Being fond of parody and political satire from days of yore, I present...The Reagan (1989):
Once upon an Inauguration Day dreary,
while George (HW) Bush pondered weak, but not wimpy,
over America's staggering deficits galore -
While he nodded, nearly napping, suddenly,
there came a tapping,
As of some staff member gently rapping, rapping
at the Oval Office door.
"Tis Dan Quayle," he muttered, "thinking it the
bathroom door,
Only this, and nothing more."
Ah distinctly, he remembered, it was three months ere November
And Mike Dukakis was the ghost of the dying ember
upon the floor.
Eagerly, he feared the morrow, vainly he sought to borrow
From the taxpayers funds (not by taxes) by the score
Yet the promise he had made, "new taxes are no more."
Nameless here, for evermore.
Open here he flung the door, when amazed at who stood before
In there stepped a stately Reagan, as from the olden days
of yore.
Not in the least pleasantry made he, not a
minute stopped or stayed he
But, with the mien of a dictator of Haiti
walked through Bush's office door.
Sat upon his chair, near the chamber door.
Perched, and sat, and nothing more.
Then this stately Californian caused Bush to smile
By his whimsical and fatherly decorum of the countenance
he wore -
"Ronnie, my friend," he said, "surely you
know of my troubles by the score.
Advise me, how do I increase government revenue when
'No new taxes' I swore?"
Quoth the Reagan: "Promise Nevermore."
Startled at the silliness of the reply the actor had spoken
"Ah, Ron, you know that you are President no more
If it weren't for the Twenty-Second Amendment, you would
probably serve two terms more. Yet if I don't lessen
the deficit, four years from now, the voters
would throw me out through the White House door."
Quoth the Reagan: "Tax the poor."
"My image is bad enough," said Bush, "the public
thinks that the Vice President is a moron to the core.
Congress chooses my Flexible Freeze plan to ignore
The Press believes that the 'thousand points of light'
refers to my millionaire friends galore
What do I do?
Tell me, tell me the answers I implore."
Quoth the Reagan not a word
Only a gentle snore.
- Jason Booms, 1989 (English, "5th hour").
*Irony alert: Ten years after this poem was scribbled onto a piece of paper, I worked on Vice President Dan Quayle's Presidential campaign. Life truly does follow some unexpected paths.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Monday, April 14, 2014
A Tale of Two Counties
[Saturday, early afternoon]
I am writing this post from my Eastern Shore Bureau office
(which doubles as a coffee shop) in Princess Anne, Maryland. On the weekends, you can find an
establishment that produces a delectable latte, but don’t count on taking your
first sip until 9:00 am, when the good café opens for business. Those who crave the bean and can’t wait until
that hour either have to settle for a Royal Farms offering or take the lonely
drive up US-13/Ocean Highway to Salisbury, twelve and a half miles to the
north.
Long before Get’n Grounded sold their first scone, former
Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court Samuel Chase hailed from
this area. The U.S. House of
Representatives impeached him, on charges relating to “arbitrary and oppressive
conduct of trials.” [In brass-knuckles Realpolitik
terms, the Jeffersonian Republicans in the House were ill pleased with the
outspoken Chase, who became an ardent Federalist.] Partisanship: same as it ever
was. The good news for him is that he
was acquitted on all counts in the Jeffersonian Republican-controlled
Senate. He remains to this day the only
Supreme Court justice to have been impeached.
Oddly, Princess Anne hasn’t turned this historic curiosity
into a major tourist attraction. This
is the same Samuel Chase who tried to corner the flour market during the Revolutionary
War. The statue sculpts itself.
The population of Princess Anne, the county seat of Somerset
County, is 3,290, which makes it smaller than most Villages in Columbia.
The presence of the University of Maryland Eastern Shore gives the town a somewhat
greater sense of vitality. The total
population of the county is 26,470…about one quarter of the number of Columbia
residents.
