A Promise...and a Marker

This is not a legacy piece regarding Maryland State Senator Kasemeyer (D-12).  Frankly, this blog has argued that Kasemeyer could (and perhaps should) have faced a spirited primary challenge this cycle.

The Democratic Party, certainly in state legislative districts which are capable of electing thoughtful, civic-minded progressives, should nominate such individuals to be their standard bearers.  Of course, this is a reflection of Michael Harrington’s perspective on the importance of the “left wing of the possible.”

Of course, not every matter is strictly “ideological” in the classic meaning of the word.  It has already been noted that the delegation plays an important role on such issues as the manner of election of the Howard County Board of Education.  I concur with others than the retiring Senator missed an opportunity here.

However, there are a number of issues which do reflect progressive values and sensibilities. A short list would include, but is far from limited to, the following:

-          A $15 an hour state minimum wage

-          Either single-payer health care for Maryland, or at the very least a state run-public option

-          Movement towards tuition-free college in Maryland

-          The de-concentration of economic power through a more progressive state taxation structure

-          The practical expansion of the right to vote through same-day voter registration

Policy ideas matter.  They can change people’s day-to-day lives. They have real-world consequences.  To that end, this blog will taking a very close look at the policy platforms & prescriptions offered up by those who seek public office in Howard County, especially in my home district, the 12^th.   That is my guarantee to you, the reader.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

In solidarity.

Kasemeyer: Vulnerable in a Contested Primary?

First, Happy Presidents’ Day.  C-SPAN released their 2017 Survey of Presidential Leadership.  For the first time since C-SPAN began their rankings (2000 being the premiere year, and 2009 being the second), John Tyler slipped behind William Henry Harrison. (39^th and 38^th respectively).  This is mockery and a sham.  Say what you will about the miserable Confederate bastard, he faced down a surly Cabinet and insisted that he was, in fact, President upon the passing of Harrison.  Not “Acting” not still “Vice President,” but the full deal with all of the powers of the Office.  This set an important precedent.  For that, he deserves to finish ahead of Old Tippecanoe.  Slightly ahead.

Turning to the “just for fun” 12^th State Legislative District survey I recently fielded, it is vital to recall that it is not statistically valid.  It may, in fact, possess just a hint of directional value.  I made this clear from the outset so don’t come whining to me about it being too small a sample or not methodologically grounded or some similar gripe.  Go buy a Natty Boh and weep in it.

A total of 19 individuals participated in the study, hopefully all according to the rules (only one vote per person, must be registered voters who reside in the 12^th and plan on voting in the 2018 Democratic State Senate Primary Election).

The precise question verbiage was:

“Looking ahead to the 2018 Maryland State Senate Democratic Primary Election in the 12th Legislative District, would you prefer the Democratic nominee to be Ed Kasemeyer or someone else?”

The results are: 

Someone Else        63%

Ed Kasemeyer        37%

Something tells me that if I wrote this question for District 13, and the match-up was between Senator Guy Guzzone and “someone else,” Guzzone would have been the preference of 75%+ of the respondents (assuming a similar sample size and composition).

So what does this mean?  Perhaps absolutely nothing.  But maybe everything (as far as the known Universe consists of slices of two Maryland counties).  I think it means that a populist/progressive Democrat, with sufficient resources, could give Senator Kasemeyer a serious primary challenge.  At the risk of being reductionist: an outsider-y populist might play quite well in Baltimore County while someone more to the Left of Kasemeyer could appeal to the liberals who comprise a healthy percentage of the Democratic vote in Howard County.

In short, if Senator Kasemeyer wishes to seek re-election, he cannot take his base for granted.  Those numbers (albeit from a sample as large as two focus groups) are reminiscent of any one of a number of long-term incumbents who aren’t as connected with the grassroots as they should be.

Definitely something worth watching.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

  

  

Disappointed

By now, you have probably heard about the charge involving Brian Bailey’s connection with an amateurish website that attacked Rebecca Dongarra. 

Understanding that there is a much larger world beyond running for, or holding, public office…and having witnessed a fair amount of campaign-related foolishness over the years…I was still shocked and saddened when I read this article:

http://www.wbaltv.com/politics/md-house-candidate-charged-with-election-law-violation/26285876#!TI0Qo

While I was aware of the existence of bad blood between Bailey and Dongarra, I chalked that up to the emotions that churn up from a hard fought campaign…raw bitterness from the internecine struggles in SW Baltimore County, specifically County Council District One (where they ran against each other in 2010). 

In 2013, I met with both of them for the first time, separately of course, as I was trying to sort out which candidate(s) I would support in Maryland’s HD 12.   At that point, I knew (all things being equal and in the interest of geographic balance) that I wanted to endorse at least one candidate who resides in Baltimore County… perhaps two, depending on how the field shaped up.      

