From First to Fifth…and some Rs!

Random thoughts:

-       Which HoCo candidate will be brave enough to adopt as their slogan, “54 40 or Fight?”

-       When will the first announcement occur (ok, fine, the second announcement)?

-       What will be the strength of the “R” brand in 2018? Will local GOPers be running towards or away from Trump?  How fast/how near or far?

-       Who will win the Game of Thrones? (the smart money is on Sansa Stark)

-       Situating Monie, is she indeed “in the middle?” Discuss.

-       Will the Republicans bother putting up a candidate in the Fourth? 

-       Who will deliver their announcement speech entirely in the Mid-Atlantic accent?

Enough of that.  I have a table full of brass tacks and it’s time to get down (to them).

Among Democrats:

In the First District, assuming that Jon Weinstein runs for re-election (a safe bet), I don’t think he is likely to face a serious primary challenge.  Lisa Markovitz, of the “People’s Voice,” would lose, badly, in a primary.  She may opt to run as a Republican or perhaps as an Independent I suppose. I believe she will channel her energies elsewhere, either through her PAC or by seeking another office.

The Fifth District is probably eight years away from being competitive.  With that in mind, this author recognizes the importance of fighting the good fight.  Dr. Zaneb “Zee” Beams would be the best option as the standard-bearer for the Democratic Party.  She is incredibly smart and is knowledgeable on a host of salient issues (including, but not limited to, education and health care).  Question: will she be able to ignore what some damn fool blogger says when they discuss communications styles?  Time will tell. Seriously, she should run. 

Whoa, wait, slow down you move too fast. What about the Republican County Council candidates?  Excellent query fictitious questioner.  It’s like you know my every move.  I received very few R names.  I assume it is because they fear the Voice of Truth.  But placing that aside, I know a former Republican Congressman who would sit down and meet with his opponents over a cup of coffee at the outset of the campaign.  It didn’t always establish a more civil tone, but it helped the candidates see each other as human beings.  Frankly, I don’t know why more folks haven’t reached out to this author in this manner.  Oh sure, I am going to write what I am going to write…and God knows I can’t control Slats.  That said, I am less likely to let fly via my blog if I think you are a 1) decent person, 2) with genuinely held beliefs, and 3) don’t possess antediluvian views. 

My mother, being a salt of the Earth Michiganian (note: do not call me a Michigander, I am not a duck) often says, “if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all.”  She also reminds me to “never put anything in writing,” so I don’t always heed her advice, clearly.  That said, here is what I have heard on the GOP side for all of the County Council Districts:

District One:

Kevin Forrest Schmidt.  Ran a close race in a competitive district in ‘14.  I think he hit his high water mark last time around.

Christine O’Connor.  I believe she is both a Republican and a resident of the 1^st.  She has some strength here, as witnessed by her electoral showing in multiple precincts in Eastern HoCo in 2014 (albeit for a non-partisan race).  She may decide to run for Council as opposed to seeking re-election to the Board of Education.   

District Two:

Reg Avery.  Pass.

District Three:

FIVE names, count ‘em.  This one might be interesting.  I don’t believe the Republicans can win in the Third but there are some serious people whose names are being floated, especially the first three:

Dennis Schrader

Diane Wilson

Susan Garber

Jimmy Williams

Chris Yates

District Four:

Crickets.

District Five:

Actually this is intriguing as well.  I’ve heard five names:

Vicky Cutroneo.  I don’t know her that well but I thought she ran a solid campaign for the Board of Education.  She was responsive to my candidate questionnaire and seems like a nice person overall.  I may have cost her support in a GOP primary just now, my apologies.

Chris Oxenham. Next.

A “Kittleman offspring” was how it was first floated to me. No joke.  I am assuming Haley is the Kittleman in mind.  She is an educator (a plus in the Booms household) and I hear good things about her.     

Frank Mirabile.  If he secures the GOP nomination, this clown shoes will be a frequent topic of discussion on Spartan Considerations.

David Yungmann.  Submitted without further comment.

So what is next?  When I have the time:  a look at the Board of Education…and I might just combine this with people whose names are mentioned but not in connection with a specific office. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Thunder on the Right and Grand Theft Punditry

Note to JB: try changing your password. GrandVerbalizer93? Do you log on to your blog using Prodigy?