Before the aforementioned high-water mark from the 2010 census, the previous
population peak of Somerset County was 26,455…it recorded this tally in
1910. What followed was a decades-long
decline to 18,924 in 1970. The 1980s
witnessed a 22% increase in population, smaller but steady growth in the ‘90s
and ‘00s and a small dip from 2010 to 2012 (a net loss of approximately 217
residents).
So what does it all mean?
While it is a lovely region, I suppose it serves as a cautionary tale on
the dangers of stagnation. There simply
isn’t much “there” here.
Now, there are many, many differences between Howard County
and Somerset County, and both are fine places to “live, work and play.” That said, it is amazing to think that, even
as recently as 1950, the two counties had roughly the same number of residents,
with Somerset being the more populated of the two until that census.
It took bold, dynamic, and forward-looking leadership, from
the private and public sectors, to help Howard County grow into the County that
it is today. It would be a shame if the
plague of negativism and fear of forward movement gripped our communities,
sapping them of the energy to find creative new ways to help maintain a high
quality of life for all of our residents (new-comers and long-timers, young and
old, etc…).
I can’t help but think that Samuel Chase, if he were alive
today, would choose Howard County as his
home. And our grocery stores carry
all the flour he will ever need.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Friday, April 11, 2014
The Forum (Part III) – And the First shall be last.
Dawn. Kowloon. The Walled City. The first rays of sunlight meandered between
the tenement houses and gently alit upon a window looking out upon a caged
balcony. That window…and the figure
talking into a telephone behind it…were visible from the rooftop of the
apartment across the alleyway. The sole human
presence on that rooftop was a sniper, who was too pre-occupied focusing the
sights on his Vapensmia NM149 to notice…
…Is how this post would begin if it were a Robert Ludlum
novel. Alas, it is instead about the
League of Women Voters of Howard County Candidate Forum, specifically the panel
discussion among the six candidates for Howard County Council (District One).
Perhaps it would be better crafted as a Ludlum work. It could be titled The Elkridge Gambit. But such thoughts had not yet entered my
mind as I was scribbling away in that dark auditorium, watching four Democratic
and two Republican candidates sitting onstage behind a rectangular table. Each had the opportunity to deliver very
brief opening and closing statements…and field questions from the Moderator.
Before I launch into a brief analysis of the candidate
performances that specific evening, it should be noted that I, and some friends
of mine, support one of them: Jon Weinstein (D). I have other friends who support another,
Wendy Royalty (D). Regarding the other
two Democratic candidates, I don’t believe I have ever met Dave Grabowski and
my contact with Lisa Markovitz was limited to a brief exchange after the
Forum. I have not made the acquaintance
of the two Republican candidates: Kevin Forrest Schmidt and David Blake Melton.
My interest thus declared, here we go:
I believe Weinstein had the best night. An experienced campaigner, he seemed
comfortable with the format. He delivered answers that provided the audience
members with insights into his perspective on governing: which includes a
recognition of the interdependent nature of multiple issues (education,
economic growth, transportation, etc…) and the importance of working
collaboratively to find “balanced,” thoughtful solutions to the challenges
facing Howard County.
Weinstein is a small businessman who has experience working
with government agencies to promote “efficiency, accountability and
transparency.” He ran a good race in a
tough seat (House District 9A) four year ago and enjoys some residual Name ID
from that effort. I think his small business background, his service in the
U.S. Army Reserves, and his community activism make him an excellent candidate
for the General Election. The First is a
swing district, the only one of the five, and I believe that Weinstein can hold
the Democratic base while pulling in a good number of Independent voters and
perhaps a decent percentage of progressive-minded Republicans. In my opinion, he is Democratic Party’s best
bet to hold the seat and allow Democrats to maintain their 4 to 1 advantage on
the County Council.
Royalty turned in the second best performance of the
evening. Having served as a pollster to
dozens of national, state and local campaigns over the past 24 years, it is
relatively easy to identify those who are new to the campaign trail as a
candidate. Royalty sounded like
a candidate who is still working to find her voice. Her late entry is not helping her (she filed
in February and it appears as though she didn’t begin exploring the possibility
of running for that Council seat until January…according to this article).
