District 12 - By The Numbers

Digging through the weeds today.  Reading through the unofficial primary election results, looking for anything that local political geeks, such as this author, might find to be of interest.  Bear in mind that these are the unofficial numbers.

[I cited the location of the polling places, in certain instances, to provide an additional layer of geographic specificity…and for future trivia questions for those who delight in the incredibly obscure].

Looking at the overall vote totals in Howard County reported to date (which include 35 of 37 precincts, including 31 physical election-day precincts, one of two absentee vote precincts, zero of one provisional vote precinct, and three early voting center precincts), here is where we stand:

Candidate                  Votes

Lam                             4,719

Hill                              4,454

Ebersole                     2,839

Dongarra                    1,617

Stewart                       1,408

Bailey                          785

McGuirk-Spence        777

Gisriel                         621

Sachs                          486

Cohen                         346

Topline observation: As many observers expected, Lam and Hill crushed in HoCo.  Ebersole’s margin over Dongarra in Howard County enabled him to overcome Dongarra’s lead in Baltimore County.

Among voters who cast their ballot at the polls in Howard County, on Election Day:

Terri Hill and Clarence Lam flat-out dominated Howard County, finishing first or second in all thirty-one precincts.  Lam carried 20 precincts while Hill won 10 precincts.  They tied in one precinct (1-005, the Worthington Elementary School Gym).  

Rebecca Dongarra came close to a second place finish in precinct 1-011 (the Ilchester Elementary School Gym), garnering 34 votes compared to 35 for Lam.

Nick Stewart obtained the third slot in precinct 02-21 (the Northfield Elementary School Cafeteria), but there were few votes reported out of that precinct (a total of 38 votes cast, with Stewart’s name checked on 15 of those ballots compared to 16 for Lam).

As one might expect based on the overall numbers, Eric Ebersole finished third in most precincts, with Dongarra and Stewart obtaining more votes than Ebersole in a handful of precincts, primarily in the eastern part of D12 in Howard County.

Still in Howard County: Lam and Hill also tied with 100 votes apiece on the first absentee vote canvass.  Lam edged Hill for first place among early voters (1,585 to 1,501). Ebersole was third among this early voting population with 970 votes.

Turning to D12 in Baltimore County, with 22 of 25 precincts reporting (including 14 physical election day precincts, eight of eight early voting center precincts, zero of two absentee vote precincts and zero of one provisional vote precincts), here is where we stand:

Candidate                              Votes

Dongarra                                2,027

Ebersole                                 1,490

Stewart                                   1,485

Hill                                          1,472

Lam                                         1,433

McGuirk-Spence                    1,048

Bailey                                      738

Gisriel                                     578

Sachs                                      239

Cohen                                     212

Topline observations:  The race for second place was tight, with the second through fifth place finishers all garnering between 1,433 and 1,490 votes.  Most likely unsurprisingly, relative to the number of votes cast in each county, McGuirk-Spence and Bailey fared better in Baltimore County compared to Howard County.

Starting with those who cast their ballots at the polls on Election Day in Baltimore County:

This is where Rebecca Dongarra ran strongest, capturing a plurality of the vote in five of the 14 precincts.  Nick Stewart also carried five precincts.  Hill placed first in two precincts, with Ebersole and Bailey winning one apiece.

Dongarra won in precincts such as 1-13 (the Hillcrest Elementary School Gym) and 1-14 (the Catonsville High School Gym), winning the former by a decent margin over the second place finisher, Eric Ebersole (by a margin of 263 votes to 189 votes).  She also won in 1-16 (the Charlestown Retirement Community Conference Center), 13-1 (the Maiden Choice School Gym) and 13-4 (the Relay Elementary School Gym). 

Stewart carried 13 – 2 (the Arbutus Fire Hall), 13-3 (the Arbutus Middle School Cafeteria), 13 -5 (the Halethorpe Elementary School Gym), 13 – 6 (the Lansdowne Middle School Cafeteria), and 13-8 (the English Consul Volunteer Fire Department Hall).  He broke into the top three in a couple of the other precincts, most notably a solid second place showing in the aforementioned 13-4.

Hill won 1- 9 (the Banneker Community Center Gym) and 13-7 (the Baltimore Highlands Elementary School Cafeteria).  She finished in the top three in several precincts.

Ebersole won in 1-10 (the Hillcrest Elementary School Cafeteria) by a narrow 217 – 212 margin over Dongarra.  He ran a solid second to Dongarra in 1-13 and 1- 14 (both precincts mentioned above).

Brian Bailey carried 13-9 (the Riverview Elementary School Cafeteria) while finishing second behind Stewart in 13-8. 