Slats here.  I saw the reaction to my Guest Column (four words: laudatory and deservedly so) and thought I would chime in. 

I heard about this Frank Mirabile (among other Republicans) looking at a County Executive primary run.  He is more of a symptom of a larger issue.  In the 1990s, you could get away with triangulating, Bill Clinton did that with the liberals in the Democratic caucus and with the Republicans who controlled the House for most of his Presidency.  It worked (plus ou moins) because you had deal-cutters on all sides (R/D, White House/Senate/House of Reps), and this was particularly the case between 1995 and December 1997.

Kittleman doesn’t have Bill Clinton’s political skills.  He reads glass-jaw to me, but what do I know. I am writing this 50 feet from a fjord.  Beyond that, today’s Republican Party is so radicalized, institutionally and from the top down, that any effort by a conservative like Kittleman (who tries to play the role of moderate) is going to fire up the folks to his right.  This Sanctuary bill puts him in a tough spot.  If he backs it, someone like Mirabile is starting at 30% - 35% in a primary instantaneously.  It becomes the “No New Taxes” in HoCo in the Trump era.  But if he doesn’t support the concept behind the Sanctuary bill, Kittleman loses support among Democrats and moderates who like having a “good Republican” for whom they can vote (See: Anderson ’80, Huntsman ’12, Kasich ‘16).

Frankly, the bill should have three votes on the Council right now.  I understand that Jon Weinstein may have some concerns, but I am not sure why Sigaty is holding back.  Unless she has decided that she wants to run to the right of folks like Ball or Woodcock.  How will that work out for her? Ask President Paul Fucking Tsongas.

Anyway, it seems like the Nullifiers are where the Democratic base is when it comes to Federal immigration policy and the incoming Administration.  It’s a values play: are Americans generous of spirit and respectful of our neighbors or do we run around demanding, “papers, please?”  I don’t know all of the details about that particular piece of legislation, but the fundamental principles behind the debate are the important ones.  And it is always fun when Democrats are able to coalesce human rights, civil rights and state’s rights issues into one package.

Let me answer JB’s viewer mail.  I know his job keeps him occupied and my answers are no better than guesses but until these reindeer stop grazing around my 4C, I am stuck at this bar for a while.

I think he wants to write about other races, including the Board of Education.  He seems jazzed about the current pro-Reform bloc on the BoE and sees opportunities for further progress, with the right candidates, in 2018.  I’m not sure if he thinks there is much to say about County Districts 1 or 5 right now, although he seems high on a “Doctor Z ” even though he is pretty sure she is still steamed over the Schmaltz Incident of ’14.  I think he wants to write about State Legislative Districts 12 and 13…and 9B to a lesser extent, but he wants to hear more from certain incumbents before he engages in open, public speculation involving potential retirements and shifting slates in ’18.

Will he write more? Depends on the gig.  As his mentor, I always told him the key is to “retire young, retire rich.”  The hard-headed bastard never listens. 

Serious offers only on the alpacas.  As is.

Education Reformation

Some issues simply require additional time for sober reflection.

When Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary and Councilman Jon Weinstein announced their collaboration on a bill that would turn the “all at large” seven member Howard County Board of Education into a body that would feature five district and two at-large seats, my visceral response was that it sounded like a smart reform measure. 

But distracted by all of the glitz and glam that the Metro Center area has to offer, I found myself lacking the time to give an appropriate level of thought to the proposal. 

Two months later, I think their bill makes a great deal of sense.  First, it promotes awareness and accountability.  Having one person serving as one’s district-based Board of Education member, along with two at-large members for everyone, makes it easier for people to get to know their school board member.  It makes individual advocacy efforts by parents, students, and other stakeholders easier.  Have an issue with a school in, for example, Elkridge? If the Atterbeary/Weinstein (Weinstein/Atterbeary?) legislation were to be enacted, a neighborhood-based board member becomes the logical point of contact.  This should also promote geographic diversity among the board membership and, hopefully, a greater familiarity with the unique opportunities and challenges facing all of the schools across our growing County.