Make no mistake; Royalty is qualified to hold the office. One of my higher compliments about someone is
that they are serious, and she is serious.
She had a solid response to the question about support for
the non-profit arts community when she remarked how “non-profits save millions
of taxpayer dollars.” This reinforces
her platform calling for fiscal soundness. She provided thoughtful insights on education
and teacher morale (note: the Howard County Education Association endorsed
Weinstein). She offered up a vision of
greater walkability around, on a better mix of businesses along, Route 40 (I
believe it behooves candidates to spend more time talking about the future than
the past, so this was a plus).
I really wish she chose to run for a different office. She is the kind of candidate I like to
support. She would make a great candidate for the state legislature (frankly
her public policy background seems better suited for Annapolis) or a fine
countywide candidate for the Board of Education, given her experience with
various education-related organizations.
If Weinstein weren’t running, I would be advocating for her nomination in
June and election in November. But that’s the problem, he is. I think he brings
a unique skill-set and perspective to the Council. Moreover, I believe
Weinstein, not Royalty, is the candidate best positioned to hold the Council
seat in what could be a tough election cycle for the Democratic Party
nationally.
Markovitz offers a different vision of Howard County. Frankly, I had a tough time hearing her. Perhaps it was the acoustics of the
auditorium or the placement of the microphone but I missed out on approximately
20% of what she said, so I had to visit her website to fill in some blanks. I
am not a particular fan of the organizations with which she is affiliated. She has a Weltanschauung
regarding land use planning, but one that seems out of step with most of the
other Council members. Is she qualified?
Probably. But she seems like the kind of
candidate who, if elected, might adopt obstructionist tactics. Ultimately, I don't think such a worldview or
approach is beneficial for District One or the County as a whole.
One of Grabowski’s rationales for running seems to be that
this represents the next logical step in his community involvement. That is a terrible reason to seek public
office. It sounds more than a little self-involved. As a message, it doesn’t say anything about
what he would do, if elected, for the citizenry of the First. Over the course of the forum, he proceeded to
sketch out something resembling a nascent platform, which is not encouraging
since he has been in the race since June 2013, so he has had plenty of time to
develop a more compelling and coherent rationale for his candidacy. Is he qualified? On paper, most likely. In reality? He seems more public access than prime
time.
In the interest of wrapping this long post up, I am not going to spend
much time talking about the two Republican candidates: Schmidt and Melton. Of the two, the former is stronger than the
latter and will probably emerge as the Republican nominee. Could either win? It would take a certain confluence of events (heavy
GOP turnout combined with light Democratic turnout in the First and/or the
nomination of a weak Democratic candidate).
That said, demographics and party affiliation numbers give the
Republican a fair shot at a pick-up.
Next up…a return to Kowloon?
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
The Forum (Part Two) - A County in Bloom
One of the recurring themes at the League of Women Voters of Howard County's candidate forum was how best to manage growth.
Having conducted research on behalf of economic development organizations in regions that are trying to rebound after years of decline, I know of many municipal and county officials who would love to swap their problems for ours.
I've spoken with residents in areas facing truly tough times: dwindling populations, tighter budgets, higher crime rates, crumbling roads, major employers shutting down or cutting back...leading to diminished job opportunities. They love their communities too, but many are debating the wisdom of staying. They want to be part of a turn-around story but they have kids to raise or they simply want to be able to walk around their neighborhood without tensing up when they hear footfalls on the sidewalk behind them.
They want a quality of life similar to what we have in Howard County.
So the questions posed to the County Executive candidates dealt with such matters as the impact of growth on transportation and our infrastructure, on our school system, on housing.
[Before I go any further, I feel the need to disclose that I support Courtney Watson for County Executive. So if you are expecting a consistently impartial, non-partisan analysis, you are in the wrong place.]
But back to the thread.
First, the County Executive race. Strictly from the vantage point of performance: both County Council member Watson and State Senator Allan Kittleman did well. I would have been stunned otherwise. Both are smart, capable public officials.
