Figuring Out a Way to Work Together

The Howard County Board of Education General Election returns revealed some interesting outcomes.

Based on the still unofficial results:

1. Cindy Vaillancourt obtained the highest number of votes of the eight candidates on the ballot in 57 of the 118 Election Day precincts.  She finished second in another 39 precincts…and in the top four in 117 (all but one of the smaller ones).  She performed well countywide and crushed in Board of Elections Voting District 6 (southeast HoCo: Laurel, Columbia, Jessup, a bit of Ellicott City and Fulton) where she won 27 of the 35 precincts.

Bottom line:  This election served as a vote of confidence in the oft-embattled Vaillancourt. Even with lower turnout, there is no other way to read this outcome.  The other Board Members need to take note, and I am assuming they have already.

2. Sandie French garnered a plurality of the vote in 43 precincts and placed second in another 30.  She also banked the greatest number of early votes (9,721 compared to 9,561 for Vaillancourt).  She fared best in Board of Elections Voting District 2 (Ellicott City) where she won 15 of 26 precincts and also ran well in Board of Elections Voting Districts 3 (primarily West Friendship, Marriottsville, and a slice of western Ellicott City) and 4 (western Howard County) where she won five of six and four of six precincts respectively.

Bottom line:  French capitalized on the strong name identification she has built up over her years of service, a good organization and solid forum performances.  As I noted earlier, incumbents are tough to defeat and this race was no exception.

3. Bess Altwerger won four precincts and finished second in 30.  She was a fine candidate and a prime example that the Howard County Education Association’s backing is important in BoE general elections.  She banked 8,274 early votes, which helped propel her to a third-place finish overall.

4. Christine O’Connor ran away with Voting District 1 (Elkridge, the eastern part of Ellicott City) where she placed first in 13 of the 21 precincts and second in four others.  Overall, she won 18 districts and obtained a second place showing in another 16.  Her strength was concentrated in eastern HoCo but she performed well enough countywide to place in the top four, approximately 200 votes behind Altwerger.  Her 7,426 early votes were 650 more than Dan Furman’s tally.

  

5.  51.95% of the votes cast for Board of Education candidates were cast for candidates supported by the HCEA.  They backed four candidates, two of whom were elected, with the others finishing with respectable fifth and sixth place showings.  It would have been extremely difficult for the full slate to have been successful, given French’s presence on the ballot.  The HCEA would have helped elect a third but O’Connor (an educator) ran a smart campaign and took the fourth position.

Shifting away from numbers for a moment, it is my hope that the two new Members will help usher in a new Era of Good Feelings on the Board of Education.  No one is asking for hand-holding and exchanges of “You are my BFF” texts but the corrosive environment has not been healthy for the Board, for the Howard County Public School System, or the County as a whole.  Now is the time to begin a new dynamic, one that is productive but also conciliatory, respectful and civil. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Immoderate Inclinations

1)        In a county with an active conservative/Tea Party contingent, if Senator Allan Kittleman were really that moderate, don’t you think he would have been primaried from the right?  Yet he was not.  What does that mean?

2)        To answer that question, I recommend reviewing kittlemanfacts.com.    The facts reveal a disappointingly conservative voting record on education, on guns, on economic issues, on the environment, and on women’s health issues.

3)        When a seemingly moderate persona comes in conflict with an actual right wing voting record in Annapolis, what is more important…a “nice guy” personality or a County Executive who shares your values and vision for Howard County…and who has, and who will, deliver real-world results? 

Facts matter. On Tuesday, vote for Courtney Watson for County Executive.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Vote Democratic

Entrenched, conservative interests in America have often condemned, or at least looked warily upon, citizen activism.  In the early days of our Republic, they castigated those who participated in “self-created societies.”  They believed that the people’s voice on affairs of state should be expressed primarily when casting ballots for public office, and infrequently (and quietly) otherwise.

These societies facilitated the ability of citizens to discuss public policy matters; and to organize.  Our first party system evolved out of these debates.

Our Republic, our Democracy, has changed a great deal since the Washington Administration.  Parties have appeared and vanished, issues have risen, been resolved, or transformed, rights have been recognized, extended and curtailed.

With that said, I would maintain that one animating principle remains constant…the interests of a conservative elite who wish to preserve their socioeconomic clout.  Not every conservative is so motivated; nor is every member of the elite conservative.  The point is that there are many who belong to a class that could best be described using Teddy Roosevelt’s classic phrase, “malefactors of great wealth.”  And, many elements of this particular grouping seem to have found a home in today’s Republican Party.

If voter turnout was 100% in Maryland, the forces allied with these reactionary interests would be in full retreat.  They rely upon a combination of citizen disinterest, and generous financial contributions to like-minded candidates and organizations, to advance their agenda.  Sometimes they can cloak their plans under the guise of fair-sounding populist verbiage.  When they have a losing hand, they go on the offensive in the hope of sowing fear and confusion.

That is why it is so important for the average citizen to participate in the electoral process.  It offers an opportunity to rebuke the narrow interests of this conservative elite while ensuring that the voice of the people will be heard, and not just during election season.

