District 12 - By The Numbers

Digging through the weeds today.  Reading through the unofficial primary election results, looking for anything that local political geeks, such as this author, might find to be of interest.  Bear in mind that these are the unofficial numbers.

[I cited the location of the polling places, in certain instances, to provide an additional layer of geographic specificity…and for future trivia questions for those who delight in the incredibly obscure].

Looking at the overall vote totals in Howard County reported to date (which include 35 of 37 precincts, including 31 physical election-day precincts, one of two absentee vote precincts, zero of one provisional vote precinct, and three early voting center precincts), here is where we stand:

Candidate                  Votes

Lam                             4,719

Hill                              4,454

Ebersole                     2,839

Dongarra                    1,617

Stewart                       1,408

Bailey                          785

McGuirk-Spence        777

Gisriel                         621

Sachs                          486

Cohen                         346

Topline observation: As many observers expected, Lam and Hill crushed in HoCo.  Ebersole’s margin over Dongarra in Howard County enabled him to overcome Dongarra’s lead in Baltimore County.

Among voters who cast their ballot at the polls in Howard County, on Election Day:

Terri Hill and Clarence Lam flat-out dominated Howard County, finishing first or second in all thirty-one precincts.  Lam carried 20 precincts while Hill won 10 precincts.  They tied in one precinct (1-005, the Worthington Elementary School Gym).  

Rebecca Dongarra came close to a second place finish in precinct 1-011 (the Ilchester Elementary School Gym), garnering 34 votes compared to 35 for Lam.

Nick Stewart obtained the third slot in precinct 02-21 (the Northfield Elementary School Cafeteria), but there were few votes reported out of that precinct (a total of 38 votes cast, with Stewart’s name checked on 15 of those ballots compared to 16 for Lam).

As one might expect based on the overall numbers, Eric Ebersole finished third in most precincts, with Dongarra and Stewart obtaining more votes than Ebersole in a handful of precincts, primarily in the eastern part of D12 in Howard County.

Still in Howard County: Lam and Hill also tied with 100 votes apiece on the first absentee vote canvass.  Lam edged Hill for first place among early voters (1,585 to 1,501). Ebersole was third among this early voting population with 970 votes.

Turning to D12 in Baltimore County, with 22 of 25 precincts reporting (including 14 physical election day precincts, eight of eight early voting center precincts, zero of two absentee vote precincts and zero of one provisional vote precincts), here is where we stand:

Candidate                              Votes

Dongarra                                2,027

Ebersole                                 1,490

Stewart                                   1,485

Hill                                          1,472

Lam                                         1,433

McGuirk-Spence                    1,048

Bailey                                      738

Gisriel                                     578

Sachs                                      239

Cohen                                     212

Topline observations:  The race for second place was tight, with the second through fifth place finishers all garnering between 1,433 and 1,490 votes.  Most likely unsurprisingly, relative to the number of votes cast in each county, McGuirk-Spence and Bailey fared better in Baltimore County compared to Howard County.

Starting with those who cast their ballots at the polls on Election Day in Baltimore County:

This is where Rebecca Dongarra ran strongest, capturing a plurality of the vote in five of the 14 precincts.  Nick Stewart also carried five precincts.  Hill placed first in two precincts, with Ebersole and Bailey winning one apiece.

Dongarra won in precincts such as 1-13 (the Hillcrest Elementary School Gym) and 1-14 (the Catonsville High School Gym), winning the former by a decent margin over the second place finisher, Eric Ebersole (by a margin of 263 votes to 189 votes).  She also won in 1-16 (the Charlestown Retirement Community Conference Center), 13-1 (the Maiden Choice School Gym) and 13-4 (the Relay Elementary School Gym). 

Stewart carried 13 – 2 (the Arbutus Fire Hall), 13-3 (the Arbutus Middle School Cafeteria), 13 -5 (the Halethorpe Elementary School Gym), 13 – 6 (the Lansdowne Middle School Cafeteria), and 13-8 (the English Consul Volunteer Fire Department Hall).  He broke into the top three in a couple of the other precincts, most notably a solid second place showing in the aforementioned 13-4.

Hill won 1- 9 (the Banneker Community Center Gym) and 13-7 (the Baltimore Highlands Elementary School Cafeteria).  She finished in the top three in several precincts.

