Cabal of the Simple-Minded

So I split for Hispaniola for half of a fortnight and I return to find Brown/Ulman up by only six over Hogan/Rutherford.  

I can only assume some as of yet unnamed madness enveloped the Free State while I was roaming the streets of Santo Domingo, searching for an establishment that served high caliber mofongo.  My old friend and current expat, Slats, recommended a spot 18 miles away in Boca Chica – but the roads were far too treacherous and the moon too high in the sky to hazard such a journey. 

But I digress.  The purveyors of Conventional Wisdom, referenced in the title, would have you believe that the Maryland gubernatorial election should be a cakewalk for the Democratic ticket.  “Safe D” they say. 

I still believe that LG Brown will be our next Governor. That said, at this stage of the game, our Dream Team is coming across a bit more Gamble and Hoitz.  For those who recall that film, it worked out in the end but it damn sure wasn’t pretty.

Caveat: I don’t know the particular methodology of the latest aforementioned survey nor have I explored the internals.   This poll could very well be an outlier.  Other, earlier opinion research from June and July shows a Brown lead in the 15% range.  Personally, as of this writing, I feel the lead is in the 10% ballpark.

My larger point is that Republican candidates for Governor can, and have, won in deep-blue states.   Let’s look at some (fairly) recent examples:

In Vermont in 2000, Gore captured 50.6% of the vote, with Nader pulling in another seven percent; then-Governor Bush finished with 40.7%.  Four years later, Kerry secured 58.9% compared to 38.8% for President Bush.  In 2002, Jim Douglas (a Republican) eked out a 45% plurality and won against a Democratic Lieutenant Governor.

Want a better case study?  Sure, how about Massachusetts.  In 2000, Gore carried the state with 59.8% of the vote with Nader obtaining another 6.4%.  Bush? A mere 32.5%.  In 2004, Kerry crushed Bush 61.9% - 36.8%.  In 2002, some Michigan transplant called Mitt defeated the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (the State Treasurer) by a 49.8% - 44.9% margin.  

How about closer to home?  In 2000, Gore won Maryland with 56.5% while Bush managed only 40.3%.  In 2004, the margin tightened a bit – with Kerry only able to win by 13% (55.9% - 42.9%).  Meanwhile, in 2002, GOPer Bobby Haircut beat a Kennedy, also the state LG, with 51.55% of the vote.

Now, 2002 was an odd election cycle – being the first following 9/11.  That said, non-presidential general elections, with lower turnout, can be grim for Democratic office-seekers.

Here is my take on the political realities:

First, many Democrats who did not participate in the primary will vote for the ticket in November.  They just aren’t focused on the race yet.  The challenge is that they need a reason to pay attention and I don’t believe that the Brown/Ulman team is providing a compelling rationale for activation….at least not yet. 

Beyond that, and this applies to a relatively tiny but important slice of the Democratic electorate, there are still some hurt feelings from a bruising primary.  I believe the vast majority of Mizeur and Gansler voters will come home, but some won’t.  I can see a handful from both camps sitting this one out, with perhaps a small percentage of Mizeur voters voting Libertarian while a few Gansler people cross over to vote for Hogan.  Not hordes of voters mind you, but such races can be decided at the margins, by thousands of votes scattered across the state. 

Perhaps Labor Day will witness a spectacular re-unveiling of Brown/Ulman.  That said, it is a little too quiet, even by August standards.  And those who believe that a built-in D advantage ensures their victory would do well to ponder the political fates of Doug Racine, Shannon O’Brien and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.  Brown/Ulman need to consolidate the Democratic base, appeal to Independents and reachable Rs - starting now - otherwise they might be spending more time in La Romana than Annapolis come January.  Slats can hook them up. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

On Brown and the Case for a Maryland Deal

From time to time, a political campaign comes along that features a serious but relatively uninspiring candidate, who is nonetheless supported by citizens who are inspired by his or her candidacy.  As of this writing, unfortunately, Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown falls into that category.

I am offended by those who claim that the Brown/Ulman campaign has been "gutless" (as one columnist recently opined).  They did run a rather small-c conservative effort.  Avoid high risk & high reward.  Three yards and a cloud of dust. Assume Doug Gansler is too flawed and his positioning too conservative to emerge as a palatable alternative; anticipate that Heather Mizeur will generate a great deal of excitement with the Liberals, but no one else. Don't panic.  Don't deviate from the strategy. Let the fundraising, the ad buys and the institutional/organizational support carry the day.

