Maryland Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Survey Results – April Fool-Free Zone

Disclaimers first:  this was a “fun” poll…it is not based on proportionate-to-probability sampling of the likely electorate.  The findings are not projectable.  Most of the study respondents are probably highly informed/politically engaged individuals who reside in the Greater Howard County Metropolitan Region.  The data collection mechanism was via social media platforms, with my Facebook friends and Twitter followers constituting all, or almost all, of the study participants.  The total N was 40, about the size of 4 or 5 standard focus groups.

With all of the above in mind, that doesn’t mean there weren’t some interesting results…

Question: Looking ahead to the 2018 Maryland Democratic Primary Election for Governor, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

1)    Total number of votes won by Rushern Baker, John Delaney, Kevin Kamenetz, and Dutch Ruppersberger combined?  Zero.  Analysis:  I would have expected at least a smattering of votes for the two County Execs and the two Congressmen, primarily the former three. 

2)    So who “won?”  Former County Executive and LG nominee Ken Ulman (20%).  Analysis:  I intentionally kept this a one question survey, so I didn’t ask where the respondents resided. So, I can’t run crosstabs by such demographics.  That said, this outcome is not surprising.  That also said, it is clear that there is no overwhelming front-runner in this still-evolving and largely “invisible primary.”

3)    Most interesting outcomes:  The strength of Delegate Maggie McIntosh (15%), Senator Rich Madaleno (12.5%), and former president and CEO of the NAACP Ben Jealous (10%).  Analysis:  it stands to reason that the progressive wing of the party has been energized following the 2016 election results and that such candidates would fare well in these early ballot tests.  Full disclosure: my current “favorite(s)” can be found on this short list.

4)    Mild surprise.  Former MD AG Doug Gansler (7.5%).  Analysis: this has to be driven in large measure by Name ID.  Where precisely is the Gansler constituency in today’s Maryland Democratic Party? 

5)    Receiving two votes:  Congressman John Sarbanes (5%).  Analysis: good political name, decent visibility, has sort of a “goo-goo” issue profile among the cognoscenti. Not certain if I see him as the best option to take on Hogan in 2018…but apparently at least two people do.   

6)    One-voters: Current Delegate and former Congressional candidate Joseline Pena-Melnyk and “technology executive and author” Alec Ross (2.5% apiece).  Analysis: it should be noted that one of the write-ins was “anyone but Joseline Pena-Melynk.”  Ouch.  Ross, on paper and as of this writing, profiles as a different sort of candidate…and if he can raise enough $, he could finish in the top three in a primary…with 15% of the vote.  

7)    There were a total of 10 write-ins (25%).  Analysis: normally, I would attribute this relatively high figure to a design flaw in the questionnaire.  But then I saw the names and realized several people were doing wish lists (again, a manifestation of their dissatisfaction with The Establishment, such as it is), some were undecided, and a couple of respondents were just having fun.  There were four serious names, all receiving one vote apiece:  AG Brian Frosh (2.5%), former Congresswoman and U.S. Senate candidate Donna Edwards (2.5%), former Delegate and candidate for Governor Heather Mizeur (2.5%), and Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner (2.5%).  I voted for three of those four candidates in recent cycles, all fine choices. I already mentioned one of the “other” write-ins…which leaves two other names, neither of which I will report here, one “none of the above,” one “undecided,” and one “sigh.”

8)    Oh yes, influential attorney and former chairman of the University of Maryland Board of Regents James Shea, zero votes.  Analysis: welcome to dark-horse country! Hope the exploration is going well.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

MoCo – PG Shenanigans

I received the following telegram from a “Ma Kish” in Maple Lawn: “I see all of this automobile traffic on U.S. 29. So what is happening south of Exit 13?”

Excellent question Ms. Kish. 

Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker endorsed Congressman Chris Van Hollen for the U.S. Senate today. 

The Official Wisdom is that this is a “bad day for Donna Edwards.”  In terms of expectations, I am not particularly surprised by the endorsement.  Moreover, I don’t know if Mr. Baker’s backing carries with it that many votes.   Favorability transfer is a tricky thing to operationalize.  Moreover, Baker’s support for a 15% property tax hike is tapping into his reservoir of goodwill.

