HoCo Executive Survey – Topline Observations

As a pollster/strategic communications counselor, I will probably be writing about survey research frequently this year.  Here are my thoughts on this new HoCo Exec Poll. 

-          If Calvin Ball (D) is down only 3% against Allan Kittleman (R) on an initial head-to-head ballot test, despite Kittleman leading on Name Identification by a whopping 41% margin (87% to presumably approximately 46% based on the data reported), then Ball is quite well-positioned to expand his electoral base.

-          Statistically, they are in a dead heat right now.

-          This poll indicates that Kittleman (at 42%) is far closer to his ceiling than Ball (at 39%).

-          It would have been better to release the results in mid-December.

-          I am not a huge fan of automated phone surveys conducted for political campaigns. I greatly prefer live interviewer studies.  Yes, they are more expensive, but they are worth it, especially if the interviewers are well-trained in data collection methods and best practices.

-          Sean Murphy, HoCo’s answer to Stephen Miller, tried to launch an attack, but he stumbled. Not exactly an A-game message.   Sade was not singing about him, as he is not a Smooth Operator.

-          I would love to see the geographic breakouts.  Assuming the study was conducted proportionate-to-probability, the subsample sizes for that race from each of the Council Districts are large enough to yield statistically significant data, albeit with a high(er) margin of error compared to the overall MoE (4% at the 95% level of confidence).

-         Would be great to see how the 19% Undecided broke out (by ideological affinity, by partisan affiliation, by geography, by gender, by race, by age, and by voting propensity and/or interest in voting in the upcoming 2018 elections).

-         As I said in 2013 – 2014, the County Executive race is one where the Democratic candidate can win with up to 58% of the vote, and the Republican candidate can win with up to 52% of the vote.  His path was narrower but Kittleman ran in a favorable GOP cycle.  Despite the increased Democratic registration since then, Kittleman enjoys incumbency in a (generally but far from universally) OK economy.  And 2018 (like 2014) is a non-presidential election cycle, where Democratic turnout tends to be lower. Perhaps frustration with Kittleman’s Republican Party will help send more Ds to the polls and lead more Unaffiliated (read: Independent) voters to vote D.  That said, I will stick with that 58% D – 52% R range from the last cycle.

-         Putting myself in their shoes, I would be mildly pleased with the findings if I was Ball and I would be slightly nervous if I was Kittleman.  In short, it was a good day for Dr. Ball.

In solidarity.

Withdrawn

The title seems fitting, in light of the number of individuals who filed to run for public office in Howard County in the 2018 election cycle but, for one reason or another, withdrew.  Reviewing the candidate lists, the differences between HoCo and MoCo again leap to the fore.

Barring significant shakeups and with a handful of notable exceptions, most of the action will occur in the General Election with the County Executive and First County Council District races head-lining the local contests.  As of this writing, the only question in the Democratic CE primary is: can Harry Dunbar top his 21.5% showing from 2006 when he ran against Ken Ulman for the D Nomination? On paper and in the present environment, someone running on an anti-incumbent, “slow growth” platform could pull 30% - 35% of the vote in the Democratic primary but the current author does not believe Dunbar is the ideal vehicle for anti-development sentiments.  In a head-to-head, it is challenging to envision Dr. Ball securing less than 75% against Dunbar.

The Third County Council District is interesting as four top-flight Democratic candidates are in the field.  One made an unfortunate college choice, and another still reads more Annapolis than anything else, but I am nit-picking. This will be the local race to watch on Primary Election Night, with a winner likely to emerge with around 35% of the vote, none of the four should finish with under 15%.

My home County Council district, the Fourth, is again the scene of a contested primary.  Alphabetically, the legitimate Democratic candidates are Cynthia Fikes and Deb Jung.  There is someone named Ian Bradley Moller-Knudsen who filed but this person may not exist in any recognizable dimension.  I will, most likely, write about my choice on or around March 1.  It is imperative for these candidates to focus on salient issues:  most notably Education and Quality of Life (insofar as the two are distinct).  Yes, the former is a given and the latter encompasses many facets (infrastructure, environment, jobs, safety, social justice, etc…).  The candidate who wins will have a narrative that best reflects and addresses these concerns and will offer up reflective, practical, progressive, and accessible solutions.

Turning to the state legislative campaigns:

I will write about District 9 later.   In the meantime, there is no Primary action in D12 (somewhat disappointingly) and while there is much that could be said about D13, the only item of immediate interest is the emergence of someone who reads like a perennial candidate.   

So there is the wisdom – conventional or otherwise – as I see it.  I will close the blog for 2017 with some words from Robert Burns:

“Then let us pray that come it may,

(As come it will for a' that,)

That Sense and Worth, o'er a' the earth,

Shall bear the gree, an' a' that.

