler people cross over to vote for Hogan.  Not hordes of voters mind you, but such races can be decided at the margins, by thousands of votes scattered across the state. 

Perhaps Labor Day will witness a spectacular re-unveiling of Brown/Ulman.  That said, it is a little too quiet, even by August standards.  And those who believe that a built-in D advantage ensures their victory would do well to ponder the political fates of Doug Racine, Shannon O’Brien and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.  Brown/Ulman need to consolidate the Democratic base, appeal to Independents and reachable Rs - starting now - otherwise they might be spending more time in La Romana than Annapolis come January.  Slats can hook them up. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

On Brown and the Case for a Maryland Deal

From time to time, a political campaign comes along that features a serious but relatively uninspiring candidate, who is nonetheless supported by citizens who are inspired by his or her candidacy.  As of this writing, unfortunately, Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown falls into that category.

I am offended by those who claim that the Brown/Ulman campaign has been "gutless" (as one columnist recently opined).  They did run a rather small-c conservative effort.  Avoid high risk & high reward.  Three yards and a cloud of dust. Assume Doug Gansler is too flawed and his positioning too conservative to emerge as a palatable alternative; anticipate that Heather Mizeur will generate a great deal of excitement with the Liberals, but no one else. Don't panic.  Don't deviate from the strategy. Let the fundraising, the ad buys and the institutional/organizational support carry the day.

And it did.  Which might tempt someone in the Brown/Ulman orbit to shout out, "Second verse, same as the first!"  And why not?  Surely the battle for the Democratic nomination would be the tougher fight...why expend political capital against a B-tier GOP gubernatorial nominee like Lawrence "Uncle Lar'" Hogan?

The reasons are straightforward.

First, Hogan may be a second-stringer but, as was witnessed across the state in the primary election, odd things can happen in elections with lower voter participation rates.  Historically, general election turnout is considerably lower in mid-Presidential term election years; and it tends to favor the party that does not control the White House.  I don't have the statewide data in front of me...but in Howard County, in recent cycles, turnout has been just north of 80% in presidential elections and 60%-65% in mid-term elections.  Could a national GOP wave elect Hogan? Highly unlikely, but not impossible.  Running a simple, narrowly-focused turn-out-the D base effort probably puts a hard ceiling of 55% on the Brown/Ulman ticket, and increases the dangers of a handful of missteps knocking the campaign further to the left, away from the more independent-minded voters that will constitute a larger percentage of the November 2014 electorate.  

Second, there is a link between election outcomes and the ability to govern effectively.  Lt. Governor Brown, if elected our next Governor, will want a governing mandate.  I know the ticket has a vision for Maryland, a version of it can be found on the campaign site here. That said, I believe the communications effort behind the advancement of said vision (the overarching narrative and the supporting policy proposals) has been...a little too cautious.  This is a time for boldness, send a clear message that the Democratic Party has substantive ideas to improve the lives of working and middle class Americans.   Folks in Annapolis - and beyond - will take note if Lt. Governor Brown obtains 57%+ of the vote in what is presumed to be a decent year for Republicans nationwide.  O'Malley's high-water mark was 56.2%, and Brown won't exceed that percentage playing small ball.

There was a New Deal and a Fair Deal...why not a Maryland Deal?   Package a combination of progressive ideas on economic growth/job creation and education reform with some populist good government proposals and a renewed call for civic engagement and public service (build upon the Compact with Maryland Veterans).  An amalgamation of red meat for the base and policy positions that appeal to the unaffiliated, the post-partisan, and other persuadables who can be convinced that a Hogan Administration in Maryland would be a recipe for the kind of stagnation found in the District.  
 Moreover, a resounding win will better enable Brown to advance his legislative agenda, and better position him (and his running mate Howard County Executive Ken Ulman) for whatever opportunities might present themselves a bit further down the road.  

If nothing else, having Brown and Ulman out on the campaign trail across the State - in Democratic strong-holds, swing districts and even some marginal R precincts - actively and consistently promoting a larger and compelling vision for the state, offering up the perfect measure of Change and Continuity, well, that would be inspiring.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.