Pandemonium-upon-Stilts

That sums up the past several months.  There is no doubt a book there, but binding Confidentiality Agreements most likely make that a non-starter.  

I have just enough time to offer up some brief thoughts on the likely contours of the 2016 GOP presidential campaign.    

The campaigns most likely to fold up their tents between now and Iowa:  With 15 heavies remaining (sorry Mark Everson), I believe that Senator Rand Paul (R/Lib – Au) and former Governor Jim Gilmore (R – No VA Car Tax!) are the most likely to quit the field between now and February 1, 2016 Iowa caucuses.  The latter might stick around until New Hampshire as his, let’s call it, “strategy” appears more focused on the Granite State.  That said, he might realize that a top 10 showing is not in the cards, and quietly withdraw at some point during the Holiday Season.  The former may decide to focus on his U.S. Senate seat, so keep a close eye on his early-state polling performances in November and December. If he can’t consistently cross the five percent threshold in the weeks prior to Iowa, expect a retreat to Kentucky.  One more to watch:  Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, wonk-turned-red meat hurler, the former Bayou Wunderkind needs to break out of the second tier.  He selected Iowa as the state that gives him just enough of a push to get past the carve-out states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada).  Unfortunately, for Gov. Jindal, he is facing off against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX/The Second Choice), former Governor Mike Huckabee, Former Senator Rick Santorum, and Dr. Ben Carson for the social conservative vote. 

The campaigns most likely to be done after Iowa:  Jindal if he even makes it to February 1.  I believe that Santorum will lose in the Clash of the Most Recent Iowa Victors Match-up, with Huckabee being the better positioned of the two to do anything in South Carolina.  Santorum will wrap up his campaign on Groundhog Day.  Just in time for him to head home to check on Punxsutawney Phil.

The campaigns most likely to be finished after New Hampshire:  Gilmore if he is still in the race.  Former New York Governor George Pataki will likely receive his last hurrah of the primary season in NH.  Either former Governor Chris Christie or Governor John Kasich will be on life-support or decently positioned as the Bush/Rubio alternative after New Hampshire.  Senator Lindsey Graham may opt for a strategic withdrawal and endorsement of another hawk prior to his home-state primary.

So who is a lock to be an active candidate for the South Carolina primary?  Former Governor Jeb Bush, Carson, Cruz, business executive Carly Fiorina, probably Huckabee, either Christie or Kasich, Senator Marco Rubio, and businessman Donald Trump.

What about March?  I think the short-term calendar shapes up nicely for Cruz.  I expect a Huckabee exit as well as a slow Carson (and slower Trump) fade (all to the benefit of Cruz) and that Bush will struggle. 

Beyond that, I think Cruz and Rubio are well situated to go deep.  Trump and Carson could accrue a significant number of delegates, with Fiorina performing well enough to warrant serious consideration as a VP pick.  If this were a Democratic primary, I would give Kasich better odds as a dark-horse candidate.  As it is not, I think he might emerge as the primary Establishment alternative to Rubio, but will have neither the resources nor the skills to compete with either Senator Cruz or Senator Rubio.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.  

Future: Override

So the veto came, to the shock of none.

Assuming the four Council-members hold the line and no one "evolves" (or "flip-flops," depending on your point-of-view) on the issue, the Howard County Council appears set to override County Executive Kittleman's veto of the Nutritional Standards bill later on this month.

Policy considerations aside (although I tend to favor the compromise bill that the Council developed), I've gone back and forth on the wisdom of Kittleman's move from a political perspective. Ultimately, i think he is making a mistake.  But is it a good or bad kind of mistake for him?

I listened to his rationale for his veto, which can be found here, frankly it sounded like a boilerplate GOP play - perhaps principled but a little tired, mostly uninspiring and a bit platitudinous.  Yet another variation on "Get the government out of our lives! (except on the following 50 issues but let's not discuss those right now)."

So his veto helps him with his HoCo base, although I am not sure he needed that (or is he fearing a contested primary in 2018?!).  Perhaps he thinks a more confrontational posture will help him in future negotiations with the Council on other issues.  He has demonstrated that he can throw an elbow, OK..so what comes next?  Maybe he is looking at his future and sees a shift to the right as necessary if he wants to hold a political office that represents more than Howard County.  Does that mean the end of "Mr. Nice Guy?"  Perhaps the Kittleman brand is going to take another turn.  Maybe "Mr. No!"  That doesn't exactly radiate the sort of optimism one might expect from a "different kind of Republican." Let me use more "quote" marks.

