The Sun Missed Their Own Point – Watson Is the Better Choice

The Baltimore Sun showered Courtney Watson with praise in their recent editorial on the Howard County Executive race.  They referred to Watson as “an immensely gifted and dedicated public servant.” They “hope she [Watson] will find many more opportunities to share her talents with the community.”

Yet, they endorsed Allan Kittleman.  Let us examine their rationale for doing so.

They appear to give a great deal of weight to the importance of having something equating to a relative degree of parity between the two parties.  I can understand the innate appeal such a proposition would have among self-described adherents of a good government philosophy.  For such voters, it sounds inherently “fair”…something that might promote moderation and compromise. However, there can still be a “competition of ideas” within a political system where one party is stronger than the other.  Moreover, many states that have more competitive two-party systems than Maryland still witness highly divisive, highly partisan political environments.   

Frankly, their argument would have more merit if Senator Kittleman had decided to run for Governor.  First, he would have been a stronger candidate for that office compared to Larry Hogan. Second, even the Sun editorial stated that “Maryland is stronger when it has two viable political parties…” Note that.  Not “Howard County” specifically but “Maryland” in general.  Kittleman is not running statewide.  At least not in this election cycle.   

It has been established that Senator Kittleman’s voting record is more conservative than his persona.  How, precisely, is his “kind of independence” going to work out with a Democratic County Council and a Democratic state legislature?  Further, wouldn’t a Republican County Executive be cross-pressured by his base to pull to the right on economic issues?  On some social issues?  It seems to be more of a recipe for stagnation and deadlock than a path to move Howard County forward.

By labeling Kittleman a “relatively liberal Republican” and Watson a “relatively conservative Democrat,” the Sun missed two critical points:

First, both are running as progressives.  The key distinction is that Watson is closer to being a true progressive while Kittleman is highlighting certain policy stances in an effort to position himself as one…when he is really fairly conservative on a host of issues (Right to Work, education funding and assault weapons leap to mind).  Second, one can infer from their description of her that Watson is a different kind of Democrat.  Perhaps distinct enough from Mr. Ulman to provide a “fresh approach to leadership of the county?”  I believe so.

The Sun seems to accept the belief that Ken Ulman will be viewed as a good County Executive, “whose legacy will ultimately be seen as having left the county better than he found it.”

And then they use language that might be found in a classic political science tome.  They state that Kittleman isn’t running “as a repudiation of the incumbent.”  Maybe, maybe not.  The point is that if you believe that Ulman’s legacy should be built upon, why would you endorse someone from the opposing political party?  That invites the politics of “preemption,” to use Professor Skowronek’s typology.  If you want to extend his legacy, it makes far more sense to practice the “politics of articulation” and elect someone distinct from, yet affiliated with, the identity of the incumbent. 

The good news is that there is such a candidate.  Her name is Courtney Watson.

In short, I suggest that the Sun editorial board re-read their own endorsement.  Perhaps they should re-think their conclusion.  A careful review of their own editorial might prompt a new one beginning with the phrase: “On second thought….”

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

So What is New? (Post Sun CE Debate Edition)

It has been a hectic and (potentially) extremely productive 24+ hours.

I couldn't attend the most recent Howard County Executive forum in person, but I followed it via live stream.  The feed was a little choppy and there were some shampoo commercials interspersed between the back-and-forth (frankly, the candidates should have done live reads, Allan Kittleman pitching Prell in front of an audience - in the middle of his remarks - would have been a hoot).  But here are my primary takeaways:

1) I can't speak to the atmosphere in the room, but the debate sounded mostly positive and issue-focused.  While some have been decrying the supposed horrific negativity of this campaign, I heard a forum that was largely civil and focused on substantive matters.  I can't recall any low blows or mudslinging. It was a fact-driven discussion.  Sure, there was some comparative activity occurring, but nothing under-handed. Just a frank exchange of ideas on two governing visions by two candidates.

