2020 Foresight

Happy Super Tuesday Eve!

When I first came to DC, my employer at the time had a list of "lessons learned" from Senator Phil Gramm's presidential campaign on the wall.  I wish I kept a copy of it.

So, here are some thoughts for 2020 presidential aspirants, based on the lessons learned, re-learned, and forgotten thus far in the 2016 election cycle.

1.  Define your opponents early and vigorously.  While the media historically serves a larger role here, I don't believe I have witnessed a presidential candidate as good as Donald Trump when it comes to establishing narrative frames for his opponents, with his re-positioning of Jeb! being Trump's crowning achievement in this regard (to date).  Governor Bush never recovered from the low energy tag and the characterization helped expedite the collapse of a candidacy that 1) never quite found its voice and 2) was fundamentally out of step with the resurgent populism that pervades the national mood.   Note:  Jeb should have recalled how effectively Rove et. al. were in defining Senator Kerry in 2004...when his own brother was up for re-election.  Remember swift-boating?  It went right to Kerry's perceived strength and deflated it.  Apparently Jeb forgot that lesson from 12 short years ago.

2. Exploit social media to its fullest  Again, Trump might be sui generis within the political realm given his decades-long fame/infamy in our popular culture and his understanding of how to create (and dominate) news in these early days of the 21st Century.  Future candidates should nonetheless peruse his tweets very, very carefully to see how he was able to shape conversations over the course of days, weeks, and months.  This lesson applies regardless of the milieu, Facebook, Twitter, or DodgeWaffle - whatever social media outlets exist in 2020.

3.  Don't hesitate when it comes to going on the offense.  You can't hang back and let your opponents define you, and when you attack when it is too late, it comes across as flailing from a position of weakness.  In short, don't be afraid to go "comparative" early...as long as doing so is in your best strategic interest and it doesn't subvert the candidate's brand.

4.  Establish your brand early.  To that point, you can't undergo a character transformation mid-way through a campaign.  Kasich came close though, he went from quirky, quick-tempered policy wonk to folksy, can-do Midwestern Huggin' Gov in what seemed like a fairly rapid metamorphosis.  It may not take him to March 16, but it allows him to occupy a distinct, and distinguishable, position in the present GOP field.

5. Be prepare to be flexible when it comes to strategy and tactics.  Not to pile on Jeb, but his by-the-book campaign was far too by-the-book.  They failed to adapt to meet the needs of the present environment, choosing instead to ignore the Trump ascendancy until it was far too late.  The summer poll numbers were more than sufficient to warrant a more aggressive posture toward Mr. Trump but the Bush team was too focused on running a playbook for a completely different ballgame.

6. The culture is inseparable from the political.  There is a book concept in here somewhere.  In a pop culture world obsessed with louder, vacuous and/or one-note, but media savvy individuals... is it any surprise that such figures are faring well in the US electorally?  I am not suggesting that 2020 presidential candidates should start appearing on as many reality shows as possible between now and November '20, but they need to think about the larger cultural background and factor that into their planning accordingly.

7. Don't over staff.  Walker.  Bush.  Just so much money wasted that could have been spent on voter contact.  No need for dozens of policy advisors, it's a political campaign and not a think tank.

8. Don't inflate your own expectations.  Come on Senator Rubio. The "3-2-1" approach set yourself up for failure right from the outset of the primary season. It is one of the reasons why he has not emerged as the main alternative to Trump (that and his disastrous debate meltdown, which reminded me of Muskie's crying (melting snow?!) moment...something that was so memorable and so damaging that it will not be soon forgotten).

9. Make it about "the people."  This is why Senator Sander's ads have been better than Senator Clinton's.  His paid communications tend to be more "us"-focused while Senator Clinton still spends too much time talking about how unique her candidacy is.  His are more dialogue driven while hers tend to be more monologue-oriented, and people like being talked with, not at.  I am perhaps over-stating the case for illustration purposes, but go ahead, compare the ads.  Remove the specific candidate and ask, which make me feel more of a sense of belonging?  Which are motivating?  Would Clinton be faring better if she ran Sanders-style ads?  Would Sanders be performing worse if he was running Clinton-style ads?  Something to ponder.