It really comes down to who has the best experience for the position and best vision for the County. This is where Watson's service as a member of the County Board of Education is hugely important. Howard County public schools have a reputation for excellence and there is a concern that growth will put pressures on our education system. As the Republican candidates for County Council (District One) noted during their panel discussion, our schools attract families and businesses, this drives economic growth and helps create the highly desirable communities that we have in Howard County. Thus, having the in-depth understanding that Watson possesses on educational matters is an incredibly important attribute and a key point of differentiation between her and Senator Kittleman.
Moreover, when given the opportunity to make closing statements, Sen. Kittleman chose to talk about his father's work on civil rights, which was both commendable and courageous. Again, putting on my political consultant hat, voters generally prefer to hear about the future than the past. Tell us what you plan on doing. So when Watson spoke about keeping Howard County a "great place to live, work and play" and how she was poised to "help solve the challenges of the future" - I believe her forward-looking orientation is more aligned with voter concerns. Kittleman should have pivoted from talking about the past to his vision for the future, but he did not do so. At least I don't see anything like that in my notes.
I really wanted to cover the County Council - District One discussion in this post, but it looks like we are going to have a trilogy.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Having conducted research on behalf of economic development organizations in regions that are trying to rebound after years of decline, I know of many municipal and county officials who would love to swap their problems for ours.
I've spoken with residents in areas facing truly tough times: dwindling populations, tighter budgets, higher crime rates, crumbling roads, major employers shutting down or cutting back...leading to diminished job opportunities. They love their communities too, but many are debating the wisdom of staying. They want to be part of a turn-around story but they have kids to raise or they simply want to be able to walk around their neighborhood without tensing up when they hear footfalls on the sidewalk behind them.
They want a quality of life similar to what we have in Howard County.
So the questions posed to the County Executive candidates dealt with such matters as the impact of growth on transportation and our infrastructure, on our school system, on housing.
[Before I go any further, I feel the need to disclose that I support Courtney Watson for County Executive. So if you are expecting a consistently impartial, non-partisan analysis, you are in the wrong place.]
But back to the thread.
First, the County Executive race. Strictly from the vantage point of performance: both County Council member Watson and State Senator Allan Kittleman did well. I would have been stunned otherwise. Both are smart, capable public officials.
It really comes down to who has the best experience for the position and best vision for the County. This is where Watson's service as a member of the County Board of Education is hugely important. Howard County public schools have a reputation for excellence and there is a concern that growth will put pressures on our education system. As the Republican candidates for County Council (District One) noted during their panel discussion, our schools attract families and businesses, this drives economic growth and helps create the highly desirable communities that we have in Howard County. Thus, having the in-depth understanding that Watson possesses on educational matters is an incredibly important attribute and a key point of differentiation between her and Senator Kittleman.
Moreover, when given the opportunity to make closing statements, Sen. Kittleman chose to talk about his father's work on civil rights, which was both commendable and courageous. Again, putting on my political consultant hat, voters generally prefer to hear about the future than the past. Tell us what you plan on doing. So when Watson spoke about keeping Howard County a "great place to live, work and play" and how she was poised to "help solve the challenges of the future" - I believe her forward-looking orientation is more aligned with voter concerns. Kittleman should have pivoted from talking about the past to his vision for the future, but he did not do so. At least I don't see anything like that in my notes.
I really wanted to cover the County Council - District One discussion in this post, but it looks like we are going to have a trilogy.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Wednesday, April 9, 2014
The Forum (Part One) - Law and Order
“I've... seen things you people wouldn't believe... Attack
ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched c-beams glitter in the dark
near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those... moments... will be lost in time, like
tears... in... rain. Time... to die...” – Roy Batty, Bladerunner
When you have been in and around
political campaigns long enough, you will have seen some remarkable things. Last night, the c-beams were, at best, glowing dimly at
the Peter and Elizabeth Horowitz Visual and Performing Arts Center on the
campus of Howard Community College.
For at that location, at that time, several public office-holders and
seekers took to the stage for a League of Women Voters of Howard
County-sponsored candidate forum.
