Pocketbook Abattoir

Quick thoughts on the fundraising numbers. 

Normally, the release of the campaign finance data results in a couple of candidates pondering how to exit the room most gracefully.  This time around, it is challenging to see who is in clear mortal peril.  Let’s start at the top and focus on surprises:

Governor’s Race: Baker and Kamenetz both clear $1.0M raised in the reporting period (2017), but the latter leads the former in the critically important Cash on Hand category by a sizable margin ($2.0M to $696K.  Note – all figures are from my hand-scrawled notes. Second note – loans are important to acknowledge as distinguishing between financial backing expressed through contributions vs. self-financing is one, albeit just one, indicator of “public” support.  However, money spends like money so I am not breaking out loan data here.

So Shea has $1.3M Cash on Hand. Big deal.  Show me his constituency.  He – like Ross – will probably have to rely on a “well, if we finish in second place everywhere, we have a shot at this” strategy.  Between the two, I think Ross is better situated to execute such a maneuver, and even then, he is unlikely to pull it off.  Unless Shea starts distinguishing himself on Issues (yes, I will get to Madaleno soon), I don’t know where his campaign goes.  Just another well-funded vanity exercise?  Possibly. An audition for the LG slot?  Perhaps.

Jealous pulled in $1.25M in 2017, more than Baker and Kamenetz, it should be noted.  But he started from $0 and he had a relatively high burn rate, so he is showing just shy of $400K.  His union and progressive support and ability to garner paid media attention still make him a serious force.  He needs to consolidate the left though (fine, Rich, give me one second).

Sen. Madaleno strikes me as similar to a thoughtful, left-of-center Michigan politico named Lynn Jondahl.   Jondahl was a respected figure in Michigan politics for decades, a long-time member of the state House of Representatives (a Delegate in Maryland verbiage).  He ran for Governor in 1994 and he finished 4^th in the Democratic primary with around 10% of the vote.  Madaleno has only $193K CoH, but I anticipate he will continue to make some noise in Annapolis through policy proposals (like the $15 minimum wage bill he is introducing with Delegate Hettleman).  Probably just visible enough to appeal to good-government, media and policy-attentive progressives.  Can he build a constituency large enough to capture a plurality in Montgomery County? Maybe.  Could he finish in the top 3 in neighboring Howard County? Conceivably.  This author – who has not yet selected a favorite – believes that Madaleno would be a very good Governor, but I am not seeing an easy path to the Democratic nomination for the Senator.

Krish Vignarajah, whose website can be found here: http://krishformaryland.com/, had a better than expected showing.  I fell asleep before her numbers were posted. I woke up expecting her to have a CoH figure around Madaleno’s and definitely south of Jealous.  $405 CoH, with a very frugal burn rate (only $25K in expenditures compared to $431K raised) is not bad at all.  With these numbers, her campaign clears the threshold of “serious.” In a low turnout primary, a woman who is a policy wonk with sufficient money in the bank can be well-positioned to make a move…particularly going into the televised debate season and especially if folks like Baker and Kamenetz start going after each other.  Can Vignarajah pull off a Feingold ’92?  I don’t see why she couldn’t.  

I will focus on other state and local races shortly.  Back to work.

In solidarity.  

And in Local News

First, a quick word about Delegate Frank Turner (D-13), who recently announced his intention to not seek re-election to Maryland’s General Assembly in 2018.

Back in 2011, I wrote a couple of op-eds in support of two year terms for the House of Delegates that were published in some local papers.  Two can be found here and here.

  

As part of my lobbying efforts, I contacted dozens of state legislators, including Delegate Turner.  We spoke on the phone for perhaps 20 minutes or so.  While my reasoning was clearly impeccable and my position unassailable from a good governance point of view, he, like many others in the Assembly, had a differing perspective.  That said, he was very generous with his time, he defended his stance capably, and he offered up a suggestion or two that demonstrated both his attentiveness to my concerns as well as his thoughtful reflections on the matter.  While I could not sway him (or many of his colleagues), I respected how he handled the issue.  He was, and is, a serious player.  District 13 will lose his voice in Annapolis, which is why…moving to the second point of today’s post…

I was elated to read that Howard County Councilperson Jen Terrasa will be entering the race for the now-open seat.  She would be an excellent Delegate and an effective advocate for Howard County interests.  She showed true mettle in the recent tax increment financing (TIF) debate where she demonstrated her commitment to putting “people over profits” if you don’t mind the old chestnut.

Finally, Maya Rockeymoore Cummings, citing “personal considerations,” “suspended” (read: ended) her campaign for Governor.  A pity.  I would have liked to have seen what an MRC candidacy firing on all cylinders might have accomplished. She attracted some institutional support (from Emily’s List, most notably) and I believe she would have emerged as a top-flight contender.  As it is, she would be an extremely formidable congressional candidate.  Just saying.  So now I am down to three gubernatorial possibilities:  Jealous, Madaleno, and Vignarajah (in alphabetical order, for those who wonder about such things). 

Which reminds me, no thanks Mr. Shea. I am not interested in the LG spot on your ticket.  But there is someone you can call, as long as you do it collect, his name is Slats MacCune…

In solidarity.

Gov Talk

The present author has been making an effort to re-engage with some political folks recently.  I honestly don’t know if this site will feature the wall-to-ceiling-to-cold attic coverage that was the case with Campaign ’14: The Search for Spock. That said, I figure my readership would like some trenchant insights on such matters, so here goes:

I spoke with Krish Vignarajah for about 10 minutes a few days back.  I found her to be smart, engaging, and not put off by my idiosyncratic candor.  I let her know that I listened to her appearance on Howard County’s finest café-based podcast, Elevate Maryland, and I had some questions regarding one attribute of her campaign’s positioning (consensus-oriented).  Her rationale was thoughtful and (wearing my former operative flat cap) I can’t deny the strategic soundness of it.  That said, for my tastes, I prefer a bit of a harder progressive/populist edge in terms of rhetoric and platform elements.

Of course, the candidate whose positioning is most likely closest to my own, Ben Jealous, has not yet won me over.  I have to say that his MD-Care plan is an excellent proposal; one that would bring universal care to the residents of the Old Line State. I’m just not sold on the Jealous/Turnbull ticket which, considering the ideological and organizational overlap (Sanders supporter, member of Our Revolution, lifetime member NAACP, etc…) seems odd.  Is it him? Me?  Both? Neither?

I tend to favor Electeds, which amounts to a lack of a checkmark for both of the aforementioned candidates for Governor, as well as some others. 

That said, as of his writing, it is unlikely that I would vote for the two County Executives currently in the race.  I don’t know if Kevin Kamenetz offers the best contrast against Governor Hogan.   Rushern Baker has a fine record of accomplishment but, like warm oatmeal, his campaign lacks a certain excitement.  I suppose demonstrated managerial competence alone is worth something, but it didn’t work for Dukakis in ’88.  But Baker is not alone there, as Ms. Vignarajah has also had management responsibilities for billion-dollar budgets.

So, as I told Krish (ok, that is striking my ear is too familiar…Ms. Vignarajah it is), she is in my top tier for consideration: a club consisting of herself, Senator Rich Madaleno (progressive, a policy wonk, an Elected, and I used to live in his district), Dr. Maya Rockeymoore Cummings (good credentials), and Mr. Jealous.

In any event, I can’t see myself backing anyone until after the February 27 filing deadline.  But who knows?  Perhaps I will make up my mind over the Holidays, when I have more time to reflect on life beyond work and my classes.

For those with time, this video of Ms. Vignarajah delivering a commencement speech is worth checking out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Dy2Yecd0PM

In solidarity.