I met with Brian first.  I would like to believe that I have a fairly well developed bullshit detector and he came across as sincerely civic-minded and focused on working for the public good.

I recall that I told Rebecca during our introductory coffee/rap session that I decided to support Brian.  I reasoned that transparency trumped whatever awkwardness ensued…and even then it was only a minor conversational speed-bump in what was otherwise a pleasant discussion that was focused on various public policy matters and her vision of governance.

While I found Rebecca to be intelligent and personable, I thought Brian’s progressive outlook, in addition to his blue-collar background, history of community activism, relevant public policy experience, and ability to overcome some serious health issues made for a more compelling candidacy.

Combine that with my support for Dr. Terri Hill and Dr. Clarence Lam (both of whom I endorsed after Bailey) and I thought, “That would be one heck of a slate.”

Fast forward to Monday.

While I don’t know all of the facts, it doesn’t look good for Mr. Bailey.  If the statement from the news article is accurate, it appears as though Brian has taken responsibility for a violation of some sort.    

This blog has taken a firm stand against the ridiculous candidacy of disbarred attorney Michael Gisriel, and he deserves it.  The legal proceedings that culminated in the disbarment of Mr. Gisriel are a matter of public record.  That case has long been settled whereas the controversy involving Mr. Bailey seems to be fluid, ongoing.  That is a distinction based on the legal realities of both matters. In terms of ethics, there appear to be similarities at least as far as carelessness and/or bad judgment are concerned.  Perhaps a staffer did something monumentally stupid and Brian took the hit? I don't know.

Meanwhile, the political consequences cannot be ignored.  Bearing in mind all likely voter turnout models…and using the admittedly more amorphous, short-hand measure of relative placement in the two counties as opposed to the more meaningful diagnostic of actual vote projections…Brian’s candidacy depends on a strong showing in Baltimore County (first place or an extremely close second) and probably third place in Howard County…or a virtual tie for third where any deficits against Nick Stewart, Eric Ebersole and/or Dongarra would be covered by a positive margin in his home county.

This might have been a long-shot anyway, given the fundraising advantages enjoyed by the other candidates, but I believed there was a path for Mr. Bailey…perhaps slim and broken in places, but a path nonetheless to third place and a nomination.  I marked up my sample ballot with a big X next to Brian’s name just a couple of days ago.

But here we stand.  I believe that Lam and Hill are well-positioned to finish in the top three.  What follows next is a rather evenly divided field...with Stewart’s healthy coffers and the backing of Delegate Malone, with Ebersole running an energetic campaign with the support of many respected progressive organizations, and with Dongarra having a decent amount of resources and a fairly well-defined constituency.  

I am increasingly concerned that the self-funded, TV-ad running Gisriel will somehow slip into third place. 

I think Brian is a talented individual who has a bright career ahead of him.  I hope he continues to be an active community leader.  Based on what I know as of this writing, I can’t see myself voting for him in the Primary Election in 2014.  This blog is about decisions, and this was a tough one…but in light of this new information, and Brian’s apparent acknowledgement of responsibility in this matter, I don’t see how I could act otherwise.

I haven’t decided about the third slot yet. It is too soon. Perhaps I will cast a ballot for Sachs. Maybe I will just vote for Hill and Lam. 

However, given the importance of ensuring that Gisriel finishes no higher than fourth and knowing that one vote could make the difference, that means a third vote for one of the remaining viable alternatives…in no particular order…either Stewart, Ebersole or Dongarra.  At least there is some time to work out that question.

I am guessing Brian had rough day, but hope arrives anew with each sunrise. He will come out of this wiser.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Direct Mail Call

Enjoy hearing about D12? Direct mail?  This post is for you...

Yes, a video clip!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Crunch Time in Faulkner Ridge

Several weeks into a formerly crescent-fresh research assignment.  An increasingly immersive…and somnambulate…venture deep into the minds of those who study how humans learn, retain and apply knowledge during moments of considerable stress.  Still in the midst of this journey, hoping to wrap it up soon…at least take a break from it in a couple of days.  You see, an old friend of mine is coming into town this weekend.  He works in the Industry, in Los Angeles. He and I need to lock down a development deal for that movie I pitched a while back, “Smurfs: The Reckoning.”  Guess the studio didn’t go for the hard-R treatment. Thanks for nothing, Disney.

So little time to write in depth about community affairs, yet so many important events are taking place.  The Howard County Council recently passed the fiscal year 2015 budget, which funds our schools, the Merriweather Post Pavilion renovation, HCC, public health initiatives, libraries and many other programs and efforts that directly impact our quality of living.  All while being able to maintain a AAA credit rating (note: in February, Howard County was one of only 40 counties in the United States that obtained this rating, out of over 3,000 counties.  Source: The Baltimore Sun).  This is the 17^th consecutive year that the County has managed to secure the highest rating.  That is top-flight fiscal management and our County Executive and County Council deserve credit for a job well-done.

