Pocketbook Abattoir

Quick thoughts on the fundraising numbers. 

Normally, the release of the campaign finance data results in a couple of candidates pondering how to exit the room most gracefully.  This time around, it is challenging to see who is in clear mortal peril.  Let’s start at the top and focus on surprises:

Governor’s Race: Baker and Kamenetz both clear $1.0M raised in the reporting period (2017), but the latter leads the former in the critically important Cash on Hand category by a sizable margin ($2.0M to $696K.  Note – all figures are from my hand-scrawled notes. Second note – loans are important to acknowledge as distinguishing between financial backing expressed through contributions vs. self-financing is one, albeit just one, indicator of “public” support.  However, money spends like money so I am not breaking out loan data here.

So Shea has $1.3M Cash on Hand. Big deal.  Show me his constituency.  He – like Ross – will probably have to rely on a “well, if we finish in second place everywhere, we have a shot at this” strategy.  Between the two, I think Ross is better situated to execute such a maneuver, and even then, he is unlikely to pull it off.  Unless Shea starts distinguishing himself on Issues (yes, I will get to Madaleno soon), I don’t know where his campaign goes.  Just another well-funded vanity exercise?  Possibly. An audition for the LG slot?  Perhaps.

Jealous pulled in $1.25M in 2017, more than Baker and Kamenetz, it should be noted.  But he started from $0 and he had a relatively high burn rate, so he is showing just shy of $400K.  His union and progressive support and ability to garner paid media attention still make him a serious force.  He needs to consolidate the left though (fine, Rich, give me one second).

Sen. Madaleno strikes me as similar to a thoughtful, left-of-center Michigan politico named Lynn Jondahl.   Jondahl was a respected figure in Michigan politics for decades, a long-time member of the state House of Representatives (a Delegate in Maryland verbiage).  He ran for Governor in 1994 and he finished 4^th in the Democratic primary with around 10% of the vote.  Madaleno has only $193K CoH, but I anticipate he will continue to make some noise in Annapolis through policy proposals (like the $15 minimum wage bill he is introducing with Delegate Hettleman).  Probably just visible enough to appeal to good-government, media and policy-attentive progressives.  Can he build a constituency large enough to capture a plurality in Montgomery County? Maybe.  Could he finish in the top 3 in neighboring Howard County? Conceivably.  This author – who has not yet selected a favorite – believes that Madaleno would be a very good Governor, but I am not seeing an easy path to the Democratic nomination for the Senator.

Krish Vignarajah, whose website can be found here: http://krishformaryland.com/, had a better than expected showing.  I fell asleep before her numbers were posted. I woke up expecting her to have a CoH figure around Madaleno’s and definitely south of Jealous.  $405 CoH, with a very frugal burn rate (only $25K in expenditures compared to $431K raised) is not bad at all.  With these numbers, her campaign clears the threshold of “serious.” In a low turnout primary, a woman who is a policy wonk with sufficient money in the bank can be well-positioned to make a move…particularly going into the televised debate season and especially if folks like Baker and Kamenetz start going after each other.  Can Vignarajah pull off a Feingold ’92?  I don’t see why she couldn’t.  

I will focus on other state and local races shortly.  Back to work.

In solidarity.  

Gov Talk

The present author has been making an effort to re-engage with some political folks recently.  I honestly don’t know if this site will feature the wall-to-ceiling-to-cold attic coverage that was the case with Campaign ’14: The Search for Spock. That said, I figure my readership would like some trenchant insights on such matters, so here goes:

I spoke with Krish Vignarajah for about 10 minutes a few days back.  I found her to be smart, engaging, and not put off by my idiosyncratic candor.  I let her know that I listened to her appearance on Howard County’s finest café-based podcast, Elevate Maryland, and I had some questions regarding one attribute of her campaign’s positioning (consensus-oriented).  Her rationale was thoughtful and (wearing my former operative flat cap) I can’t deny the strategic soundness of it.  That said, for my tastes, I prefer a bit of a harder progressive/populist edge in terms of rhetoric and platform elements.

Of course, the candidate whose positioning is most likely closest to my own, Ben Jealous, has not yet won me over.  I have to say that his MD-Care plan is an excellent proposal; one that would bring universal care to the residents of the Old Line State. I’m just not sold on the Jealous/Turnbull ticket which, considering the ideological and organizational overlap (Sanders supporter, member of Our Revolution, lifetime member NAACP, etc…) seems odd.  Is it him? Me?  Both? Neither?