Beyond that, Heather Mizeur announced this afternoon that she would take a pass on the Senate race.  This opens up some space on the non-establishment left, which should be good news for Congresswoman Edwards. 

Beyond beyond that, this field remains – and feels – unsettled.  I am re-reading Peter Goodman and Tony Fuller’s “The Quest for the Presidency 1984” and I am concerned that Team Van Hollen is running a latter-day version of the Mondale campaign:  putting organization and D.C. experience at the heart of the campaign’s raison d’etre rather than articulating a broader vision for America in general and Maryland specifically.  

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

And the Fourth Shall be Third

So I ventured out into the Great Drizzle of ’14 yesterday morning…eyeglass lenses fogging up from the humidity.   Driving past a Gisriel sign-spinner, I heard some kind soul shout out to him:  “Make sure you get paid! In cash!!” Solid career advice in any country, in any operation.

This brief journey in the mist ended at a voting booth, tucked inside of the Bain Center where, finally, I was able to cast my ballot for the 2014 Primary Election.

My sample ballot was completely marked up. Some choices were rather easy: Vote for Candace Dodson-Reed and the rest of the Progressive Democratic Central Committee Team…the Talented 10…round it out with Ethel Hill and Kim Pruim for a Dynamic Dozen.  A vote for Brian Frosh as he is a dedicated public servant and because Jon Cardin, based on his track record, would be an absentee AG.  Votes for Bormel Miller, Dodd and Smith Turner for Orphans’ Court because they are several cuts above Chase in terms of qualifications.

What to do about the 12^th?

If one assumes that Clarence Lam and Terri Hill will finish in the top three, what remains is a bar-brawl for the third seat.  Realistically, there are four candidates that have a shot at that position: in alphabetical order, they are Rebecca Dongarra, Eric Ebersole, Michael Gisriel and Nick Stewart.

I am still hoping that progressive voters in the 12^th coalesce around one quality, viable third option to prevent the election of disbarred attorney Michael Gisriel (of #GisrielGetsItWrong fame). But who should it be?

Nick Stewart is not a conservative by any stretch of a sane imagination, but he is clearly tacking to the center.  Going through such sites as:

http://data.baltimoresun.com/voter-guide/

and the League of Women Voters www.vote411.org

you can see the points of differentiation emerge between Stewart and the other, more liberal candidates.  That said, he is raising a serious amount of dough, sending out high quality mailings and has the backing of Delegate Malone, which is not inconsequential in the Baltimore County precincts within the 12^th.   Electable? Sure. But can he wear the progressive mantle?

Eric Ebersole is a polished public speaker.  He has amassed a decent war-chest but he is spending it on direct mail pieces that could charitably be deemed “mediocre.”  Is his message getting out?  Is he energizing an electorate? He is a progressive and is backed by the teachers, which is a Big Deal in many households, including mine.  The frustration here is akin to the letter “i” without the tittle… so close but just not quite there.  Almost the Clear Choice.

From both a policy and political perspective, you can make a (surprisingly) strong case for Rebecca Dongarra.  If many Howard County voters cast their ballot for only two candidates for HD 12 (presumably Lam and Hill), then whoever wins the Baltimore County side of the district – while pulling just enough votes out of HoCo – could eke out a third place finish and a nomination.  Dongarra, like Brian Bailey, is a proven vote-getter in Baltimore County.

But here is where I get a bit idiosyncratic.  Feeling more than a little burned by recent events, and being aware of the history between Dongarra and Bailey, I made up a rule:  I would rule out from consideration anyone who ran for the Baltimore County Council in 2010.  Gordian Knot solved.        

So why the title of this post?  Back when I had three choices for the 12^th, I wrote that I also had a fourth, Adam Sachs.  Not seeing a clear favorite emerge between Stewart, Ebersole and Dongarra, why not vote for the liberal populist Sachs?  While he stands to the left of the rest of the field, he is qualified to hold the office.  He is aligning himself with Delegate Heather Mizeur’s tax relief plan (another strong positive) and, frankly, I am drawn to underdog progressive campaigns.  So I voted for Sachs…and Mizeur for Governor.

If Gisriel wins the nomination by one vote, you can blame me.  That said, I walked out of the Bain Center with some pep in my step.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.