Juxtapose that with the Columbia Association shenanigans and one can see the vivid contrast between responsible governance and clown shoes. Which is actually not fair since a few members of the CA Board seem to have made the acquaintance of Reality and Progress.  The newcomers? That appears to be another story.     

If you haven’t already, you should check out Frank Hecker’s posts on renovating Merriweather.  Just an absolute wealth of knowledge there. All well-presented too.

http://frankhecker.com/

But the focus of this post is on yet another set of numbers, the first pre-primary gubernatorial campaign finance reports that were due by 11:59 pm on Tuesday, May 27, 2014. Some highlights:

On the surface, disbarred attorney Michael Gisriel appears to be in decent shape.  Gisriel, better known for playing the role of Colt Seavers in The Fall Guy, is sitting on over $86,000 cash-on-hand.  But he owes himself $85,000 in loans to his campaign.  Will he actually spend that money or will he cut his losses?  Even if he continues to cut checks, will it make any difference?  The product he is selling remains Michael Gisriel and I don't know if the voters of the 12^th are interested in that offering.  Yes he is on television but I have seen state legislative races where candidates with far healthier budgets spend their way to a fourth-place showing and 15% of the vote (in single-member districts).  They always wish they had kept the money and walked away from the table.  

  

In other D12 news:

Looking at cash-on-hand, Dr. Clarence Lam places second overall, with almost $74,000 in the bank.  Dr. Terri Hill’s campaign has slightly over $67,000 cash-on-hand following another solid fundraising period. 

Nick Stewart is fourth with a little over $42,600 cash-on-hand.  Eric Ebersole is next, with nearly $29,000 in his coffers.  Rebecca Dongarra is just north of $20,000 cash-on-hand ($20,767).

Rounding out the field are Renee McGuirk-Spence with $13,871, Adam Sachs with $1,607, Brian Bailey with $373, and Jay Fred Cohen, who filed his ALCE (Affidavit of Limited Contributions and Expenditures), indicating his intention to raise/spend less than $1,000 cumulatively.

Turning to 9B, Rich Corkran’s committee is in a precarious financial situation.  While he is sitting on $14,959 cash-on-hand, he owes himself $25,000 in personal loans he made to the campaign.  His report shows $12,055 in total receipts for the most recent filing period, that includes $10,000 in personal loans to his effort, another $1,000 from some other folks with the last name “Corkran” and a handful of other contributions.  In the meantime, he incurred over $20,000 in expenditures, largely on terrible direct mail-pieces. 

Meanwhile Tom Coale is showing $40,790 cash-on-hand, with over $26,900 in new receipts.  His is a true grassroots effort indicative of a campaign with a broad and deep base of support.

But my research beckons and I must return to that world. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

A Baker's Dozen (Minus One) - Endorsement Edition

Time to engage in some Right Mindfulness.  The four-mile jog this morning definitely helped reframe my thinking…a pouring of a fresh, hot cup o’ perspective.

So let us focus on Maryland's District 12 today, my home district.  But first some quick thoughts:

Yesterday, I attended the Thurgood Marshall Democratic Club of Howard County candidate forum/endorsement meeting.  It was an absolutely gorgeous April morning and, although woefully bereft of my coffee, spirits were high.  Prime parking near the hotel that was hosting the gathering was tight…but another driver waved me into a spot, although we arrived at roughly the same time.  As she drove past, I realized the driver was a candidate.  We briefly exchanged pleasantries.  Total class act.

This positive energy continued through TMDC President Ethel Hill’s opening remarks and County Council member Courtney Watson’s statement.  The peaceful easy feeling ended abruptly…like a car door being slammed on the third phalange…when Lisa Markovitz (County Council District 1 candidate) stated: “village centers should be retained, if possible.”  [Emphasis mine]. Cue record screech sound effect.  This is where the reasonable-seeming mask, and it is a mask, is coming off that campaign.   Maybe it was a verbal gaffe on her part…but I think it reveals a window into a “let’s go back to the past” mentality that is bad for area merchants, bad for local shoppers and bad for Howard County as we seek to support existing residents and businesses…and attract new ones…to help keep our communities vital.     

Let us return to District 12. No sense in allowing the ill humors to gain a foothold.  Here are my endorsements for the Democratic Primary Election.  There are three of them (the 12^th is a multi-member state legislative House District that elects three Delegates).