I tend to favor Electeds, which amounts to a lack of a checkmark for both of the aforementioned candidates for Governor, as well as some others. 

That said, as of his writing, it is unlikely that I would vote for the two County Executives currently in the race.  I don’t know if Kevin Kamenetz offers the best contrast against Governor Hogan.   Rushern Baker has a fine record of accomplishment but, like warm oatmeal, his campaign lacks a certain excitement.  I suppose demonstrated managerial competence alone is worth something, but it didn’t work for Dukakis in ’88.  But Baker is not alone there, as Ms. Vignarajah has also had management responsibilities for billion-dollar budgets.

So, as I told Krish (ok, that is striking my ear is too familiar…Ms. Vignarajah it is), she is in my top tier for consideration: a club consisting of herself, Senator Rich Madaleno (progressive, a policy wonk, an Elected, and I used to live in his district), Dr. Maya Rockeymoore Cummings (good credentials), and Mr. Jealous.

In any event, I can’t see myself backing anyone until after the February 27 filing deadline.  But who knows?  Perhaps I will make up my mind over the Holidays, when I have more time to reflect on life beyond work and my classes.

For those with time, this video of Ms. Vignarajah delivering a commencement speech is worth checking out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Dy2Yecd0PM

In solidarity.

Annapolis Quest: New 2018 MD Gov Poll - a Dissection

From the Desk of S. MacCune: Amateur Harbor Master

A new poll was released regarding the 2018 Maryland Gubernatorial contest – a proverbial “snapshot” of a race which is simultaneously embryonic yet well underway.   Information can be found here:

https://marylandmattersblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/22/poll-shows-gansler-faring-better-against-hogan-than-other-dems/

Now, the regular author of this blog, being a former political pollster (and God knows he doesn’t keep that a secret) is generally loathe to discuss the work of other pollsters.  Any criticisms, well-founded or otherwise, tend to come across as 2000s-era Gore Vidal-esque sneering.  Which is why he asked me to use my fresh yet bleary eyes to cover this critical non-story.  Which is an awesome use of my precious time.  

I know Mr. Considerations leans in the direction of Mr. Jealous, Sen. Madaleno, or Del. McIntosh (with the former two being the most likely to be on the June 2018 primary election ballot as candidates for Governor).  Obviously, my unfettered neutrality is precisely what this blog needs. 

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever): Study Design & Methodology

•      The Sample Size/Margin of Error (as noted in the story)
•    The Sample Composition (by Party ID, etc…)
•    The Sample Selection Process (RDD, Voter lists, etc…)
•    The Data Collection Methodology (telephone (live interviewer), telephone (no live interviewer, IVR, etc…), online, etc…)

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever):  Findings

•     Intensity of Feeling on the Favorable/Unfavorable ratings (Strong/Somewhat)
•      Gradations on the ballot tests (definitely/probably/lean)
•      If the ballot tests released are initial/cold ballot tests…or if those numbers followed batteries of questions about the actual/prospective candidates.

What I found interesting is that Gansler, considering his statewide profile, was not *that* much better known compared to some of his likely rivals for the Democratic nomination. 

Does he lead the D field? Sure, just like Ted Kennedy did in early ’84 match-ups for President (he didn’t run that cycle), Joe Lieberman in early ’04 surveys (he ran but finished poorly), and Rudy Giuliani (on the R side) in early ’08 surveys (see note on Lieberman).   It’s a Name ID advantage but it is far from insurmountable.

Among registered D’s, Gansler’s Name ID is +16 over the next closest individual tested (Jealous) but his Favorability rating is only 11 points higher, while his Unfavs are 5 points higher than Jealous.  His Fav/Unfav ratio is just about 5:1, which is decent, but Jealous is at 7:1 Fav/Unfav, while Delaney is @ 10:1 (Baker and Kamenetz are both in the 3:1/4:1 range).

On the ballot test, Gansler at -9 is right around where a Generic D places against Hogan (-10).  Assuming a Margin of Error in the +/- 5% zone, at the 95% level of confidence, Delaney (-13), Baker (-14), Kamenetz (-15), and Jealous (-16) are all within striking distance of Gansler. 

Now, if Gansler were up, tied, or in the low single digits behind Hogan, that would be news.  But he is - at most- only slightly ahead of the peloton.  And most of the course is ahead of the field.