Feel free to save this and post it on your fridge.  The magnet can hold it for four years.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

  

Get Used To It

So I was reading Village Green/Town Squared this evening, where the author of that esteemed blog wrote about blogging and its relationship with journalism.

Now perhaps "Christine" from the comments section was playing a bit fast and loose with the lingo.  Maybe if she added the word "citizen" before "journalist" she(?) might have hit a bit closer to the mark.  Just a bissel.

That said, I don't read http://53beersontap.typepad.com/ for straight-up reporting.  I peruse it for the blend of fact, analysis, and opinion. I would imagine that most of his readership understands the nature and purpose of that blog.  I might be overestimating the level of media literacy at work among some consumers, I don't know.

I was sitting next to a current Board of Education member at a local event recently.  We were chatting, pleasantly enough, about local media content creators.  The reality is, in this era of sharply reduced traditional media resources, bloggers play a more important role when it comes to being chroniclers of our time and place. This is particularly the case in HoCo, a county-sized 'burb sandwiched between Baltimore and DC, belonging more to the former than the latter within the greater media market, yet still under-reported upon.  Despite knowing a great deal about The 53, I don't know how much time and attention this individual gives to thinking about blogging as a means of sharing news and information.

Yes, many bloggers do not undergo any formal training as journalists.  Moreover, I doubt that any of us in Howard County signed a pledge to abide by the SPJ Code of Ethics.  That said, I believe, whether intentional or not, most of us follow the general principles found within that Code.

It might be helpful for the citizenry in general, and elected officials in particular, to think about the role of blogging within our communities.  Rather than post defensive-sounding remarks in comments sections, perhaps there are other ways to engage with those of us who practice some variant of citizen journalism.  We aren't going away any time soon.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.


   

Education Reformation

Some issues simply require additional time for sober reflection.

When Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary and Councilman Jon Weinstein announced their collaboration on a bill that would turn the “all at large” seven member Howard County Board of Education into a body that would feature five district and two at-large seats, my visceral response was that it sounded like a smart reform measure. 

But distracted by all of the glitz and glam that the Metro Center area has to offer, I found myself lacking the time to give an appropriate level of thought to the proposal. 

Two months later, I think their bill makes a great deal of sense.  First, it promotes awareness and accountability.  Having one person serving as one’s district-based Board of Education member, along with two at-large members for everyone, makes it easier for people to get to know their school board member.  It makes individual advocacy efforts by parents, students, and other stakeholders easier.  Have an issue with a school in, for example, Elkridge? If the Atterbeary/Weinstein (Weinstein/Atterbeary?) legislation were to be enacted, a neighborhood-based board member becomes the logical point of contact.  This should also promote geographic diversity among the board membership and, hopefully, a greater familiarity with the unique opportunities and challenges facing all of the schools across our growing County.

Frankly, the same rationale applies to shifting from multi-member state delegate districts to single-member districts, but I will revisit that issue on another day.

Back to my main point, there are many entities that exercise policy-making functions whereby the individual members are elected by a smaller constituency to represent a larger interest.  This is how every state legislature works.  This is how Congress works.  This is how our County Council works. [Note: an earlier version of this post incorrectly cited MoCo's BoE as an example here.  Are there elected Boards of Education with similar arrangements? I am going to go with almost certainly.  Do I have time to look them up? No, but feel free to do so]. [Second note: thinking about local examples, I believe that at least some of the Harford County Board of Education seats are district-based.  I think they have a hybrid that includes elected and appointed as well as at-large and district board members.  Again, you may want to check on that.].

My contention is this: the partial reorganization of the Howard County Board of Education would not invite an epoch of rampant provincialism.   Everyone who holds the office would know that their duty is to act in the best interests of the County as a whole.  Moreover, as is frequently pointed out, majorities are required for the Board to act.  Thus, it is difficult to make a compelling argument that having multiple district-based seats would lead to a “less equitable” distribution of resources anymore than saying that the current arrangement, with representation from only three of the five Council Districts, leads to such inequities.  

Bottom line:  as a measure designed to promote the connection between the public and the policy-setting body, the Atterbeary-Weinstein plan is the right move for Howard County’s public education system.  If you haven’t already, let your elected representatives know.  Tell ‘em Sparty sent you.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

On Poverty, Progress, and the CAC

There has been much discussion in recent days on the fundamental question, “What does it mean to be American?” 

