Having seen so many legitimately odd election cycles, I am
reluctant to engage in anything that might be misconstrued as triumphalism. So
I will just say that I am generally pleased with most of the Primary Election
outcomes. A number of my friends won and
I am delighted for them. Most
importantly, I hope those campaigns continue to work both smart and hard as
they refocus their efforts for the General Election.
Some reflections:
On the Governor’s Race:
While the Democratic gubernatorial primary witnessed some
hard fighting, there are no deep-seated ideological schisms that threaten to
tear the party apart between now and November. Sure Mizeur ran to the left of
Brown and Gansler to the right of both of them, but the vast majority of
Democrats could live with any of those three candidates as the party’s nominee
for Governor. While there may be some
personal animosity among some of the candidates, their family members, their
staffers and a few members of the Chattering Class, more than 90% of Maryland Democrats
will rally around the Brown – Ulman ticket.
And more Democrats will turn out for the General Election.
In short, the newly minted GOP nominee for Governor, Larry
Hogan, would be wasting his time targeting disaffected Democrats…there will be
too few of them. Instead, I expect he will run a modified base strategy to
drive up Republican turnout while simultaneously attempting to articulate a
sufficiently palatable platform in an effort to cobble together a large enough
coalition of conservative-leaning and moderate unaffiliated voters
(Independents) to run a competitive campaign.
And hope for a GOP tidal wave of 1994 proportions. That is his plan and, frankly, only shot at
winning. Such a scenario is unlikely to
occur. Expect a Brown-Ulman Administration.
And I believe that Heather Mizeur will be an excellent
candidate for another statewide office in the not-too-distant future. She ran a fantastic campaign, but it just
wasn’t her time this year.
On the AG Race:
I am glad that progressive talent won out despite the
strength of the Cardin brand. Brian
Frosh was clearly the best choice, but the best choices don’t always win (For
more information see: “Fair, world is not”).
On House District 9B:
Tom Coale is a bright, good government policy wonk. He ran a positive, issues-oriented campaign
and won. It was a recurring theme of the
night, at least in Howard County, that such candidates emerged victorious while
many negative campaigns went down in flames.
The GOP nominee for Delegate, Bob Flanagan, is no slouch. This is a true swing district and Coale has
some heavy lifting ahead; but he is clearly the Democrat best positioned – by
background and temperament – to consolidate the base while appealing to
Independents as well as those Republicans who might view Flanagan as being a
bit too paleo.
On Senate District 9:
Ryan Frederic was absolutely correct in highlighting the
differences between himself and Medinger on certain social issues. Now, he can focus on his knowledge of
economic issues and his history as a job creator in what promises to be a
fascinating match-up against Gail Bates.
I don’t know if the 9th Senate District, demographically, can elect a
Democrat (yet)…it might be a cycle or two away, but Frederic gives the party a
decent chance of a pick-up.
On House District 12:
Barring some sort of cataclysmic event, Clarence Lam, Terri
Hill and Eric Ebersole are going to Annapolis.
The first two were close to virtual locks based on their wide support,
deep pockets, and solid campaign skills.
Ebersole, in my mind, started off as a mid-tier
candidate. He hustled, he worked on his
patter, he picked up some serious institutional support and he benefited from a
divided field. So while his mailers were
mediocre, at best, he worked the District. You have to respect that. He ran well in both the Howard and Baltimore
County portions of the district. And, based
on the returns available thus far, Ebersole even out-polled Nick Stewart in
Baltimore County (1,490 – 1,485).
He also banked a considerable number of early votes, which proved quite
important because, among Election Day voters, Rebecca Dongarra placed close
behind Ebersole (2,791 for Dongarra compared to 2,903 for Ebersole).
Looking ahead, I hope Brian Bailey (and Rebecca Dongarra)
can move past some of the personal issues that frankly, got way out of hand and
led to some bone-headed decisions and attacks.
Both have talents and it would be unfortunate to see them squandered.
Stewart, a smart, affable candidate, sent out some great
mailers and had the backing of Jimmy Malone and some other organizations…but
his relative newcomer status hurt his campaign and I don’t think his
positioning as the Pragmatic Choice captured as many hearts and minds as he
hoped it might. Perhaps another office,
another year.
And a big thumbs-up to Adam Sachs for running with integrity
and grit in the face of long odds. I was
hoping he might fare a little better, but when the Mizeur numbers started
coming in, it was clear that an upset would be extremely unlikely.
On House District 13:
The fact that Vanessa Atterbeary is the leading vote-getter
(as of this writing) is a mild surprise.
Perhaps the television spots, in conjunction with her position on the
ballot, vaulted her to first place, ahead of Frank Turner and Shane
Pendergrass. In any event, it was a very
good night for Team 13, with Nayab Siddiqui failing to catch fire, despite (or
perhaps partially because of) his television ads. It will be interesting to see Atterbeary as a
Delegate.
On County Council District 1:
It is no secret that Jon Weinstein is a friend of mine and I
am elated that he won last night, especially in a field with three other
serious candidates (clarification: Dave Grabowski is a serious person who,
inexplicably, did not run a serious campaign).
Seriously.
I think Jon’s business intelligence combined with his
progressive values make him a great fit for District 1, and will serve him well
on the County Council.
Wendy Royalty has a future in elective office, should she
decide to re-enter the arena. Like Rick
Perry in 2012 (and I am guessing some folks won’t love the comparison but bear
with me), she jumped in too late. Meanwhile, Jon
had the benefit of running before and getting an early start this time around,
which led to a more polished performance.
Jon has a legitimate GOP opponent in Kevin Forrest Schmidt.
The partisan breakouts indicate that the First remains a winnable district for
the Republicans, under a particular set of circumstances. Jon’s talents as a campaigner, and Courtney
Watson’s presence on the ballot, should help keep District One in the
Democratic column, but this will be a race to watch.
On the HoCo Democratic Central Committee:
Let’s see…Candace Dodson Reed tied for first place and eight
of the ten members of the Progressive Democratic Central Committee Team
finished in the Top 12. That is a landslide no matter how you slice it. This represents an incredible opportunity for
the Democratic Party in Howard County to build upon the successes of those who
have served well in the past…and to move the Party forward. Looking at those who ran, it would have been
perfect if Agnes Dunson Reid and Charles Bubeck (from the Progressive Team) and
Kimberly Pruim had placed in the top 12.
But overall, it was a very encouraging outcome.
On the Howard County Board of Education:
The results could best be summarized as follows: the power
of incumbency + the slate backed by the teachers.
That accounts for the top five finishers, with Cindy Vaillancourt, who
was first with 15,450 votes (as of this writing), over 1,100 more than the
second place finisher, fellow Board Member Sandra French.
Dr. Zaneb Beams needs to step up her game in order to win a
seat in November. Her fifth place
showing behind the two incumbents as well as Bess Altwerger and Dan Furman
indicate that she has some ground to make up between now and General Election
Day.
I am disappointed but not surprised that Allen Dyer made the
first cut. I was hoping that Olga Butler
and Maureen Evans Arthurs would finish in the top eight (with Dyer and Smith
being the two odd men out, in this Alternate Universe). They bring different skills to the table, but
both Butler and Evans Arthurs would be capable Board of Education members. I hope they choose to run again in the future.
On the Orphans’ Court:
Pleased that Leslie Smith Turner, Anne Dodd, and Nicole
Bormel Miller are the Democratic nominees.
Enough said.
Stay tuned, as more will follow.