2) Who won?  Strictly in terms of such esoteric debate criteria as controlling the space, rhetorical abilities, and appearing confident vs. defensive (going to the "strong leader" attribute), I believe there was a winner.  In my estimation, of the two, Courtney Watson came across as the more serious, policy-driven, collected, and better prepared to take on the challenges of the position. In short, Watson won the forum.  By contrast, I thought that Kittleman sounded a little thin-skinned when answering certain questions (this was particularly apparent during the assault weapon discussion, he might have been going for "emphatic" but i think he veered closer to "aggravated" than he intended during the course of his reply).

Further, I think he lapsed a bit into Annapolis-speak (similar to Beltwayese) during his education response.

3) Kittleman made the biggest unforced error of the night, one that undermines his argument about his ability to work across party lines.  During the re-zoning/referendum conversation (this occurred around the 18-minute mark of the forum), he drifted into a discussion about how Maryland has a "one-party system" in Annapolis and how if his name had been off a bill that he sponsored, it probably would have passed instead of stalling in the House of Delegates, which is what happened.

So if he faces these obstacles as a Senator, who serves in Annapolis, won't these same obstacles exist for him if he was elected as our next County Executive? How would these political realities impact his ability to represent our citizens? To work for our interests? I think these are legitimate concerns.

This opened the door for Watson, in her closing remarks, to point to her 93% success rate with her primary sponsored bills passing the Howard County Council, compared to Kittleman's 8% success rate with his primary sponsored bills passing the General Assembly.

Building consensus is important in representative government.  Ideas don't become policy by themselves, it takes skillful collaboration to shape them into legislation that can win the votes necessary to take effect.  Watson has a much stronger record of achievement in this regard.  And this skill-set matters - it impacts the ability to craft effective solutions on education policy, on public safety, on job creation, on environmental concerns, and a host of other policy matters. 

I believe Watson demonstrated, once again, her readiness to work for Howard County.

I hope undecided voters have the opportunity to watch the debate, as well as the League of Women Voters forums, as they make their choices in the days ahead.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Five/Seven/Five - Distilling Narratives for Time-Pressed Readers

Progressive Values
Experienced Leadership
We Win with Watson

Next up...limericks???

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Reviewing Two Resumes

For the sake of today’s entry, let us re-conceptualize the campaign season as an extended job interview process.  Albeit one with slightly more hand shaking, parade marching and door knocking compared to the amount of each undertaken by your average applicant for a corporate gig.

Howard County has the opportunity to hire a new County Executive this year.  With that in mind, the electorate – as the hiring authority – may wish to consider one question above all others:  “Of the two candidates for the position, who is best equipped to move Howard County forward over the next four years?”

In my estimation, the answer is Courtney Watson.  Here is why:

1) Her background is much stronger for the County Executive position. 

Given the specific responsibilities of the office, her experience on the Board of Education and her long – and ongoing – service on the County Council have provided her with the expertise that Howard County needs when Ken Ulman leaves the post.  It is my belief that her knowledge of, and involvement with, the issues and solutions that directly impact the lives of Howard County citizens are considerably more extensive compared to her opponent, Senator Allan Kittleman.  I am not calling the Senator a slouch.  I am simply articulating my perspective that Watson’s record of relevant accomplishments is quite impressive.  Our schools and our county are widely respected, and that isn’t by accident.  It takes brainpower, hard work and resolve.  Watson has all of those attributes.   Of course, one can neither credit – nor blame – the state of the County on any one individual.  But when it comes time for our next County Executive to sit at the table, tackling serious challenges with community members, business owners, government officials, and others, I have a great deal of confidence in Watson’s ability to find solutions that improve our quality of life in Howard County. 

2) Her vision for the County is thoughtful and well attuned to the needs of our residents. 

I have read through both of their platforms.  Watson’s successes and proposals underscore her readiness for the County Executive post.  For example, education is an enormously important matter, and Watson’s ideas on enhanced technology utilization in the schools, support for an International Baccalaureate program, and combatting funding inequities are bold yet realistic…and demonstrate that she fully understands the need to address current challenges while keeping an eye on future. 

By comparison (since competitive elections, by their nature, compel them), Kittleman articulates some decent suggestions.  However, I wonder about his ability to accomplish what he says he wants to achieve.  I think Watson is better positioned to turn her ideas into actual programs and services that benefit Howard County residents.  Moreover, he champions a couple of activities on his website that strike me as being a little…off.  For example, he mentions his sponsorship of “Right to Work” legislation.  I can see that playing better in other parts of Maryland, but not so much in Howard County.    

