Two Door, Third Party

“Aren’t you the gent from Country Dandy Quarterly?” I called out from behind the wheel to the man in the white linen suit, slouching near the short-term parking at Hagerstown Regional Airport.

“Still have time for fucking badinage?” Slats replied, sneering but not angrily.  “You going to pop the trunk or not?”

Moments later, he was arranged in the passenger seat of my post-post vintage Honda.  “I can’t believe you are still driving this thing,” he remarked.  “You know how difficult it is to travel from La Paz to Washington County?  And we have to ride in this?”

“Paid off since ’06.  And the cassette player still works. You like Billy Squier right?”

He grumbled unintelligibly, but with zest, for a few seconds before rolling down his window and leaning back to feel the highway air. 

After composing himself, he sighed and asked, “You back on that board again?”

“The Wilde Lake Village Board, yes.  Got appointed to serve another term,” I responded matter-of-factly.

“Totally volunteer deal, right?”

“Yeah Slats, it’s not a paid gig.”

“Ha. Sucker,” he snorted.

“You’re just jealous because I don’t get run out of town every couple of years,” I paused.  “So, what’s the latest?  You were vague on the phone.”

“Oh yeah,” he perked up, glancing around the interior of my ride, no doubt looking for listening devices or perhaps loose change.  “I need you to drive me to the airport again Thursday night…if you can…I need to be in Orlando on Friday.”

“What’s down there?  Disney contract?  Jonesing for Epcot?”

“Nah.  Libertarian National Convention.  Helping out the Johnson/Weld ticket.”

“So you are going from semi-retirement to that?  So when did the patron saint of lost causes suggest you get in touch with Governor Johnson?”

“Listen,” he said, holding up a finger for emphasis, “I’m getting a good month-by-month flat rate, a win bonus if he gets the nomination, and a deal where I get a nice structured pay-out for every million votes he gets over 2 million in the general.  And if he wins…”

“A dresser full of ascots?” I interrupted.   

“Oh ye of unrefined sartorial sensibilities,” he shook his head, continuing. “You have two polarizing presumptive major party nominees with high unfavorables.  Clinton will run base-plus with heavier outreach to Latinos as well as independent and moderate Republican women.  Trump will try to consolidate the Republicans who can stand his bombast and trade policy heterodoxy as well as drive up votes among white blue collars who might otherwise tune out of this election.  Both, right now, are weaker among Millenials, who are a natural libertarian constituency. You combine a social progressive with fiscal restraint in one candidate, get Johnson on the debate stage with those two, and the dynamics can flip overnight.  Say what you want, Johnson is ten times more qualified than Perot was, and twenty times saner.”

“So what’s in it for you long-term? If you serve in a Johnson Administration, doesn’t that mean you have to move back to the States?”

“Maybe so,” Slats replied.  “Can’t run Treasury from rural Guatemala.  Spotty email access.”

We both fell into silence, focusing on the road. Heading eastbound on 70, with the sun setting in my rearview mirror, the prospect of Secretary MacCune was undeniably absurd, but only 99.9% impossible in this freakish year.  The margin that was left was sufficiently disquieting for the remainder of the drive to Columbia.

Stay tuned, as more will follow. 

The Sun Missed Their Own Point – Watson Is the Better Choice

The Baltimore Sun showered Courtney Watson with praise in their recent editorial on the Howard County Executive race.  They referred to Watson as “an immensely gifted and dedicated public servant.” They “hope she [Watson] will find many more opportunities to share her talents with the community.”

Yet, they endorsed Allan Kittleman.  Let us examine their rationale for doing so.

They appear to give a great deal of weight to the importance of having something equating to a relative degree of parity between the two parties.  I can understand the innate appeal such a proposition would have among self-described adherents of a good government philosophy.  For such voters, it sounds inherently “fair”…something that might promote moderation and compromise. However, there can still be a “competition of ideas” within a political system where one party is stronger than the other.  Moreover, many states that have more competitive two-party systems than Maryland still witness highly divisive, highly partisan political environments.   

Frankly, their argument would have more merit if Senator Kittleman had decided to run for Governor.  First, he would have been a stronger candidate for that office compared to Larry Hogan. Second, even the Sun editorial stated that “Maryland is stronger when it has two viable political parties…” Note that.  Not “Howard County” specifically but “Maryland” in general.  Kittleman is not running statewide.  At least not in this election cycle.   

It has been established that Senator Kittleman’s voting record is more conservative than his persona.  How, precisely, is his “kind of independence” going to work out with a Democratic County Council and a Democratic state legislature?  Further, wouldn’t a Republican County Executive be cross-pressured by his base to pull to the right on economic issues?  On some social issues?  It seems to be more of a recipe for stagnation and deadlock than a path to move Howard County forward.