I will focus on the highlights and the
lowlights. Moreover, I will discuss
things that voters care about, for better or worse, so I will talk about both
substance and – when necessary – style.
First up were the two Democratic
candidates for State’s Attorney, Howard County: the incumbent Dario Broccolino
and challenger Rich Gibson. The former
focused on discussing specific achievements and a turnaround narrative while
the latter spoke of the importance of community outreach. Frankly, both candidates appeared qualified.
Our Register of Wills, Byron Macfarlane
(D), is running unopposed for re-election.
His brief statement was solid and accessible. He talked about his
efforts to humanize and modernize the office.
He made the work of his rather arcane office sound interesting, which is
not an easy communications task. He is
another very-well qualified public servant.
Four Democratic candidates running for
Judge of the Ophans’ Court came next.
The primary election will winnow the field down to three Democratic
nominees, and they will face off against two Republican candidates in
November. Neither GOP candidate appeared
at the forum. A total of three judges
will be elected for this Court. Two of
the four present at the forum (Anne Dodd and Leslie Smith Turner) are incumbents
while the other two (Nicole Bormel Miller and Shari Lynne Chase) are
challengers.
Oh where to begin, perhaps more
importantly, where to end?
Based solely on performance alone, Anne
Dodd and Leslie Smith Turner finished in the top tier. Judge Dodd was a bit more
polished/comfortable with the format while Judge Turner did well talking about
her priorities, her experience and commitment to public service.
Nicole Bormel Miller is obviously very
smart and is qualified to be a judge on the Orphans’ Court. Putting my political strategist hat on for a
moment, I would counsel her to not talk about her combination of “youth and
experience” as a key point of differentiation.
I am in my 40s and most of the audience members were Baby Boomers or of
an older generation. I don’t think she
won many points with that line.
I can feel my blood pressure spiking as
I begin this paragraph. Although we live
in a relatively free and open society where people with minimal qualifications
can seek public office, based on what I witnessed last night, Shari Lynne Chase
has no business running for Judge of the Orphans’ Court. I did not hear her articulate any legal
credentials. I did hear her utter banal
sentiments about treating people fairly.
Most worrisome, if elected to the office, she seems to want to strike a
balance between her personal notion of a “humanistic” perspective and the
letter of the law. No Ms. Chase, that is
not how judges, or our courts, operate.
In fact, the application of such personal beliefs, in matters of law,
can undermine our system of jurisprudence.
This is why it is important for voters
to pay attention to all of the races, even the down-ballot ones. It would be truly unfortunate for Howard
County for a candidate such as Ms. Chase to be elected simply because of her
easy-to-pronounce name or the placement of her name on the ballot. The Orphans’ Court handles very serious
matters. Ms. Chase is not a serious
candidate and I hope Democratic primary voters understand and remember her lack
of qualifications when they enter the voting booth.
Following the Orphans’ Court
discussion, the three candidates for Howard County Sheriff gathered on the
stage. Rather, two assembled while one fell apart. The two Democratic candidates – current Sheriff
James Fitzgerald and Captain John Newnan, appear qualified to hold the
position. They covered substantive
matters, ranging from collective bargaining to the need for greater diversity
within the Howard County sheriff’s department.
Meanwhile the Republican candidate,
John Francis McMahon, described himself as a retired, reluctant candidate who
admits to being “less qualified” than the others. He said he would not be a captive of “special
interests.” Overall, he seemed a bit less than present for the proceedings. I think that is all that needs to be said.
Coming up…Part Two (County Executive and
County Council races).
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Skulduggery in Oakland Mills?
Subtitle: Open (Village) Covenants...Openly Arrived At
For the record, I am not stating that there was any illegal or otherwise nefarious goings-on involved in the decision by Alex Hekimian to not seek re-election as the Oakland Mills Representative to the Columbia Association Board of Directors, and the...presumably 11th hour... decision of current Oakland Mills Village Board Member Reg Avery to seek said post.
But secretive? Perhaps. Hence the use of the word "skulduggery" and the question mark.