Winding back to the original metaphor, I believe Watson delivers a better answer to the key question, “If hired, what do you want to accomplish?”  If I had to grade their replies to that query based on the body of work presented thus far, I would likely assign Kittleman a B or B- with Watson receiving an A (sorry, I don’t give out A+s). 

And this is Howard County…why not choose excellent when excellent is an option? 

So, I would extend the job offer to Ms. Watson via my vote for her for County Executive.  It is my hope that a majority of Howard County voters will do likewise. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Battle of the Network Stars - HoCo Style

Thoughts on the Watson ad, further reflections on the Kittleman ad.  All can be found here:

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onO9PzNtxTg

And So It Begins: TV Ads and the County Exec Race

As was covered here, Republican State Senator & County Executive candidate Allan Kittleman launched his air game this week.

I believe this represents the first major strategic mistake by his campaign.

I don’t believe a critical mass of voters, a number likely to comprise a sizable portion of the November 2014 electorate, are paying attention to political news in late July.  Some voters are keyed in, but not enough to warrant a significant television ad buy in the post-primary/pre-Labor Day weekend timeframe.

From a strictly technical perspective, the “[select] person-on-the-street” approach of the 30-second spot I viewed last night makes sense.  Third party validation by a few Independent and Democratic voters is smart, in light of the HoCo party affiliation numbers.  The production quality of the ad was…OK.  Not polished, not terrible. Somewhere between Steven Spielberg and Mark Borchardt.  The messaging construct was straightforward “I am a [D/I] but I am voting for Kittleman...” About what one would expect from this sort of commercial.

Personally, I think he is flushing cash.  These spots are what you run in September… with a heavier, more concentrated, advertising buy.  I am assuming the Kittleman high command discussed the timing and the explored the merits of an early launch. There is a legitimate case to be made: frame the narrative of the fall campaign now, save some funds by going up when it is less expensive, maybe/hopefully get a spike with Name ID and a more favorable ballot test to help improve fundraising sooner than later, etc…

Note that I said that there is a legitimate case, but not a compelling one.  There are other, better ways to spend time and resources in July and August...especially when:

a) Funds are limited (Watson enjoys a substantial fundraising advantage over Kittleman) and 

b) When the ad is not a game-changer.  The ad I watched did not fall into that category.   

The bottom line: if too few people are watching, what impact are the TV ads really having?   

By October, the Kittleman campaign is going to wish they didn’t go up on the air so early.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.      

Watson - Kittleman and General Election Forum I

From the east, I rolled into the parking lot adjacent to the Owen Brown Interfaith Center, just ahead of what looked like a derecho tumbling in from the west.  The skies, like the two McDonald’s cheeseburgers I ruefully scarfed down for my dinner-in-a-Honda, added to a sense of foreboding.   Would the power go out at my destination, the aforementioned Center that, at that very evening, was hosting the PFLAG-sponsored Howard County Executive Candidate Forum?  Was my last-minute gastronomical choice something I would regret?  Too many questions, too many onions.

Once safely inside the building, I chatted with some friends, old and new, and after hearing about the transcendence of basil ice cream at Baltimore’s Woodberry Kitchen (note: must return there soon), I took my seat.   The Forum, featuring Democratic County Council Member Courtney Watson and Republican State Senator Allan Kittleman, was about to begin.

   

Let’s skip to the key take-away for a moment. Fundamentally, I think both candidates had good nights.   Technically, they both performed at a high level. But this is America and we like winners and losers, victors and vanquished.   Ties are for the World Cup.

So, I thought, if I was a candidate for County Executive, whose evening would I have rather had.  If ties go to the runner, in Howard County, they go to the Democrat.  And I think Watson beat Kittleman by half-a-step, so she would be the winner.  Here is why:

But first, before I get into any specific hits or misses, it is noteworthy that the very first question dealt with development and the Inner Arbor and both candidates voiced support for the Inner Arbor Plan.  According to my hand-written notes, Kittleman said that the Plan would be “a good thing for Howard County” while Watson indicated that she was “excited about the Inner Arbor Plan.”  There you have it, bipartisan support for the Inner Arbor.  Both candidates expressed hope for a productive implementation process moving forward. Let’s hope that everyone is listening on that point.

