Primary Election Wrap Up

Having seen so many legitimately odd election cycles, I am reluctant to engage in anything that might be misconstrued as triumphalism. So I will just say that I am generally pleased with most of the Primary Election outcomes.  A number of my friends won and I am delighted for them.  Most importantly, I hope those campaigns continue to work both smart and hard as they refocus their efforts for the General Election.

Some reflections:

On the Governor’s Race:

While the Democratic gubernatorial primary witnessed some hard fighting, there are no deep-seated ideological schisms that threaten to tear the party apart between now and November. Sure Mizeur ran to the left of Brown and Gansler to the right of both of them, but the vast majority of Democrats could live with any of those three candidates as the party’s nominee for Governor.  While there may be some personal animosity among some of the candidates, their family members, their staffers and a few members of the Chattering Class, more than 90% of Maryland Democrats will rally around the Brown – Ulman ticket.  And more Democrats will turn out for the General Election. 

In short, the newly minted GOP nominee for Governor, Larry Hogan, would be wasting his time targeting disaffected Democrats…there will be too few of them. Instead, I expect he will run a modified base strategy to drive up Republican turnout while simultaneously attempting to articulate a sufficiently palatable platform in an effort to cobble together a large enough coalition of conservative-leaning and moderate unaffiliated voters (Independents) to run a competitive campaign.  And hope for a GOP tidal wave of 1994 proportions.  That is his plan and, frankly, only shot at winning.  Such a scenario is unlikely to occur.  Expect a Brown-Ulman Administration.  

And I believe that Heather Mizeur will be an excellent candidate for another statewide office in the not-too-distant future.  She ran a fantastic campaign, but it just wasn’t her time this year.

On the AG Race:

I am glad that progressive talent won out despite the strength of the Cardin brand.  Brian Frosh was clearly the best choice, but the best choices don’t always win (For more information see: “Fair, world is not”).

On House District 9B:

Tom Coale is a bright, good government policy wonk.  He ran a positive, issues-oriented campaign and won.  It was a recurring theme of the night, at least in Howard County, that such candidates emerged victorious while many negative campaigns went down in flames.   The GOP nominee for Delegate, Bob Flanagan, is no slouch.  This is a true swing district and Coale has some heavy lifting ahead; but he is clearly the Democrat best positioned – by background and temperament – to consolidate the base while appealing to Independents as well as those Republicans who might view Flanagan as being a bit too paleo.  

On Senate District 9:

Ryan Frederic was absolutely correct in highlighting the differences between himself and Medinger on certain social issues.  Now, he can focus on his knowledge of economic issues and his history as a job creator in what promises to be a fascinating match-up against Gail Bates.  I don’t know if the 9th Senate District, demographically, can elect a Democrat (yet)…it might be a cycle or two away, but Frederic gives the party a decent chance of a pick-up. 

On House District 12:

Barring some sort of cataclysmic event, Clarence Lam, Terri Hill and Eric Ebersole are going to Annapolis.  The first two were close to virtual locks based on their wide support, deep pockets, and solid campaign skills. 

Ebersole, in my mind, started off as a mid-tier candidate.  He hustled, he worked on his patter, he picked up some serious institutional support and he benefited from a divided field.  So while his mailers were mediocre, at best, he worked the District. You have to respect that.  He ran well in both the Howard and Baltimore County portions of the district.  And, based on the returns available thus far, Ebersole even out-polled Nick Stewart in Baltimore County (1,490 – 1,485).   He also banked a considerable number of early votes, which proved quite important because, among Election Day voters, Rebecca Dongarra placed close behind Ebersole (2,791 for Dongarra compared to 2,903 for Ebersole).

Looking ahead, I hope Brian Bailey (and Rebecca Dongarra) can move past some of the personal issues that frankly, got way out of hand and led to some bone-headed decisions and attacks.  Both have talents and it would be unfortunate to see them squandered.

Stewart, a smart, affable candidate, sent out some great mailers and had the backing of Jimmy Malone and some other organizations…but his relative newcomer status hurt his campaign and I don’t think his positioning as the Pragmatic Choice captured as many hearts and minds as he hoped it might.  Perhaps another office, another year.

