One of my favorite campaign books of all time was penned by
the journalist, author, and playwright Arthur T. Hadley, who, three years ago, passed at the age
of 91.
He lived a full and remarkable life, having served his country in World War II in the European theatre, for which he was awarded the Purple Heart and Silver Star, before entering the realm of
journalism, where he continued his public service. He was also briefly an operative, laboring
mightily on behalf of Adlai Stevenson as his press secretary in the ’56
presidential campaign. So he had
experience working both for and against Eisenhower, albeit in considerably
different capacities.
The book is entitled, “The Invisible Primary,” and
sub-titled, “The Inside Story of the Other Presidential Race: The Making of the
Candidate” and it was published in 1976, the first Post-Watergate presidential
election cycle. While Teddy White had
already written multiple “The Making of the President” tomes by the time Hadley
began work on his analysis, it is important to note the distinctions. White focused largely, but not entirely, on
the delegate-selection stages of the campaigns (primaries, caucuses, etc…), the
Conventions, and the General Election whereas Hadley emphasized the time before the primary season began…when many potential campaigns are in the formative, pre-announcement
stage and are concerned with chasing after the best talent and locking in key
donors. Hadley argued that the success
of campaigns was determined, in large measure, by what occurs during this time…with
actions that took place outside of the public gaze (hence: “Invisible”
Primary). For the time, Hadley's exploration was ground-breaking.
Of course, that "Invisible" descriptor seems rather quaint to the modern ear. Hadley’s work came out before CNN and the 24-hour
news cycle, before the Internet, and before social media and its implications
for transparency and the immediate dissemination of news to a global audience.
By my count, there are at least 94 potential Democratic
presidential candidates whose names have been at least whispered by the Great
Mentioner. Some of those, of course, have already announced their intentions to
not run in 2020 (Patrick, Cuomo, and Avenatti to name three). And others have already crossed the threshold
as declared candidates (most notably Delaney and less notably – based on
traditional viability metrics – Ojeda and Yang).
I believe the field will winnow itself down to approximately
18 active and at least semi-major Democratic candidates by this time next year. One hears talk of 30+ but even with
present-day information and communications technology and its ability to help
connect candidates, quickly and affordably, with prospective voters and donors, it is challenging to see
how that many serious campaigns could run truly nation-wide efforts (aka the classic “Carter” model). Of course, some might opt to compete in only
certain states, concentrating on districts where they can make the best use of
limited resources and gather delegates to wield clout at a, dare I say it,
contested Convention.
A very large field could mean that 23% of the vote in the
Iowa Democratic caucuses is good enough for a win in that state – which is good news for a
candidate with a very dedicated following who can dominate a “lane” (such as
Sanders). Of course early states like
Iowa and New Hampshire will likely have to compete for attention with Early
Voting in larger states with more delegates, depending on the final
primary calendar.
There is time to game this out later. In any event, if you enjoyed Richard Ben Cramer’s What It
Takes or the Jack Germond and Jules Witcover books that covered the American
presidential campaigns in the ‘70s and ‘80s, and are looking for a good December 2018 read in order to
better understand 2020, I highly recommend Hadley's The Invisible Primary.
In solidarity.
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