Ebersole won in 1-10 (the Hillcrest Elementary School Cafeteria) by a narrow 217 – 212 margin over Dongarra.  He ran a solid second to Dongarra in 1-13 and 1- 14 (both precincts mentioned above).

Brian Bailey carried 13-9 (the Riverview Elementary School Cafeteria) while finishing second behind Stewart in 13-8. 

Broken out separately from the overall Baltimore County figures reported above, Dongarra placed first in the first absentee vote canvass (51 votes with Lam the second place finisher at 49).  Dongarra also obtained the greatest number of early voting center votes (441 with Lam again placing second with 402, slightly ahead of Ebersole at 399….with Hill (329) and Stewart (294) fourth and fifth, respectively).

So what does this all mean?

If Dongarra gained eight votes, and Ebersole lost eight votes, in each of the 45 physical precincts, Dongarra would be in third place.  Candidate skill-sets and other variables aside, I believe the endorsements by the MSEA (and to a significant but somewhat lesser extent the SEIU) helped propel Ebersole into the top three…and, barring a highly improbable upset, a ticket to Annapolis.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Primary Election Wrap Up

Having seen so many legitimately odd election cycles, I am reluctant to engage in anything that might be misconstrued as triumphalism. So I will just say that I am generally pleased with most of the Primary Election outcomes.  A number of my friends won and I am delighted for them.  Most importantly, I hope those campaigns continue to work both smart and hard as they refocus their efforts for the General Election.

Some reflections:

On the Governor’s Race:

While the Democratic gubernatorial primary witnessed some hard fighting, there are no deep-seated ideological schisms that threaten to tear the party apart between now and November. Sure Mizeur ran to the left of Brown and Gansler to the right of both of them, but the vast majority of Democrats could live with any of those three candidates as the party’s nominee for Governor.  While there may be some personal animosity among some of the candidates, their family members, their staffers and a few members of the Chattering Class, more than 90% of Maryland Democrats will rally around the Brown – Ulman ticket.  And more Democrats will turn out for the General Election. 

In short, the newly minted GOP nominee for Governor, Larry Hogan, would be wasting his time targeting disaffected Democrats…there will be too few of them. Instead, I expect he will run a modified base strategy to drive up Republican turnout while simultaneously attempting to articulate a sufficiently palatable platform in an effort to cobble together a large enough coalition of conservative-leaning and moderate unaffiliated voters (Independents) to run a competitive campaign.  And hope for a GOP tidal wave of 1994 proportions.  That is his plan and, frankly, only shot at winning.  Such a scenario is unlikely to occur.  Expect a Brown-Ulman Administration.  

And I believe that Heather Mizeur will be an excellent candidate for another statewide office in the not-too-distant future.  She ran a fantastic campaign, but it just wasn’t her time this year.

On the AG Race:

I am glad that progressive talent won out despite the strength of the Cardin brand.  Brian Frosh was clearly the best choice, but the best choices don’t always win (For more information see: “Fair, world is not”).

On House District 9B:

Tom Coale is a bright, good government policy wonk.  He ran a positive, issues-oriented campaign and won.  It was a recurring theme of the night, at least in Howard County, that such candidates emerged victorious while many negative campaigns went down in flames.   The GOP nominee for Delegate, Bob Flanagan, is no slouch.  This is a true swing district and Coale has some heavy lifting ahead; but he is clearly the Democrat best positioned – by background and temperament – to consolidate the base while appealing to Independents as well as those Republicans who might view Flanagan as being a bit too paleo.  

On Senate District 9:

Ryan Frederic was absolutely correct in highlighting the differences between himself and Medinger on certain social issues.  Now, he can focus on his knowledge of economic issues and his history as a job creator in what promises to be a fascinating match-up against Gail Bates.  I don’t know if the 9th Senate District, demographically, can elect a Democrat (yet)…it might be a cycle or two away, but Frederic gives the party a decent chance of a pick-up. 

On House District 12:

Barring some sort of cataclysmic event, Clarence Lam, Terri Hill and Eric Ebersole are going to Annapolis.  The first two were close to virtual locks based on their wide support, deep pockets, and solid campaign skills. 