And a big thumbs-up to Adam Sachs for running with integrity and grit in the face of long odds.  I was hoping he might fare a little better, but when the Mizeur numbers started coming in, it was clear that an upset would be extremely unlikely.    

On House District 13:

The fact that Vanessa Atterbeary is the leading vote-getter (as of this writing) is a mild surprise.  Perhaps the television spots, in conjunction with her position on the ballot, vaulted her to first place, ahead of Frank Turner and Shane Pendergrass.  In any event, it was a very good night for Team 13, with Nayab Siddiqui failing to catch fire, despite (or perhaps partially because of) his television ads.  It will be interesting to see Atterbeary as a Delegate. 

On County Council District 1:

It is no secret that Jon Weinstein is a friend of mine and I am elated that he won last night, especially in a field with three other serious candidates (clarification: Dave Grabowski is a serious person who, inexplicably, did not run a serious campaign).  Seriously.

I think Jon’s business intelligence combined with his progressive values make him a great fit for District 1, and will serve him well on the County Council.

Wendy Royalty has a future in elective office, should she decide to re-enter the arena.  Like Rick Perry in 2012 (and I am guessing some folks won’t love the comparison but bear with me), she jumped in too late.  Meanwhile, Jon had the benefit of running before and getting an early start this time around, which led to a more polished performance. 

Jon has a legitimate GOP opponent in Kevin Forrest Schmidt. The partisan breakouts indicate that the First remains a winnable district for the Republicans, under a particular set of circumstances.  Jon’s talents as a campaigner, and Courtney Watson’s presence on the ballot, should help keep District One in the Democratic column, but this will be a race to watch.

On the HoCo Democratic Central Committee:

Let’s see…Candace Dodson Reed tied for first place and eight of the ten members of the Progressive Democratic Central Committee Team finished in the Top 12. That is a landslide no matter how you slice it.  This represents an incredible opportunity for the Democratic Party in Howard County to build upon the successes of those who have served well in the past…and to move the Party forward.  Looking at those who ran, it would have been perfect if Agnes Dunson Reid and Charles Bubeck (from the Progressive Team) and Kimberly Pruim had placed in the top 12.  But overall, it was a very encouraging outcome.

On the Howard County Board of Education:

The results could best be summarized as follows: the power of incumbency + the slate backed by the teachers.  That accounts for the top five finishers, with Cindy Vaillancourt, who was first with 15,450 votes (as of this writing), over 1,100 more than the second place finisher, fellow Board Member Sandra French.

Dr. Zaneb Beams needs to step up her game in order to win a seat in November.  Her fifth place showing behind the two incumbents as well as Bess Altwerger and Dan Furman indicate that she has some ground to make up between now and General Election Day.

I am disappointed but not surprised that Allen Dyer made the first cut.  I was hoping that Olga Butler and Maureen Evans Arthurs would finish in the top eight (with Dyer and Smith being the two odd men out, in this Alternate Universe).  They bring different skills to the table, but both Butler and Evans Arthurs would be capable Board of Education members.  I hope they choose to run again in the future.

On the Orphans’ Court:

Pleased that Leslie Smith Turner, Anne Dodd, and Nicole Bormel Miller are the Democratic nominees.  Enough said.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

 

  

The Eighth Inning...or What's In a Name?

Supposed to attend a Tigers – Orioles game in Baltimore in a few hours.   Client demands might necessitate a change of plans.  If I do not go, the odds of an unassisted triple play occurring at Camden Yards tonight have improved by 75%.

Went to the League of Women Voters State Legislative Candidate Forum yesterday evening.  Could only stick around for Districts 9 and 12.  Will have to catch D13 on television or online. 

At this late stage of the primary campaign, fighting off forum fatigue is a tough challenge.  The mind is looking to express itself in original ways, which is not always the smartest thing to do. 

This manifests itself in a couple of ways.  In this case of this author, the temptation to engage in boredom-alleviating mischief making was strong.  The forum allowed audience members to write and submit questions for possible inclusion in the proceedings…with the moderator and/or other LWV officials deciding what question would make the cut and be asked of the candidates.