Bottom line in this hastily written post - this is probably smart politics for Kittleman over the long-haul, assuming he has aspirations that require being nominated by a Republican party that is drifting ever right-ward.  But it is bad policymaking.  Moreover, he better get ready for life after the override because there is a fine line between "principled" and "ineffectual" - especially if he finds himself standing alone (or only with Mr. Fox) one too many times. There is a Howard County mainstream and right now, he is squarely to the right of it.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Orchestral Manoeuvres in Nu Shooz

And it was June 1986. Da Nang.  No, wait.  It was definitely Lapeer, Michigan. We would walk to the convenience store.  At the base of the Thumb, we called them party stores.  Sometimes, I would carry a small bag of carrots so I could stop along the way and feed Mindy.  Mindy was a horse.  She lived on a small farm just off the main road.  She could probably hurdle the low and increasingly incomplete fence, but she appeared satisfied with her present location.  Besides, it was abnormally hot; the air too humid and the ground too dusty for anything more strenuous than a leisurely amble.   It was 29 years away from having to worry about compliance with a corporate social media guidelines policy regarding personal blogs.  I am referring to myself, of course.  Mindy didn’t care about such things – they weren’t small, crisp, orange, and delicious.  She knew what was important.

Slats, who I hadn’t met yet, would later claim that he spent that summer gearing up for the Babbitt for President campaign.  Somehow, that involved six weeks in a rented villa ten klicks outside of Saint Tropez.  Gearing up was different in the ‘80s.  In any event, he left that effort the following year…well before the cornstalks were hip-high.  “Strategic differences,” he would mutter. 

But this is neither the time nor place for that – Michigan ’86 is.  Was? No, it is.  So that is where we should begin.

Hiram Atus: Attorney At Law

"So then it was written: 'And amongst the poodles of the Serengeti, there emerged one so majestic that he became known to all as...'"

"Hold on," cautioned Slats.  "First, I think that might be a Far Side reference.  Second, did you read this Social Media Guidelines document?"

Nodding my head emphatically, I replied, "Yes. Of course not."

"Let's see, it appears as though you need to say: 'This [posting] is the personal [commentary] of [Name] and contains my personal views and opinions only.  It is not an official communication of or endorsed by [Company To Be Named Later].'"

"So does that apply even when the opinions I express are not my own?"

"Doubly so, I would imagine," responded Slats.

"Perfect."

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

A Preliminary (?) Report Card

While the situation in Baltimore remains fluid, a quick review of the performances (to date) of some of the key political figures involved is in order:

Mayor of Baltimore Stephanie Rawlings-Blake:  From a communications standpoint, some of her initial remarks (her comments on “space” as well as her use of the term “thugs”) were ill-phrased (or misinterpreted, depending on one’s perspective).  Her prior veto of a body camera bill seems to have been a governance misstep.  However, as of this writing, she has demonstrated considerable steadiness in the face of a perilous situation.  If she were another politician, she would be lauded for being a “calm, cool, and collected” leader.  However, she is not another politician.  Respected in many quarters, excoriated in several others, and beloved in perhaps a few…she might be the best person Baltimore could have had as Mayor during this crisis.  Depending on how it turns out, she will probably not receive the credit she deserves for resolving it.  Overall grade at this moment:  Solid B.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan.  Again, there were some early miscues.  He was having a difficult time striking the proper balance between compassion for others and adopting a hardline “law and order” stance.  He possessed the proverbial dear-in-the-headlights look during his initial press conference, which was less than confidence-inspiring.  He was decisive when he signed the executive order to deploy the National Guard; but he should have resisted the urge to remark how he wished that the Mayor (a potential 2018 opponent) asked for the action sooner.  One wonders how he will address the root causes of the troubles in Baltimore, and other cities, in the days, weeks, and months ahead.  That said, he appears to be collaborating well with local officials and engaging in genuine dialogues with community leaders and others.  Overall grade at this moment:  B.

