Cabal of the Simple-Minded

So I split for Hispaniola for half of a fortnight and I return to find Brown/Ulman up by only six over Hogan/Rutherford.  

I can only assume some as of yet unnamed madness enveloped the Free State while I was roaming the streets of Santo Domingo, searching for an establishment that served high caliber mofongo.  My old friend and current expat, Slats, recommended a spot 18 miles away in Boca Chica – but the roads were far too treacherous and the moon too high in the sky to hazard such a journey. 

But I digress.  The purveyors of Conventional Wisdom, referenced in the title, would have you believe that the Maryland gubernatorial election should be a cakewalk for the Democratic ticket.  “Safe D” they say. 

I still believe that LG Brown will be our next Governor. That said, at this stage of the game, our Dream Team is coming across a bit more Gamble and Hoitz.  For those who recall that film, it worked out in the end but it damn sure wasn’t pretty.

Caveat: I don’t know the particular methodology of the latest aforementioned survey nor have I explored the internals.   This poll could very well be an outlier.  Other, earlier opinion research from June and July shows a Brown lead in the 15% range.  Personally, as of this writing, I feel the lead is in the 10% ballpark.

My larger point is that Republican candidates for Governor can, and have, won in deep-blue states.   Let’s look at some (fairly) recent examples:

In Vermont in 2000, Gore captured 50.6% of the vote, with Nader pulling in another seven percent; then-Governor Bush finished with 40.7%.  Four years later, Kerry secured 58.9% compared to 38.8% for President Bush.  In 2002, Jim Douglas (a Republican) eked out a 45% plurality and won against a Democratic Lieutenant Governor.

Want a better case study?  Sure, how about Massachusetts.  In 2000, Gore carried the state with 59.8% of the vote with Nader obtaining another 6.4%.  Bush? A mere 32.5%.  In 2004, Kerry crushed Bush 61.9% - 36.8%.  In 2002, some Michigan transplant called Mitt defeated the Democratic gubernatorial nominee (the State Treasurer) by a 49.8% - 44.9% margin.  

How about closer to home?  In 2000, Gore won Maryland with 56.5% while Bush managed only 40.3%.  In 2004, the margin tightened a bit – with Kerry only able to win by 13% (55.9% - 42.9%).  Meanwhile, in 2002, GOPer Bobby Haircut beat a Kennedy, also the state LG, with 51.55% of the vote.

Now, 2002 was an odd election cycle – being the first following 9/11.  That said, non-presidential general elections, with lower turnout, can be grim for Democratic office-seekers.

Here is my take on the political realities:

First, many Democrats who did not participate in the primary will vote for the ticket in November.  They just aren’t focused on the race yet.  The challenge is that they need a reason to pay attention and I don’t believe that the Brown/Ulman team is providing a compelling rationale for activation….at least not yet. 

Beyond that, and this applies to a relatively tiny but important slice of the Democratic electorate, there are still some hurt feelings from a bruising primary.  I believe the vast majority of Mizeur and Gansler voters will come home, but some won’t.  I can see a handful from both camps sitting this one out, with perhaps a small percentage of Mizeur voters voting Libertarian while a few Gansler people cross over to vote for Hogan.  Not hordes of voters mind you, but such races can be decided at the margins, by thousands of votes scattered across the state. 

Perhaps Labor Day will witness a spectacular re-unveiling of Brown/Ulman.  That said, it is a little too quiet, even by August standards.  And those who believe that a built-in D advantage ensures their victory would do well to ponder the political fates of Doug Racine, Shannon O’Brien and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.  Brown/Ulman need to consolidate the Democratic base, appeal to Independents and reachable Rs - starting now - otherwise they might be spending more time in La Romana than Annapolis come January.  Slats can hook them up. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

Out and In

Might have been bitten by a brown recluse spider this afternoon.  Or perhaps a particularly malicious dragonfly.  The welt on my back appears to be subsiding, so most likely the latter.

That sort of thing happens when one wanders too close to Nature.  I was striding past the woods near my house, taking a break from a writing assignment that has been (almost) all-consuming.  So I thought I would distribute some literature for some of my favorite candidates for the Democratic Central Committee.  A respite from the infuriating tedium of writer's block.

Although it was sweltering, and the bucket hat intended to cover my sun-burnt forehead wasn't helpful in maintaining a reasonable human body temperature, it felt invigorating to be outside.  The endorphins were in full-force and nothing would stop the forward march of democracy.

I wonder if House Majority Leader Eric Cantor felt a similar sense of progress, of momentum...at the same hour I was walking the streets of Wilde Lake, as he stood hours away from having his political career upended by previously obscure college professor.  Or did he truly sense the approach of the menace?

Low turnout elections can yield odd outcomes.  If recent history is any indicator, the GOP will take away all of the wrong lessons.  Go hard right.  The voices of Un-reason will cry out...Repeal the 16th Amendment!  Unleash Chiang Kai-shek!   How far will they go? Where will it end?

Oh the cycles of life, growth, decay and death.  And in some cases, re-animation.  Not that I am comparing Howard County Board of Education candidate Corey Andrews to a zombie....at least not the classic, shambling undead.  Perhaps the lightning-fast zombies from World War Z.    In any event, his campaign is moving again, according to a "reconsideration" email he released on Tuesday night.  He goes into a bit of detail regarding what motivated him to suspend his campaign...and what led him to announce his intention to un-suspend it.  Nothing earth-shattering and I am sure the Traditional Media will cover it in short order.

Too much? Too little? Too late? Too weird?  Two weeks until we get some answers.

And if I am not around to write about it on Election Day, it was probably the spider.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.