During the District 9A Republican panel, I had the question framed in my head.  I knew an obvious set-up wouldn’t get past the gatekeepers…but something disguised might.  So this is what I came up with:

“A transportation question: given Howard County’s proximity to several major airports, do you favor or oppose the appropriation of funds to measure the impact of chemtrails on our local residents and agricultural products?”*

* (If you don’t know what chemtrails are, you clearly aren’t spending enough time watching conspiracy theory videos on YouTube).

But I didn’t want to be accused of making a mockery of the event, so I showed some restraint and didn’t pass the question along. Although it would have been entertaining seeing how far and how fast the assembled Republicans would sprint to the right.  Someone must protect the Patriots from the menace that rains down upon us! My money was on Christopher Eric Bouchat as the one most likely to take that question and run with it, with Frank Mirabile a close second.   Side note: Bouchat wore that black shirt/red tie combo like a champ.

  

You could tell by looking at the faces of the candidates that most would rather be elsewhere.  Either knocking on doors and talking with voters, reading, wasting their money devising God-awful terrible negative direct mail pieces, bunker prepping, or a host of other activities.  Some seemed to enjoy the experience, while others wore forced grins…if they bothered with smiles at all.

Branding and message disciple are important.  At this point, most of the candidates – to one extent or another – have a well-refined pitch and thoughtful, well-practiced answers to a variety of policy (and other) questions.  Honing and repeating a strong message and building name recognition are important.  But it leads to some unintentionally funny moments.

For example, because the candidates were speaking to the cameras, not knowing if the audience would see their paper nameplate on screen, many of them prefaced or ended their introductions and concluding remarks by stating their name…sometimes more than once.  In several cases, the candidates took the opportunity to repeat their name at the beginning of their responses to each of the questions (for the District 12 candidates, each answered six questions).  Yes Clarence, I am looking at you.

Which is exactly what you are supposed to do.  That said, by the fourth or fifth question, I kept wanting a candidate to mix it up.  Break out with a, “I am Keyser Soze,” or perhaps even an off-hand, “Tyler Durden” before launching into their 30-seconds on fracking.  Of course they would be ripped apart for showing a subversive sense of humor, which is unfortunate.

Big takeaways in the races with contested primaries: 

Tom Coale continues to show why he is the best choice in 9B.  He focuses on tackling serious challenges and working to improve the quality of life in Ellicott City.  Meanwhile his opponent, off-stage, appears to spend his energies launching smears….and I guess he didn’t think it wise to repeat his attacks in-person/on-camera.  Interesting.

As I have noted earlier, I think Ryan Frederic would be a great Senate nominee in District 9, but he needs to win the primary first.  He needs to make it clear that he is the only pro-choice candidate in the field…and I believe the only pro-marriage equality candidate as well.  One could infer his stances on those issues when he rattled off his endorsements, but he needs to be comparative and he needs to make those positions front and center. Now.

The hard-right is well-represented in the GOP primary in 9A.  If the Republicans continue running candidates like that, Democrats are going to make gains in Western Howard County…sooner than later.  The two Democratic candidates: Walter Carson and James Ward Morrow, seem like decent, respectable choices.  Carson’s monologue meandered a bit…I have seen him turn in better speaking performances. 

I have written extensively about the legion running in the 12^th House District.  As a group, they are much better communicators than they were just a few short months ago.  Strictly from a professional perspective, it is encouraging to see that kind of maturation as the candidates grow more experienced, more comfortable.

Of course Jay Fred Cohen was a no-show.  In substantive terms, that might have been the case had he occupied a chair on the stage last night… but writing that seems mean-spirited.  I just haven’t seen a legitimate rationale for his candidacy.

There were mostly thoughtful answers provided to a range of questions dealing with transportation, the business-friendliness of Maryland and other priorities and issues.  Only one clear punch was thrown during this part of the forum; it occurred when Rebecca Dongarra referred to the two candidates who are new to the district.  She did not name them, but that information is easy enough to figure out.  More of a sharp elbow I suppose.

But this post is running long and the hour is getting late.  I will talk about the 13^th soon enough. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Promise in the Ninth

Last night, I was bombing down Centennial Lane at a rate of speed that would be considered inoffensive to all but the most by-the-book Maryland State Troopers.  A perfect early evening for driving…yet something was out of sync. Here it was, mid-seguing-into-late April, yet it felt autumnal with the chill biting through the air.  The newly installed candidate yard signs added to the early October-vibe that permeated the scene. 