There is a question that pollsters ask, there are a few variations but it boils down to: “Does Candidate X understand the problems of people like me?”  I believe that Brian Bailey not only gets the challenges that families deal with in our district, but that he will be a capable advocate for our families in Annapolis.  I’ve been to multiple forums and he consistently presents a thoughtful plan for addressing some of the most pressing concerns facing Howard and Baltimore counties…ranging from education to job creation to transportation to environmental issues.  I hope that voters in our district take a good look at Mr. Bailey’s platform and consider the wide range of support that he is receiving from several progressive organizations. I’ve been around candidates long enough to sort the wheat from the chaff, the sincere from the phony, and the workhorses from the showhorses…I believe that Brian Bailey is the real-deal, ready to roll up his sleeves, and toil for the 12^th. I stand four-square behind Mr. Bailey and I hope he is nominated in June and elected in November.

Several months ago, I would have thought it unlikely that I would write the following words, but I am supporting Clarence Lam as well.  I had some early concerns about his positioning, but he has proven to be a formidable candidate. He must have a teleporter because he is all over the District.  He is smart, hard-working and has an impressive background as a health care practitioner (Dr. Lam is a “board-certified physician in preventative medicine at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health”) and as a public policy expert, having worked at the federal and state levels.  He is also active in the local community through multiple organizations.  The potential is there for a distinguished career in public service and that is why I support Clarence Lam for Delegate.

I wanted to endorse Dr. Terri Hill earlier, but something held me back. Perhaps some reflexive contrarian impulse kicked in when the Democratic establishment lined up in support of her candidacy (author’s note: I have a general predisposition in favor of insurgent campaigns).  That said, focusing on her stellar qualifications, her broad and deep knowledge about health care, and her commitment to social justice, I am convinced that Dr. Hill would be a great state legislator.  Harvard smart with an easy-going personality and accessible communications style, Terri Hill is ready, from “Day One” as the saying goes, to be an excellent representative for the 12^th District.

If I had a fourth vote, it would be for Adam Sachs.  A low-key fellow with some bold progressive ideas…with the moxie to quote Lou Reed as he did at a recent forum…it would be interesting to see what someone like him could do in Annapolis. 

In the interest of riding this endorphin wave for as long as possible, I am not going to comment at length on the other six Democratic candidates at this time. I have already written about disbarred attorney Michael Gisriel.  I think Cohen is a complete non-starter. The others (Ebersole, Stewart, Dongarra and McGuirk-Spence) all have positives and negatives, some have more of the latter than the former.  But that is a discussion for another day, if necessary.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

         

Gisriel Gets…What Exactly?

A one-time lawmaker should be expected to know and follow the law.  That is a reasonable enough starting-point.

Meet Michael Gisriel, disbarred attorney, long-time lobbyist and (relatively) new resident of Maryland's 12^th State House of Delegates District.  A completely unremarkable fellow, except for the fact that he wants to be one of the three Delegates elected from the 12^th.  Pump your brakes, Mike.

You might have seen his signs around town…or received one of his direct mail pieces featuring what appear to be photographs of the candidate from the ‘90s.  His slogan is “Gisriel Gets It Done!”

So what has Mr. Gisriel gotten done lately?

“The respondent, Michael Gisriel, having been found in violation of the Maryland Rules of Professional Conduct 1.1, 1.3, 1.4, 1.15, 3.1, and 8.4, was disbarred.”*

“Gisriel’s conduct, which constituted violations of many of the Rules of Professional Conduct, exacerbated by his hubris in the handling of the $1,000 check, warrants disbarment.” (5 – 2 majority, filed on June 18, 2009)

Source: http://mdcourts.gov/opinions/coa/2009/3a08ag.pdf

*[Rule 1.1 (Competence), Rule 1.3 (Diligence), Rule 1.4 (Communication), Rule 1.15 (Safeguarding Property), Rule 3.1 (Meritorious Claims and Contentions) and Rule 8.4 (Misconduct)]

His direct mail piece, presented as a “Report from Annapolis!,” is further evidence that Mr. Gisriel has lost the plot.  Running as an uber-insider, especially when one is a non-incumbent, is rarely a sound idea. His listed accomplishments involve such action verbs as “attended…spoke…spoke….and met.”  These are typical hallmarks of success for a lobbyist…. at least good for billable hours.  (possible new slogan: “Gisriel Gets Paid in Full"?)

His January 15, 2014 campaign finance report shows a number of contributions from individuals and organizations outside of the 12^th District.  His is not a grass-roots campaign.  It barely even qualifies as Astroturf. 

The only upside to his highly improbable nomination and election would be the joy I would experience calling my local friends on Wednesday, November 5, 2014 to see who among them wants to run for his seat in 2018.

Welcome to the 12th, Mr. Gisriel.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.