Rather than do a topic-by-topic summary/analysis, which Amanda Yeager did with her usual skill and panache (the article can be found right here), I will focus on some of the prevailing themes and other notable moments.

Watson’s responses to the moderator’s questions tended to follow a logical progression: respond directly to the query posed, lay out the facts (and figures) as well as the relevant history on the issue, shift to the future by talking about a path forward with specific programs and policy proposals.  Very rational, very efficient.  The message is clear: Watson has a serious command of the issues facing Howard County and the knowledge to work out practical solutions to these challenges.

Kittleman’s replies tended to be broader, with more of an emphasis on a combination of general principles (including “predictability for businesses,” “we need people to have a seat at the table,” and we must “live within our means”) with anecdotal information/mini-vignettes to illustrate/support a larger narrative.  He would frequently pivot to his experience working at both the county and state levels and talk about working across party lines.  Overall, it made for an effective, more story-driven, presentation.

But now we come to the central dilemma facing the Kittleman campaign, in stressing his independence, he is highlighting that from which he is running away – an increasingly conservative Republican Party, a party to which he still belongs, a party that is out-of-touch with the values of many Howard County voters.  To listen to him speak is to hear a voice from the past…a reminder that once-upon-a-time there was a Ford/Rockefeller wing of the GOP.  He states he is running to reclaim the party, but why should the electorate get involved in his realignment efforts? Voters already have a progressive choice in Courtney Watson and the Democratic Party.  Why vote Republican in light of the GOP's platform and priorities?  I don’t believe that Kittleman has a compelling answer to that query, so he triangulates, hoping that his identification with, and advocacy for, certain progressive causes will peel away just enough votes in November. 

Ultimately, I believe Kittleman is asking for voters to take one leap too many, and in the wrong direction.  I understand the frustration he is experiencing with today’s GOP and commend him for wanting to bring the party back from the brink.  But given a choice between a candidate representing a progressive party; and a candidate from a conservative party, who is more likely to be cross-pressured by a right-wing base of supporters, I think the vast majority of Democrats, most independent-minded moderates, and even some Republicans, will choose Courtney Watson.  At least this is where I believe we are headed.  Kittleman has approximately 118 days to shake things up and, personally, I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

Highlights for both candidates:

I thought Watson showed some passion when talking about mental health as a public crisis in “Howard County and beyond.”  The listener came away with the impression that she really wanted to work on this challenge, and that same determination carried over to her response on the next question, which focused on LGBTQ homelessness.

Apparently some in the audience came away with a different perception of Kittleman’s closing remarks.  They thought he sounded too strident, too defensive, and/or talked too much about himself.  I get where they are coming from, but I thought he demonstrated genuine passion (there is that word again) when he discussed equal rights and the importance of those values and his fight to defend such principles (with his support for Maryland’s Question 6 being the focus of his statement).  

I believe the highlights of both candidates elevated the discourse.  Kudos to both.  

  

Question from the mailbox: “So did anyone go negative?”

Not too many elbows were thrown.  Kittleman was the first to venture in what could be described as comparative campaigning.  In response to a question that centered about how best to preserve the character of our communities, in light of development in certain areas, and what would the candidates do in terms of housing options, he basically said that the County’s plan regarding housing “is not working.”

Watson decided to shine the spotlight on some votes that Kittleman took; votes against funding a local public safety training center and against a police helicopter.  Kittleman’s response came across as just a little defensive, just a bit shaky. 

Both statements were well within the bounds of fair play.  No low blows. The exchanges allowed the voters to learn a little more about the two candidates.

Overall, it was a well-organized event that covered a wide range of important issues and those in attendance heard some substantive responses.  Both candidates probably walked away feeling as though they largely accomplished what they set out to achieve. It marked a strong start to the General Election Forum season.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

  

Reading Between the Lines

This post was supposed to be about the League of Women Voters of Howard County - Board of Education Candidate Forum.  The event was well-run by a team of...ninjas? My notes are almost entirely illegible. Blame it on a pho broth spill. Let's assume I meant "moderators."