Ebersole, in my mind, started off as a mid-tier candidate.  He hustled, he worked on his patter, he picked up some serious institutional support and he benefited from a divided field.  So while his mailers were mediocre, at best, he worked the District. You have to respect that.  He ran well in both the Howard and Baltimore County portions of the district.  And, based on the returns available thus far, Ebersole even out-polled Nick Stewart in Baltimore County (1,490 – 1,485).   He also banked a considerable number of early votes, which proved quite important because, among Election Day voters, Rebecca Dongarra placed close behind Ebersole (2,791 for Dongarra compared to 2,903 for Ebersole).

Looking ahead, I hope Brian Bailey (and Rebecca Dongarra) can move past some of the personal issues that frankly, got way out of hand and led to some bone-headed decisions and attacks.  Both have talents and it would be unfortunate to see them squandered.

Stewart, a smart, affable candidate, sent out some great mailers and had the backing of Jimmy Malone and some other organizations…but his relative newcomer status hurt his campaign and I don’t think his positioning as the Pragmatic Choice captured as many hearts and minds as he hoped it might.  Perhaps another office, another year.

And a big thumbs-up to Adam Sachs for running with integrity and grit in the face of long odds.  I was hoping he might fare a little better, but when the Mizeur numbers started coming in, it was clear that an upset would be extremely unlikely.    

On House District 13:

The fact that Vanessa Atterbeary is the leading vote-getter (as of this writing) is a mild surprise.  Perhaps the television spots, in conjunction with her position on the ballot, vaulted her to first place, ahead of Frank Turner and Shane Pendergrass.  In any event, it was a very good night for Team 13, with Nayab Siddiqui failing to catch fire, despite (or perhaps partially because of) his television ads.  It will be interesting to see Atterbeary as a Delegate. 

On County Council District 1:

It is no secret that Jon Weinstein is a friend of mine and I am elated that he won last night, especially in a field with three other serious candidates (clarification: Dave Grabowski is a serious person who, inexplicably, did not run a serious campaign).  Seriously.

I think Jon’s business intelligence combined with his progressive values make him a great fit for District 1, and will serve him well on the County Council.

Wendy Royalty has a future in elective office, should she decide to re-enter the arena.  Like Rick Perry in 2012 (and I am guessing some folks won’t love the comparison but bear with me), she jumped in too late.  Meanwhile, Jon had the benefit of running before and getting an early start this time around, which led to a more polished performance. 

Jon has a legitimate GOP opponent in Kevin Forrest Schmidt. The partisan breakouts indicate that the First remains a winnable district for the Republicans, under a particular set of circumstances.  Jon’s talents as a campaigner, and Courtney Watson’s presence on the ballot, should help keep District One in the Democratic column, but this will be a race to watch.

On the HoCo Democratic Central Committee:

Let’s see…Candace Dodson Reed tied for first place and eight of the ten members of the Progressive Democratic Central Committee Team finished in the Top 12. That is a landslide no matter how you slice it.  This represents an incredible opportunity for the Democratic Party in Howard County to build upon the successes of those who have served well in the past…and to move the Party forward.  Looking at those who ran, it would have been perfect if Agnes Dunson Reid and Charles Bubeck (from the Progressive Team) and Kimberly Pruim had placed in the top 12.  But overall, it was a very encouraging outcome.

On the Howard County Board of Education:

The results could best be summarized as follows: the power of incumbency + the slate backed by the teachers.  That accounts for the top five finishers, with Cindy Vaillancourt, who was first with 15,450 votes (as of this writing), over 1,100 more than the second place finisher, fellow Board Member Sandra French.

Dr. Zaneb Beams needs to step up her game in order to win a seat in November.  Her fifth place showing behind the two incumbents as well as Bess Altwerger and Dan Furman indicate that she has some ground to make up between now and General Election Day.

I am disappointed but not surprised that Allen Dyer made the first cut.  I was hoping that Olga Butler and Maureen Evans Arthurs would finish in the top eight (with Dyer and Smith being the two odd men out, in this Alternate Universe).  They bring different skills to the table, but both Butler and Evans Arthurs would be capable Board of Education members.  I hope they choose to run again in the future.

On the Orphans’ Court:

Pleased that Leslie Smith Turner, Anne Dodd, and Nicole Bormel Miller are the Democratic nominees.  Enough said.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

  

'Twas the Night Before Primary Election Day

Primary Election Eve Special!