Chances are, if you are reading these words, you have already cast your ballot or you plan to do so via absentee or at the polls on Election Day.  This post serves as a reminder then, for you to talk with your friends and family members who may be occasional voters.  Ask them: who do you think wants you to vote and who do you think wants you to “forget” to vote…and why?   Which party and candidates best represent your values, and which are more inclined to work against them?

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Breaking Campaign News: Oops Indeed!

Looks like the so-called "disputed" Allan Kittleman quote in the Team Howard Slate mailer was, in fact, properly sourced and completely accurate.  

In short, Kittleman said it.  Moreover, the Watson campaign and allies - contrary to claims otherwise - used the corrected story.

Based on the original Baltimore Examiner print article (dated 10/7/2006), it appears as though the Kittleman quote used in the now famous mailer (a JPG of which can be found here) was indeed 100% on point.  The quote language from both the original print article and the corrected article, which can be found online, is identical.  

The quote, as written by the Examiner Staff Writer, reads:

“ ‘I think that allowing people who are responsible, like teachers and principals, to carry concealed weapons would make individuals think twice about attacking someone,’ said Howard County state Senator Allan Kittleman, R-District 9.”

That sentence appears verbatim on one of the KittlemanFacts.com mailers, the one with the quote from a mother from Ellicott City who asked: "What was Allan Kittleman thinking?”  A picture of the piece appears at the end of this post.

The only difference between the original print article and the corrected online article exists not with Kittleman’s quote, but with the preamble leading into his remarks.  The mailer uses the language found in the online, corrected article that was published on October 7, 2006:

“At least one state senator said arming educators with guns in response to a string of national deadly school shootings is an idea worth considering.”

[Source: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/senator-open-to-weapons-for-administrators/article/55189]

The original print article features a harder-charging lead-in paragraph:

“At least one state senator said teachers should start arming themselves with guns in schools to protect themselves and others from violent acts.”

The key point here is that, in both versions of the article, original and corrected, the Kittleman quote is the exact same.  And yes, the mailer used the corrected version.

This raises several questions…

1. Did the Kittleman campaign know that his quote was, in fact, accurate?  If so, when did they know this?  If they didn’t know, that is poor due diligence on their part.  If they did know, then why did they falsely accuse the Team Howard Slate of putting out misleading information? 

2. Does Kittleman still stand by his quote? If yes, why? If not, why not?

3.  Does Kittleman also stand by the position, appearing later in the same article, where he states that, “I am currently a supporter of reducing the restrictions on people who carry concealed weapons.” If yes, why? If not, why not?

4. Will the Kittleman campaign apologize to the voters of Howard County and/or the Team Howard Slate for stating, non-factually, that the quote in the mailer was inaccurate?

 

So there you have it.  The quote stands as yet another example of Senator Kittleman’s more conservative stances.  One that I am certain his campaign would rather not discuss, as it would add to the perception that some of his beliefs are out-of-step with the majority of Howard County voters.  Definitely not a topic they would like to touch during the same week fellow Republican and current GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Hogan received the endorsement of the National Rifle Association.

A JPG version of the original print article can be found here: 

The quote from the corrected article can be found here, on the mailer:

 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Tom Coale and Ellicott City

Justice Louis Brandeis famously wrote that a “state may, if its citizens choose, serve as a laboratory, and try novel social and economic experiments without risk to the rest of the country.”  This outlook is based, among other factors, upon the supposition that state legislators represent a population that is more likely to share common interests related to geographic proximity and other provincial characteristics.   They are intended to be closer to “the people” of the regions and municipalities of a particular state as compared to those representatives elected to serve as a member of the general, or federal, government.

With that in mind, I can’t think of anyone who cares more about, understands better, or will work harder for, the citizenry of Maryland’s House of Delegates District 9B than Tom Coale.

His extensive record of public service is truly impressive.  Beyond that, Coale has a deep, sincere and abiding commitment to Ellicott City.  Having kicked around the political arena for a while, I have been unfortunate enough to meet some office-holders and seekers who were, shall we say, primarily driven by self-interest.  Coale, thankfully, cannot be counted among that number. 

When I first moved here, Tom’s blog (hocorising.com) helped acquaint me with Howard County’s characters and challenges.  It was, and remains, an invaluable resource for someone who wants to understand the who, what, when, where, why and how of our corner of Maryland.  The more I write, the more I appreciate Tom’s erudition and dedication to educating his readership about the goings-on in our community.  It takes time to craft smart, focused posts…and to make them interesting.  The fact that he accomplishes this, consistently, is remarkable.

Having served a stint on Wilde Lake’s Village Board, I gained yet another perspective on the challenges facing those who serve on the Columbia Association Board of Directors.  It is a volunteer position yet it is really, at the very least, a part-time job.  And it is not a sinecure.  Tom dove into it, did the hard work, took some principled stands, and left his mark.  That, my dear readers, is the textbook example of leadership.

