Maryland Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Survey Results – April Fool-Free Zone

Disclaimers first:  this was a “fun” poll…it is not based on proportionate-to-probability sampling of the likely electorate.  The findings are not projectable.  Most of the study respondents are probably highly informed/politically engaged individuals who reside in the Greater Howard County Metropolitan Region.  The data collection mechanism was via social media platforms, with my Facebook friends and Twitter followers constituting all, or almost all, of the study participants.  The total N was 40, about the size of 4 or 5 standard focus groups.

With all of the above in mind, that doesn’t mean there weren’t some interesting results…

Question: Looking ahead to the 2018 Maryland Democratic Primary Election for Governor, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

1)    Total number of votes won by Rushern Baker, John Delaney, Kevin Kamenetz, and Dutch Ruppersberger combined?  Zero.  Analysis:  I would have expected at least a smattering of votes for the two County Execs and the two Congressmen, primarily the former three. 

2)    So who “won?”  Former County Executive and LG nominee Ken Ulman (20%).  Analysis:  I intentionally kept this a one question survey, so I didn’t ask where the respondents resided. So, I can’t run crosstabs by such demographics.  That said, this outcome is not surprising.  That also said, it is clear that there is no overwhelming front-runner in this still-evolving and largely “invisible primary.”

3)    Most interesting outcomes:  The strength of Delegate Maggie McIntosh (15%), Senator Rich Madaleno (12.5%), and former president and CEO of the NAACP Ben Jealous (10%).  Analysis:  it stands to reason that the progressive wing of the party has been energized following the 2016 election results and that such candidates would fare well in these early ballot tests.  Full disclosure: my current “favorite(s)” can be found on this short list.

4)    Mild surprise.  Former MD AG Doug Gansler (7.5%).  Analysis: this has to be driven in large measure by Name ID.  Where precisely is the Gansler constituency in today’s Maryland Democratic Party? 

5)    Receiving two votes:  Congressman John Sarbanes (5%).  Analysis: good political name, decent visibility, has sort of a “goo-goo” issue profile among the cognoscenti. Not certain if I see him as the best option to take on Hogan in 2018…but apparently at least two people do.   

6)    One-voters: Current Delegate and former Congressional candidate Joseline Pena-Melnyk and “technology executive and author” Alec Ross (2.5% apiece).  Analysis: it should be noted that one of the write-ins was “anyone but Joseline Pena-Melynk.”  Ouch.  Ross, on paper and as of this writing, profiles as a different sort of candidate…and if he can raise enough $, he could finish in the top three in a primary…with 15% of the vote.  

7)    There were a total of 10 write-ins (25%).  Analysis: normally, I would attribute this relatively high figure to a design flaw in the questionnaire.  But then I saw the names and realized several people were doing wish lists (again, a manifestation of their dissatisfaction with The Establishment, such as it is), some were undecided, and a couple of respondents were just having fun.  There were four serious names, all receiving one vote apiece:  AG Brian Frosh (2.5%), former Congresswoman and U.S. Senate candidate Donna Edwards (2.5%), former Delegate and candidate for Governor Heather Mizeur (2.5%), and Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner (2.5%).  I voted for three of those four candidates in recent cycles, all fine choices. I already mentioned one of the “other” write-ins…which leaves two other names, neither of which I will report here, one “none of the above,” one “undecided,” and one “sigh.”

8)    Oh yes, influential attorney and former chairman of the University of Maryland Board of Regents James Shea, zero votes.  Analysis: welcome to dark-horse country! Hope the exploration is going well.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Obligatory Post Election Post

Highlights with 110 of 124 precincts reporting:

-       Once again, the HCEA demonstrated its electoral intelligence and clout.  They endorsed three strong Board of Education candidates, who emerged as the top three vote-getters.  45.7% of the total BoE votes cast (179, 469 and counting…bearing in mind that voters could vote for up to three candidates) were for HCEA-backed candidates.

-       Coombs, Delmont-Small, and Ellis were smart to focus their campaigns on positive, reform-centric themes. 

-       Giles clearly made an attempt to create some distance between herself and the other incumbents.  One could argue that this modified triangulation strategy succeeded only in reinforcing the anti-incumbent frame.

-       With two Board of Education incumbents losing their re-election bids, the question becomes:  what is the best vehicle for ensuring Siddiqui’s defeat in November?  With five very good challenger options, some strategic voting might prove necessary in the general election to ensure a clean sweep.  

-       It’s time for Sanders voters (I was one) to recognize that Clinton is the best and only hope for progressives who wish to build upon the Obama Administration’s successes. 

-       I was hoping that Edwards would be more competitive in Howard County.  That said, Van Hollen's nomination should ensure that Maryland is represented by two Democrats in the U.S. Senate in the next Congress.   

 Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Uncommonly Brief

“One good thing about the sameness of America’s suburbs, you can always imagine that you are someplace else.” – S. MacCune (circa 1992)

Nostalgia is a persistent companion…and his reflections on homogeneity and city planning revisited me after nearly a quarter century.

Of course it would be easy to veer off in the direction of Columbia triumphalism.  And these thoughts did occur as I was jaunting back to the Home Office in Wilde Lake.  Northbound on Broken Land.

Frozen in one moment in time, the nascent development on the real estate known as the Crescent may appear to be a move in the direction of uniformity.  Hopefully, as the nearby Inner Arbor takes shape, our evolving City Center will retain a unique character.

Turning from the structures to the people, I am looking forward to reviewing the Primary Election results on Wednesday morning. I am doubly hopeful that our citizens will demonstrate, at the ballot box, that they want something new, different, and better.

Howard County Board of Education:  Coombs, Ellis, Miller

U.S. Senate:  Edwards

President:  Sanders

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

MoCo – PG Shenanigans

I received the following telegram from a “Ma Kish” in Maple Lawn: “I see all of this automobile traffic on U.S. 29. So what is happening south of Exit 13?”

Excellent question Ms. Kish. 

Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker endorsed Congressman Chris Van Hollen for the U.S. Senate today. 

The Official Wisdom is that this is a “bad day for Donna Edwards.”  In terms of expectations, I am not particularly surprised by the endorsement.  Moreover, I don’t know if Mr. Baker’s backing carries with it that many votes.   Favorability transfer is a tricky thing to operationalize.  Moreover, Baker’s support for a 15% property tax hike is tapping into his reservoir of goodwill.

Beyond that, Heather Mizeur announced this afternoon that she would take a pass on the Senate race.  This opens up some space on the non-establishment left, which should be good news for Congresswoman Edwards. 

Beyond beyond that, this field remains – and feels – unsettled.  I am re-reading Peter Goodman and Tony Fuller’s “The Quest for the Presidency 1984” and I am concerned that Team Van Hollen is running a latter-day version of the Mondale campaign:  putting organization and D.C. experience at the heart of the campaign’s raison d’etre rather than articulating a broader vision for America in general and Maryland specifically.  

Stay tuned, as more will follow.