Thunder on the Right and Grand Theft Punditry

Note to JB: try changing your password. GrandVerbalizer93? Do you log on to your blog using Prodigy?

Slats here.  I saw the reaction to my Guest Column (four words: laudatory and deservedly so) and thought I would chime in. 

I heard about this Frank Mirabile (among other Republicans) looking at a County Executive primary run.  He is more of a symptom of a larger issue.  In the 1990s, you could get away with triangulating, Bill Clinton did that with the liberals in the Democratic caucus and with the Republicans who controlled the House for most of his Presidency.  It worked (plus ou moins) because you had deal-cutters on all sides (R/D, White House/Senate/House of Reps), and this was particularly the case between 1995 and December 1997.

Kittleman doesn’t have Bill Clinton’s political skills.  He reads glass-jaw to me, but what do I know. I am writing this 50 feet from a fjord.  Beyond that, today’s Republican Party is so radicalized, institutionally and from the top down, that any effort by a conservative like Kittleman (who tries to play the role of moderate) is going to fire up the folks to his right.  This Sanctuary bill puts him in a tough spot.  If he backs it, someone like Mirabile is starting at 30% - 35% in a primary instantaneously.  It becomes the “No New Taxes” in HoCo in the Trump era.  But if he doesn’t support the concept behind the Sanctuary bill, Kittleman loses support among Democrats and moderates who like having a “good Republican” for whom they can vote (See: Anderson ’80, Huntsman ’12, Kasich ‘16).

Frankly, the bill should have three votes on the Council right now.  I understand that Jon Weinstein may have some concerns, but I am not sure why Sigaty is holding back.  Unless she has decided that she wants to run to the right of folks like Ball or Woodcock.  How will that work out for her? Ask President Paul Fucking Tsongas.

Anyway, it seems like the Nullifiers are where the Democratic base is when it comes to Federal immigration policy and the incoming Administration.  It’s a values play: are Americans generous of spirit and respectful of our neighbors or do we run around demanding, “papers, please?”  I don’t know all of the details about that particular piece of legislation, but the fundamental principles behind the debate are the important ones.  And it is always fun when Democrats are able to coalesce human rights, civil rights and state’s rights issues into one package.

Let me answer JB’s viewer mail.  I know his job keeps him occupied and my answers are no better than guesses but until these reindeer stop grazing around my 4C, I am stuck at this bar for a while.

I think he wants to write about other races, including the Board of Education.  He seems jazzed about the current pro-Reform bloc on the BoE and sees opportunities for further progress, with the right candidates, in 2018.  I’m not sure if he thinks there is much to say about County Districts 1 or 5 right now, although he seems high on a “Doctor Z ” even though he is pretty sure she is still steamed over the Schmaltz Incident of ’14.  I think he wants to write about State Legislative Districts 12 and 13…and 9B to a lesser extent, but he wants to hear more from certain incumbents before he engages in open, public speculation involving potential retirements and shifting slates in ’18.

Will he write more? Depends on the gig.  As his mentor, I always told him the key is to “retire young, retire rich.”  The hard-headed bastard never listens. 

Serious offers only on the alpacas.  As is.

No Slats, Just Stats

2016 Howard County Primary Election Fun Facts – Presidential Candidate Electoral Performances at the County Council Level:

-       Trump won in four of the five County Council districts, losing only in the Fightin’ Fourth to Kasich by a 64 vote margin (2,884 to 2,820).

-       Trump’s biggest margin was in the 5^th County Council district, where he outpolled Kasich with 7,550 votes compared to 5,300 for the Ohio Governor.  He also won rather handily in the 1^st District, with 4,250 votes compared to 3,494 for Kasich.  In short, Trump performed best in the West HoCo GOP stronghold and ran quite well in the swing-ish 1^st.

-       Kasich kept it reasonably close in the 2^nd District (losing to Trump 2,716 to 2,602 votes) and in the 3^rd District (again placing second to Trump by 2,512 to 2,272 votes).  In short, Kasich fared best in the more Democratic County Council districts.

-       Cruz had his strongest showing in the 5^th, with 2,968 votes.  He placed third in all County Council Districts.