Personally, I believe one hallmark of the American character is a certain generosity of spirit that stems from a recognition that we are all imperfect yet we want to improve not only our lot, but the well-being of those we call our neighbors.

Those of us in Howard County are fortunate insofar as many of our neighbors, from a pocketbook perspective, are not struggling.   But “many” is not all, and when it comes to poverty, some is too many.

Hunger is non-partisan, as is poverty.  The eradication of both, in a county of plenty, can and should be a top-of-mind issue, and goal, for 2016. 

In terms of numbers, 5.3% of Howard County’s population live in poverty, this translates to thousands of our fellow denizens.  Moreover, almost one in four (22.5%) single women who are the head of their household and who have children under five live below the poverty line.

As careful readers will recall from early 2015, before my new position brought me to the functional equivalent of a literary Elba, I wanted to spend more time talking about organizations doing good and important work in our communities.  With that, along with the aforementioned challenges foremost in mind, I want to spend a minute talking about the Community Action Council of Howard County (http://www.cac-hc.org/get-involved/).  

Feel free to click on that link.  I can wait a moment... 

Back?  Excellent.  The Community Action Council (CAC for short) has been on the frontlines of “helping people help themselves” as their President, Bita Dayhoff, describes in a letter outlining the mission of the organization.  This is key.  The CAC is focused not only on helping out those most in need of help, in terms of such needs as housing, energy, childhood education, and food, but also assisting them on the road to self-sufficiency.  And this is not a seasonal focus, but one that is addressed “24/7/365” as the saying goes.  Moreover, they help literally thousands of people, every single year.

The spectrum of services offered by the Community Action Council is broad yet bound by the common thread of helping those of us who are in a tough spot.  The dedication of this organization, their staff, volunteers, and partners, deserves recognition.  Beyond that, the questions must be raised, what systems can be put into place to help groups like the CAC achieve their mission?  What can be done, by the private and public sectors alike, to help ensure that all of our neighbors have full access to the promise of Howard County?

As long as poverty and hunger (and related issues) afflict our fellow residents, I plan on revisiting these topics throughout the New Year. I am hopeful that our collective can-do spirit, another American hallmark, will help yield creative and practical solutions to these challenges.  By building on the work of groups like the Community Action Council, I am optimistic that we can find novel ways to help our neighbors.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Pandemonium-upon-Stilts

That sums up the past several months.  There is no doubt a book there, but binding Confidentiality Agreements most likely make that a non-starter.  

I have just enough time to offer up some brief thoughts on the likely contours of the 2016 GOP presidential campaign.    

The campaigns most likely to fold up their tents between now and Iowa:  With 15 heavies remaining (sorry Mark Everson), I believe that Senator Rand Paul (R/Lib – Au) and former Governor Jim Gilmore (R – No VA Car Tax!) are the most likely to quit the field between now and February 1, 2016 Iowa caucuses.  The latter might stick around until New Hampshire as his, let’s call it, “strategy” appears more focused on the Granite State.  That said, he might realize that a top 10 showing is not in the cards, and quietly withdraw at some point during the Holiday Season.  The former may decide to focus on his U.S. Senate seat, so keep a close eye on his early-state polling performances in November and December. If he can’t consistently cross the five percent threshold in the weeks prior to Iowa, expect a retreat to Kentucky.  One more to watch:  Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, wonk-turned-red meat hurler, the former Bayou Wunderkind needs to break out of the second tier.  He selected Iowa as the state that gives him just enough of a push to get past the carve-out states (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada).  Unfortunately, for Gov. Jindal, he is facing off against Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX/The Second Choice), former Governor Mike Huckabee, Former Senator Rick Santorum, and Dr. Ben Carson for the social conservative vote. 

The campaigns most likely to be done after Iowa:  Jindal if he even makes it to February 1.  I believe that Santorum will lose in the Clash of the Most Recent Iowa Victors Match-up, with Huckabee being the better positioned of the two to do anything in South Carolina.  Santorum will wrap up his campaign on Groundhog Day.  Just in time for him to head home to check on Punxsutawney Phil.