Stay tuned as, etc…

Maryland Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Survey Results – April Fool-Free Zone

Disclaimers first:  this was a “fun” poll…it is not based on proportionate-to-probability sampling of the likely electorate.  The findings are not projectable.  Most of the study respondents are probably highly informed/politically engaged individuals who reside in the Greater Howard County Metropolitan Region.  The data collection mechanism was via social media platforms, with my Facebook friends and Twitter followers constituting all, or almost all, of the study participants.  The total N was 40, about the size of 4 or 5 standard focus groups.

With all of the above in mind, that doesn’t mean there weren’t some interesting results…

Question: Looking ahead to the 2018 Maryland Democratic Primary Election for Governor, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

1)    Total number of votes won by Rushern Baker, John Delaney, Kevin Kamenetz, and Dutch Ruppersberger combined?  Zero.  Analysis:  I would have expected at least a smattering of votes for the two County Execs and the two Congressmen, primarily the former three. 

2)    So who “won?”  Former County Executive and LG nominee Ken Ulman (20%).  Analysis:  I intentionally kept this a one question survey, so I didn’t ask where the respondents resided. So, I can’t run crosstabs by such demographics.  That said, this outcome is not surprising.  That also said, it is clear that there is no overwhelming front-runner in this still-evolving and largely “invisible primary.”

3)    Most interesting outcomes:  The strength of Delegate Maggie McIntosh (15%), Senator Rich Madaleno (12.5%), and former president and CEO of the NAACP Ben Jealous (10%).  Analysis:  it stands to reason that the progressive wing of the party has been energized following the 2016 election results and that such candidates would fare well in these early ballot tests.  Full disclosure: my current “favorite(s)” can be found on this short list.

4)    Mild surprise.  Former MD AG Doug Gansler (7.5%).  Analysis: this has to be driven in large measure by Name ID.  Where precisely is the Gansler constituency in today’s Maryland Democratic Party? 

5)    Receiving two votes:  Congressman John Sarbanes (5%).  Analysis: good political name, decent visibility, has sort of a “goo-goo” issue profile among the cognoscenti. Not certain if I see him as the best option to take on Hogan in 2018…but apparently at least two people do.   

6)    One-voters: Current Delegate and former Congressional candidate Joseline Pena-Melnyk and “technology executive and author” Alec Ross (2.5% apiece).  Analysis: it should be noted that one of the write-ins was “anyone but Joseline Pena-Melynk.”  Ouch.  Ross, on paper and as of this writing, profiles as a different sort of candidate…and if he can raise enough $, he could finish in the top three in a primary…with 15% of the vote.  

7)    There were a total of 10 write-ins (25%).  Analysis: normally, I would attribute this relatively high figure to a design flaw in the questionnaire.  But then I saw the names and realized several people were doing wish lists (again, a manifestation of their dissatisfaction with The Establishment, such as it is), some were undecided, and a couple of respondents were just having fun.  There were four serious names, all receiving one vote apiece:  AG Brian Frosh (2.5%), former Congresswoman and U.S. Senate candidate Donna Edwards (2.5%), former Delegate and candidate for Governor Heather Mizeur (2.5%), and Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner (2.5%).  I voted for three of those four candidates in recent cycles, all fine choices. I already mentioned one of the “other” write-ins…which leaves two other names, neither of which I will report here, one “none of the above,” one “undecided,” and one “sigh.”

8)    Oh yes, influential attorney and former chairman of the University of Maryland Board of Regents James Shea, zero votes.  Analysis: welcome to dark-horse country! Hope the exploration is going well.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Episode 90: The GOP Awakens (2016)

Well I promised a brief look at the potential contours of, and possible candidates within, the 2016 GOP field, so here it goes:

First, my long-list contains 64 names.  Beyond the Heavyweights and several Contenders, it includes some complete non-starters, a few has-beens, and a couple of never-was types.  The most shocking element here is that the road to the Republican presidential nomination is so open that many of the lesser names could gaze into a mirror and say, without an excessive amount of self-delusion, “You know, I could pull 15,000 votes in Iowa and win a ticket to New Hampshire.”  And the mirror wouldn’t even laugh back.