So now District 9B, as a single-member district in the House of Delegates, has the opportunity to send one Delegate to Annapolis to work on their behalf.  This person should be someone who is effective, knowledgeable, can get things accomplished and who is not an ideologue.  From my perspective, of the two candidates seeking the office, Tom Coale, with his pragmatic focus on addressing concrete problems (such as combating flooding in Ellicott City) seems to be the better positioned to deliver for the District.

Granted, I am a District 12 resident.  I already have great choices on Election Day.  That said, if you believe, as I do, that our General Assembly needs more smart and serious legislators…and if you are a 9B resident, I hope you cast your ballot for Tom Coale.  He would be good for Howard County and for our great laboratory, the State of Maryland.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Five/Seven/Five - Distilling Narratives for Time-Pressed Readers

Progressive Values
Experienced Leadership
We Win with Watson

Next up...limericks???

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Reviewing Two Resumes

For the sake of today’s entry, let us re-conceptualize the campaign season as an extended job interview process.  Albeit one with slightly more hand shaking, parade marching and door knocking compared to the amount of each undertaken by your average applicant for a corporate gig.

Howard County has the opportunity to hire a new County Executive this year.  With that in mind, the electorate – as the hiring authority – may wish to consider one question above all others:  “Of the two candidates for the position, who is best equipped to move Howard County forward over the next four years?”

In my estimation, the answer is Courtney Watson.  Here is why:

1) Her background is much stronger for the County Executive position. 

Given the specific responsibilities of the office, her experience on the Board of Education and her long – and ongoing – service on the County Council have provided her with the expertise that Howard County needs when Ken Ulman leaves the post.  It is my belief that her knowledge of, and involvement with, the issues and solutions that directly impact the lives of Howard County citizens are considerably more extensive compared to her opponent, Senator Allan Kittleman.  I am not calling the Senator a slouch.  I am simply articulating my perspective that Watson’s record of relevant accomplishments is quite impressive.  Our schools and our county are widely respected, and that isn’t by accident.  It takes brainpower, hard work and resolve.  Watson has all of those attributes.   Of course, one can neither credit – nor blame – the state of the County on any one individual.  But when it comes time for our next County Executive to sit at the table, tackling serious challenges with community members, business owners, government officials, and others, I have a great deal of confidence in Watson’s ability to find solutions that improve our quality of life in Howard County. 

2) Her vision for the County is thoughtful and well attuned to the needs of our residents. 

I have read through both of their platforms.  Watson’s successes and proposals underscore her readiness for the County Executive post.  For example, education is an enormously important matter, and Watson’s ideas on enhanced technology utilization in the schools, support for an International Baccalaureate program, and combatting funding inequities are bold yet realistic…and demonstrate that she fully understands the need to address current challenges while keeping an eye on future. 

By comparison (since competitive elections, by their nature, compel them), Kittleman articulates some decent suggestions.  However, I wonder about his ability to accomplish what he says he wants to achieve.  I think Watson is better positioned to turn her ideas into actual programs and services that benefit Howard County residents.  Moreover, he champions a couple of activities on his website that strike me as being a little…off.  For example, he mentions his sponsorship of “Right to Work” legislation.  I can see that playing better in other parts of Maryland, but not so much in Howard County.    

Winding back to the original metaphor, I believe Watson delivers a better answer to the key question, “If hired, what do you want to accomplish?”  If I had to grade their replies to that query based on the body of work presented thus far, I would likely assign Kittleman a B or B- with Watson receiving an A (sorry, I don’t give out A+s). 

And this is Howard County…why not choose excellent when excellent is an option? 

So, I would extend the job offer to Ms. Watson via my vote for her for County Executive.  It is my hope that a majority of Howard County voters will do likewise. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

"There's talk on the street; it sounds so familiar..."

One of the many, many reasons why I opted against running in HD 12 was because I believed, correctly, that I was too new to Howard County.  Having moved here in early 2011, how could I represent the people when I was not of the community?

It has been attempted before, of course.  One example leaps to mind. Back in 1992, a businessman from New York named Sandy Pensler parachuted into Michigan to run for a congressional seat. He was loaded but had little to no connection to the district.  So he cuts a TV ad, produced by a well-respected GOP media operative, showing him jogging around Lansing in a Michigan State University sweatshirt. Go Green.

The response ad by his opponent, who won the primary, was simple and devastating.  It featured a black and white, slow-motion clip of the original spot, with a voiceover that intoned, “Nice sweatshirt, Sandy.  Is it new?” The carpetbagger stigma stuck and Mr. Pensler never recovered.  I heard the U-Haul was back at his apartment before the vote was certified.

Which brings me to the candidacy of one Kevin Forrest Schmidt.

Now, as a Democrat and friend of Jon Weinstein, I am not a disinterested party.  There are several reasons why I would cast my ballot for Jon, if I resided in the First District.  Among them is his long history of community involvement.   Compare that with Mr. Schmidt, who apparently moved to Ellicott City in the 2008 – 2009 time-frame and whose record of HoCo civic engagement appears far less extensive.