Frankly, the same rationale applies to shifting from multi-member state delegate districts to single-member districts, but I will revisit that issue on another day.

Back to my main point, there are many entities that exercise policy-making functions whereby the individual members are elected by a smaller constituency to represent a larger interest.  This is how every state legislature works.  This is how Congress works.  This is how our County Council works. [Note: an earlier version of this post incorrectly cited MoCo's BoE as an example here.  Are there elected Boards of Education with similar arrangements? I am going to go with almost certainly.  Do I have time to look them up? No, but feel free to do so]. [Second note: thinking about local examples, I believe that at least some of the Harford County Board of Education seats are district-based.  I think they have a hybrid that includes elected and appointed as well as at-large and district board members.  Again, you may want to check on that.].

My contention is this: the partial reorganization of the Howard County Board of Education would not invite an epoch of rampant provincialism.   Everyone who holds the office would know that their duty is to act in the best interests of the County as a whole.  Moreover, as is frequently pointed out, majorities are required for the Board to act.  Thus, it is difficult to make a compelling argument that having multiple district-based seats would lead to a “less equitable” distribution of resources anymore than saying that the current arrangement, with representation from only three of the five Council Districts, leads to such inequities.  

Bottom line:  as a measure designed to promote the connection between the public and the policy-setting body, the Atterbeary-Weinstein plan is the right move for Howard County’s public education system.  If you haven’t already, let your elected representatives know.  Tell ‘em Sparty sent you.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Philanthropic Foursome

The major takeaways from last night’s program: “The State of Nonprofits in Howard County: Perceptions, Challenges and Opportunities” were, in my estimation:

• Be mindful of the opportunities to help, and don’t be afraid to begin a dialogue, ask questions, and take action.

• When considering volunteer possibilities, think about what strikes a chord with you personally.  Perhaps think and feel in equal measure; a true head/heart collaboration.  What causes evoke an emotional response? That might provide a useful internal compass.

The panel spoke before a Standing Room Only crowd at the Jeffers Hill Neighborhood Center.  There were many elected officials and activists in the audience.  Courtney Watson delivered brief remarks.  She spoke about the election returns and, importantly, vowed to continue to work for the policies and causes dear to many of the assembled.  She received a warm round of applause.  Jon Weinstein, the Council Member-elect from the 1^st Council District, the three Delegates-elect from the 12^th HD, Clarence Lam, Terri Hill and Eric Ebersole, and Judge of the Orphans’ Court-elect Nicole Bormel Miller were also in attendance.

Considering the fatigue levels of many of the assembled, coming so soon after a long and bruising election season, the Columbia Democratic Club and Alan Brody, the evening’s moderator, really pulled off a spectacular event.

As Council Member Watson did, I would also like to acknowledge the dedication of two of her key campaign staffers who were present last night: Anna Mudd and Dylan Goldberg.  Having just completed a marathon, while running at a sprint pace, they both exhibited impressive vim and vigor levels.  Today’s campaign workers must be doing something right. Clean living?  Perhaps. In any event, they are rising stars and we shall hear more from them down the road.

But I digress.  The Philanthropic Foursome of Bita Dayhoff, Joan Driessen, Mickey Gomez, and Beverly White-Seals were at the epicenter of last night’s gathering/educational experience. 

The highlights, in my mind, were those moments when the panelists or audience members discussed personal experiences and how those events helped lead to a Pivotal Question (What can I do?  How can I help?  Where do I go now?) and/or a Helping Action (Knowing X, I was able to do Y). 

While the information on the challenges being faced by Howard County nonprofits was interesting, the stories that were uplifting and/or resulted in the transmission of useful information (In order to address specific challenge Z, here are some resources you might consider…) were, far and away, the most engaging and productive elements of the program.  Those were the memorable moments, and the ones most likely to motivate potential volunteers to become actual volunteers.

With that in mind, I encourage you to visit the websites of the organizations that were represented so ably on the panel:

The Community Action Council of Howard County

The Community Foundation of Howard County

The Association of Community Services of Howard County

The Volunteer Center Serving Howard County

That is all for today. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Surface Tension: A Topline Post Election Wrap-Up

There will be time for a deep dive into the numbers.  Now is not the moment.  Here are some initial observations regarding last night’s Election results:

The recent high-water mark for a Maryland gubernatorial race is Governor Martin O’Malley’s 56.2% in his 2010 re-election bid.  (Side note: what is he going to say in Des Moines? In Cedar Falls? In Sioux City?).   In 2006, he won with 52.7% and four years prior to that, the Democratic nominee for Governor obtained only 47.68% of the statewide vote.

