Elevate This…

The fact of the matter is that Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman wants it both ways.  He wants to latch onto the (relatively) progressive legacy of (some) of his family while still retaining the R-label, so he can secure his base…which is virulently pro-Trump.

Now, F-list minions like C.O. [whose full name is not important, at all], who would not have been entrusted to fetch the coffee of GOP backbenchers in the ‘90s, may try to spin it otherwise (and poorly, like a hack) …but the brutal reality is that if Kittleman really were truly independent-minded, he would leave the GOP and run as an independent in 2018.

Party affiliation is a window into one’s values.  I quit the GOP in the early 2000s for several reasons.  First and foremost, it had become abundantly clear that the liberal wing (here is looking at you, Governor Milliken) was clearly not aligned with the Republican Party of the Bush 43 era.  The “religious” conservatives along with the neo-cons had a lock on the party.  If you were progressive, there was only one honest choice, and that was to join the Democratic Party (or an organization even further to the left, but that is by-the-by).

So now, the GOP, the party of the “malefactors of great wealth” (a phrase employed by Teddy Roosevelt, a Republican for whatever that is worth) is now whining about certain campaign finance issues.  To that, I say let’s take a close look at who is giving $ to the Kittleman campaign.  What is it they want?  And who is getting paid?  These are all useful and pressing questions.

Let’s face it, based on the State of the Union, the Republican Party is a wholly owned subsidiary of Trump Inc.  Kittleman needs to be held to account for maintaining his allegiance to a party that decided to sell what remained of its soul to a deranged real estate "mogul" who has no business being anywhere near 1600 Pennsylvania.  Which begs the question: who does Kittleman truly put first? The county or his party?

In solidarity.

     

HoCo Executive Survey – Topline Observations

As a pollster/strategic communications counselor, I will probably be writing about survey research frequently this year.  Here are my thoughts on this new HoCo Exec Poll. 

-          If Calvin Ball (D) is down only 3% against Allan Kittleman (R) on an initial head-to-head ballot test, despite Kittleman leading on Name Identification by a whopping 41% margin (87% to presumably approximately 46% based on the data reported), then Ball is quite well-positioned to expand his electoral base.

-          Statistically, they are in a dead heat right now.

-          This poll indicates that Kittleman (at 42%) is far closer to his ceiling than Ball (at 39%).

-          It would have been better to release the results in mid-December.

-          I am not a huge fan of automated phone surveys conducted for political campaigns. I greatly prefer live interviewer studies.  Yes, they are more expensive, but they are worth it, especially if the interviewers are well-trained in data collection methods and best practices.

-          Sean Murphy, HoCo’s answer to Stephen Miller, tried to launch an attack, but he stumbled. Not exactly an A-game message.   Sade was not singing about him, as he is not a Smooth Operator.

-          I would love to see the geographic breakouts.  Assuming the study was conducted proportionate-to-probability, the subsample sizes for that race from each of the Council Districts are large enough to yield statistically significant data, albeit with a high(er) margin of error compared to the overall MoE (4% at the 95% level of confidence).

-         Would be great to see how the 19% Undecided broke out (by ideological affinity, by partisan affiliation, by geography, by gender, by race, by age, and by voting propensity and/or interest in voting in the upcoming 2018 elections).

-         As I said in 2013 – 2014, the County Executive race is one where the Democratic candidate can win with up to 58% of the vote, and the Republican candidate can win with up to 52% of the vote.  His path was narrower but Kittleman ran in a favorable GOP cycle.  Despite the increased Democratic registration since then, Kittleman enjoys incumbency in a (generally but far from universally) OK economy.  And 2018 (like 2014) is a non-presidential election cycle, where Democratic turnout tends to be lower. Perhaps frustration with Kittleman’s Republican Party will help send more Ds to the polls and lead more Unaffiliated (read: Independent) voters to vote D.  That said, I will stick with that 58% D – 52% R range from the last cycle.

-         Putting myself in their shoes, I would be mildly pleased with the findings if I was Ball and I would be slightly nervous if I was Kittleman.  In short, it was a good day for Dr. Ball.

In solidarity.

Ball In

Yesterday was a rather challenging day for reasons which I will not disclose here (not wanting to bore you, dear reader, with my trials and tribulations). 

Before I delve into Dr. Calvin Ball’s double-plus-un-shocking announcement, allow me a moment to talk about Lisa Kim’s cheap and snide comments about “the character of the community” as posted in a Howard County Facebook group.  Personally, I found her Trump-esque jeremiad against rental properties to be off-putting.  I am not precisely certain why she chose to inveigh against those who aren’t seeking to purchase homes, which include many young adults as well as working class families, but the underlying tone is ugly. I hardly believe that rhetoric calling for the functional equivalent of a wall around Columbia is representative of Howard County values.  She, in her capacity as a candidate for County Council, needs to explain her stance and, in probability, apologize.  We in the Fightin’ Fourth deserve better.