And it did.  Which might tempt someone in the Brown/Ulman orbit to shout out, "Second verse, same as the first!"  And why not?  Surely the battle for the Democratic nomination would be the tougher fight...why expend political capital against a B-tier GOP gubernatorial nominee like Lawrence "Uncle Lar'" Hogan?

The reasons are straightforward.

First, Hogan may be a second-stringer but, as was witnessed across the state in the primary election, odd things can happen in elections with lower voter participation rates.  Historically, general election turnout is considerably lower in mid-Presidential term election years; and it tends to favor the party that does not control the White House.  I don't have the statewide data in front of me...but in Howard County, in recent cycles, turnout has been just north of 80% in presidential elections and 60%-65% in mid-term elections.  Could a national GOP wave elect Hogan? Highly unlikely, but not impossible.  Running a simple, narrowly-focused turn-out-the D base effort probably puts a hard ceiling of 55% on the Brown/Ulman ticket, and increases the dangers of a handful of missteps knocking the campaign further to the left, away from the more independent-minded voters that will constitute a larger percentage of the November 2014 electorate.  

Second, there is a link between election outcomes and the ability to govern effectively.  Lt. Governor Brown, if elected our next Governor, will want a governing mandate.  I know the ticket has a vision for Maryland, a version of it can be found on the campaign site here. That said, I believe the communications effort behind the advancement of said vision (the overarching narrative and the supporting policy proposals) has been...a little too cautious.  This is a time for boldness, send a clear message that the Democratic Party has substantive ideas to improve the lives of working and middle class Americans.   Folks in Annapolis - and beyond - will take note if Lt. Governor Brown obtains 57%+ of the vote in what is presumed to be a decent year for Republicans nationwide.  O'Malley's high-water mark was 56.2%, and Brown won't exceed that percentage playing small ball.

There was a New Deal and a Fair Deal...why not a Maryland Deal?   Package a combination of progressive ideas on economic growth/job creation and education reform with some populist good government proposals and a renewed call for civic engagement and public service (build upon the Compact with Maryland Veterans).  An amalgamation of red meat for the base and policy positions that appeal to the unaffiliated, the post-partisan, and other persuadables who can be convinced that a Hogan Administration in Maryland would be a recipe for the kind of stagnation found in the District.  
 Moreover, a resounding win will better enable Brown to advance his legislative agenda, and better position him (and his running mate Howard County Executive Ken Ulman) for whatever opportunities might present themselves a bit further down the road.  

If nothing else, having Brown and Ulman out on the campaign trail across the State - in Democratic strong-holds, swing districts and even some marginal R precincts - actively and consistently promoting a larger and compelling vision for the state, offering up the perfect measure of Change and Continuity, well, that would be inspiring.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Reading Between the Lines

This post was supposed to be about the League of Women Voters of Howard County - Board of Education Candidate Forum.  The event was well-run by a team of...ninjas? My notes are almost entirely illegible. Blame it on a pho broth spill. Let's assume I meant "moderators."

I penned about 350 words but the story lacked both a hook and a core, so that assignment is going to be put aside...for now.  I might craft a BoE endorsement post, but I would need to winnow the field down to a top four first.  As of this moment, the best I can do is three tiers: Probably, Probably Not, and Heck No. If anyone wants to make a pitch for their favorite(s), feel free to comment below or send me an email or message.

There is some positive news that deserves attention: A new library and senior center is coming to Elkridge.  Being a huge fan of libraries in general...and Howard County's acclaimed library system in particular... I am elated that Council County member Courtney Watson's determined efforts - along with Howard County Library System CEO Valerie Gross and the support of community leaders such as Jon Weinstein (who testified in favor of the Elkridge library upgrade at a recent budget hearing) - have produced big results that will enhance the quality of life for many of our residents.  Great news indeed.

Relevant coverage can be found here and here. 

This is exactly the sort of leadership that Howard County needs: smart, practical, hard-working, collaborative and outcome-oriented.  And of course I would be remiss not to recognize County Executive Ken Ulman for increasing the funding necessary to move ahead on the library and senior center.  

Looking at the leadership descriptors I used in the first sentence of the previous paragraph, perhaps this post was about the Board of Education after all.     

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Zen Mind, Beginner's Mind - Maryland Politics Edition

The boffins call it crepuscularity, being active during twilight.   Alert drivers know that deer are more likely to amble near the roads at those hours. 

