Pocketbook Abattoir

Quick thoughts on the fundraising numbers. 

Normally, the release of the campaign finance data results in a couple of candidates pondering how to exit the room most gracefully.  This time around, it is challenging to see who is in clear mortal peril.  Let’s start at the top and focus on surprises:

Governor’s Race: Baker and Kamenetz both clear $1.0M raised in the reporting period (2017), but the latter leads the former in the critically important Cash on Hand category by a sizable margin ($2.0M to $696K.  Note – all figures are from my hand-scrawled notes. Second note – loans are important to acknowledge as distinguishing between financial backing expressed through contributions vs. self-financing is one, albeit just one, indicator of “public” support.  However, money spends like money so I am not breaking out loan data here.

So Shea has $1.3M Cash on Hand. Big deal.  Show me his constituency.  He – like Ross – will probably have to rely on a “well, if we finish in second place everywhere, we have a shot at this” strategy.  Between the two, I think Ross is better situated to execute such a maneuver, and even then, he is unlikely to pull it off.  Unless Shea starts distinguishing himself on Issues (yes, I will get to Madaleno soon), I don’t know where his campaign goes.  Just another well-funded vanity exercise?  Possibly. An audition for the LG slot?  Perhaps.

Jealous pulled in $1.25M in 2017, more than Baker and Kamenetz, it should be noted.  But he started from $0 and he had a relatively high burn rate, so he is showing just shy of $400K.  His union and progressive support and ability to garner paid media attention still make him a serious force.  He needs to consolidate the left though (fine, Rich, give me one second).

Sen. Madaleno strikes me as similar to a thoughtful, left-of-center Michigan politico named Lynn Jondahl.   Jondahl was a respected figure in Michigan politics for decades, a long-time member of the state House of Representatives (a Delegate in Maryland verbiage).  He ran for Governor in 1994 and he finished 4^th in the Democratic primary with around 10% of the vote.  Madaleno has only $193K CoH, but I anticipate he will continue to make some noise in Annapolis through policy proposals (like the $15 minimum wage bill he is introducing with Delegate Hettleman).  Probably just visible enough to appeal to good-government, media and policy-attentive progressives.  Can he build a constituency large enough to capture a plurality in Montgomery County? Maybe.  Could he finish in the top 3 in neighboring Howard County? Conceivably.  This author – who has not yet selected a favorite – believes that Madaleno would be a very good Governor, but I am not seeing an easy path to the Democratic nomination for the Senator.

Krish Vignarajah, whose website can be found here: http://krishformaryland.com/, had a better than expected showing.  I fell asleep before her numbers were posted. I woke up expecting her to have a CoH figure around Madaleno’s and definitely south of Jealous.  $405 CoH, with a very frugal burn rate (only $25K in expenditures compared to $431K raised) is not bad at all.  With these numbers, her campaign clears the threshold of “serious.” In a low turnout primary, a woman who is a policy wonk with sufficient money in the bank can be well-positioned to make a move…particularly going into the televised debate season and especially if folks like Baker and Kamenetz start going after each other.  Can Vignarajah pull off a Feingold ’92?  I don’t see why she couldn’t.  

I will focus on other state and local races shortly.  Back to work.

In solidarity.  

Gov Talk

The present author has been making an effort to re-engage with some political folks recently.  I honestly don’t know if this site will feature the wall-to-ceiling-to-cold attic coverage that was the case with Campaign ’14: The Search for Spock. That said, I figure my readership would like some trenchant insights on such matters, so here goes:

I spoke with Krish Vignarajah for about 10 minutes a few days back.  I found her to be smart, engaging, and not put off by my idiosyncratic candor.  I let her know that I listened to her appearance on Howard County’s finest café-based podcast, Elevate Maryland, and I had some questions regarding one attribute of her campaign’s positioning (consensus-oriented).  Her rationale was thoughtful and (wearing my former operative flat cap) I can’t deny the strategic soundness of it.  That said, for my tastes, I prefer a bit of a harder progressive/populist edge in terms of rhetoric and platform elements.

Of course, the candidate whose positioning is most likely closest to my own, Ben Jealous, has not yet won me over.  I have to say that his MD-Care plan is an excellent proposal; one that would bring universal care to the residents of the Old Line State. I’m just not sold on the Jealous/Turnbull ticket which, considering the ideological and organizational overlap (Sanders supporter, member of Our Revolution, lifetime member NAACP, etc…) seems odd.  Is it him? Me?  Both? Neither?

I tend to favor Electeds, which amounts to a lack of a checkmark for both of the aforementioned candidates for Governor, as well as some others. 