  

It is wonderful that most Howard County residents have a welcoming attitude toward newcomers.  That said, it is another matter entirely to elect such individuals to public office.

I am not saying that it can’t or shouldn’t be done, but, fair or not, questions are raised.  How well does this person really know Howard County?  How well do his or her potential constituents know this person?  How can this individual effectively serve the district?  Do they understand the values and interests of their new neighbors? Are they running because they see an opportunity or because they truly want to serve and accomplish something…and even if the latter is the case, why now?  Why not wait until their roots stretch deeper?  

Just a few thoughts going into the homestretch.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Prophylactic Measures

Knowing only what has been reported in the traditional media, I am in no position to say who, if anyone, is right or wrong in this emerging controversy.

 

This blog deals with politics and perceptions, in case you haven’t noticed. So viewing the matter from such a brutal and cynical perspective, here is what comes to mind:

1.  This isn’t a one or two day story. The Vaillancourt campaign is going to have to contend with some truly bad headlines between now and Election Day.  Stating that you are going to review legal options is just one step; there needs to be a broader and cohesive communications strategy. Even for a non-partisan, down-ballot race such as this, she is going to need to formulate and articulate a simple narrative regarding her comments and actions that makes sense to the average voter.  If she can’t, there is a pathway to a fifth place finish. 

2. Regarding those who voted in favor of the Resolution of Disappointment, the optics appear a little bit sketchy.  Again, I am not going to get into the merits of the Board’s moves.  I just know that some find it interesting that the Board reprimanded Vaillancourt roughly 45 days prior to the primary election (regarding “breaching the confidentiality of closed sessions”) and now 40 days before the general election on this new matter.  Yes, issues come up when they arise.  I am not saying that the other Board members are engaging in any shenanigans, but – based on the timing alone - they are providing grist for the mill for those who believe that their actions are, at least in part, politically motivated.  

3. I have a different perspective than my friend, the Sage of Oakland Mills, MM who argues that Ms. Vaillancourt should take the sensitivity training.    

From a realpolitik view, if she agreed to do so (between now and Election Day), it would appear to be an admission that she crossed a line with her comments. A very risky move.

I concur with the implications of the comment made by Long Reach’s answer to Alan Dershowitz in the aforementioned blog post:  that all Board Members “should have sexual harassment training annually.”   Perhaps the Board can agree to review relevant policies and procedures; of course I am guessing that this might have to wait until after November 4.

Coming soon: another post about timing.  And this one has nothing to do with the Board of Education!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

HoCo BoE & HCEA (On Apples and Ballots)

A follow-up on my post from yesterday:

There is enough general mishegas going on in and around the Howard County Public School System (HCPSS to you and me) that could lead to a major upheaval in the Board of Education race. Given the players and issues involved, there is sufficient atmospheric volatility that might generate some unexpected outcomes.    

Nevertheless, I would still wager that both incumbents seeking another term in office will be re-elected.  Perhaps one of them ends up in third place but, as of this writing, Vaillancourt and French are good bets for a one-two finish in November.

Regarding the impact of the Howard County Education Association (HCEA) on the HoCo BoE primary election results….well, I thought I already wrote about this.  A long-time reader asked me about it and I was 95% certain it was covered in another post.  So I searched for it online, nothing. 

I have a folder containing about a dozen half-written posts…just random paragraphs sitting around, waiting to be shaped into something, or discarded entirely.  As it turns out, the BoE/Apple Ballot text was right there. So let me combine that (brief) review with the precinct analysis I conducted recently.

In short, the HCEA endorsement of Altwerger, Beams, Furman and Vaillancourt were significant vote drivers, and were of particular importance for the first three names in this sentence.  Given the amount (of dollars) spent on the race by the candidates themselves (negligible), the HCEA money and muscle that went to work for the four constituted a major voter information delivery vehicle. And it produced.

Let us look at this another way.  If you collapse all of the candidate votes (at the polls, absentee, provisional and early voting center) into one bucket and divide it by the number of precincts in Howard County (118), you end up with the following votes in this artificially constructed “average” precinct:

1.     Vaillancourt   134 (HCEA backed)(Incumbent)

2.     French             124 (Incumbent)

3.   Altwerger       108 (HCEA backed)

4.   Furman          101 (HCEA backed)

____________________________________Top Four Vote-Getters

5.   Beams              85 (HCEA backed)

6.   O’Connor         72

7.   Dyer                  65

8.   Smith                57

____________________________________Top Eight Advance to the General Election

9.   Kornreich         54

10. Butler                50    

11. Evans Arthurs 49    

12. Andrews           49

13. Baek                   47

                                   

As always, this is strictly my opinion.  While I don’t have any poll data to verify the following hypothesis, I believe – without the HCEA endorsement – that Vaillancourt would have placed second in the June election.  Her 10-vote per precinct victory margin over French – who is practically a Howard County institution - was supplied by her inclusion on the Apple Ballot. 