My point is that Maryland has witnessed some competitive Governor’s races, four of the last six being won by single-digit margins. So even with the demographic trends of recent years, the 2014 gubernatorial election was unlikely to be a cakewalk. But any serious Democratic nominee for that office would have to be considered a significant favorite going into a general election contest.

Yet Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown lost, to a B-tier Republican candidate.  I believe this occurred because:

1)   Maryland was not immune from the Democratic shellacking that occurred nationwide.

2)   Biography aside, his campaign was uninspiring.  Yes, I was a Mizeur voter in the primary but I cast my ballot for Brown in the general; even though the campaign didn’t communicate much in the way of a positive rationale for such an act.

3)   Democratic turnout in MD was lower than expected. I don’t have the final or even penultimate numbers in front of me, but there was an enthusiasm/activation gap…and the Republicans ran a stronger than expected GOTV operation.  Also, the GOP brand seems to have recovered a bit from the earlier post-Bush 43 years, even though voters still show high dissatisfaction levels with both parties and with the both the President and Congress.

4)   “Articulation”-oriented campaign (covered elsewhere in this blog) can be tough.  You find yourself running against your opponent and the perceived sins of the affiliated incumbent administration.  I don’t believe the Brown campaign pulled together a truly compelling/cohesive narrative when discussing the O’Malley record.

Senator Allan Kittleman, apparently Howard County Executive-elect, would have been Governor-elect had he tossed his hat into that ring instead.  I am guessing he knows I am right on this matter.

How bad was it for Democrats locally?  Congressman Cummings' GOP opponent garnered 43.89% of the vote in the Howard County portion of the 7^th Congressional District and said opponent would, charitably, be called a perennial candidate. 

It appears as though Jon Weinstein pulled off a victory in Councilmanic District 1, a true swing constituency.  How did he accomplish this? I believe he did an excellent job of localizing the election, framing the race on local issues and concerns.  That appealed to a majority of voters in the First.

I still maintain that Courtney Watson ran a strong campaign for County Executive.  Look, had they not attempted to reposition Kittleman, he probably would have won with 55% of the vote in an election cycle such as this.  The comparative effort was necessary and generally decently executed.  Moreover, Watson provided numerous reasons to vote for her, not just against Kittleman.  She had a good narrative but it just wasn’t enough in a Rejection Election cycle (you can read more about that concept here: http://www.michiganliberal.com/diary/7278/).

The biggest bummer of the evening, for me, was 9B.   From a technical perspective, it would be hard to find a Maryland campaign better run than Tom Coale’s.  Running a positive citizen-neighbor-legislator style effort that was focused on local issues and finding practical solutions for the present and the future…it simply wasn’t enough to overcome a well-known GOP opponent in a highly competitive single-member House of Delegates district.

On the Howard County Board of Education, the results were not a huge surprise.  I voted the Apple Ballot because I believe they would have been an effective team.  In terms of intensity, I was primarily concerned with electing Altwerger (who won) and Beams (who did not…which was very disappointing).  That said, I am not displeased that Christine O’Connor won a seat.  I was not thrilled when she allied herself with Mike Smith, that decision dropped her to the fifth position on my list, but she was in the running for a while.  And thank goodness that neither Smith nor Dyer finished in the top four.

At some point, I am going to talk about people who sought public office this cycle that were unsuccessful...but who should run again.  But I am too cranky to write about 2016 or 2018 right now.  Let’s call it a post.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Primary Election Wrap Up

Having seen so many legitimately odd election cycles, I am reluctant to engage in anything that might be misconstrued as triumphalism. So I will just say that I am generally pleased with most of the Primary Election outcomes.  A number of my friends won and I am delighted for them.  Most importantly, I hope those campaigns continue to work both smart and hard as they refocus their efforts for the General Election.