By labeling Kittleman a “relatively liberal Republican” and Watson a “relatively conservative Democrat,” the Sun missed two critical points:

First, both are running as progressives.  The key distinction is that Watson is closer to being a true progressive while Kittleman is highlighting certain policy stances in an effort to position himself as one…when he is really fairly conservative on a host of issues (Right to Work, education funding and assault weapons leap to mind).  Second, one can infer from their description of her that Watson is a different kind of Democrat.  Perhaps distinct enough from Mr. Ulman to provide a “fresh approach to leadership of the county?”  I believe so.

The Sun seems to accept the belief that Ken Ulman will be viewed as a good County Executive, “whose legacy will ultimately be seen as having left the county better than he found it.”

And then they use language that might be found in a classic political science tome.  They state that Kittleman isn’t running “as a repudiation of the incumbent.”  Maybe, maybe not.  The point is that if you believe that Ulman’s legacy should be built upon, why would you endorse someone from the opposing political party?  That invites the politics of “preemption,” to use Professor Skowronek’s typology.  If you want to extend his legacy, it makes far more sense to practice the “politics of articulation” and elect someone distinct from, yet affiliated with, the identity of the incumbent. 

The good news is that there is such a candidate.  Her name is Courtney Watson.

In short, I suggest that the Sun editorial board re-read their own endorsement.  Perhaps they should re-think their conclusion.  A careful review of their own editorial might prompt a new one beginning with the phrase: “On second thought….”

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Prophylactic Measures

Knowing only what has been reported in the traditional media, I am in no position to say who, if anyone, is right or wrong in this emerging controversy.

 

This blog deals with politics and perceptions, in case you haven’t noticed. So viewing the matter from such a brutal and cynical perspective, here is what comes to mind:

1.  This isn’t a one or two day story. The Vaillancourt campaign is going to have to contend with some truly bad headlines between now and Election Day.  Stating that you are going to review legal options is just one step; there needs to be a broader and cohesive communications strategy. Even for a non-partisan, down-ballot race such as this, she is going to need to formulate and articulate a simple narrative regarding her comments and actions that makes sense to the average voter.  If she can’t, there is a pathway to a fifth place finish. 

2. Regarding those who voted in favor of the Resolution of Disappointment, the optics appear a little bit sketchy.  Again, I am not going to get into the merits of the Board’s moves.  I just know that some find it interesting that the Board reprimanded Vaillancourt roughly 45 days prior to the primary election (regarding “breaching the confidentiality of closed sessions”) and now 40 days before the general election on this new matter.  Yes, issues come up when they arise.  I am not saying that the other Board members are engaging in any shenanigans, but – based on the timing alone - they are providing grist for the mill for those who believe that their actions are, at least in part, politically motivated.  

3. I have a different perspective than my friend, the Sage of Oakland Mills, MM who argues that Ms. Vaillancourt should take the sensitivity training.    

From a realpolitik view, if she agreed to do so (between now and Election Day), it would appear to be an admission that she crossed a line with her comments. A very risky move.

I concur with the implications of the comment made by Long Reach’s answer to Alan Dershowitz in the aforementioned blog post:  that all Board Members “should have sexual harassment training annually.”   Perhaps the Board can agree to review relevant policies and procedures; of course I am guessing that this might have to wait until after November 4.

Coming soon: another post about timing.  And this one has nothing to do with the Board of Education!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

The Curious Case of Allan Kittleman’s Campaign

First, I have no personal animus toward Senator Kittleman.  He and I have only spoken in-person on one occasion and he was quite pleasant.  He seems reasonably thoughtful.  Moreover, and this is pure speculation-on-stilts, I assume he makes a fine neighbor.  Need to borrow a snow-shovel to get your car out of the driveway?  I am guessing he has a spare and would be glad to help you out.  Anyway, that is how he comes across.

Even if all of this is true, none of it is a reason to vote for him for Howard County Executive. 

He is running a new set of ads that impart the message: vote for the person, not the party.  I don’t buy into that line of thinking. The party to which a person belongs should tell you quite a bit about him or her.  We aren’t born hard-wired as a Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, Green or other.  We choose our partisan affiliation.  Sometimes, over the course of our lives, we re-visit our decisions because we evolve and/or the party changes.  For whatever reason(s), Allan Kittleman decided to stick with the GOP, even in its most recent incarnation – with so much energy coming from its Tea Party wing.

