Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Wait...there is a Pulse!

Projected Order of Finish:  Maryland’s 7th Congressional District – Special Primary Election
(As of 11/26/2019)
The top half:
1.     Senator Jill Carter.  22%.  Clear Left choice in a crowded field. Existing electoral base.
2.     Dr. Maya Rockeymoore Cummings.  19%.  Party connections & strong policy background.
3.     Former U.S. Representative Kweisi Mfume.  15%. Establishment. It’s not 1996 anymore.
4.     Delegate Dr. Terri Hill. 12%. Good progressive credentials & only top-flight HoCo candidate.  How much vote can her campaign pull out of Baltimore County and the City?
5.     Delegate Talmadge Branch.  8%. Majority Whip in Annapolis but an unclear path to D.C.
6.     Delegate Dr. Jay Jalisi.  6%.  A well-deserved humiliation for a walking embarrassment.
7.     Harry Spikes.  5%.  Cummings connections but faces the daunting challenge of shifting from aide to Member of Congress.
8.     Saafir Rabb.  2%. Interesting business/community background.
9.     Dr. Mark Gosnell.  1.5%.  Been in the race for a while.  Where is his constituency?
10.  Dr. Leslie Grant.  1%.  Good health care credentials.
11.  F. Michael Higginbotham. 1%.  Solid legal/academic background.
12.  Anthony Carter Sr.  1%. Arguably, the strongest of the three candidates running this time who primaried Congressman Cummings in 2018. 
Topline thoughts: 
The top four candidates have a legitimate chance of winning the February primary.   In a likely low-turnaround election, one that is driven by the base D vote, it is difficult to see Senator Carter finishing worse than a strong second place… with an upside that could see her finish with a victory with 30%-33% of the vote.  Overall, her odds of winning: 3-2.
On paper, a candidate such as Dr. Rockeymoore Cummings could absolutely crush it with 40%-45% of the vote but with so many credible establishment candidates in the field, her odds of winning are substantially reduced, 3-1.
Former Congressman Mfume stands to benefit the most if the non-Carter front-runners collapse and Branch & Jalisi (as expected) under-perform.  That said, he is running in a district quite different from the one he represented before he resigned his office in 1996.  Odds of Mfume winning the primary: 5-1
Meanwhile Dr. Hill needs to win Howard County by a resounding margin, be highly competitive in Baltimore County, and pull a respectable double-digit figure in the City to obtain, by a narrow margin, the nomination.  Not impossible, but challenging. Dr. Hill’s odds of winning: 6-1.
And the other 12:
13.  Charles Stokes. < 1%. The second of the three 2018 D primary challengers to Rep. Cummings.  Finished only 20 votes behind Carter Sr.
14.  Paul Konka. <1%.  Finished second (albeit a distant second) in the Baltimore County Board of Education (District 3) race. Lost in the general by a wide margin.
15.  T. Dan Baker. < 1%. Public health background but a virtual unknown.
16.  Darryl Gonzales. <1%. Educator.
17.  Nathaniel Costley, Sr. <.5%. Ran in the 10th House District Democratic primary (same seat as Jalisi) in 2018.  Finished 5th of 6 candidates. 
18. Adrian Petrus. < .5%. Frequent candidate.
19.  Jay Fred Cohen. <.5%.  Why?
20.  Jermyn “Mike” Davidson. <.5%. Does.
21.  Matko Lee Chullin III. <.5%. It.
22.  Alicia Brown. <.5%. Really.
23.  Dan Hiegel.  <.5%. Matter.
24.  Charles Smith. <.5%.  Third of the aforementioned three ’18 D primary challengers.
Note:  Top 4 candidates garner 68% of the vote.  Top 7 candidates account for 87% of the vote.
In solidarity.