I was leveraging my synergies* a couple of hours ago, and I came
across the latest Goucher poll on the gubernatorial race, which has Larry Hogan up
54% to 32% over Ben Jealous. Side note: six
days in the field and you couldn’t hit an N of 500 LVs? Come on! This is
outrageous! Fast pivot: I digress.
Should Democrats be concerned about this development? While
the current snapshot reveals a less than spectacular picture for the
challenger, there remains plenty of time for positive movement.
The debate offers an excellent opportunity for voters to
see Jealous as a potential Governor. A solid performance by Jealous (and/or a
weak showing by Hogan) can bring many Democratic voters back home as well as
provide more Unaffiliateds with a reason to vote for change. A thoughtful debate plan, well-executed, can
shift the dynamic of the entire campaign and result in considerable favorable earned
media attention for Jealous.
The Jealous campaign has been conserving resources for the
post-Labor Day push. In a sense, the General Election battle has only just been
fully joined, and this work may not be reflected in the polls until October.
Hogan garnering the support of 38% of Maryland Democrats may
sound ominous, but at this stage, it’s a manageable challenge. Any generic right-of-center Republican
candidate for Governor running against a generic progressive Democratic
candidate for Governor is going to pull 10% - 15% of the Democratic vote. While Republicans constitute a smaller slice
of the Maryland electorate, they tend to be far more cohesive and they fall in line. Registered Democrats, who comprise almost 55%
of the MD electorate, include a number of so-called moderates who will engage
in ticket-splitting…for whatever reason(s).
Jealous can still win even if he loses 25% of the Democratic vote. It would be a close election, but with high D
turnout and by winning at least 35% of the Independents, Jealous only needs to
obtain 75% of the Democratic vote…bringing Hogan down from 38% to 25%...that is, as they say, quite do-able.
Many voters don’t know, yet, how Trumpian Hogan is on
certain issues. Hogan is the one who vetoed paid sick leave for Maryland
workers. Hogan is the one who fought against investing in renewable energy –
vetoing a measure good for the environment as well as the economy. Hogan is the one who stood side-by-side with
Trump against Syrian refugees seeking a safe harbor. Hogan is the one who lost Discovery
Communications, costing Maryland 1,300 jobs and leaving our state with only
three Fortune 500 companies. Hogan might
sound like a Democrat at times, but it’s not about how he talks, it’s about his actions…which
on a host of key issues are those of a fairly conservative (and not
particularly effective) Republican.
The key is executing a compelling communications strategy
that inspires the base to turnout and convinces enough Unaffiliateds that
Jealous is the better bet for the future. It’s not rocket science, but it does
require thought, hard work, and a fair wind.
This race is far from over. Don’t
believe anyone who claims it is.
In solidarity.
* My adapted euphemism for drinking coffee and perusing the news before
I actually start working…or for when I am taking a nap.
From the responses that Hogan provided to pre-2014 questionnaires by the Baltimore Sun and the Maryland Catholic Conference, it should have been obvious to the press and politically-aware people that he was no moderate. The Sun asked candidates whether they favored or opposed certain specific bills that the legislature had dealt with between 2011 and 2014. Hogan provided no answer on bills concerning the Dream Act, congressional redistricting, marriage equality, and adding table games to casinos. But he said NO to bills concerning repeal of the death penalty (SB276 of 2013), offshore wind (HB226 of 2013), gun control (SB281 of 2013), a gas tax to provide funds for transportation (HB1515 of 2013), a minimum wage increase (HB295 of 2014), marijuana decriminalization (SB364 of 2014), a ban on transgender discrimination (SB212 of 2014), requiring combined reporting of income (SB395 and HB1298 of 2014), and public campaign financing (HB418 and SB691 of 2014). Anyone can find these bills on the Maryland legislature's website. The Maryland Catholic Conference in that same year asked candidates if they agreed with that group's position on five different issues. The first three concerned support for further restrictions on late-term abortions, opposition to physician-assisted suicide, and support for tax credits for education. Hogan expressed agreement with them on all three of these matters. He is so in agreement with the latter the money he puts in the budget bill for nonpublic schools seems to go up every year.
ReplyDeleteThis is just a start in what I could provide in defining he views of the real Hogan. He can pretend to be a moderate, but, on the above and other matters, it's all pretense.