The campaigns most likely to be finished after New Hampshire:  Gilmore if he is still in the race.  Former New York Governor George Pataki will likely receive his last hurrah of the primary season in NH.  Either former Governor Chris Christie or Governor John Kasich will be on life-support or decently positioned as the Bush/Rubio alternative after New Hampshire.  Senator Lindsey Graham may opt for a strategic withdrawal and endorsement of another hawk prior to his home-state primary.

So who is a lock to be an active candidate for the South Carolina primary?  Former Governor Jeb Bush, Carson, Cruz, business executive Carly Fiorina, probably Huckabee, either Christie or Kasich, Senator Marco Rubio, and businessman Donald Trump.

What about March?  I think the short-term calendar shapes up nicely for Cruz.  I expect a Huckabee exit as well as a slow Carson (and slower Trump) fade (all to the benefit of Cruz) and that Bush will struggle. 

Beyond that, I think Cruz and Rubio are well situated to go deep.  Trump and Carson could accrue a significant number of delegates, with Fiorina performing well enough to warrant serious consideration as a VP pick.  If this were a Democratic primary, I would give Kasich better odds as a dark-horse candidate.  As it is not, I think he might emerge as the primary Establishment alternative to Rubio, but will have neither the resources nor the skills to compete with either Senator Cruz or Senator Rubio.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.  

Future: Override

So the veto came, to the shock of none.

Assuming the four Council-members hold the line and no one "evolves" (or "flip-flops," depending on your point-of-view) on the issue, the Howard County Council appears set to override County Executive Kittleman's veto of the Nutritional Standards bill later on this month.

Policy considerations aside (although I tend to favor the compromise bill that the Council developed), I've gone back and forth on the wisdom of Kittleman's move from a political perspective. Ultimately, i think he is making a mistake.  But is it a good or bad kind of mistake for him?

I listened to his rationale for his veto, which can be found here, frankly it sounded like a boilerplate GOP play - perhaps principled but a little tired, mostly uninspiring and a bit platitudinous.  Yet another variation on "Get the government out of our lives! (except on the following 50 issues but let's not discuss those right now)."

So his veto helps him with his HoCo base, although I am not sure he needed that (or is he fearing a contested primary in 2018?!).  Perhaps he thinks a more confrontational posture will help him in future negotiations with the Council on other issues.  He has demonstrated that he can throw an elbow, OK..so what comes next?  Maybe he is looking at his future and sees a shift to the right as necessary if he wants to hold a political office that represents more than Howard County.  Does that mean the end of "Mr. Nice Guy?"  Perhaps the Kittleman brand is going to take another turn.  Maybe "Mr. No!"  That doesn't exactly radiate the sort of optimism one might expect from a "different kind of Republican." Let me use more "quote" marks.

Bottom line in this hastily written post - this is probably smart politics for Kittleman over the long-haul, assuming he has aspirations that require being nominated by a Republican party that is drifting ever right-ward.  But it is bad policymaking.  Moreover, he better get ready for life after the override because there is a fine line between "principled" and "ineffectual" - especially if he finds himself standing alone (or only with Mr. Fox) one too many times. There is a Howard County mainstream and right now, he is squarely to the right of it.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Orchestral Manoeuvres in Nu Shooz

And it was June 1986. Da Nang.  No, wait.  It was definitely Lapeer, Michigan. We would walk to the convenience store.  At the base of the Thumb, we called them party stores.  Sometimes, I would carry a small bag of carrots so I could stop along the way and feed Mindy.  Mindy was a horse.  She lived on a small farm just off the main road.  She could probably hurdle the low and increasingly incomplete fence, but she appeared satisfied with her present location.  Besides, it was abnormally hot; the air too humid and the ground too dusty for anything more strenuous than a leisurely amble.   It was 29 years away from having to worry about compliance with a corporate social media guidelines policy regarding personal blogs.  I am referring to myself, of course.  Mindy didn’t care about such things – they weren’t small, crisp, orange, and delicious.  She knew what was important.

Slats, who I hadn’t met yet, would later claim that he spent that summer gearing up for the Babbitt for President campaign.  Somehow, that involved six weeks in a rented villa ten klicks outside of Saint Tropez.  Gearing up was different in the ‘80s.  In any event, he left that effort the following year…well before the cornstalks were hip-high.  “Strategic differences,” he would mutter. 

But this is neither the time nor place for that – Michigan ’86 is.  Was? No, it is.  So that is where we should begin.