Some reflections:

On the Governor’s Race:

While the Democratic gubernatorial primary witnessed some hard fighting, there are no deep-seated ideological schisms that threaten to tear the party apart between now and November. Sure Mizeur ran to the left of Brown and Gansler to the right of both of them, but the vast majority of Democrats could live with any of those three candidates as the party’s nominee for Governor.  While there may be some personal animosity among some of the candidates, their family members, their staffers and a few members of the Chattering Class, more than 90% of Maryland Democrats will rally around the Brown – Ulman ticket.  And more Democrats will turn out for the General Election. 

In short, the newly minted GOP nominee for Governor, Larry Hogan, would be wasting his time targeting disaffected Democrats…there will be too few of them. Instead, I expect he will run a modified base strategy to drive up Republican turnout while simultaneously attempting to articulate a sufficiently palatable platform in an effort to cobble together a large enough coalition of conservative-leaning and moderate unaffiliated voters (Independents) to run a competitive campaign.  And hope for a GOP tidal wave of 1994 proportions.  That is his plan and, frankly, only shot at winning.  Such a scenario is unlikely to occur.  Expect a Brown-Ulman Administration.  

And I believe that Heather Mizeur will be an excellent candidate for another statewide office in the not-too-distant future.  She ran a fantastic campaign, but it just wasn’t her time this year.

On the AG Race:

I am glad that progressive talent won out despite the strength of the Cardin brand.  Brian Frosh was clearly the best choice, but the best choices don’t always win (For more information see: “Fair, world is not”).

On House District 9B:

Tom Coale is a bright, good government policy wonk.  He ran a positive, issues-oriented campaign and won.  It was a recurring theme of the night, at least in Howard County, that such candidates emerged victorious while many negative campaigns went down in flames.   The GOP nominee for Delegate, Bob Flanagan, is no slouch.  This is a true swing district and Coale has some heavy lifting ahead; but he is clearly the Democrat best positioned – by background and temperament – to consolidate the base while appealing to Independents as well as those Republicans who might view Flanagan as being a bit too paleo.  

On Senate District 9:

Ryan Frederic was absolutely correct in highlighting the differences between himself and Medinger on certain social issues.  Now, he can focus on his knowledge of economic issues and his history as a job creator in what promises to be a fascinating match-up against Gail Bates.  I don’t know if the 9th Senate District, demographically, can elect a Democrat (yet)…it might be a cycle or two away, but Frederic gives the party a decent chance of a pick-up. 

On House District 12:

Barring some sort of cataclysmic event, Clarence Lam, Terri Hill and Eric Ebersole are going to Annapolis.  The first two were close to virtual locks based on their wide support, deep pockets, and solid campaign skills. 

Ebersole, in my mind, started off as a mid-tier candidate.  He hustled, he worked on his patter, he picked up some serious institutional support and he benefited from a divided field.  So while his mailers were mediocre, at best, he worked the District. You have to respect that.  He ran well in both the Howard and Baltimore County portions of the district.  And, based on the returns available thus far, Ebersole even out-polled Nick Stewart in Baltimore County (1,490 – 1,485).   He also banked a considerable number of early votes, which proved quite important because, among Election Day voters, Rebecca Dongarra placed close behind Ebersole (2,791 for Dongarra compared to 2,903 for Ebersole).

Looking ahead, I hope Brian Bailey (and Rebecca Dongarra) can move past some of the personal issues that frankly, got way out of hand and led to some bone-headed decisions and attacks.  Both have talents and it would be unfortunate to see them squandered.

Stewart, a smart, affable candidate, sent out some great mailers and had the backing of Jimmy Malone and some other organizations…but his relative newcomer status hurt his campaign and I don’t think his positioning as the Pragmatic Choice captured as many hearts and minds as he hoped it might.  Perhaps another office, another year.

And a big thumbs-up to Adam Sachs for running with integrity and grit in the face of long odds.  I was hoping he might fare a little better, but when the Mizeur numbers started coming in, it was clear that an upset would be extremely unlikely.    

