Maryland Gubernatorial Democratic Primary Election Survey Results – April Fool-Free Zone

Disclaimers first:  this was a “fun” poll…it is not based on proportionate-to-probability sampling of the likely electorate.  The findings are not projectable.  Most of the study respondents are probably highly informed/politically engaged individuals who reside in the Greater Howard County Metropolitan Region.  The data collection mechanism was via social media platforms, with my Facebook friends and Twitter followers constituting all, or almost all, of the study participants.  The total N was 40, about the size of 4 or 5 standard focus groups.

With all of the above in mind, that doesn’t mean there weren’t some interesting results…

Question: Looking ahead to the 2018 Maryland Democratic Primary Election for Governor, if that election were being held today, for whom would you vote?

1)    Total number of votes won by Rushern Baker, John Delaney, Kevin Kamenetz, and Dutch Ruppersberger combined?  Zero.  Analysis:  I would have expected at least a smattering of votes for the two County Execs and the two Congressmen, primarily the former three. 

2)    So who “won?”  Former County Executive and LG nominee Ken Ulman (20%).  Analysis:  I intentionally kept this a one question survey, so I didn’t ask where the respondents resided. So, I can’t run crosstabs by such demographics.  That said, this outcome is not surprising.  That also said, it is clear that there is no overwhelming front-runner in this still-evolving and largely “invisible primary.”

3)    Most interesting outcomes:  The strength of Delegate Maggie McIntosh (15%), Senator Rich Madaleno (12.5%), and former president and CEO of the NAACP Ben Jealous (10%).  Analysis:  it stands to reason that the progressive wing of the party has been energized following the 2016 election results and that such candidates would fare well in these early ballot tests.  Full disclosure: my current “favorite(s)” can be found on this short list.

4)    Mild surprise.  Former MD AG Doug Gansler (7.5%).  Analysis: this has to be driven in large measure by Name ID.  Where precisely is the Gansler constituency in today’s Maryland Democratic Party? 

5)    Receiving two votes:  Congressman John Sarbanes (5%).  Analysis: good political name, decent visibility, has sort of a “goo-goo” issue profile among the cognoscenti. Not certain if I see him as the best option to take on Hogan in 2018…but apparently at least two people do.   

6)    One-voters: Current Delegate and former Congressional candidate Joseline Pena-Melnyk and “technology executive and author” Alec Ross (2.5% apiece).  Analysis: it should be noted that one of the write-ins was “anyone but Joseline Pena-Melynk.”  Ouch.  Ross, on paper and as of this writing, profiles as a different sort of candidate…and if he can raise enough $, he could finish in the top three in a primary…with 15% of the vote.  

7)    There were a total of 10 write-ins (25%).  Analysis: normally, I would attribute this relatively high figure to a design flaw in the questionnaire.  But then I saw the names and realized several people were doing wish lists (again, a manifestation of their dissatisfaction with The Establishment, such as it is), some were undecided, and a couple of respondents were just having fun.  There were four serious names, all receiving one vote apiece:  AG Brian Frosh (2.5%), former Congresswoman and U.S. Senate candidate Donna Edwards (2.5%), former Delegate and candidate for Governor Heather Mizeur (2.5%), and Frederick County Executive Jan Gardner (2.5%).  I voted for three of those four candidates in recent cycles, all fine choices. I already mentioned one of the “other” write-ins…which leaves two other names, neither of which I will report here, one “none of the above,” one “undecided,” and one “sigh.”

8)    Oh yes, influential attorney and former chairman of the University of Maryland Board of Regents James Shea, zero votes.  Analysis: welcome to dark-horse country! Hope the exploration is going well.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

The Anatomy of the Problem

Generally speaking, Congressman “Dutch” Ruppersberger is aware of the distinction between his ass and his elbows.  So I will assume that the following comments, lifted from the Indivisible Howard County website (https://www.indivisiblehocomd.org/effective-advocacy/) capture the barest gist of his comments on DJ Trump:

“Ruppersberger believes that there are two issues that directly affect Trump's polling: Russia and tax returns.  Whenever possible we should focus on these issues. It could be through op eds, letters to the editor, social media, marches, etc.”

Only partially true. Look, Trump’s tax returns need to be on the back burner at all times, and Russia should be on a higher flame, front and center.  But, again - and how many times do I need to explain this - voters care most about the impact of issues on themselves, not on the self-referential, inward-looking behaviors of any one individual.

It can’t be about Trump’s tax returns per se, voters already assume that most politicians are on the heavy make.  It has to be that his financial interests run counter to the very people that treat him as a savior…that he will sacrifice them at the altar of avarice so he and his grubby clique can pocket a few extra ducats.  That far from being a champion of the middle and working classes, he will gladly have them pay more in health insurance (a tax increase by any other name), in order to placate the interests of his golfing buddies. 

And on Russia, it can’t be about the sordid weekend games that oligarchs play…it needs to be boiled down to the following:  America’s security is at risk because our President is in bed with Russian neo-fascists.  This will put our young men and women who serve in our armed forces at greater risk as Putin and his cronies take advantage of our comprised Administration to advance their values – which are not our values or the values of our allies – around the world.  That anti-American sentiment will lead to greater strife and more American lives and resources spent in defense of not our national interest, but in the private interests of our “leader” who knows nothing about sacrifice for his country.  His lack of experience and Russian business dealings are not the core of the problem, they open the door to far more serious real-world problems which could impact the well-being of thousands of American families.   

So please, if you are going to persist and resist, always bring it back to John and Jane Q. Citizen.  Don’t limit it to Trump’s personal defects, of which there are many.  Make it about the impact of these shortcomings on the day-to-day lives of Americans.  This is what will assure the fraying of the Trump “coalition.”  Once they get a true sense of the bill, more voters will be able to re-align head and heart, and reject the insanity coming out of this White House.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.