For a' that, an' a' that,

It's coming yet for a' that,

That Man to Man, the world o'er,

Shall brothers be for a' that.” 

In solidarity.

Prelude to a Prelude

Greetings HoCo Readers.

So now that I have the voice of Bill Hader in my head, intoning the words in a TimeLife Announcer persona, "The music...of John Denver..." I am far too mellow to re-visit the 2018 Election Preview.  Tranquility is a scarce commodity, so I will ride this train until the tracks end.

The trouble with the Preview is that it means naming names.  That leads to assessing strengths and weaknesses.  With multiple friends, acquaintances, and non-bitter enemies considering public office in the next cycle, I am loathe to delve into such critiques.  Not during this Holiday Season, not after this long and yet unfinished year.

I will say this, in terms of the County seats upon which I am likely to focus (blog coverage-wise) in 2017-2018, I would say they are, in precisely the following order:

1) County Council District #4.  With a strong probability of a multi-candidate field (as is the likely scenario for all open Council seats), I am most concerned about my home district.  I want a good, smart, progressive, and electable Democrat to emerge as the nominee.  Someone who is running for a Greater Purpose.  I know some very interesting folks who are looking at this seat,  some who I don't know as well, and one or two complete non-starters who need to ask themselves, "am I doing this to promote the common good or am I just on a massive ego trip?" Unfortunately, those in the last group tend to lack that measure of self-awareness.

2) County Council District #1.  Big Jon W. in the only legit swing Council District.  If re-elected, as he should be since he has been an excellent, grassroots-focused, and very practical Good Government public servant, he will be the sole returning member of the Council.  The partisan breakout of the First would appear to invite a top shelf, or at least second tier, R opponent.  So I will probably write about this race a fair amount.

3) County Executive. To be honest, i am just not that focused on the County race that is likely to draw the most attention in 2018.  Oh sure, I could go on about the Trump/Kittleman Republican Party, but is my heart into it at the moment?  Nope.  Perhaps post-Announcement(s).

4) (tie) County Council Districts #2 and #3.  Some interesting potential candidates for both seats.  For now, see my tagline.

6) The Board of Education (4 seats).  As of this writing, I have no idea if all four up for re-election will run again, or if no one will.  My assumption is that two will.  If some interesting challengers leap into the fray, I may spend some time on the BoE, especially when forum season rolls around.

7) County Council District #5.  Wake me up in 2022.

That will do it for today.  I hope everyone has a Happy New Year!

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Taking Names

Due to (primarily) professional and (partially) personal circumstances, I haven’t been able to focus on local events of late.  So here is a short missive:

Sheriff James Fitzgerald has got to go.  I read the report.  If only 10% of the allegations are true, that should be sufficient for him to vacate the office.  He has lost the moral authority to lead, and should step down immediately.

On another issue, Mike Smith, perhaps gearing up for another spectacular failed run for the Board of Education, crossed the line in his recent testimony before the Howard County BoE.  He should be ashamed of himself.  Should he decide to seek public office again, this blog might decide to focus a fair amount of time and attention on his candidacy.  Such a campaign would probably not enjoy that level of scrutiny.  Speaking of 2018, I probably already have five posts on the sundry limitations of Christine O’Connor.  That is just scratching the surface.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

So Here’s the Deal: A Preview, a Review, and an Update

Preview:

First, I would like to thank everyone who submitted names for consideration for local 2018 races.  I deeply appreciate the thoughtfulness and enthusiasm of those who offered up some possible candidates.

The good news:  dozens of names rolled in and while I believe the information largely aligns with what passes for common knowledge, there are some intriguing individuals and scenarios being floated.  Informed wisdom or wild speculation? You decide…eventually.

The bad news:  this post will have to wait.  I don’t want to run the risk of my 2018 post being a distraction, even in the slightest, from the important 2016 election.  Game 1 of the double-header is well underway, I don’t want to start thinking too much about Game 2 now.

What I can do is, at some point, and most likely in August, list the number of candidates who are connected with a particular race, perhaps even including their party affiliation (for the non-BoE races).  No names or other identifying information will be provided…yet.  The full post, with all of the tantalizing details (and initial analysis?), will be posted in mid-November.

Review:

So I ordered my copy of Adam Gordon Sachs’ book, “Don’t Knock, He’s Dead: a Longshot Candidate Gets Schooled in the Unseemly Underbelly of American Campaign Politics” off of Amazon a few days ago.  As you may know, he ran for Delegate in Maryland’s 12^th House District in 2014.  

It is three parts campaign dairy, one part policy tract, one part biography, and one part of musings on politics as it is practiced, nationally and in Maryland, in the modern era. 

