Pardon the brief hiatus dear readers.
You see, my compadre Slats was mistaken for being a man of
confidence by a handful of local officials in a small fishing village in
Guatemala, about 10 kilometers outside of Champerico. So that took a bit of time to sort out. Two tips: taking the 14 out of Escuintla is
not a “short cut” and there is no Yelp for locating top-notch English-to-Spanish-to
K’iche’ translators. Lessons learned.
Crisis resolved. Situation = Askew. Back to “Normal.”
Oh such flights.
As the calendar pages hurtle (of their own accord??) off the
wall, we find ourselves slightly less than six months away from the Ames Straw
Poll. With the Iowa Republican Party
deciding (unsurprisingly) to retain the event for the current presidential
cycle, this means it is quite likely that at least one GOP presidential
candidate, someone who hasn't even officially announced yet, will see their
electoral ambitions dashed on a hot August night, somewhere in the general
vicinity of Pearson Hall, on the Iowa State University campus. Home of the Tusslin’ Cyclones.
The thrilling element here, and there is one, is that I
count 23 potential serious or semi-serious Republican candidates who might jump into the
fray. I anticipate that that number will
dwindle down to 14 by August 2015, but the prospect of such a crowded field
should tantalize any self-respecting political junkie.
Consider this: from
1980 to 2012, in the election cycles when there was a legitimate contest for
the GOP nomination, the fields included 10 to 13 candidates. Now, I am including some, let us call them
lesser lights, in those tallies. For
example, Fred Karger in ’12, Alan Keyes in ’08, Herman Cain in ’00 (yes 2000,
but he didn’t get past the exploratory stage),
Morry “The Grizz” Taylor in ’96, as well as Ambassador Ben Fernandez and
future Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld…a couple of times. Not to disparage
any of these individuals, but they either exited the process very early (as in the
year before the Election) or they performed miserably once the caucuses and
primaries got underway. As was expected of them.
In this cycle, there are fewer apparent “longest of long-shots”
in the race. Are there favorites and
relative heavies? Absolutely. Moderate
long-shots? Sure. But complete
non-starters? Not so much. Even some of the non-traditional candidates
are interesting from an electoral perspective.
Consider Dr. Ben Carson. Some are
quick to dismiss him out of hand. Will
he emerge as this cycle’s Santorum 2012?
Doubtful, but he has a personal narrative and a bit of a nascent
constituency. I think he ends up
somewhere between Bauer 2000 and Gingrich 2012.
The presence of other, better-known, social conservatives in the field
will block his path to the nomination, but I predict he will run a credible
campaign.
With six (yes six), occasionally over-lapping, significant
voting blocs in today’s Republican Party, potential candidates are envisioning
multiple paths to victory, based on the coalitions they believe they could forge…with the right financial resources, talent, communications, calendar,
fortune, intervention by Providence, etc….I will elaborate on this in future
posts but the six are, in no particular order:
Social Conservatives, Libertarians, Establishment Center/Right, Tea Party-Aligned,
Working Class Cultural Conservatives, and the small number of remaining GOP
Moderates & “Liberals.”
Examining each of those blocs, with the recent decision of
Senator Bob Corker to take a mighty pass this time around, are 23 likely candidates.
I believe that at least seven and possibly all nine of the
following group will announce that they are running for President this year:
Paul, Carson, Cruz, Perry, Santorum, Bush, Huckabee, Walker,
and Christie.
With the exception of Carson, all are Governors or Senators
or former Governors and Senators. All
have appeal within multiple GOP constituencies (some more pronounced than
others). This is the single strongest Republican
field since ’80. Frankly, it is probably
deeper based on this tier alone.
Beyond that first grouping, I anticipate that at least half
of the following will enter the race:
Jindal, Fiorina, Graham, and Rubio.
No slouches here. I
think Graham’s entry, if it transpires, could diminish the perceived value that South Carolina
primary generally enjoys. It could be akin to Harkin ’92 when other Democratic
candidates avoiding competing on the Senator’s home turf, which inflated the
importance of the New Hampshire primary, which helped Clinton and his “Comeback Kid” narrative and the rest is history. Fiorina,
despite her 42% performance against Senator Boxer in 2010, should not be
underestimated. With her business
credentials and (potentially) being the only woman on many Republican
presidential primary ballots, she could catch fire and go deeper into the
calendar than most of the other contenders.
Many within the third group will ultimately decide to forego
being a presidential candidate in 2016, but I project at least a couple will
mount challenges:
Bolton, Pence, Gilmore, Ehrlich, Pete King, Pataki, Kasich,
Snyder, Palin, and Trump.
OK, Trump is a non-starter, but his celebrity (read:
notoriety, apparent lack of filter, and not inconsiderable wealth) will
generate some buzz…if he gets in (I don’t believe he will). Governor Mike Pence is serious, as is John
Kasich, but they will have to ramp up their efforts, soon, if they want to
compete in the Not-so Invisible Primary.
Especially with fellow Midwestern Governor Scott Walker garnering
attention and making interesting staff hires.
Sarah Palin. She has
indicated interest. Ignore that. If she runs, it will be an attempt to prop up
the Brand. Based on her public
statements, I generously estimate a 9% chance that she gives it a shot in 2016. In reality, it is most likely under five
percent.
Beyond these 23, are there others? Why yes, I am glad you asked.
My long list has 67 Republicans. Don’t worry, I won’t run through them all, I
will just mention one more worth noting:
Mitt Romney. Yes, I
know he just bowed out. I peruse Le Monde like you do. But let’s assume, for a moment, that it is
late August 2015. The Bush campaign is
hobbling along. His controversial positions on Common Core and immigration, in conjunction
with some gaffes, lower-than-expected fundraising totals, declining poll numbers, and various miscues
make him look vulnerable. Christie acts
like Christie and is on the brink of imploding after yelling at some Iowa
farmers. Pence and Kasich decided to stay home, so Walker is left standing as
the top choice of the Establishment Right…barely. Would Mitt see himself as the only one
standing in the way of a Cruz or Santorum or Huckabee nomination? He is probably the only one who could jump-start
a campaign around Labor Day and pull a serious organization together. In short, keep glancing over at Romney. It might not be over for him. And if he is a
candidate by September 15, 2015, you read it here first!
A long post?
Absolutely. Yet the primary
season itself is long and full of wonder.
Savor it. I mean it, commence
with the savoring already!
Now if I can only find that luggage. Waiting for a call from La Aurora
International Airport…
Stay tuned, as more will follow. Count on it.