Neither person was under any affirmative duty to disclose their electoral intentions in advance of the filing deadline. Their actions, neither technically nor physically, prevented other candidates from filing for that position.
However, as they say in the public relations business, the optics are bad. Moreover, Mr. Avery's decision to run for another office, the Howard County Council, puts the Columbia Association...specifically the Board of Directors...in an awkward position.
In recent years, the CA Board in general (and certain members of the Board in particular) have adopted "transparency" as a watch-word. A letter to the editor of the Baltimore Sun from April 2013 touts Mr. Hekimian as the candidate of "openness and transparency." [The letter can be found here.]
So it does seem incongruous for such a person - someone committed to such values - to inform another person, privately and shortly before the filing deadline, "Hey, I am not going to run, but why don't you go ahead and put your paperwork in?" Because, from the outside, that looks exactly like what went down.
Would other candidates have run if Mr. Hekimian announced that he was not running for re-election? I am not a resident of Oakland Mills, but I am inclined to believe there would have been a contested race.
At this point, there is no apparent wrong-doing. Even if there was a matter of collusion - which has not yet been proven - well, they played within the rules, right? It might be neither just nor fair but politics is politics. Not exactly what one expects in civic-minded Howard County, but "oh well," right? Or no?
So now Mr. Avery, as the sole candidate for the office, is poised to win election....however....
This brings us to the second major point of contention. Mr. Avery is also a candidate for the Republican nomination for the Howard County Council (Second District). The Columbia Association's Code of Ethics would seem to indicate that Mr. Avery, as a candidate for another office, would have to make a choice: either forgo your campaign for County Council between now and the election/the beginning of the new CA Board term, give up your quest to sit on the Columbia Association Board of Directors this time around, or apply for a waiver that would allow you to be seated. However, that third option doesn't resolve the issue that the Columbia Association's Code of Ethics is intended to prevent: eliminating the possibility of a conflict of interest or the appearance of impropiety.
Mr. Avery's statements regarding the ability of other candidates to seek multiple offices (found in this article) are...disingenuous at best. In those circumstances, the relevant state statutes permitted those candidates to run for two federal offices simultaneously. Here, we have a case where the Columbia Association, a nonprofit service corporation that exercises quasi-public functions, seems to have clear rules in place that would prevent a member of the Board from running for another office.
Mr. Avery's interpretation of his attorney's perspective on the matter is not dispositive.
If he continues with his course of action, running for County Council after being elected to the CA Board, he will require the Columbia Association Board of Directors to decide whether or not to seat him...or whether or not to grant him a waiver. Beyond rewarding a decided lack of transparency, how will it look for the Board to ignore its own clear rules in such cases? When others faced a similar situation, they did the right thing and stepped down from the Board.
If elected and seated, how can Mr. Avery - with a straight face - extoll the virtues of transparency given how he arrived at the Board?
The answer seems to be clear: he should either vacate his current candidacy for one position or the other. If he opts to give up his long-shot County Council race, he can take his seat on the CA Board (granted, he got there in a somewhat unseemly manner, but that matter can be addressed in a future election). If he decides to end his candidacy for the CA Board, it appears as though there would need to be a new election for CA Rep from Oakland Mills. Then, Mr. Avery can proceed with his quixotic and ultimately doomed District 2 campaign.
Definite shenanigans, which is too bad, given the energy that needs to be spent solving real issues.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
For the record, I am not stating that there was any illegal or otherwise nefarious goings-on involved in the decision by Alex Hekimian to not seek re-election as the Oakland Mills Representative to the Columbia Association Board of Directors, and the...presumably 11th hour... decision of current Oakland Mills Village Board Member Reg Avery to seek said post.
But secretive? Perhaps. Hence the use of the word "skulduggery" and the question mark.
Neither person was under any affirmative duty to disclose their electoral intentions in advance of the filing deadline. Their actions, neither technically nor physically, prevented other candidates from filing for that position.