I penned about 350 words but the story lacked both a hook and a core, so that assignment is going to be put aside...for now.  I might craft a BoE endorsement post, but I would need to winnow the field down to a top four first.  As of this moment, the best I can do is three tiers: Probably, Probably Not, and Heck No. If anyone wants to make a pitch for their favorite(s), feel free to comment below or send me an email or message.

There is some positive news that deserves attention: A new library and senior center is coming to Elkridge.  Being a huge fan of libraries in general...and Howard County's acclaimed library system in particular... I am elated that Council County member Courtney Watson's determined efforts - along with Howard County Library System CEO Valerie Gross and the support of community leaders such as Jon Weinstein (who testified in favor of the Elkridge library upgrade at a recent budget hearing) - have produced big results that will enhance the quality of life for many of our residents.  Great news indeed.

Relevant coverage can be found here and here. 

This is exactly the sort of leadership that Howard County needs: smart, practical, hard-working, collaborative and outcome-oriented.  And of course I would be remiss not to recognize County Executive Ken Ulman for increasing the funding necessary to move ahead on the library and senior center.  

Looking at the leadership descriptors I used in the first sentence of the previous paragraph, perhaps this post was about the Board of Education after all.     

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

A Baker's Dozen (Minus One) - Endorsement Edition

Time to engage in some Right Mindfulness.  The four-mile jog this morning definitely helped reframe my thinking…a pouring of a fresh, hot cup o’ perspective.

So let us focus on Maryland's District 12 today, my home district.  But first some quick thoughts:

Yesterday, I attended the Thurgood Marshall Democratic Club of Howard County candidate forum/endorsement meeting.  It was an absolutely gorgeous April morning and, although woefully bereft of my coffee, spirits were high.  Prime parking near the hotel that was hosting the gathering was tight…but another driver waved me into a spot, although we arrived at roughly the same time.  As she drove past, I realized the driver was a candidate.  We briefly exchanged pleasantries.  Total class act.

This positive energy continued through TMDC President Ethel Hill’s opening remarks and County Council member Courtney Watson’s statement.  The peaceful easy feeling ended abruptly…like a car door being slammed on the third phalange…when Lisa Markovitz (County Council District 1 candidate) stated: “village centers should be retained, if possible.”  [Emphasis mine]. Cue record screech sound effect.  This is where the reasonable-seeming mask, and it is a mask, is coming off that campaign.   Maybe it was a verbal gaffe on her part…but I think it reveals a window into a “let’s go back to the past” mentality that is bad for area merchants, bad for local shoppers and bad for Howard County as we seek to support existing residents and businesses…and attract new ones…to help keep our communities vital.     

Let us return to District 12. No sense in allowing the ill humors to gain a foothold.  Here are my endorsements for the Democratic Primary Election.  There are three of them (the 12^th is a multi-member state legislative House District that elects three Delegates).

There is a question that pollsters ask, there are a few variations but it boils down to: “Does Candidate X understand the problems of people like me?”  I believe that Brian Bailey not only gets the challenges that families deal with in our district, but that he will be a capable advocate for our families in Annapolis.  I’ve been to multiple forums and he consistently presents a thoughtful plan for addressing some of the most pressing concerns facing Howard and Baltimore counties…ranging from education to job creation to transportation to environmental issues.  I hope that voters in our district take a good look at Mr. Bailey’s platform and consider the wide range of support that he is receiving from several progressive organizations. I’ve been around candidates long enough to sort the wheat from the chaff, the sincere from the phony, and the workhorses from the showhorses…I believe that Brian Bailey is the real-deal, ready to roll up his sleeves, and toil for the 12^th. I stand four-square behind Mr. Bailey and I hope he is nominated in June and elected in November.

Several months ago, I would have thought it unlikely that I would write the following words, but I am supporting Clarence Lam as well.  I had some early concerns about his positioning, but he has proven to be a formidable candidate. He must have a teleporter because he is all over the District.  He is smart, hard-working and has an impressive background as a health care practitioner (Dr. Lam is a “board-certified physician in preventative medicine at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health”) and as a public policy expert, having worked at the federal and state levels.  He is also active in the local community through multiple organizations.  The potential is there for a distinguished career in public service and that is why I support Clarence Lam for Delegate.