On House District 13:

The fact that Vanessa Atterbeary is the leading vote-getter (as of this writing) is a mild surprise.  Perhaps the television spots, in conjunction with her position on the ballot, vaulted her to first place, ahead of Frank Turner and Shane Pendergrass.  In any event, it was a very good night for Team 13, with Nayab Siddiqui failing to catch fire, despite (or perhaps partially because of) his television ads.  It will be interesting to see Atterbeary as a Delegate. 

On County Council District 1:

It is no secret that Jon Weinstein is a friend of mine and I am elated that he won last night, especially in a field with three other serious candidates (clarification: Dave Grabowski is a serious person who, inexplicably, did not run a serious campaign).  Seriously.

I think Jon’s business intelligence combined with his progressive values make him a great fit for District 1, and will serve him well on the County Council.

Wendy Royalty has a future in elective office, should she decide to re-enter the arena.  Like Rick Perry in 2012 (and I am guessing some folks won’t love the comparison but bear with me), she jumped in too late.  Meanwhile, Jon had the benefit of running before and getting an early start this time around, which led to a more polished performance. 

Jon has a legitimate GOP opponent in Kevin Forrest Schmidt. The partisan breakouts indicate that the First remains a winnable district for the Republicans, under a particular set of circumstances.  Jon’s talents as a campaigner, and Courtney Watson’s presence on the ballot, should help keep District One in the Democratic column, but this will be a race to watch.

On the HoCo Democratic Central Committee:

Let’s see…Candace Dodson Reed tied for first place and eight of the ten members of the Progressive Democratic Central Committee Team finished in the Top 12. That is a landslide no matter how you slice it.  This represents an incredible opportunity for the Democratic Party in Howard County to build upon the successes of those who have served well in the past…and to move the Party forward.  Looking at those who ran, it would have been perfect if Agnes Dunson Reid and Charles Bubeck (from the Progressive Team) and Kimberly Pruim had placed in the top 12.  But overall, it was a very encouraging outcome.

On the Howard County Board of Education:

The results could best be summarized as follows: the power of incumbency + the slate backed by the teachers.  That accounts for the top five finishers, with Cindy Vaillancourt, who was first with 15,450 votes (as of this writing), over 1,100 more than the second place finisher, fellow Board Member Sandra French.

Dr. Zaneb Beams needs to step up her game in order to win a seat in November.  Her fifth place showing behind the two incumbents as well as Bess Altwerger and Dan Furman indicate that she has some ground to make up between now and General Election Day.

I am disappointed but not surprised that Allen Dyer made the first cut.  I was hoping that Olga Butler and Maureen Evans Arthurs would finish in the top eight (with Dyer and Smith being the two odd men out, in this Alternate Universe).  They bring different skills to the table, but both Butler and Evans Arthurs would be capable Board of Education members.  I hope they choose to run again in the future.

On the Orphans’ Court:

Pleased that Leslie Smith Turner, Anne Dodd, and Nicole Bormel Miller are the Democratic nominees.  Enough said.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

  

The Forum (Part III) – And the First shall be last.

Dawn.  Kowloon.  The Walled City.  The first rays of sunlight meandered between the tenement houses and gently alit upon a window looking out upon a caged balcony.  That window…and the figure talking into a telephone behind it…were visible from the rooftop of the apartment across the alleyway.  The sole human presence on that rooftop was a sniper, who was too pre-occupied focusing the sights on his Vapensmia NM149 to notice…

…Is how this post would begin if it were a Robert Ludlum novel.  Alas, it is instead about the League of Women Voters of Howard County Candidate Forum, specifically the panel discussion among the six candidates for Howard County Council (District One).

Perhaps it would be better crafted as a Ludlum work.  It could be titled The Elkridge Gambit.   But such thoughts had not yet entered my mind as I was scribbling away in that dark auditorium, watching four Democratic and two Republican candidates sitting onstage behind a rectangular table.  Each had the opportunity to deliver very brief opening and closing statements…and field questions from the Moderator.

Before I launch into a brief analysis of the candidate performances that specific evening, it should be noted that I, and some friends of mine, support one of them: Jon Weinstein (D).  I have other friends who support another, Wendy Royalty (D).  Regarding the other two Democratic candidates, I don’t believe I have ever met Dave Grabowski and my contact with Lisa Markovitz was limited to a brief exchange after the Forum.  I have not made the acquaintance of the two Republican candidates: Kevin Forrest Schmidt and David Blake Melton.    