The atmospherics of the election calendar brought me back to present moment.  It was that sense of promise; a feeling that is abundant this time of year, that convinced me that the bittersweet landscape of the fall was months away…that Yeats’ “nine-and-fifty swans” had not yet landed on a cold, leaf-strewn lake.

Promise is a good starting point for a discussion of Ryan Frederic’s State Senate campaign (Maryland – District Nine). 

I had not met him previously, but have some friends who spoke highly of him.  So I took the long, harrowing trip from Wilde Lake (“The Land of Dreams”) to the Howard County Conservancy in Woodstock, Maryland…the gateway to Western Howard County.

Gathered there, in the Conservancy’s Gudelsky Center, were a few dozen Democrats, ready to get down for a classic meet-and-greet candidate reception.

It is important to note at this point that candidate remarks at such events generally range from dreadful to uninspired.  Too long, too short, too self-involved, too minutiae-centric, too boring…the spectrum of sins is long and oft well-covered.

I was thus pleasantly surprised that Frederic’s stump speech was…quite good.  His presentation was concise and focused. He related his impressive business experience and background in community service to tangible issues that voters care about (growing the economy, creating jobs, etc…).  In the parlance of the political industry, he pivoted very well from biographical information to voter concerns and policy positions.  Although a new candidate, he showed a level of seasoning and maturity that is generally only found among those who have served in office for many years.  So that is a big plus.

More importantly, he is the one Democrat running in the primary who embraces – and will fight for – Democratic values.  He is pro-choice; his primary opponent is pro-life.  He is pro-marriage equality; I do not believe his primary opponent is (if I am wrong on this, feel free to comment below).  In Frederic, voters in the 9^th have a genuine progressive with a strong record of job creation.  His Democratic opponent lacks these credentials.

Some say that his primary opponent (Daniel Medinger), as a pro-life Democrat, is better situated to defeat a pro-life Republican (Gail Bates) in the fall.  No.  Pro-choice Republicans, faced with making a decision between two pro-life candidates, are highly likely to stay with their party.  Pro-choice Republicans, given the option of voting for a Pro-life Republican and a Pro-choice Democrat, are at least cross-pressured.  Yes, Republicans in Western Howard County tend to be conservative, but if Frederic picks up a respectable percentage of pro-choice and/or moderate Republicans – and manages to capture a 6 – 5 majority among unaffiliated voters (aka Independents), he has a shot at putting together a winning coalition. A much better shot than Medinger.

Combine that with his demonstrated ability to fund a campaign, you have to say that Ryan Frederic has promise. 

Considering all of these factors together, I am endorsing Frederic for the Democratic nomination for the Ninth Senate District.

With the election of candidates in the 9^th such as Frederic and Tom Coale (in 9B), voters can send a new generation of thoughtful, energetic progressives to represent us in Annapolis.  And that is good news in any season. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

You Can Find Me in the Club

Some thoughts on the recent Columbia Democratic Club’s candidate endorsement meeting, but first a quick response to a reader:

“Why Are You Writing Self-Indulgent Claptrap?”

Excellent question. Let us re-visit our First Principles.

This blog is about change and continuity… the indefatigable reality of impermanence.  Politics is a recurring thread but, fundamentally, the blog is an exploration of evolving perceptions.  It is a discussion of thoughts at a certain time and place…of choices, musings and [yes] considerations.

I have to be willing to set the torch to it…to “keep, and pass, and turn again” as Emerson might say. Venture off-topic.  Alienate some readers.  If that means non-political subject matter, or writing in verse from time-to-time, then that is the stone-cold deal.

With that preamble out of the way, I have some topline impressions of the gathering.  [Select races only].

On the State Attorney General race:  I was pleased that all three Democratic candidates showed up to deliver their one-minute pitches. When it came time to tally the votes, State Senator Brian Frosh crushed it, securing a First Ballot endorsement.  Candidly, I haven’t focused on the AG race but I am inclined to support Frosh. Delegate Aisha Braveboy voted against marriage equality in 2012, so that rules her out.  That leaves Delegate Jon Cardin and I have yet to see a compelling reason to vote for him.