-       The only other GOP presidential candidate who broke three figures at the County Council level?  Ben Carson (148 votes in the 5^th). 

-       Worst showing?  A tie between Huckabee (8 votes in the 1^st) and Santorum (8 votes in the 4^th).  Don’t stop believing.

-       On the Democratic side, Clinton won in all five County Council districts. The margins of victory were somewhat narrower in the 1^st District and the 5^th District, slightly over 2,100 votes in both cases.  She crushed it in the 4^th, with 10,126 votes compared to 6,218 for the Vermont Senator. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

2020 Foresight

Happy Super Tuesday Eve!

When I first came to DC, my employer at the time had a list of "lessons learned" from Senator Phil Gramm's presidential campaign on the wall.  I wish I kept a copy of it.

So, here are some thoughts for 2020 presidential aspirants, based on the lessons learned, re-learned, and forgotten thus far in the 2016 election cycle.

1.  Define your opponents early and vigorously.  While the media historically serves a larger role here, I don't believe I have witnessed a presidential candidate as good as Donald Trump when it comes to establishing narrative frames for his opponents, with his re-positioning of Jeb! being Trump's crowning achievement in this regard (to date).  Governor Bush never recovered from the low energy tag and the characterization helped expedite the collapse of a candidacy that 1) never quite found its voice and 2) was fundamentally out of step with the resurgent populism that pervades the national mood.   Note:  Jeb should have recalled how effectively Rove et. al. were in defining Senator Kerry in 2004...when his own brother was up for re-election.  Remember swift-boating?  It went right to Kerry's perceived strength and deflated it.  Apparently Jeb forgot that lesson from 12 short years ago.

2. Exploit social media to its fullest  Again, Trump might be sui generis within the political realm given his decades-long fame/infamy in our popular culture and his understanding of how to create (and dominate) news in these early days of the 21st Century.  Future candidates should nonetheless peruse his tweets very, very carefully to see how he was able to shape conversations over the course of days, weeks, and months.  This lesson applies regardless of the milieu, Facebook, Twitter, or DodgeWaffle - whatever social media outlets exist in 2020.

3.  Don't hesitate when it comes to going on the offense.  You can't hang back and let your opponents define you, and when you attack when it is too late, it comes across as flailing from a position of weakness.  In short, don't be afraid to go "comparative" early...as long as doing so is in your best strategic interest and it doesn't subvert the candidate's brand.

4.  Establish your brand early.  To that point, you can't undergo a character transformation mid-way through a campaign.  Kasich came close though, he went from quirky, quick-tempered policy wonk to folksy, can-do Midwestern Huggin' Gov in what seemed like a fairly rapid metamorphosis.  It may not take him to March 16, but it allows him to occupy a distinct, and distinguishable, position in the present GOP field.

5. Be prepare to be flexible when it comes to strategy and tactics.  Not to pile on Jeb, but his by-the-book campaign was far too by-the-book.  They failed to adapt to meet the needs of the present environment, choosing instead to ignore the Trump ascendancy until it was far too late.  The summer poll numbers were more than sufficient to warrant a more aggressive posture toward Mr. Trump but the Bush team was too focused on running a playbook for a completely different ballgame.

6. The culture is inseparable from the political.  There is a book concept in here somewhere.  In a pop culture world obsessed with louder, vacuous and/or one-note, but media savvy individuals... is it any surprise that such figures are faring well in the US electorally?  I am not suggesting that 2020 presidential candidates should start appearing on as many reality shows as possible between now and November '20, but they need to think about the larger cultural background and factor that into their planning accordingly.

7. Don't over staff.  Walker.  Bush.  Just so much money wasted that could have been spent on voter contact.  No need for dozens of policy advisors, it's a political campaign and not a think tank.

8. Don't inflate your own expectations.  Come on Senator Rubio. The "3-2-1" approach set yourself up for failure right from the outset of the primary season. It is one of the reasons why he has not emerged as the main alternative to Trump (that and his disastrous debate meltdown, which reminded me of Muskie's crying (melting snow?!) moment...something that was so memorable and so damaging that it will not be soon forgotten).

