Well I promised a brief look at the potential contours of,
and possible candidates within, the 2016 GOP field, so here it goes:
First, my long-list contains 64 names. Beyond the Heavyweights and several
Contenders, it includes some complete non-starters, a few has-beens, and a
couple of never-was types. The most
shocking element here is that the road to the Republican presidential
nomination is so open that many of the lesser names could gaze into a mirror
and say, without an excessive amount of self-delusion, “You know, I could pull
15,000 votes in Iowa and win a ticket to New Hampshire.” And the mirror wouldn’t even laugh back.
Charlie Cook, the celebrated political analyst and
prognosticator of the highest order (who, by the way, nailed the closeness of
the MD gubernatorial race while some folks Who Shall Remain Nameless were
saying that LG Anthony Brown had a 93% chance of victory), was recently quoted
in The Kansas City Star as expecting
the eventual GOP nominee to be a “tea party Senator or Governor from the
Midwest.”
Actually that call isn’t as bold as it might seem. If you winnow the list of names down to the
20 candidates most likely to run, and further assume that only around 12 of
those will go as far as establishing an exploratory committee, there are
multiple tea party-aligned Senators and heartland Governors in the mix [in
boldface below]. Let’s assume the following
field going into August of next year:
Senator Rand Paul
(KY)
Senator Ted Cruz (TX)
Governor Bobby Jindal (LA)
Dr. Ben Carson (MD)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Former US Senator Rick Santorum (PA) or former Governor Mike
Huckabee (AR)
Business Executive Carly Fiorina (CA)
Governor Chris Christie (NJ)
Former Governor Jeb Bush (FL) or (unlikely) former Governor
Mitt Romney (MA)
Governor Scott Walker
(WI)
Former UN Ambassador John Bolton (MD)
Possibly either Governor
Mike Pence (IN) or Governor John
Kasich (OH)
And a couple of others, such as a Congressman Peter King
(NY) or Senator Bob Corker (TN)
Carson falls somewhere between Morry “The Grizz” Taylor and
former Senator Fred Thompson on the Serious Candidate Spectrum. Is he really running for a statewide office
in Maryland? For an appointment as
Surgeon General? Stay tuned, as…
Wait. I am not done.
Bolton is one-note on defense and is no more than a Cabinet possibility
at best. If you assume the “others” will
end up being “also-rans” then at least a third and possibly close to half of
the Serious Candidates [in terms of likelihood of obtaining the nomination, not
necessarily ability to govern] will be tea party Senators or Rust Belt Govs.
Oh did I forget Senator Marco Rubio (FL)? No. I
think he will choose to take a pass and look for another opportunity down the
road. I think he understands that the electorate likes to “fix” the perceived
shortcomings of the current Administration.
Carter too soft, too bogged down in details? Let’s get a tough talking, CEO-type in
Reagan. George HW Bush too out-of-touch
with the problems of working families?
Let’s elect the populist from Arkansas who eats at McDonald’s. George W.
Bush doesn’t have the intellectual heft? Let’s vote for the Brainiac Senator
from Illinois. Obama too cerebral/aloof,
lacking a long history of building relationships with Congress? Perhaps it’s time for someone who comes
across as warmer, or someone who has been around the Establishment longer, a
“Known Entity.” Hmmm…
Of course this is all incredibly reductionist. If I had to bet, I would say the Republican
field will consist of six Serious possibilities after the Iowa caucuses (slightly more than the historical norm as I believe multiple
campaigns will be prepping for a long, drawn-out process). There will be two social conservatives, two
more establishment types, Rand Paul and someone else, perhaps Fiorina. In the end, I expect it will come down to a
slog for delegates with perhaps as many as three Serious candidates competing
until the end of the primary season. The
Establishment choice (Bush although I would keep an eye on Pence), Rand Paul
and maybe someone who was accruing just enough Delegates along the way to
prevent anyone else from obtaining a majority, someone who might use that clout
at the Convention to get a spot on the ticket or at least be a king (or queen)
maker. Senator Cruz may be that third
person in this scenario. Oh for the joys
of a Brokered Convention. Let the
political scientists dream!
Anyway, I am certain I will talk about the individual
attributes and policy stances of all of these people, and others, over the course
of the next 14 months or so. Everyone is
in their decision-making mode now. Go/No
Go. Internal/family deliberations will
conclude over the next few weeks. I
expect a couple candidates will announce early, in the first quarter of 2015,
while most will state their intentions in April, May and early June of next
year.
Just a bit of Hot Stove League speculation as we hurtle
toward 1/1/15.
Looking forward to focusing a bit more on state and local
public policy issues in the coming weeks.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