Turning now to Dr. Ball’s launch of his campaign for County Executive, it was a rather subdued event.  With hundreds of friends, family members, colleagues, acquaintances, hangers-on, politicos, neighbors, and others gathered in the grand room at Kahler Hall, I expected the energy level to be more pronounced.  For those anticipating red meat, it was mostly pescatarian fare. 

There were some individually solid lines and turns-of-phrases in his speech, including his thoughts on Howard County as a “beacon of love” and this being a “people’s campaign.”  His reminder that we must think about, and advocate for, those among us who are struggling, those who have not yet secured their “slice of utopia” (to borrow a phrase he employed last night) was precisely what this lefty wanted to hear, and rightfully so. 

Dr. Ball’s speaking style is mellow/cerebral.  I wasn’t expecting a fist-pounding, rafter-shaking oration.  That said, as someone who constantly scanned the room, I could not help but feel as though the assembled wanted to be stirred, charged, “fired up and ready to go,” if I must use that phrase, more than they were.  I didn’t get a sense that people were ready to charge through a brick wall following his summation.  Optimistic? Sure.  Intellectually inspired? More likely than not. Emotionally energized?  Time will tell.   

One of the major applause lines centered on running a positive campaign.  Consistent with the candidate, I can visualize a Ball-for-County Executive campaign adhering to the “Choose Civility” precept.  That said, when the crunch time comes and Team Kittleman and their allies decide to start throwing elbows (and some already have), I hope that Team Ball’s orientation towards “the nice” won’t impede their ability to embrace “the tough.”  In the fight for progressive values, sometimes it takes more than hugging it out.

In solidarity.

A Waste of Time

Two thoughts on a theme – National first and Howard County-specific second:

-        The 2020 Democratic presidential field should be bereft of candidates who sought the office previously.  Invigorated blood is what is needed. Sorry Joe, Hillary, and Bernie.  Grab a seat, Martin. The last three Democrats to win the White House were all first-timers when they sought the nomination (’76, ’92, and ’08). Most of the folks who ran before (and whose names are bandied about as possibilities in 2020) are hauling about heavy baggage, fairly acquired or not.  We can’t waste time fighting old wars.  That said, I am certain we will see a doomed-to-failure sequel from someone.  Unfortunately for them, and the electorate.

-        Turning from national to HoCo news, I am getting more than a little irked at the namby-pamby-ness of the Invisible Campaign for County Executive.  I recognize that September is the time when this battle is likely to be joined but I am seeing Kittleman dominate the earned media space this summer.  It reminds me of how the Clinton re-election effort, oh, excuse me, the DNC spent the entire summer prior to the ’96 GOP National Convention beating the ever-loving tar out of the Dole campaign, defining the Republican nominee before he had a chance to establish his own narrative.  Folks can’t expect to win in ’18 just because they have a D next to their name.  Democrats in HoCo need to roll out a progressive platform, provide a solid rationale for their candidacy that appeals to voters, and show an ability to frame a debate. Right now, it feels like an opportunity was lost.  As former British MP Dr. David Owen said about the struggle over the direction of the Labour Party, “it will have to be a fight of passion and of conviction…we are fed up with the fudging and the mudging, we are fed up with slush and mush, we want courage, fight, conviction, and hard work.” 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

For Those Who Care: A HoCo Campaign 2018 Update

Truth be whispered, what the ancient Greeks called “dusthumía” is attempting to gut-punch this author, repeatedly, this morning.  Not that corres-depondence (I see what I did there) equates to bad writing. This essayist is not inclined to punish the readership with twaddle, Heaven forfend!

Nope, just need to keep pressing some keys.  Besides, fuck the ancient Greeks. Couldn’t even be bothered to develop a rudimentary Metro system. If they did, I reckon Pheidippides would still be alive today.

Campaign News:

County Exec Allan Kittleman announced, to the shock of none and the dismay of several, his bid for re-election.  Meanwhile, a straw man sets up another straw man (See: Greg Fox).  Of course, I shouldn’t be too hard on Mr. Fox.  Depending on who emerges out of CC 5, he might be remembered as the Cincinnatus of West HoCo. But I seem to have shifted to the Romans, so let me get back on track.

CC3 is looking like an embarrassment of riches on the Democratic side, with Christiana Mercer Rigby already in the race and Steve Hunt poised to enter the fray very soon.  Should be an engaging primary in the months ahead.

CC4.  As attentive readers know, this is my home district.  Byron Macfarlane recently announced his candidacy. If a poll was commissioned tomorrow, there is no doubt in my mind that he would be the front-runner in the Democratic field by a healthy double-digit margin.  That is not to say that Deb Jung (the other D in CC 4 who has filed to date) is a slouch, she is not.  That is to say that Byron is well-known with a significant reservoir of support throughout the County in general and in District 4 specifically. 