9. Make it about "the people."  This is why Senator Sander's ads have been better than Senator Clinton's.  His paid communications tend to be more "us"-focused while Senator Clinton still spends too much time talking about how unique her candidacy is.  His are more dialogue driven while hers tend to be more monologue-oriented, and people like being talked with, not at.  I am perhaps over-stating the case for illustration purposes, but go ahead, compare the ads.  Remove the specific candidate and ask, which make me feel more of a sense of belonging?  Which are motivating?  Would Clinton be faring better if she ran Sanders-style ads?  Would Sanders be performing worse if he was running Clinton-style ads?  Something to ponder.

Feel free to save this and post it on your fridge.  The magnet can hold it for four years.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

  

Pandemonium-upon-Stilts

That sums up the past several months.  There is no doubt a book there, but binding Confidentiality Agreements most likely make that a non-starter.  

I have just enough time to offer up some brief thoughts on the likely contours of the 2016 GOP presidential campaign.    

The campaigns most likely to fold up their tents between now and Iowa:  With 15 heavies remaining (sorry Mark Everson), I believe that Senator Rand Paul (R/Lib – Au) and former Governor Jim Gilmore (R – No VA Car Tax!) are the most likely to quit the field between now and February 1, 2016 Iowa caucuses.  The latter might stick around until New Hampshire as his, let’s call it, “strategy” appears more focused on the Granite State.  That said, he might realize that a top 10 showing is not in the cards, and quietly withdraw at some point during the Holiday Season.  The former may decide to focus on his U.S. Senate seat, so keep a close eye on his early-state polling performances in November and December. If he can’t consistently cross the five percent threshold in the weeks prior to Iowa, expect a retreat to Kentucky.  One more to watch:  Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, wonk-turned-red meat hurler, the former Bayou Wunderkind needs to break out of the second tier.  He selected Iowa as the state that gives him just enough of a push to get past the carve-out states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada).  Unfortunately, for Gov. Jindal, he is facing off against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX/The Second Choice), former Governor Mike Huckabee, Former Senator Rick Santorum, and Dr. Ben Carson for the social conservative vote. 

The campaigns most likely to be done after Iowa:  Jindal if he even makes it to February 1.  I believe that Santorum will lose in the Clash of the Most Recent Iowa Victors Match-up, with Huckabee being the better positioned of the two to do anything in South Carolina.  Santorum will wrap up his campaign on Groundhog Day.  Just in time for him to head home to check on Punxsutawney Phil.

The campaigns most likely to be finished after New Hampshire:  Gilmore if he is still in the race.  Former New York Governor George Pataki will likely receive his last hurrah of the primary season in NH.  Either former Governor Chris Christie or Governor John Kasich will be on life-support or decently positioned as the Bush/Rubio alternative after New Hampshire.  Senator Lindsey Graham may opt for a strategic withdrawal and endorsement of another hawk prior to his home-state primary.

So who is a lock to be an active candidate for the South Carolina primary?  Former Governor Jeb Bush, Carson, Cruz, business executive Carly Fiorina, probably Huckabee, either Christie or Kasich, Senator Marco Rubio, and businessman Donald Trump.

What about March?  I think the short-term calendar shapes up nicely for Cruz.  I expect a Huckabee exit as well as a slow Carson (and slower Trump) fade (all to the benefit of Cruz) and that Bush will struggle. 

Beyond that, I think Cruz and Rubio are well situated to go deep.  Trump and Carson could accrue a significant number of delegates, with Fiorina performing well enough to warrant serious consideration as a VP pick.  If this were a Democratic primary, I would give Kasich better odds as a dark-horse candidate.  As it is not, I think he might emerge as the primary Establishment alternative to Rubio, but will have neither the resources nor the skills to compete with either Senator Cruz or Senator Rubio.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.  

Episode 90: The GOP Awakens (2016)

Well I promised a brief look at the potential contours of, and possible candidates within, the 2016 GOP field, so here it goes:

First, my long-list contains 64 names.  Beyond the Heavyweights and several Contenders, it includes some complete non-starters, a few has-beens, and a couple of never-was types.  The most shocking element here is that the road to the Republican presidential nomination is so open that many of the lesser names could gaze into a mirror and say, without an excessive amount of self-delusion, “You know, I could pull 15,000 votes in Iowa and win a ticket to New Hampshire.”  And the mirror wouldn’t even laugh back.