However, as they say in the public relations business, the optics are bad. Moreover, Mr. Avery's decision to run for another office, the Howard County Council, puts the Columbia Association...specifically the Board of Directors...in an awkward position.
In recent years, the CA Board in general (and certain members of the Board in particular) have adopted "transparency" as a watch-word. A letter to the editor of the Baltimore Sun from April 2013 touts Mr. Hekimian as the candidate of "openness and transparency." [The letter can be found here.]
So it does seem incongruous for such a person - someone committed to such values - to inform another person, privately and shortly before the filing deadline, "Hey, I am not going to run, but why don't you go ahead and put your paperwork in?" Because, from the outside, that looks exactly like what went down.
Would other candidates have run if Mr. Hekimian announced that he was not running for re-election? I am not a resident of Oakland Mills, but I am inclined to believe there would have been a contested race.
At this point, there is no apparent wrong-doing. Even if there was a matter of collusion - which has not yet been proven - well, they played within the rules, right? It might be neither just nor fair but politics is politics. Not exactly what one expects in civic-minded Howard County, but "oh well," right? Or no?
So now Mr. Avery, as the sole candidate for the office, is poised to win election....however....
This brings us to the second major point of contention. Mr. Avery is also a candidate for the Republican nomination for the Howard County Council (Second District). The Columbia Association's Code of Ethics would seem to indicate that Mr. Avery, as a candidate for another office, would have to make a choice: either forgo your campaign for County Council between now and the election/the beginning of the new CA Board term, give up your quest to sit on the Columbia Association Board of Directors this time around, or apply for a waiver that would allow you to be seated. However, that third option doesn't resolve the issue that the Columbia Association's Code of Ethics is intended to prevent: eliminating the possibility of a conflict of interest or the appearance of impropiety.
Mr. Avery's statements regarding the ability of other candidates to seek multiple offices (found in this article) are...disingenuous at best. In those circumstances, the relevant state statutes permitted those candidates to run for two federal offices simultaneously. Here, we have a case where the Columbia Association, a nonprofit service corporation that exercises quasi-public functions, seems to have clear rules in place that would prevent a member of the Board from running for another office.
Mr. Avery's interpretation of his attorney's perspective on the matter is not dispositive.
If he continues with his course of action, running for County Council after being elected to the CA Board, he will require the Columbia Association Board of Directors to decide whether or not to seat him...or whether or not to grant him a waiver. Beyond rewarding a decided lack of transparency, how will it look for the Board to ignore its own clear rules in such cases? When others faced a similar situation, they did the right thing and stepped down from the Board.
If elected and seated, how can Mr. Avery - with a straight face - extoll the virtues of transparency given how he arrived at the Board?
The answer seems to be clear: he should either vacate his current candidacy for one position or the other. If he opts to give up his long-shot County Council race, he can take his seat on the CA Board (granted, he got there in a somewhat unseemly manner, but that matter can be addressed in a future election). If he decides to end his candidacy for the CA Board, it appears as though there would need to be a new election for CA Rep from Oakland Mills. Then, Mr. Avery can proceed with his quixotic and ultimately doomed District 2 campaign.
Definite shenanigans, which is too bad, given the energy that needs to be spent solving real issues.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Labels:
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Columbia,
Columbia Association,
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Transparency,
Village
Monday, April 7, 2014
Clash of the Titans
Every so often, it is important to get the adrenaline
riled. Otherwise, the tedium sets
in. Once that happens, sloth and
melancholia tend to lurk about, shambling listlessly through dimly lit
alleyways. No sense inviting them over.
For the politically-attuned, General Election Day offers the
prospect of serious action, excitement of the first order. In 2014 anno Domini, in our corner of the
known universe, the marquee countywide general election matchup will be County
Council member Courtney Watson (D) vs. State Senator Allan Kittleman (R) in the
race to succeed the outgoing County Executive, Ken Ulman.
This is our Ali – Frazier.
Even with historical trends favoring the hypothesis that
2014 will be a decent Republican year, Howard County Democrats outnumber
Republicans by more than a 3 to 2 margin (93,354 registered Ds as compared to
56,285 registered Rs).
