Thursday, January 18, 2018

HoCo Council Districts 3 and 4 – But What About Bitcoin Contributions?

I once attended a forum where a senior advisor to a cash-strapped presidential candidate attempted to make the argument that having more money, for a campaign, was worse than having less money as the value of the individual dollar was greater when there is less money (based on scarcity of resources).  The good news is that the architecture of the hall was conducive to forming a wave of laughter that swept him off the stage.

Back to local news.

Upon reviewing the latest campaign finance data, there is nothing about the cash hauls in District 3 that compels me to say, X has the nomination sewn up.  Two candidates currently lead the money field, Jennings and Rigby, while the other two, Hunt and Hadgu, each pulled in decent sums.   It’s what one does with the money that matters.  How good is their targeting?  Are they employing the right messaging?  How compelling will their direct mail be?  How are their door-to-door efforts proceeding?  Are their volunteers hyper-motivated?  Who is using social media most effectively as a voter engagement platform? These, and others, are questions of critical importance in local elections where most turnout models point toward “low.”  Not to mention that another candidate (or two) could conceivably jump into the fray, which could shake up the equation and lead each campaign to revisit and possibly revise their positioning/strategy.  Granted, I believe that these four will constitute the top four finishers in the D primary, regardless of who else might toss in their chapeau.  In which order will they finish? I have some ideas. I might share them later.

D4: my home district.  There is talk of some malefactor of middling wealth who might jump in.  Let’s put aside this speculation on whether a minion of Big Gas might run.  We need to focus on the whole campaign, as it stands now.  Oh, and sorry Ian, you don’t make the cut.

Jung has a modest war chest, but Fikes is a serious contender who has just gotten started.  There is no “favorite” in this race (from an Establishment perspective, although this author does not pretend to be part of said Establishment).  Jung has a good profile for the office she seeks, but Fikes does as well and is more closely aligned with recent education issues, which is the number one topic in Howard County. See the questions I raised regarding D3?  They also apply to D4.  And rest assured, dear Reader, my preferred candidate will emerge as the Democratic nominee in the Fourth District. 

In solidarity.

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