Charlie Cook, the celebrated political analyst and prognosticator of the highest order (who, by the way, nailed the closeness of the MD gubernatorial race while some folks Who Shall Remain Nameless were saying that LG Anthony Brown had a 93% chance of victory), was recently quoted in The Kansas City Star as expecting the eventual GOP nominee to be a “tea party Senator or Governor from the Midwest.”

Actually that call isn’t as bold as it might seem.  If you winnow the list of names down to the 20 candidates most likely to run, and further assume that only around 12 of those will go as far as establishing an exploratory committee, there are multiple tea party-aligned Senators and heartland Governors in the mix [in boldface below].  Let’s assume the following field going into August of next year:

Senator Rand Paul (KY)

Senator Ted Cruz (TX)

Governor Bobby Jindal (LA)

Dr. Ben Carson (MD)

Governor Rick Perry (TX)

Former US Senator Rick Santorum (PA) or former Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)

Business Executive Carly Fiorina (CA)

Governor Chris Christie (NJ)

Former Governor Jeb Bush (FL) or (unlikely) former Governor Mitt Romney (MA)

Governor Scott Walker (WI)

Former UN Ambassador John Bolton (MD)

Possibly either Governor Mike Pence (IN) or Governor John Kasich (OH)

And a couple of others, such as a Congressman Peter King (NY) or Senator Bob Corker (TN)

Carson falls somewhere between Morry “The Grizz” Taylor and former Senator Fred Thompson on the Serious Candidate Spectrum.  Is he really running for a statewide office in Maryland?  For an appointment as Surgeon General? Stay tuned, as…

Wait. I am not done.  Bolton is one-note on defense and is no more than a Cabinet possibility at best.  If you assume the “others” will end up being “also-rans” then at least a third and possibly close to half of the Serious Candidates [in terms of likelihood of obtaining the nomination, not necessarily ability to govern] will be tea party Senators or Rust Belt Govs.

Oh did I forget Senator Marco Rubio (FL)?  No.   I think he will choose to take a pass and look for another opportunity down the road. I think he understands that the electorate likes to “fix” the perceived shortcomings of the current Administration.   Carter too soft, too bogged down in details?  Let’s get a tough talking, CEO-type in Reagan.  George HW Bush too out-of-touch with the problems of working families?  Let’s elect the populist from Arkansas who eats at McDonald’s. George W. Bush doesn’t have the intellectual heft? Let’s vote for the Brainiac Senator from Illinois.  Obama too cerebral/aloof, lacking a long history of building relationships with Congress?  Perhaps it’s time for someone who comes across as warmer, or someone who has been around the Establishment longer, a “Known Entity.”    Hmmm…

Of course this is all incredibly reductionist.  If I had to bet, I would say the Republican field will consist of six Serious possibilities after the Iowa caucuses (slightly more than the historical norm as I believe multiple campaigns will be prepping for a long, drawn-out process).  There will be two social conservatives, two more establishment types, Rand Paul and someone else, perhaps Fiorina.  In the end, I expect it will come down to a slog for delegates with perhaps as many as three Serious candidates competing until the end of the primary season.  The Establishment choice (Bush although I would keep an eye on Pence), Rand Paul and maybe someone who was accruing just enough Delegates along the way to prevent anyone else from obtaining a majority, someone who might use that clout at the Convention to get a spot on the ticket or at least be a king (or queen) maker.  Senator Cruz may be that third person in this scenario.  Oh for the joys of a Brokered Convention.  Let the political scientists dream!

Anyway, I am certain I will talk about the individual attributes and policy stances of all of these people, and others, over the course of the next 14 months or so.  Everyone is in their decision-making mode now.  Go/No Go.  Internal/family deliberations will conclude over the next few weeks.  I expect a couple candidates will announce early, in the first quarter of 2015, while most will state their intentions in April, May and early June of next year.

Just a bit of Hot Stove League speculation as we hurtle toward 1/1/15.   

Looking forward to focusing a bit more on state and local public policy issues in the coming weeks.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Surface Tension: A Topline Post Election Wrap-Up

There will be time for a deep dive into the numbers.  Now is not the moment.  Here are some initial observations regarding last night’s Election results:

The recent high-water mark for a Maryland gubernatorial race is Governor Martin O’Malley’s 56.2% in his 2010 re-election bid.  (Side note: what is he going to say in Des Moines? In Cedar Falls? In Sioux City?).   In 2006, he won with 52.7% and four years prior to that, the Democratic nominee for Governor obtained only 47.68% of the statewide vote.