A short(er) video featuring some D12 direct mail highlights:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJ7iET1FuDQ

Vote tomorrow - Tuesday, June 24!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

And the Fourth Shall be Third

So I ventured out into the Great Drizzle of ’14 yesterday morning…eyeglass lenses fogging up from the humidity.   Driving past a Gisriel sign-spinner, I heard some kind soul shout out to him:  “Make sure you get paid! In cash!!” Solid career advice in any country, in any operation.

This brief journey in the mist ended at a voting booth, tucked inside of the Bain Center where, finally, I was able to cast my ballot for the 2014 Primary Election.

My sample ballot was completely marked up. Some choices were rather easy: Vote for Candace Dodson-Reed and the rest of the Progressive Democratic Central Committee Team…the Talented 10…round it out with Ethel Hill and Kim Pruim for a Dynamic Dozen.  A vote for Brian Frosh as he is a dedicated public servant and because Jon Cardin, based on his track record, would be an absentee AG.  Votes for Bormel Miller, Dodd and Smith Turner for Orphans’ Court because they are several cuts above Chase in terms of qualifications.

What to do about the 12^th?

If one assumes that Clarence Lam and Terri Hill will finish in the top three, what remains is a bar-brawl for the third seat.  Realistically, there are four candidates that have a shot at that position: in alphabetical order, they are Rebecca Dongarra, Eric Ebersole, Michael Gisriel and Nick Stewart.

I am still hoping that progressive voters in the 12^th coalesce around one quality, viable third option to prevent the election of disbarred attorney Michael Gisriel (of #GisrielGetsItWrong fame). But who should it be?

Nick Stewart is not a conservative by any stretch of a sane imagination, but he is clearly tacking to the center.  Going through such sites as:

http://data.baltimoresun.com/voter-guide/

and the League of Women Voters www.vote411.org

you can see the points of differentiation emerge between Stewart and the other, more liberal candidates.  That said, he is raising a serious amount of dough, sending out high quality mailings and has the backing of Delegate Malone, which is not inconsequential in the Baltimore County precincts within the 12^th.   Electable? Sure. But can he wear the progressive mantle?

Eric Ebersole is a polished public speaker.  He has amassed a decent war-chest but he is spending it on direct mail pieces that could charitably be deemed “mediocre.”  Is his message getting out?  Is he energizing an electorate? He is a progressive and is backed by the teachers, which is a Big Deal in many households, including mine.  The frustration here is akin to the letter “i” without the tittle… so close but just not quite there.  Almost the Clear Choice.

From both a policy and political perspective, you can make a (surprisingly) strong case for Rebecca Dongarra.  If many Howard County voters cast their ballot for only two candidates for HD 12 (presumably Lam and Hill), then whoever wins the Baltimore County side of the district – while pulling just enough votes out of HoCo – could eke out a third place finish and a nomination.  Dongarra, like Brian Bailey, is a proven vote-getter in Baltimore County.

But here is where I get a bit idiosyncratic.  Feeling more than a little burned by recent events, and being aware of the history between Dongarra and Bailey, I made up a rule:  I would rule out from consideration anyone who ran for the Baltimore County Council in 2010.  Gordian Knot solved.        

So why the title of this post?  Back when I had three choices for the 12^th, I wrote that I also had a fourth, Adam Sachs.  Not seeing a clear favorite emerge between Stewart, Ebersole and Dongarra, why not vote for the liberal populist Sachs?  While he stands to the left of the rest of the field, he is qualified to hold the office.  He is aligning himself with Delegate Heather Mizeur’s tax relief plan (another strong positive) and, frankly, I am drawn to underdog progressive campaigns.  So I voted for Sachs…and Mizeur for Governor.

If Gisriel wins the nomination by one vote, you can blame me.  That said, I walked out of the Bain Center with some pep in my step.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

The Eighth Inning...or What's In a Name?

Supposed to attend a Tigers – Orioles game in Baltimore in a few hours.   Client demands might necessitate a change of plans.  If I do not go, the odds of an unassisted triple play occurring at Camden Yards tonight have improved by 75%.

Went to the League of Women Voters State Legislative Candidate Forum yesterday evening.  Could only stick around for Districts 9 and 12.  Will have to catch D13 on television or online. 

At this late stage of the primary campaign, fighting off forum fatigue is a tough challenge.  The mind is looking to express itself in original ways, which is not always the smartest thing to do. 