State’s Attorney:  Rich Gibson.  By a country mile.  His website can be found here: http://richgibson.net/

Of course, the Band Known as Team 13 re-filed together.  Such a lovely place, such a lovely slate (with apologies to Mr. Henley, Mr. Frey, and sure, Mr. Felder). 

So what about D12?  Stay tuned…wait…not yet.

Oh yes, I believe the Columbia Democratic Club is having an important meeting tonight.  To those who ask, “Will you be there?” I reply, “Is there an open bar?”  If there are caipirinhas, I am all in. But I have now drifted from Greece to Rome to California to Brazil, so I should stop here.

Stay tuned, as more will follow (?)

From First to Fifth…and some Rs!

Random thoughts:

-       Which HoCo candidate will be brave enough to adopt as their slogan, “54 40 or Fight?”

-       When will the first announcement occur (ok, fine, the second announcement)?

-       What will be the strength of the “R” brand in 2018? Will local GOPers be running towards or away from Trump?  How fast/how near or far?

-       Who will win the Game of Thrones? (the smart money is on Sansa Stark)

-       Situating Monie, is she indeed “in the middle?” Discuss.

-       Will the Republicans bother putting up a candidate in the Fourth? 

-       Who will deliver their announcement speech entirely in the Mid-Atlantic accent?

Enough of that.  I have a table full of brass tacks and it’s time to get down (to them).

Among Democrats:

In the First District, assuming that Jon Weinstein runs for re-election (a safe bet), I don’t think he is likely to face a serious primary challenge.  Lisa Markovitz, of the “People’s Voice,” would lose, badly, in a primary.  She may opt to run as a Republican or perhaps as an Independent I suppose. I believe she will channel her energies elsewhere, either through her PAC or by seeking another office.

The Fifth District is probably eight years away from being competitive.  With that in mind, this author recognizes the importance of fighting the good fight.  Dr. Zaneb “Zee” Beams would be the best option as the standard-bearer for the Democratic Party.  She is incredibly smart and is knowledgeable on a host of salient issues (including, but not limited to, education and health care).  Question: will she be able to ignore what some damn fool blogger says when they discuss communications styles?  Time will tell. Seriously, she should run. 

Whoa, wait, slow down you move too fast. What about the Republican County Council candidates?  Excellent query fictitious questioner.  It’s like you know my every move.  I received very few R names.  I assume it is because they fear the Voice of Truth.  But placing that aside, I know a former Republican Congressman who would sit down and meet with his opponents over a cup of coffee at the outset of the campaign.  It didn’t always establish a more civil tone, but it helped the candidates see each other as human beings.  Frankly, I don’t know why more folks haven’t reached out to this author in this manner.  Oh sure, I am going to write what I am going to write…and God knows I can’t control Slats.  That said, I am less likely to let fly via my blog if I think you are a 1) decent person, 2) with genuinely held beliefs, and 3) don’t possess antediluvian views. 

My mother, being a salt of the Earth Michiganian (note: do not call me a Michigander, I am not a duck) often says, “if you can’t say anything nice, don’t say anything at all.”  She also reminds me to “never put anything in writing,” so I don’t always heed her advice, clearly.  That said, here is what I have heard on the GOP side for all of the County Council Districts:

District One:

Kevin Forrest Schmidt.  Ran a close race in a competitive district in ‘14.  I think he hit his high water mark last time around.

Christine O’Connor.  I believe she is both a Republican and a resident of the 1^st.  She has some strength here, as witnessed by her electoral showing in multiple precincts in Eastern HoCo in 2014 (albeit for a non-partisan race).  She may decide to run for Council as opposed to seeking re-election to the Board of Education.   

District Two:

Reg Avery.  Pass.

District Three:

FIVE names, count ‘em.  This one might be interesting.  I don’t believe the Republicans can win in the Third but there are some serious people whose names are being floated, especially the first three:

Dennis Schrader

Diane Wilson

Susan Garber

Jimmy Williams

Chris Yates

District Four:

Crickets.

District Five:

Actually this is intriguing as well.  I’ve heard five names:

Vicky Cutroneo.  I don’t know her that well but I thought she ran a solid campaign for the Board of Education.  She was responsive to my candidate questionnaire and seems like a nice person overall.  I may have cost her support in a GOP primary just now, my apologies.

Chris Oxenham. Next.

A “Kittleman offspring” was how it was first floated to me. No joke.  I am assuming Haley is the Kittleman in mind.  She is an educator (a plus in the Booms household) and I hear good things about her.     

Frank Mirabile.  If he secures the GOP nomination, this clown shoes will be a frequent topic of discussion on Spartan Considerations.

David Yungmann.  Submitted without further comment.

So what is next?  When I have the time:  a look at the Board of Education…and I might just combine this with people whose names are mentioned but not in connection with a specific office. 

Stay tuned, as more will follow.