As a big fan of the political campaign journal genre, I quite enjoyed Sachs’ tome.  There are so many candidates for state legislature, yet one rarely has the opportunity to hear their stories. 

Clocking in at around 340 pages, it is a surprisingly quick read.  The chapters are largely short and story-driven, this is a good beach book.

There are, unsurprisingly, a number of familiar names in his narrative, including this author.  If you like reading about local personalities and issues, then I highly recommend “Don’t Knock, He’s Dead.”

There was one editorial decision I found curious; he chose to provide sobriquets for candidates.  It isn’t challenging to decipher who is who, if you followed the race.  Some nicknames are complimentary, others less so.

I suppose I should disclose that I voted for Sachs, along with two others, in the vote-for-no-more-than-three lively multi-candidate Democratic primary election.  And I wrote about his campaign, as did other bloggers who are also mentioned in Sachs’ work.

Overall, this is the kind of book that makes me think Mr. Sachs is unlikely to seek elective office in the future.  His observations and anecdotes will amuse some and infuriate others.  It reads like an honest account of his perspective on health care, campaign finance, and politics…so, in my opinion, it’s worth picking up.

Update:

Between 1999 and 2015, I held two jobs.  Over the past 20 months, I shifted from a decade of self-employment as a pollster and strategic communications counselor to an SVP role with a global market research agency back to heading up my own communications and research firm (along with a very, very brief stint in the non-profit world).  Beginning on August 1, I will be assuming the role of Managing Director, North America of a media analysis company (details to follow).   I do not yet know what this means in terms of this blog.  I imagine my posting frequency might be somewhat less than it is now; and I may focus more on HoCo as opposed to national issues which, based on my page view counts, is probably fine by my readers.  Do I still plan on covering Election ’18? Absolutely.  Will I be talking about local issues? Of course.  Will some articles focus on Slats?  I can’t imagine otherwise.  

As long as I can locate the proper balance between serving some form of public good, while having a creative outlet for personal expression, I believe this blog will continue to exist, in one form or another, for some time.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

Interaction and the Great Mentioner

Yes, I have a 2016 presidential campaign update kicking around.  But the center point is not yet fully formed, so that angry piece will have to wait.   Fun is in scarce supply these days, so let’s go in that direction instead.

I was planning on posting something on the ’18 cycle in November or December of this year, but with some folks already, “exploring” 2018 options locally, why wait?

So here are the rules. If you know someone, or think you know someone, who might seek elective office in 2018, in a district that includes in whole, or in part, Howard County, email me a) their name, b) the office they might seek, c) the district where they might run, and d) their party affiliation (if appropriate).  I will not disclose the names of the individuals who provide me with this information, so you will enjoy anonymity.  Want to float someone else’s name?  Great.  Your own name? Fine.  At this point, I want to aggregate the potential candidates for the many local races that will occur in 2018.

Eventually, meaning when I am darn good and ready, I will post an early look at the races of greatest interest, where I will list all, some, or none of the names I have received.  Perhaps I will offer up some initial thoughts & analysis on the potential candidates and the districts/campaigns in which they might be involved. 

So feel free to email me some prospective candidates, jasonabooms@gmail.com works best.   Come on you HoCo political junkies, time to send up those trial balloons.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

     

 

So What's Next? '16/'18 Edition

Now that Maryland’s 2016 Primary Election is in the firm and unforgiving grasp of the past, shrewd Howard County political observers are now focused on the Long Slog to the General Election…not only for the importance it has in and of itself, but also as a harbinger for 2018 (and beyond).

At the precinct level, there were some quirky voting patterns evident in the 2014 returns.  Were they the by-product of a weak Democratic gubernatorial candidate? Second presidential term, mid-term fatigue with the party that holds the White House?  A local Republican Party that is showing signs of life in not just the West but in the swing First County Council district and generally reliably Democratic Columbia?  Was 2014 a once in a decade (or generation) event, or a sign of votes to come?

Thought experiment.  Trump is so idiosyncratic, it would be difficult to construe a Trump victory in Howard County in November to mean that we are on the precipice of a local liberal/conservative realignment.  Even if he obtained a majority of the local vote, and managed to win election to the Presidency, Trump would have plenty of time between January 20, 2017 and November 2018 to completely wreck the GOP brand.  In such a scenario, the over/under for County Executive Allan Kittleman to call for a 2020 primary challenge to the Donald would be June 30, 2018.  But I am getting ahead of myself.

That said, with the County Exec up for re-election, multiple state legislative and Board of Education races of interest, and four open County Council seats in the ’18 cycle, you better believe that local operatives, activists, and power brokers will spend many chilly November nights pouring over the ’16 Official General Election Results data, searching for portents that will inform their decision-making processes.  

Amidst all of this uncertainty, all we can rely upon is mercurial human nature itself. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.