This manifests itself in a couple of ways.  In this case of this author, the temptation to engage in boredom-alleviating mischief making was strong.  The forum allowed audience members to write and submit questions for possible inclusion in the proceedings…with the moderator and/or other LWV officials deciding what question would make the cut and be asked of the candidates.

During the District 9A Republican panel, I had the question framed in my head.  I knew an obvious set-up wouldn’t get past the gatekeepers…but something disguised might.  So this is what I came up with:

“A transportation question: given Howard County’s proximity to several major airports, do you favor or oppose the appropriation of funds to measure the impact of chemtrails on our local residents and agricultural products?”*

* (If you don’t know what chemtrails are, you clearly aren’t spending enough time watching conspiracy theory videos on YouTube).

But I didn’t want to be accused of making a mockery of the event, so I showed some restraint and didn’t pass the question along. Although it would have been entertaining seeing how far and how fast the assembled Republicans would sprint to the right.  Someone must protect the Patriots from the menace that rains down upon us! My money was on Christopher Eric Bouchat as the one most likely to take that question and run with it, with Frank Mirabile a close second.   Side note: Bouchat wore that black shirt/red tie combo like a champ.

  

You could tell by looking at the faces of the candidates that most would rather be elsewhere.  Either knocking on doors and talking with voters, reading, wasting their money devising God-awful terrible negative direct mail pieces, bunker prepping, or a host of other activities.  Some seemed to enjoy the experience, while others wore forced grins…if they bothered with smiles at all.

Branding and message disciple are important.  At this point, most of the candidates – to one extent or another – have a well-refined pitch and thoughtful, well-practiced answers to a variety of policy (and other) questions.  Honing and repeating a strong message and building name recognition are important.  But it leads to some unintentionally funny moments.

For example, because the candidates were speaking to the cameras, not knowing if the audience would see their paper nameplate on screen, many of them prefaced or ended their introductions and concluding remarks by stating their name…sometimes more than once.  In several cases, the candidates took the opportunity to repeat their name at the beginning of their responses to each of the questions (for the District 12 candidates, each answered six questions).  Yes Clarence, I am looking at you.

Which is exactly what you are supposed to do.  That said, by the fourth or fifth question, I kept wanting a candidate to mix it up.  Break out with a, “I am Keyser Soze,” or perhaps even an off-hand, “Tyler Durden” before launching into their 30-seconds on fracking.  Of course they would be ripped apart for showing a subversive sense of humor, which is unfortunate.

Big takeaways in the races with contested primaries: 

Tom Coale continues to show why he is the best choice in 9B.  He focuses on tackling serious challenges and working to improve the quality of life in Ellicott City.  Meanwhile his opponent, off-stage, appears to spend his energies launching smears….and I guess he didn’t think it wise to repeat his attacks in-person/on-camera.  Interesting.

As I have noted earlier, I think Ryan Frederic would be a great Senate nominee in District 9, but he needs to win the primary first.  He needs to make it clear that he is the only pro-choice candidate in the field…and I believe the only pro-marriage equality candidate as well.  One could infer his stances on those issues when he rattled off his endorsements, but he needs to be comparative and he needs to make those positions front and center. Now.

The hard-right is well-represented in the GOP primary in 9A.  If the Republicans continue running candidates like that, Democrats are going to make gains in Western Howard County…sooner than later.  The two Democratic candidates: Walter Carson and James Ward Morrow, seem like decent, respectable choices.  Carson’s monologue meandered a bit…I have seen him turn in better speaking performances. 

I have written extensively about the legion running in the 12^th House District.  As a group, they are much better communicators than they were just a few short months ago.  Strictly from a professional perspective, it is encouraging to see that kind of maturation as the candidates grow more experienced, more comfortable.

Of course Jay Fred Cohen was a no-show.  In substantive terms, that might have been the case had he occupied a chair on the stage last night… but writing that seems mean-spirited.  I just haven’t seen a legitimate rationale for his candidacy.

There were mostly thoughtful answers provided to a range of questions dealing with transportation, the business-friendliness of Maryland and other priorities and issues.  Only one clear punch was thrown during this part of the forum; it occurred when Rebecca Dongarra referred to the two candidates who are new to the district.  She did not name them, but that information is easy enough to figure out.  More of a sharp elbow I suppose.

But this post is running long and the hour is getting late.  I will talk about the 13^th soon enough. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.