HoCo Executive Survey – Topline Observations

As a pollster/strategic communications counselor, I will probably be writing about survey research frequently this year.  Here are my thoughts on this new HoCo Exec Poll. 

-          If Calvin Ball (D) is down only 3% against Allan Kittleman (R) on an initial head-to-head ballot test, despite Kittleman leading on Name Identification by a whopping 41% margin (87% to presumably approximately 46% based on the data reported), then Ball is quite well-positioned to expand his electoral base.

-          Statistically, they are in a dead heat right now.

-          This poll indicates that Kittleman (at 42%) is far closer to his ceiling than Ball (at 39%).

-          It would have been better to release the results in mid-December.

-          I am not a huge fan of automated phone surveys conducted for political campaigns. I greatly prefer live interviewer studies.  Yes, they are more expensive, but they are worth it, especially if the interviewers are well-trained in data collection methods and best practices.

-          Sean Murphy, HoCo’s answer to Stephen Miller, tried to launch an attack, but he stumbled. Not exactly an A-game message.   Sade was not singing about him, as he is not a Smooth Operator.

-          I would love to see the geographic breakouts.  Assuming the study was conducted proportionate-to-probability, the subsample sizes for that race from each of the Council Districts are large enough to yield statistically significant data, albeit with a high(er) margin of error compared to the overall MoE (4% at the 95% level of confidence).

-         Would be great to see how the 19% Undecided broke out (by ideological affinity, by partisan affiliation, by geography, by gender, by race, by age, and by voting propensity and/or interest in voting in the upcoming 2018 elections).

-         As I said in 2013 – 2014, the County Executive race is one where the Democratic candidate can win with up to 58% of the vote, and the Republican candidate can win with up to 52% of the vote.  His path was narrower but Kittleman ran in a favorable GOP cycle.  Despite the increased Democratic registration since then, Kittleman enjoys incumbency in a (generally but far from universally) OK economy.  And 2018 (like 2014) is a non-presidential election cycle, where Democratic turnout tends to be lower. Perhaps frustration with Kittleman’s Republican Party will help send more Ds to the polls and lead more Unaffiliated (read: Independent) voters to vote D.  That said, I will stick with that 58% D – 52% R range from the last cycle.

-         Putting myself in their shoes, I would be mildly pleased with the findings if I was Ball and I would be slightly nervous if I was Kittleman.  In short, it was a good day for Dr. Ball.

In solidarity.

100% Positive

Comparative (some call it “negative”) campaigning has been with us since the early days of our Republic, even some of our Founders and their associates practiced it.  The first truly contested presidential elections under our Constitution – in 1796 and 1800 – were rife with vitriolic accusations and counter-accusations.  Rough and tumble politicking of the highest order. The Willie Horton ad, relatively speaking, was subtle and nuanced compared to some of the allegations that were printed in the newspapers of that era.   

So if you are opposed to comparative campaign tactics, you must be against the Founders and therefore, hate America. Commie swine!

Do I even need to write, “See what I did there?”

My point with this inelegant example is to recognize that pointing out the shortcomings of one’s political opponent(s) is generally well within the bounds of fair play in our democracy and that witless hand-wringing while bemoaning the so-called coarseness of modern elections is to miss the mark completely.

Don’t get it twisted, there were folks on both sides of the aisle, in Maryland, that engaged in comparative campaigning in 2014.  Sometimes it took the form of paid media, in other cases, attacks generated earned media.  In some communities, whisper campaigns via word-of-mouth or social media conveyed messages…information that wasn’t always grounded in that which the boffins call “facts.”  Sometimes attacks were cloaked as defensive statements.

So before one starts saying, “Golly gee, I reckon ‘negative’ campaigning doesn’t work.” Think again. You might not like it, and it might not appeal to “our better angels” but it serves a purpose…and it is often effective.  A back-and-forth on voting records and statements helps facilitate a free exchange of ideas and allows for the painting of more detailed portraits of those seeking public office.  Those on the receiving end may not appreciate the “warts and all” image of themselves, but it offers an electorate another way of thinking about someone who may represent them. 

Of course serious money is spent by campaigns in an effort to showcase/position their candidate in the most favorable light possible, and they will get miffed because comparative communications efforts require the expenditure of additional time and resources, both of which are precious, to ensure that the voters are hearing “our” story about our candidate as opposed to “their” narrative about our candidate.

Academic arguments can discuss the impact of such campaigns on political efficacy and voter turnout.  That subject will not be addressed here today. 

My point is that those on high horses tend to dismount quickly when it becomes advantageous for them/their political party to engage in such practices. So the “holier-than-thou” attitude gets very tiring, very fast…and often precedes behavior that could best be described as hypocritical. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

The Cacophony of the Desperate

A perfect day for a run today, did the 4-Mile/4-Village Loop…from the Wilde Lake Village Center (open for business with plenty of parking off of Cross Fox!) over to Harpers Farm Road, down Cedar Lane and past the Hospital to the long Hickory Ridge Road straight-away, left onto Broken Land Parkway and completing the route with a dash back up Twin Rivers.

Wish I could have enjoyed the scenery a bit more, but one discordant note kept popping up.  I recognized the tune.  It was the Cacophony of the Desperate, a solo composed by Rich Corkran, candidate for the Maryland House of Delegates. 

What does it say about Mr. Corkran when…

…he is a former teacher but the Howard County Education Association (HCEA), which represents more than 5,000 Howard County educators, endorses Tom Coale?

…he keeps repeating the refrain that he is a “lifelong Democrat,” but the Columbia Democratic Club and other progressive organizations and individuals support Tom Coale?

…he appears to spend a fair amount of time on Facebook attacking Tom Coale whereas Mr. Coale spends time engaging with other members of the community…talking about working collaboratively to find solutions to some of the challenges facing Howard County in general and District 9B in particular.

By launching his amateurish attacks, Mr. Corkran reveals himself to be what he is: a hollow candidate who can’t articulate a positive, substantive rationale for his campaign.   It is very disappointing that Mr. Corkran, who should know better, decided to go negative against a fellow Democrat. 

Mr. Corkran seems to forget the adage that politics is, fundamentally, about addition and not subtraction. 9B is a swing District.  For a Democrat to win the General Election, you need a top-flight, forward-thinking candidate who can also appeal to progressive-minded Independents (and yes, even a few Republicans…because some of them won’t be able to stomach the eventual GOP nominee).  I have seen candidates like Mr. Corkran before…too many times…they tend to lose and lose badly.  I don’t think the voters of 9B want to endure four years of either Bob Flanagan or Carol Loveless, and that nightmare scenario is far more likely to happen if the hapless Mr. Corkran were to become the Democratic standard-bearer.

Given a choice between:

Candidate A: A smart, serious-minded Democrat who is a problem-solver and who works well with others and who can win in November OR

Candidate B: A Democrat who spends time and resources attacking Democrats (much like a Republican would)…and who is likely to get stomped by whichever conservative Republican emerges out of their primary.

Well, the choice is not difficult. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.