I wanted to endorse Dr. Terri Hill earlier, but something held me back. Perhaps some reflexive contrarian impulse kicked in when the Democratic establishment lined up in support of her candidacy (author’s note: I have a general predisposition in favor of insurgent campaigns).  That said, focusing on her stellar qualifications, her broad and deep knowledge about health care, and her commitment to social justice, I am convinced that Dr. Hill would be a great state legislator.  Harvard smart with an easy-going personality and accessible communications style, Terri Hill is ready, from “Day One” as the saying goes, to be an excellent representative for the 12^th District.

If I had a fourth vote, it would be for Adam Sachs.  A low-key fellow with some bold progressive ideas…with the moxie to quote Lou Reed as he did at a recent forum…it would be interesting to see what someone like him could do in Annapolis. 

In the interest of riding this endorphin wave for as long as possible, I am not going to comment at length on the other six Democratic candidates at this time. I have already written about disbarred attorney Michael Gisriel.  I think Cohen is a complete non-starter. The others (Ebersole, Stewart, Dongarra and McGuirk-Spence) all have positives and negatives, some have more of the latter than the former.  But that is a discussion for another day, if necessary.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

         

The Forum (Part Two) - A County in Bloom

One of the recurring themes at the League of Women Voters of Howard County's candidate forum was how best to manage growth.

Having conducted research on behalf of economic development organizations in regions that are trying to rebound after years of decline, I know of many municipal and county officials who would love to swap their problems for ours.

I've spoken with residents in areas facing truly tough times: dwindling populations, tighter budgets, higher crime rates, crumbling roads, major employers shutting down or cutting back...leading to diminished job opportunities.  They love their communities too, but many are debating the wisdom of staying.  They want to be part of a turn-around story but they have kids to raise or they simply want to be able to walk around their neighborhood without tensing up when they hear footfalls on the sidewalk behind them.

They want a quality of life similar to what we have in Howard County.

So the questions posed to the County Executive candidates dealt with such matters as the impact of growth on transportation and our infrastructure, on our school system, on housing.

[Before I go any further, I feel the need to disclose that I support Courtney Watson for County Executive.  So if you are expecting a consistently impartial, non-partisan analysis, you are in the wrong place.]

But back to the thread.   

First, the County Executive race. Strictly from the vantage point of performance: both County Council member Watson and State Senator Allan Kittleman did well. I would have been stunned otherwise. Both are smart, capable public officials.

It really comes down to who has the best experience for the position and best vision for the County.  This is where Watson's service as a member of the County Board of Education is hugely important.  Howard County public schools have a reputation for excellence and there is a concern that growth will put pressures on our education system.  As the Republican candidates for County Council (District One) noted during their panel discussion, our schools attract families and businesses, this drives economic growth and helps create the highly desirable communities that we have in Howard County.  Thus, having the in-depth understanding that Watson possesses on educational matters is an incredibly important attribute and a key point of differentiation between her and Senator Kittleman.

Moreover, when given the opportunity to make closing statements, Sen. Kittleman chose to talk about his father's work on civil rights, which was both commendable and courageous.  Again, putting on my political consultant hat, voters generally prefer to hear about the future than the past.  Tell us what you plan on doing. So when Watson spoke about keeping Howard County a "great place to live, work and play" and how she was poised to "help solve the challenges of the future" - I believe her forward-looking orientation is more aligned with voter concerns.  Kittleman should have pivoted from talking about the past to his vision for the future, but he did not do so.  At least I don't see anything like that in my notes.

I really wanted to cover the County Council - District One discussion in this post, but it looks like we are going to have a trilogy.   

Stay tuned, as more will follow.
  

Clash of the Titans

Every so often, it is important to get the adrenaline riled.  Otherwise, the tedium sets in.  Once that happens, sloth and melancholia tend to lurk about, shambling listlessly through dimly lit alleyways. No sense inviting them over.  

