Kasemeyer: Vulnerable in a Contested Primary?

First, Happy Presidents’ Day.  C-SPAN released their 2017 Survey of Presidential Leadership.  For the first time since C-SPAN began their rankings (2000 being the premiere year, and 2009 being the second), John Tyler slipped behind William Henry Harrison. (39^th and 38^th respectively).  This is mockery and a sham.  Say what you will about the miserable Confederate bastard, he faced down a surly Cabinet and insisted that he was, in fact, President upon the passing of Harrison.  Not “Acting” not still “Vice President,” but the full deal with all of the powers of the Office.  This set an important precedent.  For that, he deserves to finish ahead of Old Tippecanoe.  Slightly ahead.

Turning to the “just for fun” 12^th State Legislative District survey I recently fielded, it is vital to recall that it is not statistically valid.  It may, in fact, possess just a hint of directional value.  I made this clear from the outset so don’t come whining to me about it being too small a sample or not methodologically grounded or some similar gripe.  Go buy a Natty Boh and weep in it.

A total of 19 individuals participated in the study, hopefully all according to the rules (only one vote per person, must be registered voters who reside in the 12^th and plan on voting in the 2018 Democratic State Senate Primary Election).

The precise question verbiage was:

“Looking ahead to the 2018 Maryland State Senate Democratic Primary Election in the 12th Legislative District, would you prefer the Democratic nominee to be Ed Kasemeyer or someone else?”

The results are: 

Someone Else        63%

Ed Kasemeyer        37%

Something tells me that if I wrote this question for District 13, and the match-up was between Senator Guy Guzzone and “someone else,” Guzzone would have been the preference of 75%+ of the respondents (assuming a similar sample size and composition).

So what does this mean?  Perhaps absolutely nothing.  But maybe everything (as far as the known Universe consists of slices of two Maryland counties).  I think it means that a populist/progressive Democrat, with sufficient resources, could give Senator Kasemeyer a serious primary challenge.  At the risk of being reductionist: an outsider-y populist might play quite well in Baltimore County while someone more to the Left of Kasemeyer could appeal to the liberals who comprise a healthy percentage of the Democratic vote in Howard County.

In short, if Senator Kasemeyer wishes to seek re-election, he cannot take his base for granted.  Those numbers (albeit from a sample as large as two focus groups) are reminiscent of any one of a number of long-term incumbents who aren’t as connected with the grassroots as they should be.

Definitely something worth watching.

Stay tuned, as more will follow.

  

  

A Senator from Howard County?

I had planned on writing an article entitled “Lurching Towards Decrepitude” but it was about my 2001 Honda. 

Senator Barbara Mikulski is undeniably made of far sterner stuff.

Mikulski has been raising principled heck for decades.  She has entered the pantheon of Maryland institutions.  Elected and returned to the U.S. Senate five times by the voters, she has served the nation and state honorably.  While her vim clearly remains of the high-octane variety, she knew when it was time to begin the denouement.  Nicely done, Senator.

Over the coming days and weeks, there will be numerous pieces that extol – in detail – her considerable legislative accomplishments, trailblazing career, impact on American politics, etc…

There will also be many articles evaluating potential successors, both Democrats and Republicans, with the latter considering the opportunities for an upset of even greater proportions than the Hogan 2014 victory.  There will be plenty of occasions to read and ponder wisdom – conventional and otherwise.

I will turn my attention, today, to Howard County.  I believe our talent-rich corner of Maryland has, within its borders, multiple potential 2016 U.S. Senate candidates.  And no, I am not referring to the obvious possible contenders who represent parts of our County in the United States Congress…Dutch Ruppersberger, John Sarbanes, and Elijah Cummings.   The five I have in mind all reside in HoCo and include three Democrats and two Republicans. 

In no particular order, they are:

Former County Executive Ken Ulman.  A CE whose term of office was so productive that both of the candidates who ran to succeed him pledged to “continue the progress” made in Howard County over the past several years.  That is quite the testament to his record.  And while he is not universally loved throughout the land, he is widely respected.  He was a solid LG candidate in a tough election cycle and would be formidable as a statewide candidate at the helm of his own campaign. 

State Senator Guy Guzzone.  A thoughtful policy wonk, he has made his mark in local and state government.  While Ulman has more of a hard-charging approach, Guzzone’s more affable style could be an even greater plus with voters across the whole of Maryland.   Given that he has just been elected to the State Senate, the question remains if he, at this juncture, would want to shift from Annapolis to Washington D.C.

Former County Councilmember Courtney Watson.  A dedicated public servant with a solid resume for higher office, she encountered decidedly unfavorable political winds in 2014.   That said, Watson demonstrated an admirable tenacity and, importantly, impressive fundraising abilities. Like Guzzone, she would have to be considered a relative long-shot for the nomination, but she has the skills to be a fine U.S. Senator.

County Executive Allan Kittleman.  In all likelihood, he would be the Maryland Republican with the best profile for a statewide effort in ‘16.  One would have to assume Kittleman will be focused on his current job, with an eye on a re-election bid in 2018, but the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other heavy-hitting GOPers might push for him to consider the open seat…if they truly believe that Maryland could be competitive in a presidential election year (an unlikely proposition). 

Lieutenant Governor Boyd Rutherford.  Why not?  He was a decent LG candidate with non-shabby credentials in the public and private sectors.   The Republicans could certainly field far worse candidates than Rutherford. Put that on a bumper sticker.

Am I omitting the names of a couple of accomplished Howard County individuals who could run a credible campaign for the United States Senate?  Sure.  Why? Because some are wrapping up their careers in public service while others appear to be quite focused on other offices, challenges and/or pursuits.  

Stay tuned, as more will follow.