Annapolis Quest: New 2018 MD Gov Poll - a Dissection

From the Desk of S. MacCune: Amateur Harbor Master

A new poll was released regarding the 2018 Maryland Gubernatorial contest – a proverbial “snapshot” of a race which is simultaneously embryonic yet well underway.   Information can be found here:

https://marylandmattersblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/22/poll-shows-gansler-faring-better-against-hogan-than-other-dems/

Now, the regular author of this blog, being a former political pollster (and God knows he doesn’t keep that a secret) is generally loathe to discuss the work of other pollsters.  Any criticisms, well-founded or otherwise, tend to come across as 2000s-era Gore Vidal-esque sneering.  Which is why he asked me to use my fresh yet bleary eyes to cover this critical non-story.  Which is an awesome use of my precious time.  

I know Mr. Considerations leans in the direction of Mr. Jealous, Sen. Madaleno, or Del. McIntosh (with the former two being the most likely to be on the June 2018 primary election ballot as candidates for Governor).  Obviously, my unfettered neutrality is precisely what this blog needs. 

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever): Study Design & Methodology

•      The Sample Size/Margin of Error (as noted in the story)
•    The Sample Composition (by Party ID, etc…)
•    The Sample Selection Process (RDD, Voter lists, etc…)
•    The Data Collection Methodology (telephone (live interviewer), telephone (no live interviewer, IVR, etc…), online, etc…)

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever):  Findings

•     Intensity of Feeling on the Favorable/Unfavorable ratings (Strong/Somewhat)
•      Gradations on the ballot tests (definitely/probably/lean)
•      If the ballot tests released are initial/cold ballot tests…or if those numbers followed batteries of questions about the actual/prospective candidates.

What I found interesting is that Gansler, considering his statewide profile, was not *that* much better known compared to some of his likely rivals for the Democratic nomination. 

Does he lead the D field? Sure, just like Ted Kennedy did in early ’84 match-ups for President (he didn’t run that cycle), Joe Lieberman in early ’04 surveys (he ran but finished poorly), and Rudy Giuliani (on the R side) in early ’08 surveys (see note on Lieberman).   It’s a Name ID advantage but it is far from insurmountable.

Among registered D’s, Gansler’s Name ID is +16 over the next closest individual tested (Jealous) but his Favorability rating is only 11 points higher, while his Unfavs are 5 points higher than Jealous.  His Fav/Unfav ratio is just about 5:1, which is decent, but Jealous is at 7:1 Fav/Unfav, while Delaney is @ 10:1 (Baker and Kamenetz are both in the 3:1/4:1 range).

On the ballot test, Gansler at -9 is right around where a Generic D places against Hogan (-10).  Assuming a Margin of Error in the +/- 5% zone, at the 95% level of confidence, Delaney (-13), Baker (-14), Kamenetz (-15), and Jealous (-16) are all within striking distance of Gansler. 

Now, if Gansler were up, tied, or in the low single digits behind Hogan, that would be news.  But he is - at most- only slightly ahead of the peloton.  And most of the course is ahead of the field.

Stay tuned as, etc…

More in Sorrow than in Anger

I don’t know Greg Fox that well, but he strikes this author as the lumbering embodiment of the Peter Principle.  In my former career as a Very Important Republican ™, I would meet office-holders like Fox all of the time…generally hyper-parochial and somewhere on the George Babbitt spectrum of unoriginal.  Entirely unremarkable…of whom little is given, less is expected. And on that measure, Fox does not disappoint.

The point of this is to say that when folks hold themselves up to a higher standard of progressive thinking, unlike Fox, they had better deliver the goods.  This is where word has to match up with deed and this is where Allan Kittleman, with his promised veto of the sanctuary bill, falls short.  If you want to be a different kind of Republican, now is the time to demonstrate your values by your actions.  I read his statement and found a great deal of the rationale therein to be disingenuous fear-mongering.  Right out of the old Newt Gingrich/Joe Gaylord playbook.  I didn’t see anything that was reassuring in the least to those who might feel “othered,” Not even a nod recognizing legitimate fears, like those expressed by the woman in Tom Coale’s excellent piece today. 