Congressman Elijah Cummings.  While Rawlings-Blake and Hogan are executives, Cummings is a legislator, which gives him a different set of official duties and responsibilities.  This is both limiting but also liberating.  This allows him to focus on exercising his moral leadership, speaking in the churches and on the streets to call for the justice that will lead to the restoration of peace.  Frankly, he has done an impressive job.  Being out there amongst the people – to an extent that some public figures were unable and/or unwilling to do – has made a positive difference.  Moreover, he has the gravitas to raise the debate; making it about an exploration of American values and the policies and behaviors that stem from them (the role of police in our society, how the legal system treats all of our citizens, etc…).  He says he is in his twilight days, but he is showing his mettle.  Putting on my political commentator hat, I would go as far to say that his recent words and deeds reveal someone who would be a fine U.S. Senator.   Overall grade at this moment:  A-.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.          

   

"Watch the Ripples Change Their Size"

Knowledge, of course, emanates from a source and can spread much as a pond ripple.  Such was the case at Patuxent Valley Middle School on Tuesday night, when three guest speakers spoke out on the topics of law enforcement safety, fire/EMT safety, and cyber/internet safety. 

Addressing a small but engaged audience, this event was part of the 2015 Parent Empowerment Academy series that is put on at the Middle School.  This particular program was co-sponsored by a local community service organization, the Continental Societies (Southeast Howard/Laurel Chapter).

The gathering, held in the school's media center, included parents, the speakers/subject matter experts, the Continentals, school staff (most notably BSAP Liaison Marcus Nicks), and Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary (MD-13).  

Those fortunate enough to attend were able to participate in timely discussions.  The school's resource officer, Officer Laurita Cofield, did an excellent job fielding questions regarding law enforcement interaction strategies, stressing the importance of mutually respectful dialogue between citizens and police officers.

Mr. Brian Proctor, MFF/NREMT - Public Relations Specialist from the Office of the Fire Marshall, Howard County Fire and Rescue, delivered an insightful presentation that included several valuable fire safety tips.  Remember - it's always good to have a pan lid handy to put out small kitchen fires.  The cabinet above the stove caught fire? That is more of a conflagration and unless you have a fire extinguisher IN HAND, it is best to leave. Quickly.

Finally, let's call him "Mr. Smith," from a Department that rhymes with Bomeland Decurity, spent a few minutes discussing privacy and Internet usage.  It was a more technical presentation on such matters as encryption but it included some common-sense reminders regarding not giving out identifying information online and that everything put online remains online, for all intents and purposes, forever.  And yes, that includes social media.  Also, Mr. Smith's children were in attendance and they put on an impromptu karate demonstration at the end of his talk.  

Overall, it was an informative program for parents and students alike.  Having the three distinct fields represented in one event was a smart concept. It would be a good idea for such a program to be replicated at other schools in Howard County, and beyond.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.
   

Yet Again, Not Again

The spirit-crushing reality is that the events in Baltimore can happen in America anywhere, at anytime. It may not be a case of eternal recurrence, but it is undoubtedly an extremely persistent one.

Recognizing that reporting on historic and structural matters (racism, poverty, alienation, the ongoing existence of at least two de facto “separate and unequal” criminal justice systems) is less visually engaging than watching folks running out of a CVS…it is unfortunate – yet also unsurprising and depressing – that some traditional media reporting resembles reality television.

Meanwhile, there are stories emerging…primarily via social media…that are offering a more complete picture of events as well as the facts and motivations behind the positive and negative actions taken today.  Baltimore residents are talking about local leaders, private citizens as well as public figures, who are urging restraint, respect and reflection…these are the words and deeds of responsible men and women.  Quiet heroism in the midst of adversity.  These are true patriots.

This author was too young to recall the so-called Detroit Riot of 1967.  Yet the circumstances that led to that event, and the destruction left behind in the aftermath, endured long after the police raided that blind pig on 12^th Street.  Twenty-five years later, the Los Angeles unrest witnessed over 50 deaths and 2,000 injuries.  Different places and times, similar causes.

It is unknown, as of this writing, if the civil disturbances in Baltimore will approach the scale and horror of Detroit ’67 or LA ’92.  Personally, I doubt if events will spiral to those depths.

We can hope for not just the restoration of order, but the enactment of a just peace.

What is known is that many of the underlying factors present at those places in those times linger within our society.  They may manifest themselves differently, but the blights remain.

Hopefully, wisdom and honesty will prevail…and we can find solutions to address these societal challenges that expose our hypocrisies and threaten our social compact.  We, as a people, can be better. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.