The Watson campaign, adopting the structures proposed in
Professor Stephen Skowronek’s seminal work, The
Politics Presidents Make, is practicing the politics of Articulation. She is assuming that the current County
Executive’s regime is resilient, and will be viewed as such through November. In which case, affiliating with the current
Administration makes the most sense. Her
campaign’s messaging reflects a theme of continuity (“continuing the progress
in Howard County”). Watson’s promise is
that she will use her expertise to move the County forward, charting her own
course yet following a path not too dissimilar from the one chosen by Ulman.
Her challenge is establishing her own brand in the minds of
voters. At the presidential level,
sometimes those who adopt the politics of articulation (“orthodox-innovators”
to use Skowronek’s descriptor) fare quite well (Theodore Roosevelt) while
others have more difficulty adapting to changing circumstances (George H.W.
Bush). The good news for Watson is that
she is a known entity with her own record of accomplishments and that, as of
this writing, Howard County voters are less likely to be disenchanted with the
state of the county as compared to the state of the state, or the state of the
nation.
Meanwhile, the Kittleman campaign is banking on the politics
of Pre-emption. They recognize that the
party affiliation numbers are not in their favor and are downplaying the
Republican label, at least outside of Western HoCo. Their theme is that Kittleman is a “proven
Independent leader.” He is promoting his support for marriage equality and
reminding voters about his family’s long-standing commitment to civil rights. In short, he is not running as a conservative
Republican. He has little choice. His electoral predicament is not dissimilar from the one facing Nixon in '68, or Clinton in '92...both of whom were candidates belonging to the non-dominant order of their time.
The Kittleman strategy is to work for a heavy Republican
turnout in County Council District Five and hope for a depressed Democratic
turnout countywide. Unfortunately for
his campaign, the one true swing district in the County – Council District One – is
held by one Courtney Watson, who has represented Eastern Howard County on the
Council since 2006. If Kittleman can’t
win in the First, he is, in all probability, doomed.
So who will win? The
smart money is on Courtney Watson. If
Democratic turnout is 60% or higher, Watson should win. 60,000 votes should be sufficient for victory
this time around, and Ulman garnered 66,121 four years ago in his rout of Trent
Kittleman…in what was, nationally, a Republican election cycle. Sixty percent of 93,354 registered Democrats
works out to 56,012 votes…that means that Watson would only need 4,000 votes
among Republicans, unaffiliated and “other” voters to reach the 60,000 figure. Even assuming a two percent under-vote for
that particular office, 60% Democratic turnout overall should elect Watson as
our next County Executive.
With 60% Democratic turnout, Kittleman will have a tough
time cobbling together a coalition that would approach 50% plus one. His hope rests in a Democratic turnout at or
below 50%. If that occurs, and if
Republicans follow the party-line and turn out in sufficient numbers (65%+ GOP turnout;
90% - 10% for the Senator) and if Independents account for approximately 25% of
the electorate and if they break 8 – 5 for Kittleman, and if he pulls a slightly higher percentage of Democratic voters into his column (15%) than Watson does among Republicans
(10%), then yes, Kittleman could emerge with between 50.1% and 51.5%, with 52%
most likely being his hard ceiling.
Notice the number of “ifs” in that paragraph?
Watson’s ceiling is closer to 60%.... and consists of far
fewer ifs. She needs to energize the
base. Turning to elements beyond the
direct control of her campaign, it would be helpful to her efforts if the best Democratic candidates emerged victorious in the swing districts in the June primary elections…nominees
who can motivate Democrats to cast their ballots in the General Election while
also appealing to Independent voters.
Specifically, I am thinking about Howard County Council District One as
well as the State House of Delegates District 9B. I have some
thoughts as to the ideal Democratic nominees for both of those races. I will share them in a later post.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
Labels:
Allan Kittleman,
Campaign,
County Executive,
Courtney Watson,
Democratic,
Election,
Forecasting,
Howard County,
Independent,
Republican,
Scenarios,
Skowronek,
Turnout Model
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