And while Altwerger, Furman and Beams are known in certain communities, none of them have the name ID enjoyed by the two incumbents on the ballot; not amongst the primary electorate as a whole.  Dyer is probably better known than those three, even if his Fav/Unfav nets out break-even or negative (again, I have no current data on this). So while they all have strengths, I am inclined to believe that their respective third, fourth and fifth place finishes were driven, in large measure, by the energetic support of the HCEA.

So let future candidates for the BoE – incumbents and challengers alike – take note of that.

Will I be writing about the Kittleman ad blitz soon? Oh yes.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

HoCo Board of Education Primary Election - By the Numbers

Warning:  the author of this blog used to peruse the Baseball Encyclopedia, a massive tome, in the early and mid 80s in a quest to learn #allstats (with apologies to a one “M.G.” for using a derivative of her famous hashtag).

So prepare yourself for a cavalcade…a cavalcade of numbers!

As you are no doubt aware, Cindy Vaillancourt secured the greatest number of votes in the June primary election (15,851), followed by Sandie French (14,688), Bess Altwerger (12,733), and Dan Furman (11,880). 

In this election cycle, the top four vote getters in the general election will be elected to four-year terms on the Howard County Board of Education.   So finishing in the top four in November is a Big Deal.  [Note: In presidential election years (since 2008 anyway), only the top three candidates are elected to the Board. The joys of staggered terms of office].

But enough of these Captain Exposition digressions, let us return to the recent primary official returns…Dr. Zaneb Beams (10,042), Christine O’Connor (8,477), Allen Dyer (7,724), and Mike Smith (6,730) secured the fifth through the eighth positions and will also advance to the general election ballot.

Looking at the precincts:

Vaillancourt placed first in 71 of the 118 Howard County precincts (excluding the absentee, provisional and early voting center votes). Sandie French won in 42, followed by Bess Altwerger (3), Christine O’Connor (3), and Dan Furman (1).  In case you were counting, and I know you were, there were ties for first-place in two precincts.

Vaillancourt and French also finished second in 39 precincts apiece.  Altwerger was second in 28, followed by Furman (7), O’Connor (6), Dyer (2), Olga Butler (1), Leslie Kornreich (1) and Smith (1).

So what does this all mean?  Understanding that the general election electorate tends to be substantially larger than (and significantly different from) a primary election electorate, it tells us a couple of things:

Barring a major shake-up, it is likely that the two incumbents seeking re-election (Vaillancourt and French) will be successful.  In 2006, Frank Aquino and Sandie French were the top two vote getters, respectively, in the primary election.  They maintained those positions in the general election.  The same outcome occurred in 2008 with Janet Siddiqui and Ellen Flynn Giles.  In 2010, French secured the greatest number of votes in the primary election, followed by Aquino.  They flipped positions in the general, with Aquino obtaining a plurality with a 1,005-vote margin over French.  The earlier 1-2 pattern was revisited with Siddiqui placing first and Ann DeLacy second in both the primary and general 2012 elections. 

So while both Vaillancourt and French need to expand their bases, considerably, in order to return for another term, recent history would seem to indicate they are better positioned for a top-four finish than the other six candidates.

As non-incumbents, Altwerger (3^rd) and Furman (4^th) will have to hustle to maintain their in-the-money positions.

Third place finishers in recent Board of Education primary elections have a mixed track record.  Winners include Patricia Gordon (third in both the primary and general election in 2006) and Giles (also third in both elections in 2012).  Both were also incumbents.  On the other hand, challenger Diane Butler placed third in the 2008 primary…only to finish fourth (behind Dyer) and thus failed in her election bid.  Another then challenger and now BoE nominee Larry Walker secured the third position in the 2010 primary, but finished eighth in the general election. 

Those who place fourth in “modern era” BoE primaries have (generally) fared well.  The roster of the victorious includes Lawrence Cohen (fourth in both the primary and general in 2006), Dyer (fourth in the primary but making the cut-off with a third place finish in 2008), and Brian Meshkin (fourth in the 2010 primary; third in the general election of the same year).  In 2012, Jackie Scott held the fourth position in the primary, but went on to the finish sixth in the general.

Pardon as I slip into editorial mode; but I voted for Beams in the primary and I am inclined to cast a ballot for her in November.  From a geographic perspective, Beams tended to perform consistently.  She finished in the top eight in over 100 precincts but finished no higher than third in any precinct. 

I am also taking a good look at Christine O’Connor’s candidacy.  She has more of an identifiable geographic base, securing first or second place finishes in nine eastern HoCo precincts.  

Both Beams and O’Connor will need to build broader coalitions to have any hope of winning a seat this time around.

I am concerned that Dyer will be able to trade off of his relatively high name identification and wind up finishing fourth, or even third.  This author finds that scenario unpalatable. 

Beyond having an easy-to-pronounce last name and a distinctive affinity for alternative neckwear options, I don’t see Mike Smith placing any higher than seventh, sixth on a freakishly good day.