On Senate District 9:  I have met neither Ryan Frederic nor Daniel Medinger.  While Medinger captured the CDC endorsement, I have to say that Frederic has an impressive background and would make a fine State Senator.  Although I am not a resident of the Fighting Ninth, I look forward to learning more about these two candidates in the coming weeks.

On House District 9B:  What can I say that hasn’t already been stated, eloquently, by Howard County’s own Marshmallow Man here in this great blog post.

Tom Coale is smart, hard-working, and knows 9B.  He would be an excellent State Delegate and would serve the people of his district quite well.

His primary opponent, Rich Corkran, seems like a decent-enough fellow but his heart doesn’t appear into it.  Until very recently, his campaign website still referred to his 2010 campaign.  His main lit piece is…lackluster and his presentation skills are middling.  Corkran is standing for election while Coale is running for election and that is a very important distinction. I know which candidate I would prefer to represent me in Annapolis.  

I am sure I will write more about this race soon.  For now, suffice to say that I am pleased that Coale received the CDC endorsement.  

District 12.  This is my home district.  I have thoughts on this race.  This will be the subject of a future post.  Note: Terri Hill and Clarence Lam both received the CDC endorsement for this three-member state legislative house district.

District 13.  Delegate Frank Turner was kind enough to hear me out on a government reform issue (here).  Having resided in Kensington in Montgomery County in 2010, I am familiar with Vanessa Atterbeary.  She has great credentials and would be a fine State Delegate. Her one-minute pitch was a little off (she acknowledged that she was nervous).  Sometimes great public policymakers are not natural campaigners.  I look forward to watching this race over the next several weeks.  Note: Delegate Turner and Atterbeary, along with incumbent Delegate Shane Pendergrass, received the CDC endorsement.

Democratic Central Committee (12 candidates are elected every four years)

Any list of Howard County rising stars should have Candace Dodson-Reed’s name at or near the top.  A talented policy wonk with top-flight political acumen, she will do fantastic work helping elect Democrats.

Among the incumbents seeking re-election, Abby Hendrix delivered a very thoughtful and compelling presentation regarding a strategic plan for the County Party.  This is not an easy task in a 60-second statement. In my humble opinion, she should serve another four-year term on the Central Committee.  Ethel Hill also made a very strong case for re-election. I will be voting for her in the gubernatorial primary election.  While I don’t know Deanna Peel as well as some of the other candidates, smart people…people I trust…tell me she is fantastic.  I have met Kim Pruim on a handful of occasions and I am aware of her reputation for solid constituent services work in the Second County Council District.  I am inclined to vote for both Peel and Pruim in June.  A soft-spoken Bill Adams gave a low-key presentation.  He had the tough challenge of representing the Mizeur campaign at the forum, not an easy position in what is considered to be prime Brown/Ulman country.  He put himself out there and I respect that.  I will probably cast my ballot for him.

Among the non-incumbents, beyond Dodson-Reed, a handful of others stood out.  Marcia White made a strong case for her election.  I think she will do great work for the Democratic Party as a Committee member. Kathy Macfarlane, based on my increasingly illegible hand-written scrawl, focused her one-minute presentation on the need for a well-financed operation, the need to “put money in the bank.”  Very sensible.    In contrast to Mr. Adams’ mellow approach, Josh Friedman offered up, in a rather forceful manner, some practical suggestions regarding establishing benchmarks for Democratic volunteerism.  His was the 49^th presentation of the evening, but was probably the most entertaining.  More importantly, his ideas were interesting.  

I believe that works out to my top nine candidates for 12 seats.  I may vote for one, two, or three others but I need to see and learn more before deciding among the remaining candidates for the Central Committee.  As of this writing, Jonathan Branch, Patricia Thomas and Charles Bubeck are the most likely to round out my ballot…but who knows?  Campaigns are fluid.

[Note:  Candace Dodson-Reed, Abby Hendrix, Ethel Hill, Kathy Macfarlane and Jonathan Branch all received the CDC endorsement].

A long post on a rather chilly mid-April Day.  That will do for now.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.