Charlie Cook, the celebrated political analyst and prognosticator of the highest order (who, by the way, nailed the closeness of the MD gubernatorial race while some folks Who Shall Remain Nameless were saying that LG Anthony Brown had a 93% chance of victory), was recently quoted in The Kansas City Star as expecting the eventual GOP nominee to be a “tea party Senator or Governor from the Midwest.”

Actually that call isn’t as bold as it might seem.  If you winnow the list of names down to the 20 candidates most likely to run, and further assume that only around 12 of those will go as far as establishing an exploratory committee, there are multiple tea party-aligned Senators and heartland Governors in the mix [in boldface below].  Let’s assume the following field going into August of next year:

Senator Rand Paul (KY)

Senator Ted Cruz (TX)

Governor Bobby Jindal (LA)

Dr. Ben Carson (MD)

Governor Rick Perry (TX)

Former US Senator Rick Santorum (PA) or former Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)

Business Executive Carly Fiorina (CA)

Governor Chris Christie (NJ)

Former Governor Jeb Bush (FL) or (unlikely) former Governor Mitt Romney (MA)

Governor Scott Walker (WI)

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton (MD)

Possibly either Governor Mike Pence (IN) or Governor John Kasich (OH)

And a couple of others, such as a Congressman Peter King (NY) or Senator Bob Corker (TN)

Carson falls somewhere between Morry “The Grizz” Taylor and former Senator Fred Thompson on the Serious Candidate Spectrum.  Is he really running for a statewide office in Maryland?  For an appointment as Surgeon General? Stay tuned, as…

Wait. I am not done.  Bolton is one-note on defense and is no more than a Cabinet possibility at best.  If you assume the “others” will end up being “also-rans” then at least a third and possibly close to half of the Serious Candidates [in terms of likelihood of obtaining the nomination, not necessarily ability to govern] will be tea party Senators or Rust Belt Govs.

Oh did I forget Senator Marco Rubio (FL)?  No.   I think he will choose to take a pass and look for another opportunity down the road. I think he understands that the electorate likes to “fix” the perceived shortcomings of the current Administration.   Carter too soft, too bogged down in details?  Let’s get a tough talking, CEO-type in Reagan.  George HW Bush too out-of-touch with the problems of working families?  Let’s elect the populist from Arkansas who eats at McDonald’s. George W. Bush doesn’t have the intellectual heft? Let’s vote for the Brainiac Senator from Illinois.  Obama too cerebral/aloof, lacking a long history of building relationships with Congress?  Perhaps it’s time for someone who comes across as warmer, or someone who has been around the Establishment longer, a “Known Entity.”    Hmmm…

Of course this is all incredibly reductionist.  If I had to bet, I would say the Republican field will consist of six Serious possibilities after the Iowa caucuses (slightly more than the historical norm as I believe multiple campaigns will be prepping for a long, drawn-out process).  There will be two social conservatives, two more establishment types, Rand Paul and someone else, perhaps Fiorina.  In the end, I expect it will come down to a slog for delegates with perhaps as many as three Serious candidates competing until the end of the primary season.  The Establishment choice (Bush although I would keep an eye on Pence), Rand Paul and maybe someone who was accruing just enough Delegates along the way to prevent anyone else from obtaining a majority, someone who might use that clout at the Convention to get a spot on the ticket or at least be a king (or queen) maker.  Senator Cruz may be that third person in this scenario.  Oh for the joys of a Brokered Convention.  Let the political scientists dream!

Anyway, I am certain I will talk about the individual attributes and policy stances of all of these people, and others, over the course of the next 14 months or so.  Everyone is in their decision-making mode now.  Go/No Go.  Internal/family deliberations will conclude over the next few weeks.  I expect a couple candidates will announce early, in the first quarter of 2015, while most will state their intentions in April, May and early June of next year.

Just a bit of Hot Stove League speculation as we hurtle toward 1/1/15.   

Looking forward to focusing a bit more on state and local public policy issues in the coming weeks.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.