Looking at those who did not advance to the general election:

Kornreich is entering the realm of frequent (dare I say “perennial?”) candidate although, in all fairness, she came close to eighth place and a ticket to the Big Show.  My thoughts on Corey Andrews and electoral politics are fairly well known.  Tom Baek seems like a good, thoughtful person but I don’t believe he possesses a fantastic candidate skill-set.  Not a criticism, just a personal opinion that he is not a Natural politico.    

I believe that Olga Butler and Maureen Evans Arthurs ran decent campaigns and should consider seeking public office down the road.  

But back to 2014, I project that the real action will be for the third and fourth positions and we are going to see a dogfight involving five candidates for those two slots: Altwerger, Furman, Beams, O’Connor, and Dyer.  With slightly over 100 days to go until Election Day, it will be a delight watching this race evolve.

Now where did I put those encyclopedias?

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Watson - Kittleman and General Election Forum I

From the east, I rolled into the parking lot adjacent to the Owen Brown Interfaith Center, just ahead of what looked like a derecho tumbling in from the west.  The skies, like the two McDonald’s cheeseburgers I ruefully scarfed down for my dinner-in-a-Honda, added to a sense of foreboding.   Would the power go out at my destination, the aforementioned Center that, at that very evening, was hosting the PFLAG-sponsored Howard County Executive Candidate Forum?  Was my last-minute gastronomical choice something I would regret?  Too many questions, too many onions.

Once safely inside the building, I chatted with some friends, old and new, and after hearing about the transcendence of basil ice cream at Baltimore’s Woodberry Kitchen (note: must return there soon), I took my seat.   The Forum, featuring Democratic County Council Member Courtney Watson and Republican State Senator Allan Kittleman, was about to begin.

   

Let’s skip to the key take-away for a moment. Fundamentally, I think both candidates had good nights.   Technically, they both performed at a high level. But this is America and we like winners and losers, victors and vanquished.   Ties are for the World Cup.

So, I thought, if I was a candidate for County Executive, whose evening would I have rather had.  If ties go to the runner, in Howard County, they go to the Democrat.  And I think Watson beat Kittleman by half-a-step, so she would be the winner.  Here is why:

But first, before I get into any specific hits or misses, it is noteworthy that the very first question dealt with development and the Inner Arbor and both candidates voiced support for the Inner Arbor Plan.  According to my hand-written notes, Kittleman said that the Plan would be “a good thing for Howard County” while Watson indicated that she was “excited about the Inner Arbor Plan.”  There you have it, bipartisan support for the Inner Arbor.  Both candidates expressed hope for a productive implementation process moving forward. Let’s hope that everyone is listening on that point.

Rather than do a topic-by-topic summary/analysis, which Amanda Yeager did with her usual skill and panache (the article can be found right here), I will focus on some of the prevailing themes and other notable moments.

Watson’s responses to the moderator’s questions tended to follow a logical progression: respond directly to the query posed, lay out the facts (and figures) as well as the relevant history on the issue, shift to the future by talking about a path forward with specific programs and policy proposals.  Very rational, very efficient.  The message is clear: Watson has a serious command of the issues facing Howard County and the knowledge to work out practical solutions to these challenges.

Kittleman’s replies tended to be broader, with more of an emphasis on a combination of general principles (including “predictability for businesses,” “we need people to have a seat at the table,” and we must “live within our means”) with anecdotal information/mini-vignettes to illustrate/support a larger narrative.  He would frequently pivot to his experience working at both the county and state levels and talk about working across party lines.  Overall, it made for an effective, more story-driven, presentation.

But now we come to the central dilemma facing the Kittleman campaign, in stressing his independence, he is highlighting that from which he is running away – an increasingly conservative Republican Party, a party to which he still belongs, a party that is out-of-touch with the values of many Howard County voters.  To listen to him speak is to hear a voice from the past…a reminder that once-upon-a-time there was a Ford/Rockefeller wing of the GOP.  He states he is running to reclaim the party, but why should the electorate get involved in his realignment efforts? Voters already have a progressive choice in Courtney Watson and the Democratic Party.  Why vote Republican in light of the GOP's platform and priorities?  I don’t believe that Kittleman has a compelling answer to that query, so he triangulates, hoping that his identification with, and advocacy for, certain progressive causes will peel away just enough votes in November. 

Ultimately, I believe Kittleman is asking for voters to take one leap too many, and in the wrong direction.  I understand the frustration he is experiencing with today’s GOP and commend him for wanting to bring the party back from the brink.  But given a choice between a candidate representing a progressive party; and a candidate from a conservative party, who is more likely to be cross-pressured by a right-wing base of supporters, I think the vast majority of Democrats, most independent-minded moderates, and even some Republicans, will choose Courtney Watson.  At least this is where I believe we are headed.  Kittleman has approximately 118 days to shake things up and, personally, I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

Highlights for both candidates:

I thought Watson showed some passion when talking about mental health as a public crisis in “Howard County and beyond.”  The listener came away with the impression that she really wanted to work on this challenge, and that same determination carried over to her response on the next question, which focused on LGBTQ homelessness.