The opportunities of the day seem most promising at dawn; the possibilities of the night appear greatest at dusk.  At those times of transition, the mind is open to considering multiple riffs in response to the question: “What if?”

Even veteran politicos occasionally ask questions or hold positions that, on their surface, might appear silly or otherwise off base. At times, they are.  Other times, they are plugging into their life experiences and, knowing that the world can be very odd indeed, they speculate out loud on the possible…and realize that even the highly improbable can become Reality. They have seen it happen before.

It is with these thoughts as a prologue that I turn my attention to the Maryland gubernatorial campaign – specifically the Democratic primary.

Using Professor Skowronek’s classification system, the front-runner, Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, would probably best be described as an “orthodox innovator.”  Elect the ticket of Brown and his running mate, Howard County Executive Ken Ulman, and you can expect an Administration that builds upon the work of the outgoing Governor, Martin O’Malley.  Two smart, competent public servants who are pledging the equivalent of Keeping Maryland Moving.

The Brown/Ulman campaign is leading in the polls, has considerable establishment support, and is raising steaming heaps of cash.  

Unfortunately, the talent-heavy combo is running a bit too cautious.  Their new ad “Trusted” is a well-produced bio spot but it feels like a safe move to reinforce the brand.  This happens to front-runners.  Muskie ’72 took a similar path and that campaign found itself on the wrong end of a boot stomping…and when the electability argument falters, there had better be something to replace it. 

Perhaps their records are strong enough, and their vision will be clear enough, to surmount the inevitable challenges that will arise between now and the June primary, but I don’t think the duo is quite there yet.

If the Brown/Ulman ticket is Coca-Cola, the Gansler-Ivey team is Royal Crown.  Had Congressman Delaney or Congressman Ruppersberger…or Comptroller Franchot…entered the fray, the conversation right now would be focused on how Attorney General Gansler can break the 10% barrier and if he could pay his staffers their gas reimbursements in anything other than IOUs for bitcoins.

His “For Us” ad is not bad. It connects to voter concerns and hopes.  This is smart politics but also – in his case – necessary.  His Party Selfie Shown Round the World and allegations of being a bit less than levelheaded require him to shift the focus from “the man” to “our cause.”  While he can raise some funds, he feels too close to his ceiling (despite current polls showing him only in the 14% - 15% range).  With luck, his campaign would finish with 28% of the vote but I would wager that is the high-water mark for that ticket.  He probably ends up with closer to 24%.  By July, his running mate, Delegate Jolene Ivey, will have a much brighter political future than Gansler.

Delegate Heather Mizeur has embraced the insurgent, issue-oriented, progressive positioning.  As a general rule, such campaigns are fun to watch.  Also as a general rule, they usually don’t win (at the presidential level, Dean 2004 leaps to mind…interestingly, the organization that he founded, Democracy for America, is backing Mizeur).

Her selection of Reverend Delman Coates, much like then-Governor Clinton’s pick of then-Senator Al Gore as his running mate, represents a decision to double down on a narrative.  In the case of Mizeur-Coates: an Outsider/Anti-Establishment theme.

Which may be smart politics in 2014.  Voter anxiety levels are revved up.  As it is a non-presidential election year, turnout is unlikely to be high…with the more ideologically driven voters constituting a larger part of the electorate.  Frustration is not limited to Republicans and Independents.  There are Democrats who feel alienated from their government, from politicians who they believe do not listen, or truly understand, their problems.  If they are looking to send a message of change instead of continuity, a vote for Heather Mizeur for Governor would send such a message.

The challenge for Mizeur is to ramp up her profile to the point where voters can make the connection that her candidacy is the best vehicle for change.  Not just intellectually, but viscerally.  That requires some heavy lifting in a relatively short period of time.

And perhaps the majority of Maryland Democrats favor some version of the status quo. However, her campaign is based on the animating principle that the voters want a new choice and a different direction.   Is she right? It remains to be seen.

Which brings me back to where I started.  Although she is running third in the polls, and contrary to what passes for conventional wisdom these days, I believe that Delegate Mizeur might just pull off the upset and win the primary.  If so, it will be by the narrowest of margins over Brown.  More likely, she runs a very respectable second and becomes the instant-front runner for another public office in a not-too-distant election cycle….but there is a path to victory for her in 2014.

I may be wrong and events may follow a different course, but I am open to the idea of that improbability becoming a reality…and the sun is high overhead.

 Stay tuned, as more will follow.