My point is that Maryland has witnessed some competitive Governor’s races, four of the last six being won by single-digit margins. So even with the demographic trends of recent years, the 2014 gubernatorial election was unlikely to be a cakewalk. But any serious Democratic nominee for that office would have to be considered a significant favorite going into a general election contest.

Yet Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown lost, to a B-tier Republican candidate.  I believe this occurred because:

1)   Maryland was not immune from the Democratic shellacking that occurred nationwide.

2)   Biography aside, his campaign was uninspiring.  Yes, I was a Mizeur voter in the primary but I cast my ballot for Brown in the general; even though the campaign didn’t communicate much in the way of a positive rationale for such an act.

3)   Democratic turnout in MD was lower than expected. I don’t have the final or even penultimate numbers in front of me, but there was an enthusiasm/activation gap…and the Republicans ran a stronger than expected GOTV operation.  Also, the GOP brand seems to have recovered a bit from the earlier post-Bush 43 years, even though voters still show high dissatisfaction levels with both parties and with the both the President and Congress.

4)   “Articulation”-oriented campaign (covered elsewhere in this blog) can be tough.  You find yourself running against your opponent and the perceived sins of the affiliated incumbent administration.  I don’t believe the Brown campaign pulled together a truly compelling/cohesive narrative when discussing the O’Malley record.

Senator Allan Kittleman, apparently Howard County Executive-elect, would have been Governor-elect had he tossed his hat into that ring instead.  I am guessing he knows I am right on this matter.

How bad was it for Democrats locally?  Congressman Cummings' GOP opponent garnered 43.89% of the vote in the Howard County portion of the 7^th Congressional District and said opponent would, charitably, be called a perennial candidate. 

It appears as though Jon Weinstein pulled off a victory in Councilmanic District 1, a true swing constituency.  How did he accomplish this? I believe he did an excellent job of localizing the election, framing the race on local issues and concerns.  That appealed to a majority of voters in the First.

I still maintain that Courtney Watson ran a strong campaign for County Executive.  Look, had they not attempted to reposition Kittleman, he probably would have won with 55% of the vote in an election cycle such as this.  The comparative effort was necessary and generally decently executed.  Moreover, Watson provided numerous reasons to vote for her, not just against Kittleman.  She had a good narrative but it just wasn’t enough in a Rejection Election cycle (you can read more about that concept here: http://www.michiganliberal.com/diary/7278/).

The biggest bummer of the evening, for me, was 9B.   From a technical perspective, it would be hard to find a Maryland campaign better run than Tom Coale’s.  Running a positive citizen-neighbor-legislator style effort that was focused on local issues and finding practical solutions for the present and the future…it simply wasn’t enough to overcome a well-known GOP opponent in a highly competitive single-member House of Delegates district.

On the Howard County Board of Education, the results were not a huge surprise.  I voted the Apple Ballot because I believe they would have been an effective team.  In terms of intensity, I was primarily concerned with electing Altwerger (who won) and Beams (who did not…which was very disappointing).  That said, I am not displeased that Christine O’Connor won a seat.  I was not thrilled when she allied herself with Mike Smith, that decision dropped her to the fifth position on my list, but she was in the running for a while.  And thank goodness that neither Smith nor Dyer finished in the top four.

At some point, I am going to talk about people who sought public office this cycle that were unsuccessful...but who should run again.  But I am too cranky to write about 2016 or 2018 right now.  Let’s call it a post.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Elections and Consequences

I, for one, am elated that Election Day is fast approaching.  I am looking forward to a respite from campaign analysis; and a shift to writing about other topics of interest. So stay tuned as more will….not so fast.

This one is for progressive-minded Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated HoCo voters who are undecided or possibly Kittleman-leaning in the Howard County Executive race.  Let’s play a game of “What If?”

Let’s assume the following scenario:  Larry Hogan – a B-tier GOP gubernatorial candidate - loses to LG Anthony Brown in November, by a single-digit margin, while Senator Allan Kittleman manages to pull off an upset and is elected the next Howard County Executive. 

Given this set of circumstances, Kittleman immediately becomes the R-to-watch and the front-runner for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2018.  Moreover, he would have a genuine shot at winning, as he is clearly more serious than Hogan (who isn't a slouch, but still...).