Apparently some in the audience came away with a different perception of Kittleman’s closing remarks.  They thought he sounded too strident, too defensive, and/or talked too much about himself.  I get where they are coming from, but I thought he demonstrated genuine passion (there is that word again) when he discussed equal rights and the importance of those values and his fight to defend such principles (with his support for Maryland’s Question 6 being the focus of his statement).  

I believe the highlights of both candidates elevated the discourse.  Kudos to both.  

  

Question from the mailbox: “So did anyone go negative?”

Not too many elbows were thrown.  Kittleman was the first to venture in what could be described as comparative campaigning.  In response to a question that centered about how best to preserve the character of our communities, in light of development in certain areas, and what would the candidates do in terms of housing options, he basically said that the County’s plan regarding housing “is not working.”

Watson decided to shine the spotlight on some votes that Kittleman took; votes against funding a local public safety training center and against a police helicopter.  Kittleman’s response came across as just a little defensive, just a bit shaky. 

Both statements were well within the bounds of fair play.  No low blows. The exchanges allowed the voters to learn a little more about the two candidates.

Overall, it was a well-organized event that covered a wide range of important issues and those in attendance heard some substantive responses.  Both candidates probably walked away feeling as though they largely accomplished what they set out to achieve. It marked a strong start to the General Election Forum season.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

  

On Brown and the Case for a Maryland Deal

From time to time, a political campaign comes along that features a serious but relatively uninspiring candidate, who is nonetheless supported by citizens who are inspired by his or her candidacy.  As of this writing, unfortunately, Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown falls into that category.

I am offended by those who claim that the Brown/Ulman campaign has been "gutless" (as one columnist recently opined).  They did run a rather small-c conservative effort.  Avoid high risk & high reward.  Three yards and a cloud of dust. Assume Doug Gansler is too flawed and his positioning too conservative to emerge as a palatable alternative; anticipate that Heather Mizeur will generate a great deal of excitement with the Liberals, but no one else. Don't panic.  Don't deviate from the strategy. Let the fundraising, the ad buys and the institutional/organizational support carry the day.

And it did.  Which might tempt someone in the Brown/Ulman orbit to shout out, "Second verse, same as the first!"  And why not?  Surely the battle for the Democratic nomination would be the tougher fight...why expend political capital against a B-tier GOP gubernatorial nominee like Lawrence "Uncle Lar'" Hogan?

The reasons are straightforward.

First, Hogan may be a second-stringer but, as was witnessed across the state in the primary election, odd things can happen in elections with lower voter participation rates.  Historically, general election turnout is considerably lower in mid-Presidential term election years; and it tends to favor the party that does not control the White House.  I don't have the statewide data in front of me...but in Howard County, in recent cycles, turnout has been just north of 80% in presidential elections and 60%-65% in mid-term elections.  Could a national GOP wave elect Hogan? Highly unlikely, but not impossible.  Running a simple, narrowly-focused turn-out-the D base effort probably puts a hard ceiling of 55% on the Brown/Ulman ticket, and increases the dangers of a handful of missteps knocking the campaign further to the left, away from the more independent-minded voters that will constitute a larger percentage of the November 2014 electorate.  

Second, there is a link between election outcomes and the ability to govern effectively.  Lt. Governor Brown, if elected our next Governor, will want a governing mandate.  I know the ticket has a vision for Maryland, a version of it can be found on the campaign site here. That said, I believe the communications effort behind the advancement of said vision (the overarching narrative and the supporting policy proposals) has been...a little too cautious.  This is a time for boldness, send a clear message that the Democratic Party has substantive ideas to improve the lives of working and middle class Americans.   Folks in Annapolis - and beyond - will take note if Lt. Governor Brown obtains 57%+ of the vote in what is presumed to be a decent year for Republicans nationwide.  O'Malley's high-water mark was 56.2%, and Brown won't exceed that percentage playing small ball.

There was a New Deal and a Fair Deal...why not a Maryland Deal?   Package a combination of progressive ideas on economic growth/job creation and education reform with some populist good government proposals and a renewed call for civic engagement and public service (build upon the Compact with Maryland Veterans).  An amalgamation of red meat for the base and policy positions that appeal to the unaffiliated, the post-partisan, and other persuadables who can be convinced that a Hogan Administration in Maryland would be a recipe for the kind of stagnation found in the District.  
 Moreover, a resounding win will better enable Brown to advance his legislative agenda, and better position him (and his running mate Howard County Executive Ken Ulman) for whatever opportunities might present themselves a bit further down the road.  

If nothing else, having Brown and Ulman out on the campaign trail across the State - in Democratic strong-holds, swing districts and even some marginal R precincts - actively and consistently promoting a larger and compelling vision for the state, offering up the perfect measure of Change and Continuity, well, that would be inspiring.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

District 12 - By The Numbers

Digging through the weeds today.  Reading through the unofficial primary election results, looking for anything that local political geeks, such as this author, might find to be of interest.  Bear in mind that these are the unofficial numbers.

[I cited the location of the polling places, in certain instances, to provide an additional layer of geographic specificity…and for future trivia questions for those who delight in the incredibly obscure].