For the politically-attuned, General Election Day offers the prospect of serious action, excitement of the first order.  In 2014 anno Domini, in our corner of the known universe, the marquee countywide general election matchup will be County Council member Courtney Watson (D) vs. State Senator Allan Kittleman (R) in the race to succeed the outgoing County Executive, Ken Ulman.   

This is our Ali – Frazier.

Even with historical trends favoring the hypothesis that 2014 will be a decent Republican year, Howard County Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 3 to 2 margin (93,354 registered Ds as compared to 56,285 registered Rs).

The Watson campaign, adopting the structures proposed in Professor Stephen Skowronek’s seminal work, The Politics Presidents Make, is practicing the politics of Articulation.  She is assuming that the current County Executive’s regime is resilient, and will be viewed as such through November.  In which case, affiliating with the current Administration makes the most sense.  Her campaign’s messaging reflects a theme of continuity (“continuing the progress in Howard County”).  Watson’s promise is that she will use her expertise to move the County forward, charting her own course yet following a path not too dissimilar from the one chosen by Ulman.

Her challenge is establishing her own brand in the minds of voters.  At the presidential level, sometimes those who adopt the politics of articulation (“orthodox-innovators” to use Skowronek’s descriptor) fare quite well (Theodore Roosevelt) while others have more difficulty adapting to changing circumstances (George H.W. Bush).  The good news for Watson is that she is a known entity with her own record of accomplishments and that, as of this writing, Howard County voters are less likely to be disenchanted with the state of the county as compared to the state of the state, or the state of the nation. 

Meanwhile, the Kittleman campaign is banking on the politics of Pre-emption.  They recognize that the party affiliation numbers are not in their favor and are downplaying the Republican label, at least outside of Western HoCo.  Their theme is that Kittleman is a “proven Independent leader.” He is promoting his support for marriage equality and reminding voters about his family’s long-standing commitment to civil rights.  In short, he is not running as a conservative Republican.  He has little choice. His electoral predicament is not dissimilar from the one facing Nixon in '68, or Clinton in '92...both of whom were candidates belonging to the non-dominant order of their time.  

The Kittleman strategy is to work for a heavy Republican turnout in County Council District Five and hope for a depressed Democratic turnout countywide.   Unfortunately for his campaign, the one true swing district in the County – Council District One – is held by one Courtney Watson, who has represented Eastern Howard County on the Council since 2006.   If Kittleman can’t win in the First, he is, in all probability, doomed. 

So who will win?  The smart money is on Courtney Watson.   If Democratic turnout is 60% or higher, Watson should win.  60,000 votes should be sufficient for victory this time around, and Ulman garnered 66,121 four years ago in his rout of Trent Kittleman…in what was, nationally, a Republican election cycle.  Sixty percent of 93,354 registered Democrats works out to 56,012 votes…that means that Watson would only need 4,000 votes among Republicans, unaffiliated and “other” voters to reach the 60,000 figure.  Even assuming a two percent under-vote for that particular office, 60% Democratic turnout overall should elect Watson as our next County Executive.

With 60% Democratic turnout, Kittleman will have a tough time cobbling together a coalition that would approach 50% plus one.  His hope rests in a Democratic turnout at or below 50%.  If that occurs, and if Republicans follow the party-line and turn out in sufficient numbers (65%+ GOP turnout; 90% - 10% for the Senator) and if Independents account for approximately 25% of the electorate and if they break 8 – 5 for Kittleman, and if he pulls a slightly higher percentage of Democratic voters into his column (15%) than Watson does among Republicans (10%), then yes, Kittleman could emerge with between 50.1% and 51.5%, with 52% most likely being his hard ceiling.

Notice the number of “ifs” in that paragraph?

Watson’s ceiling is closer to 60%.... and consists of far fewer ifs.  She needs to energize the base.  Turning to elements beyond the direct control of her campaign, it would be helpful to her efforts if the best Democratic candidates emerged victorious in the swing districts in the June primary elections…nominees who can motivate Democrats to cast their ballots in the General Election while also appealing to Independent voters.  Specifically, I am thinking about Howard County Council District One as well as the State House of Delegates District 9B.  I have some thoughts as to the ideal Democratic nominees for both of those races.  I will share them in a later post.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.