So I can only believe that this is the real Allan Kittleman, or that he is posturing for another office and he feels the need to align himself, on this wedge issue, closer to where the Maryland GOP base is. 

On a related note, do I know what Governor Hogan’s plans are?  Oddly enough, Big Lar’ doesn’t confide in me his electoral intentions.  His loss.  At least he had the fortitude to grab for the brass ring in ‘14.  I, personally, would wager at this moment that he runs for re-election, but something closer to 60% likelihood on that, in short, not a slam dunk.  His favorability numbers are quite good now, but so were George H.W. Bush’s approval ratings in early ’91.  Even if he runs for re-election, I believe it will be a tough road for Hogan assuming the Democrats nominate a half-way decent candidate.  Maybe he wants to focus on governance and not on campaigning?  Take the James K. Polk approach perhaps.  Stranger things have happened. 

If he doesn’t seek re-election, the lack of anything near a deep bench means that the GOP will be looking for any Republicans who might be electable, and with Kittleman’s positioning on the sanctuary bill, he might just be palatable enough to emerge as the GOP nominee in ’18.   We should know about Hogan’s plans within the next few months.  Stay tuned.

In the meantime, all “Democrats for Kittleman” should remember where he stood on the sanctuary issue.  Maybe it’s time to donate those T-shirts.

Next up:  Thoughts on 2 and 3, probably before the end of this weekend.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

A Very "Special" County Executive Preview

From the Desk of S. MacCune

Political Consultant (Ret.?)

Licensed Alpaca Broker

Phrenologist (Blue Belt)

I admit that my connection to Howard County is attenuated. So when the proprietor of Spartan Considerations asked me to pen a Guest Column, my first question was, how much cash on the barrelhead?  JB launched into some bullshit about the spirit of public service; which I knew meant the “thrifty” bastard wasn’t going to part with Dime One.  After reminding me how many times he picked me up from various Eastern Seaboard airports over the years (as if I can drive my Alfa across the Atlantic), I generously agreed to volunteer my talents for this assignment.      

Although I taught JB everything he knew, or could hope to know, I did have two more questions before I could write this piece:  Who are these people and can I write as I talk?  On the former, he gave me the low-down, on the latter, he said “sparingly.”  Fucking A right. 

So, here is my learned perspective on the County Executive race, which I guess is what passes for hot action in certain [square] circles.  Soak it in.  Soak it ALL in.

Incumbent:  Allan Kittleman.  Look, my read is that Gov. Hogan may not run for re-election, in which case AK (Note: do they call him AK?) looks like a decent gubernatorial candidate.  Moderate in personality if not in policy or appointments, he profiles well for a Republican seeking statewide office in Maryland…and by 2018, what’s left of the Establishment Republican Party might be looking hard at folks like AK to keep the hordes from burning down the rest of the barn.  But let’s say he runs for re-election, he starts with a 42% base in a bad GOP cycle and 45% in a good one.  Given his history, he is unlikely to lose in a blow-out but national trends and unforced errors could send him packing after one term.

Possible Challengers (those receiving the most mentions)

Dr. Calvin Ball. Second Council District.   Democrat.  Well-known, well-liked, and well-respected Council Member.  Big on financial literacy (Note: with Education as the most salient issue in HoCo by a country mile, how important is the financial literacy point of differentiation within the larger Jobs/Economy matrix?).  Former community organizer.  Represents a large chunk of Columbia.  Also an educator (See earlier note re: education).   From what I hear, he’s held the “presumptive frontrunner” slot since mid-November of ’14.  There was no primary last time around for CE.  Will that hold a second time around?  I would be skeptical.

Mary Kay Sigaty.  Fourth Council District.  Democrat.  West Columbia + some parts South.  Has emerged as a big Downtown Development advocate over the course of her tenure on the Council. Faced challenges from Slower Growth advocates in her backyard.   Visible on TIF funding to grow downtown Columbia even further (note:  I wasn’t aware the area by the Columbia Mall was blighted, did a dumpster overflow once?).  Qualified for CE? Sure.  Rationale for her candidacy yet?  Not so much from what I hear.

Bill Woodcock.  Oakland Mills. Democrat.  Long-time activist in Democratic party politics? Check.  Knows public policy and how government services are administered? Check.  Willing to take the fight to the GOP nominee and make a case for a progressive governing vision?  Check.  An outsider choice?  Apparently. 