Looking at the overall vote totals in Howard County reported to date (which include 35 of 37 precincts, including 31 physical election-day precincts, one of two absentee vote precincts, zero of one provisional vote precinct, and three early voting center precincts), here is where we stand:

Candidate                  Votes

Lam                             4,719

Hill                              4,454

Ebersole                     2,839

Dongarra                    1,617

Stewart                       1,408

Bailey                          785

McGuirk-Spence        777

Gisriel                         621

Sachs                          486

Cohen                         346

Topline observation: As many observers expected, Lam and Hill crushed in HoCo.  Ebersole’s margin over Dongarra in Howard County enabled him to overcome Dongarra’s lead in Baltimore County.

Among voters who cast their ballot at the polls in Howard County, on Election Day:

Terri Hill and Clarence Lam flat-out dominated Howard County, finishing first or second in all thirty-one precincts.  Lam carried 20 precincts while Hill won 10 precincts.  They tied in one precinct (1-005, the Worthington Elementary School Gym).  

Rebecca Dongarra came close to a second place finish in precinct 1-011 (the Ilchester Elementary School Gym), garnering 34 votes compared to 35 for Lam.

Nick Stewart obtained the third slot in precinct 02-21 (the Northfield Elementary School Cafeteria), but there were few votes reported out of that precinct (a total of 38 votes cast, with Stewart’s name checked on 15 of those ballots compared to 16 for Lam).

As one might expect based on the overall numbers, Eric Ebersole finished third in most precincts, with Dongarra and Stewart obtaining more votes than Ebersole in a handful of precincts, primarily in the eastern part of D12 in Howard County.

Still in Howard County: Lam and Hill also tied with 100 votes apiece on the first absentee vote canvass.  Lam edged Hill for first place among early voters (1,585 to 1,501). Ebersole was third among this early voting population with 970 votes.

Turning to D12 in Baltimore County, with 22 of 25 precincts reporting (including 14 physical election day precincts, eight of eight early voting center precincts, zero of two absentee vote precincts and zero of one provisional vote precincts), here is where we stand:

Candidate                              Votes

Dongarra                                2,027

Ebersole                                 1,490

Stewart                                   1,485

Hill                                          1,472

Lam                                         1,433

McGuirk-Spence                    1,048

Bailey                                      738

Gisriel                                     578

Sachs                                      239

Cohen                                     212

Topline observations:  The race for second place was tight, with the second through fifth place finishers all garnering between 1,433 and 1,490 votes.  Most likely unsurprisingly, relative to the number of votes cast in each county, McGuirk-Spence and Bailey fared better in Baltimore County compared to Howard County.

Starting with those who cast their ballots at the polls on Election Day in Baltimore County:

This is where Rebecca Dongarra ran strongest, capturing a plurality of the vote in five of the 14 precincts.  Nick Stewart also carried five precincts.  Hill placed first in two precincts, with Ebersole and Bailey winning one apiece.

Dongarra won in precincts such as 1-13 (the Hillcrest Elementary School Gym) and 1-14 (the Catonsville High School Gym), winning the former by a decent margin over the second place finisher, Eric Ebersole (by a margin of 263 votes to 189 votes).  She also won in 1-16 (the Charlestown Retirement Community Conference Center), 13-1 (the Maiden Choice School Gym) and 13-4 (the Relay Elementary School Gym). 

Stewart carried 13 – 2 (the Arbutus Fire Hall), 13-3 (the Arbutus Middle School Cafeteria), 13 -5 (the Halethorpe Elementary School Gym), 13 – 6 (the Lansdowne Middle School Cafeteria), and 13-8 (the English Consul Volunteer Fire Department Hall).  He broke into the top three in a couple of the other precincts, most notably a solid second place showing in the aforementioned 13-4.

Hill won 1- 9 (the Banneker Community Center Gym) and 13-7 (the Baltimore Highlands Elementary School Cafeteria).  She finished in the top three in several precincts.

Ebersole won in 1-10 (the Hillcrest Elementary School Cafeteria) by a narrow 217 – 212 margin over Dongarra.  He ran a solid second to Dongarra in 1-13 and 1- 14 (both precincts mentioned above).

Brian Bailey carried 13-9 (the Riverview Elementary School Cafeteria) while finishing second behind Stewart in 13-8. 

Broken out separately from the overall Baltimore County figures reported above, Dongarra placed first in the first absentee vote canvass (51 votes with Lam the second place finisher at 49).  Dongarra also obtained the greatest number of early voting center votes (441 with Lam again placing second with 402, slightly ahead of Ebersole at 399….with Hill (329) and Stewart (294) fourth and fifth, respectively).

So what does this all mean?

If Dongarra gained eight votes, and Ebersole lost eight votes, in each of the 45 physical precincts, Dongarra would be in third place.  Candidate skill-sets and other variables aside, I believe the endorsements by the MSEA (and to a significant but somewhat lesser extent the SEIU) helped propel Ebersole into the top three…and, barring a highly improbable upset, a ticket to Annapolis.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.