That said, as of his writing, it is unlikely that I would vote for the two County Executives currently in the race.  I don’t know if Kevin Kamenetz offers the best contrast against Governor Hogan.   Rushern Baker has a fine record of accomplishment but, like warm oatmeal, his campaign lacks a certain excitement.  I suppose demonstrated managerial competence alone is worth something, but it didn’t work for Dukakis in ’88.  But Baker is not alone there, as Ms. Vignarajah has also had management responsibilities for billion-dollar budgets.

So, as I told Krish (ok, that is striking my ear is too familiar…Ms. Vignarajah it is), she is in my top tier for consideration: a club consisting of herself, Senator Rich Madaleno (progressive, a policy wonk, an Elected, and I used to live in his district), Dr. Maya Rockeymoore Cummings (good credentials), and Mr. Jealous.

In any event, I can’t see myself backing anyone until after the February 27 filing deadline.  But who knows?  Perhaps I will make up my mind over the Holidays, when I have more time to reflect on life beyond work and my classes.

For those with time, this video of Ms. Vignarajah delivering a commencement speech is worth checking out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Dy2Yecd0PM

In solidarity.

Annapolis Quest: New 2018 MD Gov Poll - a Dissection

From the Desk of S. MacCune: Amateur Harbor Master

A new poll was released regarding the 2018 Maryland Gubernatorial contest – a proverbial “snapshot” of a race which is simultaneously embryonic yet well underway.   Information can be found here:

https://marylandmattersblog.wordpress.com/2017/05/22/poll-shows-gansler-faring-better-against-hogan-than-other-dems/

Now, the regular author of this blog, being a former political pollster (and God knows he doesn’t keep that a secret) is generally loathe to discuss the work of other pollsters.  Any criticisms, well-founded or otherwise, tend to come across as 2000s-era Gore Vidal-esque sneering.  Which is why he asked me to use my fresh yet bleary eyes to cover this critical non-story.  Which is an awesome use of my precious time.  

I know Mr. Considerations leans in the direction of Mr. Jealous, Sen. Madaleno, or Del. McIntosh (with the former two being the most likely to be on the June 2018 primary election ballot as candidates for Governor).  Obviously, my unfettered neutrality is precisely what this blog needs. 

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever): Study Design & Methodology

•      The Sample Size/Margin of Error (as noted in the story)
•    The Sample Composition (by Party ID, etc…)
•    The Sample Selection Process (RDD, Voter lists, etc…)
•    The Data Collection Methodology (telephone (live interviewer), telephone (no live interviewer, IVR, etc…), online, etc…)

What we don’t know about this survey (yet or possibly ever):  Findings

•     Intensity of Feeling on the Favorable/Unfavorable ratings (Strong/Somewhat)
•      Gradations on the ballot tests (definitely/probably/lean)
•      If the ballot tests released are initial/cold ballot tests…or if those numbers followed batteries of questions about the actual/prospective candidates.

What I found interesting is that Gansler, considering his statewide profile, was not *that* much better known compared to some of his likely rivals for the Democratic nomination. 

Does he lead the D field? Sure, just like Ted Kennedy did in early ’84 match-ups for President (he didn’t run that cycle), Joe Lieberman in early ’04 surveys (he ran but finished poorly), and Rudy Giuliani (on the R side) in early ’08 surveys (see note on Lieberman).   It’s a Name ID advantage but it is far from insurmountable.

Among registered D’s, Gansler’s Name ID is +16 over the next closest individual tested (Jealous) but his Favorability rating is only 11 points higher, while his Unfavs are 5 points higher than Jealous.  His Fav/Unfav ratio is just about 5:1, which is decent, but Jealous is at 7:1 Fav/Unfav, while Delaney is @ 10:1 (Baker and Kamenetz are both in the 3:1/4:1 range).

On the ballot test, Gansler at -9 is right around where a Generic D places against Hogan (-10).  Assuming a Margin of Error in the +/- 5% zone, at the 95% level of confidence, Delaney (-13), Baker (-14), Kamenetz (-15), and Jealous (-16) are all within striking distance of Gansler. 

Now, if Gansler were up, tied, or in the low single digits behind Hogan, that would be news.  But he is - at most- only slightly ahead of the peloton.  And most of the course is ahead of the field.