Other Potentials…(not mentioned as often, but the names pop up…)

Jen Terrasa.  Third Council District.  Democrat.  Southern/Eastern HoCo.  High profile in recent months with a differing take on the need for TIF funding for Downtown Columbia.  JB passed along some speculation about JT possibly being Annapolis-bound at some point.  Who knows. 

Note: no wonder why JB writes less these days.  Almost 600 words in.  I am parched for lack of Aberlour.  

Courtney Watson.  Former First District Council Member, former Board of Education Member.  Standard-bearer for the Democratic Party in ’14 as the CE nominee.  Ran into a buzz-fucking-saw of an election year.  Would have won in 8 out of 10 election cycles.  Retains high Name ID.  Serious policy wonk.  Does she want a re-match? 

Delegate Clarence (the Doc) Lam.  Conventional Wisdom is that Annapolis is a better fit…although not necessarily the House of Delegates. According to observers, look for a shake-up in the D12 Slate for ’18.

Ken Ulman.  Former CE.  Might be a loophole allowing him to seek a third term.  US Grant thought about it, Teddy Roosevelt wanted to, as did Woodrow Wilson.  Didn’t work out for them, and some think it might be tough sledding for Ulman if he went down the Comeback Lane.

Tom Coale.  Attorney.  Ellicott City booster.  Whispers but the smart money is on a big PASS for Coale in ’18.  Maybe Annapolis down the road or a County office in a future cycle.

So all of this is third hand anyway.  Speculation and musings from Maryland’s Heartland. 

Let’s see who reads this far.  What does JB write? “Stay tuned as….” Screw it, who wants an alpaca?  They make great pets.  They eat Combos, no muss, no fuss. Email me. Let’s make some moves.         

A Preliminary (?) Report Card

While the situation in Baltimore remains fluid, a quick review of the performances (to date) of some of the key political figures involved is in order:

Mayor of Baltimore Stephanie Rawlings-Blake:  From a communications standpoint, some of her initial remarks (her comments on “space” as well as her use of the term “thugs”) were ill-phrased (or misinterpreted, depending on one’s perspective).  Her prior veto of a body camera bill seems to have been a governance misstep.  However, as of this writing, she has demonstrated considerable steadiness in the face of a perilous situation.  If she were another politician, she would be lauded for being a “calm, cool, and collected” leader.  However, she is not another politician.  Respected in many quarters, excoriated in several others, and beloved in perhaps a few…she might be the best person Baltimore could have had as Mayor during this crisis.  Depending on how it turns out, she will probably not receive the credit she deserves for resolving it.  Overall grade at this moment:  Solid B.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.  Again, there were some early miscues.  He was having a difficult time striking the proper balance between compassion for others and adopting a hardline “law and order” stance.  He possessed the proverbial dear-in-the-headlights look during his initial press conference, which was less than confidence-inspiring.  He was decisive when he signed the executive order to deploy the National Guard; but he should have resisted the urge to remark how he wished that the Mayor (a potential 2018 opponent) asked for the action sooner.  One wonders how he will address the root causes of the troubles in Baltimore, and other cities, in the days, weeks, and months ahead.  That said, he appears to be collaborating well with local officials and engaging in genuine dialogues with community leaders and others.  Overall grade at this moment:  B.

Congressman Elijah Cummings.  While Rawlings-Blake and Hogan are executives, Cummings is a legislator, which gives him a different set of official duties and responsibilities.  This is both limiting but also liberating.  This allows him to focus on exercising his moral leadership, speaking in the churches and on the streets to call for the justice that will lead to the restoration of peace.  Frankly, he has done an impressive job.  Being out there amongst the people – to an extent that some public figures were unable and/or unwilling to do – has made a positive difference.  Moreover, he has the gravitas to raise the debate; making it about an exploration of American values and the policies and behaviors that stem from them (the role of police in our society, how the legal system treats all of our citizens, etc…).  He says he is in his twilight days, but he is showing his mettle.  Putting on my political commentator hat, I would go as far to say that his recent words and deeds reveal someone who would be a fine U.S. Senator.   Overall grade at this moment:  A-.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.