So by voting for Kittleman this November, you are helping to position a surprisingly conservative Republican for statewide office…someone who received a failing grade from the Maryland State Education Association while obtaining an “A” from the National Rifle Association and possessing a 100% rating from Maryland Right-to-Life.

Neither a moderate temperament nor a centrist voting record on a couple of issues can obscure the reality that Kittleman is not the progressive choice in the race for Howard County Executive.  So my advice, not that you asked for it, is to take a careful look at the totality of his voting history and issue stances and ask yourself, is this someone who will be the best advocate for families and communities like mine or is there a better choice? 

And will a vote for him now help elect a rather conservative Republican Governor in Maryland in 2018?  Just something to consider.

Oh yes...stay tuned, as more will follow.   

Cabal of the Simple-Minded

So I split for Hispaniola for half of a fortnight and I return to find Brown/Ulman up by only six over Hogan/Rutherford.  

I can only assume some as of yet unnamed madness enveloped the Free State while I was roaming the streets of Santo Domingo, searching for an establishment that served high caliber mofongo.  My old friend and current expat, Slats, recommended a spot 18 miles away in Boca Chica – but the roads were far too treacherous and the moon too high in the sky to hazard such a journey. 

But I digress.  The purveyors of Conventional Wisdom, referenced in the title, would have you believe that the Maryland gubernatorial election should be a cakewalk for the Democratic ticket.  “Safe D” they say. 

I still believe that LG Brown will be our next Governor. That said, at this stage of the game, our Dream Team is coming across a bit more Gamble and Hoitz.  For those who recall that film, it worked out in the end but it damn sure wasn’t pretty.

Caveat: I don’t know the particular methodology of the latest aforementioned survey nor have I explored the internals.   This poll could very well be an outlier.  Other, earlier opinion research from June and July shows a Brown lead in the 15% range.  Personally, as of this writing, I feel the lead is in the 10% ballpark.

My larger point is that Republican candidates for Governor can, and have, won in deep-blue states.   Let’s look at some (fairly) recent examples:

In Vermont in 2000, Gore captured 50.6% of the vote, with Nader pulling in another seven percent; then-Governor Bush finished with 40.7%.  Four years later, Kerry secured 58.9% compared to 38.8% for President Bush.  In 2002, Jim Douglas (a Republican) eked out a 45% plurality and won against a Democratic Lieutenant Governor.

Want a better case study?  Sure, how about Massachusetts.  In 2000, Gore carried the state with 59.8% of the vote with Nader obtaining another 6.4%.  Bush? A mere 32.5%.  In 2004, Kerry crushed Bush 61.9% - 36.8%.  In 2002, some Michigan transplant called Mitt defeated the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (the State Treasurer) by a 49.8% - 44.9% margin.  

How about closer to home?  In 2000, Gore won Maryland with 56.5% while Bush managed only 40.3%.  In 2004, the margin tightened a bit – with Kerry only able to win by 13% (55.9% - 42.9%).  Meanwhile, in 2002, GOPer Bobby Haircut beat a Kennedy, also the state LG, with 51.55% of the vote.

Now, 2002 was an odd election cycle – being the first following 9/11.  That said, non-presidential general elections, with lower turnout, can be grim for Democratic office-seekers.

Here is my take on the political realities:

First, many Democrats who did not participate in the primary will vote for the ticket in November.  They just aren’t focused on the race yet.  The challenge is that they need a reason to pay attention and I don’t believe that the Brown/Ulman team is providing a compelling rationale for activation….at least not yet. 

Beyond that, and this applies to a relatively tiny but important slice of the Democratic electorate, there are still some hurt feelings from a bruising primary.  I believe the vast majority of Mizeur and Gansler voters will come home, but some won’t.  I can see a handful from both camps sitting this one out, with perhaps a small percentage of Mizeur voters voting Libertarian while a few Gansler people cross over to vote for Hogan.  Not hordes of voters mind you, but such races can be decided at the margins, by thousands of votes scattered across the state. 

Perhaps Labor Day will witness a spectacular re-unveiling of Brown/Ulman.  That said, it is a little too quiet, even by August standards.  And those who believe that a built-in D advantage ensures their victory would do well to ponder the political fates of Doug Racine, Shannon O’Brien and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.  Brown/Ulman need to consolidate the Democratic base, appeal to Independents and reachable Rs - starting now - otherwise they might be spending more time in La Romana than Annapolis come January.  Slats can hook them up. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.