Broken out separately from the overall Baltimore County figures reported above, Dongarra placed first in the first absentee vote canvass (51 votes with Lam the second place finisher at 49).  Dongarra also obtained the greatest number of early voting center votes (441 with Lam again placing second with 402, slightly ahead of Ebersole at 399….with Hill (329) and Stewart (294) fourth and fifth, respectively).

So what does this all mean?

If Dongarra gained eight votes, and Ebersole lost eight votes, in each of the 45 physical precincts, Dongarra would be in third place.  Candidate skill-sets and other variables aside, I believe the endorsements by the MSEA (and to a significant but somewhat lesser extent the SEIU) helped propel Ebersole into the top three…and, barring a highly improbable upset, a ticket to Annapolis.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

'Twas the Night Before Primary Election Day

Primary Election Eve Special!

A short(er) video featuring some D12 direct mail highlights:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ7iET1FuDQ

Vote tomorrow - Tuesday, June 24!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Direct Mail Call

Enjoy hearing about D12? Direct mail?  This post is for you...

Yes, a video clip!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Crunch Time in Faulkner Ridge

Several weeks into a formerly crescent-fresh research assignment.  An increasingly immersive…and somnambulate…venture deep into the minds of those who study how humans learn, retain and apply knowledge during moments of considerable stress.  Still in the midst of this journey, hoping to wrap it up soon…at least take a break from it in a couple of days.  You see, an old friend of mine is coming into town this weekend.  He works in the Industry, in Los Angeles. He and I need to lock down a development deal for that movie I pitched a while back, “Smurfs: The Reckoning.”  Guess the studio didn’t go for the hard-R treatment. Thanks for nothing, Disney.

So little time to write in depth about community affairs, yet so many important events are taking place.  The Howard County Council recently passed the fiscal year 2015 budget, which funds our schools, the Merriweather Post Pavilion renovation, HCC, public health initiatives, libraries and many other programs and efforts that directly impact our quality of living.  All while being able to maintain a AAA credit rating (note: in February, Howard County was one of only 40 counties in the United States that obtained this rating, out of over 3,000 counties.  Source: The Baltimore Sun).  This is the 17^th consecutive year that the County has managed to secure the highest rating.  That is top-flight fiscal management and our County Executive and County Council deserve credit for a job well-done.

Juxtapose that with the Columbia Association shenanigans and one can see the vivid contrast between responsible governance and clown shoes. Which is actually not fair since a few members of the CA Board seem to have made the acquaintance of Reality and Progress.  The newcomers? That appears to be another story.     

If you haven’t already, you should check out Frank Hecker’s posts on renovating Merriweather.  Just an absolute wealth of knowledge there. All well-presented too.

http://frankhecker.com/

But the focus of this post is on yet another set of numbers, the first pre-primary gubernatorial campaign finance reports that were due by 11:59 pm on Tuesday, May 27, 2014. Some highlights:

On the surface, disbarred attorney Michael Gisriel appears to be in decent shape.  Gisriel, better known for playing the role of Colt Seavers in The Fall Guy, is sitting on over $86,000 cash-on-hand.  But he owes himself $85,000 in loans to his campaign.  Will he actually spend that money or will he cut his losses?  Even if he continues to cut checks, will it make any difference?  The product he is selling remains Michael Gisriel and I don't know if the voters of the 12^th are interested in that offering.  Yes he is on television but I have seen state legislative races where candidates with far healthier budgets spend their way to a fourth-place showing and 15% of the vote (in single-member districts).  They always wish they had kept the money and walked away from the table.  

  

In other D12 news:

Looking at cash-on-hand, Dr. Clarence Lam places second overall, with almost $74,000 in the bank.  Dr. Terri Hill’s campaign has slightly over $67,000 cash-on-hand following another solid fundraising period. 

Nick Stewart is fourth with a little over $42,600 cash-on-hand.  Eric Ebersole is next, with nearly $29,000 in his coffers.  Rebecca Dongarra is just north of $20,000 cash-on-hand ($20,767).

Rounding out the field are Renee McGuirk-Spence with $13,871, Adam Sachs with $1,607, Brian Bailey with $373, and Jay Fred Cohen, who filed his ALCE (Affidavit of Limited Contributions and Expenditures), indicating his intention to raise/spend less than $1,000 cumulatively.

Turning to 9B, Rich Corkran’s committee is in a precarious financial situation.  While he is sitting on $14,959 cash-on-hand, he owes himself $25,000 in personal loans he made to the campaign.  His report shows $12,055 in total receipts for the most recent filing period, that includes $10,000 in personal loans to his effort, another $1,000 from some other folks with the last name “Corkran” and a handful of other contributions.  In the meantime, he incurred over $20,000 in expenditures, largely on terrible direct mail-pieces. 

Meanwhile Tom Coale is showing $40,790 cash-on-hand, with over $26,900 in new receipts.  His is a true grassroots effort indicative of a campaign with a broad and deep base of support.

But my research beckons and I must return to that world. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.