Stay tuned as, etc…

Maryland Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Survey Results – April Fool-Free Zone

Disclaimers first:  this was a “fun” poll…it is not based on proportionate-to-probability sampling of the likely electorate.  The findings are not projectable.  Most of the study respondents are probably highly informed/politically engaged individuals who reside in the Greater Howard County Metropolitan Region.  The data collection mechanism was via social media platforms, with my Facebook friends and Twitter followers constituting all, or almost all, of the study participants.  The total N was 40, about the size of 4 or 5 standard focus groups.

With all of the above in mind, that doesn’t mean there weren’t some interesting results…

Question: Looking ahead to the 2018 Maryland Democratic Primary Election for Governor, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

1)    Total number of votes won by Rushern Baker, John Delaney, Kevin Kamenetz, and Dutch Ruppersberger combined?  Zero.  Analysis:  I would have expected at least a smattering of votes for the two County Execs and the two Congressmen, primarily the former three. 

2)    So who “won?”  Former County Executive and LG nominee Ken Ulman (20%).  Analysis:  I intentionally kept this a one question survey, so I didn’t ask where the respondents resided. So, I can’t run crosstabs by such demographics.  That said, this outcome is not surprising.  That also said, it is clear that there is no overwhelming front-runner in this still-evolving and largely “invisible primary.”

3)    Most interesting outcomes:  The strength of Delegate Maggie McIntosh (15%), Senator Rich Madaleno (12.5%), and former president and CEO of the NAACP Ben Jealous (10%).  Analysis:  it stands to reason that the progressive wing of the party has been energized following the 2016 election results and that such candidates would fare well in these early ballot tests.  Full disclosure: my current “favorite(s)” can be found on this short list.

4)    Mild surprise.  Former MD AG Doug Gansler (7.5%).  Analysis: this has to be driven in large measure by Name ID.  Where precisely is the Gansler constituency in today’s Maryland Democratic Party? 

5)    Receiving two votes:  Congressman John Sarbanes (5%).  Analysis: good political name, decent visibility, has sort of a “goo-goo” issue profile among the cognoscenti. Not certain if I see him as the best option to take on Hogan in 2018…but apparently at least two people do.   

6)    One-voters: Current Delegate and former Congressional candidate Joseline Pena-Melnyk and “technology executive and author” Alec Ross (2.5% apiece).  Analysis: it should be noted that one of the write-ins was “anyone but Joseline Pena-Melynk.”  Ouch.  Ross, on paper and as of this writing, profiles as a different sort of candidate…and if he can raise enough $, he could finish in the top three in a primary…with 15% of the vote.  

7)    There were a total of 10 write-ins (25%).  Analysis: normally, I would attribute this relatively high figure to a design flaw in the questionnaire.  But then I saw the names and realized several people were doing wish lists (again, a manifestation of their dissatisfaction with The Establishment, such as it is), some were undecided, and a couple of respondents were just having fun.  There were four serious names, all receiving one vote apiece:  AG Brian Frosh (2.5%), former Congresswoman and U.S. Senate candidate Donna Edwards (2.5%), former Delegate and candidate for Governor Heather Mizeur (2.5%), and Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner (2.5%).  I voted for three of those four candidates in recent cycles, all fine choices. I already mentioned one of the “other” write-ins…which leaves two other names, neither of which I will report here, one “none of the above,” one “undecided,” and one “sigh.”

8)    Oh yes, influential attorney and former chairman of the University of Maryland Board of Regents James Shea, zero votes.  Analysis: welcome to dark-horse country! Hope the exploration is going well.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

MoCo – PG Shenanigans

I received the following telegram from a “Ma Kish” in Maple Lawn: “I see all of this automobile traffic on U.S. 29. So what is happening south of Exit 13?”

Excellent question Ms. Kish. 

Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker endorsed Congressman Chris Van Hollen for the U.S. Senate today. 

The Official Wisdom is that this is a “bad day for Donna Edwards.”  In terms of expectations, I am not particularly surprised by the endorsement.  Moreover, I don’t know if Mr. Baker’s backing carries with it that many votes.   Favorability transfer is a tricky thing to operationalize.  Moreover, Baker’s support for a 15% property tax hike is tapping into his reservoir of goodwill.

Beyond that, Heather Mizeur announced this afternoon that she would take a pass on the Senate race.  This opens up some space on the non-establishment left, which should be good news for Congresswoman Edwards. 

Beyond beyond that, this field remains – and feels – unsettled.  I am re-reading Peter Goodman and Tony Fuller’s “The Quest for the Presidency 1984” and I am concerned that Team Van Hollen is running a latter-day version of the Mondale campaign:  putting organization and D.C. experience at the heart of the campaign’s raison d’etre rather than articulating a broader vision for America in general and Maryland specifically.  

Stay tuned, as more will follow.