My interest thus declared, here we go:

I believe Weinstein had the best night.  An experienced campaigner, he seemed comfortable with the format. He delivered answers that provided the audience members with insights into his perspective on governing: which includes a recognition of the interdependent nature of multiple issues (education, economic growth, transportation, etc…) and the importance of working collaboratively to find “balanced,” thoughtful solutions to the challenges facing Howard County.

Weinstein is a small businessman who has experience working with government agencies to promote “efficiency, accountability and transparency.”  He ran a good race in a tough seat (House District 9A) four year ago and enjoys some residual Name ID from that effort. I think his small business background, his service in the U.S. Army Reserves, and his community activism make him an excellent candidate for the General Election.  The First is a swing district, the only one of the five, and I believe that Weinstein can hold the Democratic base while pulling in a good number of Independent voters and perhaps a decent percentage of progressive-minded Republicans.  In my opinion, he is Democratic Party’s best bet to hold the seat and allow Democrats to maintain their 4 to 1 advantage on the County Council.

Royalty turned in the second best performance of the evening.  Having served as a pollster to dozens of national, state and local campaigns over the past 24 years, it is relatively easy to identify those who are new to the campaign trail as a candidate.  Royalty sounded like a candidate who is still working to find her voice.  Her late entry is not helping her (she filed in February and it appears as though she didn’t begin exploring the possibility of running for that Council seat until January…according to this article).

Make no mistake; Royalty is qualified to hold the office.  One of my higher compliments about someone is that they are serious, and she is serious.

She had a solid response to the question about support for the non-profit arts community when she remarked how “non-profits save millions of taxpayer dollars.”  This reinforces her platform calling for fiscal soundness.   She provided thoughtful insights on education and teacher morale (note: the Howard County Education Association endorsed Weinstein).  She offered up a vision of greater walkability around, on a better mix of businesses along, Route 40 (I believe it behooves candidates to spend more time talking about the future than the past, so this was a plus).

I really wish she chose to run for a different office.  She is the kind of candidate I like to support. She would make a great candidate for the state legislature (frankly her public policy background seems better suited for Annapolis) or a fine countywide candidate for the Board of Education, given her experience with various education-related organizations.  If Weinstein weren’t running, I would be advocating for her nomination in June and election in November. But that’s the problem, he is. I think he brings a unique skill-set and perspective to the Council. Moreover, I believe Weinstein, not Royalty, is the candidate best positioned to hold the Council seat in what could be a tough election cycle for the Democratic Party nationally.

Markovitz offers a different vision of Howard County.  Frankly, I had a tough time hearing her.  Perhaps it was the acoustics of the auditorium or the placement of the microphone but I missed out on approximately 20% of what she said, so I had to visit her website to fill in some blanks. I am not a particular fan of the organizations with which she is affiliated.  She has a Weltanschauung regarding land use planning, but one that seems out of step with most of the other Council members.  Is she qualified? Probably.  But she seems like the kind of candidate who, if elected, might adopt obstructionist tactics.  Ultimately, I don't think such a worldview or approach is beneficial for District One or the County as a whole.

One of Grabowski’s rationales for running seems to be that this represents the next logical step in his community involvement.  That is a terrible reason to seek public office. It sounds more than a little self-involved.  As a message, it doesn’t say anything about what he would do, if elected, for the citizenry of the First.  Over the course of the forum, he proceeded to sketch out something resembling a nascent platform, which is not encouraging since he has been in the race since June 2013, so he has had plenty of time to develop a more compelling and coherent rationale for his candidacy.  Is he qualified?  On paper, most likely.  In reality? He seems more public access than prime time.

In the interest of wrapping this long post up, I am not going to spend much time talking about the two Republican candidates: Schmidt and Melton.  Of the two, the former is stronger than the latter and will probably emerge as the Republican nominee.   Could either win?  It would take a certain confluence of events (heavy GOP turnout combined with light Democratic turnout in the First and/or the nomination of a weak Democratic candidate).  That said, demographics and party affiliation numbers give the Republican a fair shot at a pick-up. 

Next up…a return to Kowloon?  

Stay tuned, as more will follow.