So why did he stay?  Well, this is why I encourage my fellow HoCo denizens to check out the website: www.kittlemanfacts.com.  The reader can see that the reality of his voting record in Annapolis does not exactly square with the moderate image many folks have of Senator Kittleman.  Sure, he tends to adopt more centrist positions on some issues compared to his hard-right colleagues…but take a look at his votes on guns, on education, on the minimum wage, on women’s health issues, and on the environment and one can see that the Senator is actually quite conservative on several important public policy matters.

In addition, he seemed to imply at a candidate forum a few weeks back that a vote for him was a vote to pull the Republican Party in the right (read: correct) direction.  If he really wanted to continue fighting that fight (and again, his voting record will demonstrate that he was aligned with less-than-progressive members of the GOP at least on the issues outlined in the previous paragraph), then why not stay in the State Senate and use that as a forum?  Why not run for re-election instead of seeking another office?    I suppose Kittleman and perhaps his Inner Circle know the answers to those questions.  In any event, that goes to his personal motivations, which need to be distinguished from what he would do in the public sphere, if elected. 

And how can we predict what he might do?  By looking at the choices he has made in the past.  Personally, I believe his decision to remain with the Republican Party and a thorough look at his surprisingly conservative voting record on certain issues are what some like to call “telling facts.”  And while mud can be washed off, facts cling for a very long time. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

Battle of the Network Stars - HoCo Style

Thoughts on the Watson ad, further reflections on the Kittleman ad.  All can be found here:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onO9PzNtxTg

And So It Begins: TV Ads and the County Exec Race

As was covered here, Republican State Senator & County Executive candidate Allan Kittleman launched his air game this week.

I believe this represents the first major strategic mistake by his campaign.

I don’t believe a critical mass of voters, a number likely to comprise a sizable portion of the November 2014 electorate, are paying attention to political news in late July.  Some voters are keyed in, but not enough to warrant a significant television ad buy in the post-primary/pre-Labor Day weekend timeframe.

From a strictly technical perspective, the “[select] person-on-the-street” approach of the 30-second spot I viewed last night makes sense.  Third party validation by a few Independent and Democratic voters is smart, in light of the HoCo party affiliation numbers.  The production quality of the ad was…OK.  Not polished, not terrible. Somewhere between Steven Spielberg and Mark Borchardt.  The messaging construct was straightforward “I am a [D/I] but I am voting for Kittleman...” About what one would expect from this sort of commercial.

Personally, I think he is flushing cash.  These spots are what you run in September… with a heavier, more concentrated, advertising buy.  I am assuming the Kittleman high command discussed the timing and the explored the merits of an early launch. There is a legitimate case to be made: frame the narrative of the fall campaign now, save some funds by going up when it is less expensive, maybe/hopefully get a spike with Name ID and a more favorable ballot test to help improve fundraising sooner than later, etc…

Note that I said that there is a legitimate case, but not a compelling one.  There are other, better ways to spend time and resources in July and August...especially when:

a) Funds are limited (Watson enjoys a substantial fundraising advantage over Kittleman) and 

b) When the ad is not a game-changer.  The ad I watched did not fall into that category.   

The bottom line: if too few people are watching, what impact are the TV ads really having?   

By October, the Kittleman campaign is going to wish they didn’t go up on the air so early.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.      

Brief Thoughts on a Shortened Campaign - Corey Andrews and the HoCo BoE

I am going to limit my commentary on Corey Andrews’ decision to suspend his campaign for the Howard County Board of Education to an off-the-top, visceral response.

It was a bone-headed move.

He should have stayed in the race.  Once you are in, you stay in and fight.  I see no advantage to his cause in removing himself from the field (figuratively speaking of course, as his name will remain on the Primary Election ballot).  Given the rationale he stated in his suspension e-mail, he implicitly acknowledges ceding the field to people he refers to as “bad guys.”  OK, let’s play out this line of thought.  If Mr. Andrews truly believes that “the people of Howard County deserve better,” then wouldn’t it be great if they had alternatives?  Oops. Well, look for one of them on the bench, because he opted to stop playing. That is the opposite of a rallying cry.

Perhaps he is hoping his self-imposed suspension will draw more attention to the race in general and all of the recent HoCo BoE controversies in particular.  If that was the calculus, I don’t think someone carried the two.  It just doesn’t work out.  

As I wrote in my recent post on the Howard County Board of Education candidates, Mr. Andrews did not emerge as “one-to-watch.”  I thought then, as I do now, that better choices exist.  Had I been an Andrews supporter, I would be left feeling disappointed by his decision.  As it is, I shrug, shake my head and move on. 

District 13? Coming up…soon.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.